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  • Topic 3 Review Packet - Prob and Dist

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    59 vues14 pages

    Topic 3 Review Packet - Prob and Dist

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    Topic #3 fevew Probal ‘Terms and Rules You need to know all these terms and rules and be able to apply then, Your book has a good source of exercises and this packet supplements that. Probability — the study of random phenomena. The probability of any outcome of a random phenomenon is the proportion of times the outcome would occur in a very long series of repetitions. ‘The probability of an event is a number from 0 to 1 inclusive. Probability 0 Probability 0.5 Probability 1 It cannot happen | As likely to happen as not__| It must happen Sample Space - the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment with random outcome Example: Experiment: rolling a die: Sample space = {1,2,3,4,5,6} Since the sample space is everything that can occur, adding the probabilities of everything in the sample Space must add up to 1. Event: an outcome or outcomes in a sample space: Example: Experiment: rolling a die. Event: result is even number of ways the event can occur Probability of an event; ———————________________ 7 number of members in the sample space Example: Event: rolling a die, Probability (rolling an even number) Multiplication principal: If you can do a task in m ways and a second task in n ways, then the number of ways that both tasks can be done is ax b ways Example: Events; Rolling a die then tossing a coin. The number of elements in the sample space is 6(2) = 12. Complement of an event: ‘The complement of even A is the event that A does not occur: Formula: P| Example: Experiment: Rolling a d joint events: Two events A and B are disjoint (sometimes called mutually exelusive) if they have no ‘outcomes in common and can never happen simultaneously. This can be shown in the Venn Diagram below, Notice that 4 and B have nothing in common. Example: A cooler contains 20 bottles made up of 8 Cokes, 5 Pepsis and 7 waters, The Probability of choosing a Coke ot Pepsi is 24 5.13. 20 20 20 Formula: P(A or B)= P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) General Addition rul If two (or more) events are not disjoint the above formula doesn’t work. The rule Formula: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)- P(A and B) ‘The Venn Diagram below shows this relationship: If we simply add the probabilities, we will be adding the middle section twice, So we have to subtract one of them. ah) Example: In a class, there are 12 boys made up of 8 Seniors and 4 Juniors . There are also 8 girls, made up of 3 Seniors and 5 Juniors, Find the probability of choosing a boy or a Senior. Note that choosing a boy and choosing a Senior are not disjoint (they can occur simultaneously). So the 12 8 15 3 20° 20°20" 20° 4° Probability of choosing a boy or a senior = P(Boy) + P(Senior) — P(Senior boy A chart best shows this relationship: Bo Girl Total Senior 8 3 11 Junior 4 5 9 Total 12 8 Independence: Two events are independent if knowing one occurs doesn’t change the probability of the other occurring. This is the non-mathematical definition. Example: Tossing one coin and then another coin are independent events. The result of the second coin toss has nothing to do with the results of the first coin toss. Proving independence is difficult. For instance is making 2 first foul shot? Arguments? cond foul shot in basketball independent of the Mathematical way of proving independence: If two events are independent then P(A)- P(B) = P(A and B) Also, if P(A)- P(B) = P(A and B), then the two events are independent: This is called the mathematical rule. If events are independent, to find the probability of them all happening, you may multiply the probabilities. Example: In the problem above, are choosing a Senior and choosing a boy independent? Ifso, P(Senior)- P(Boy) = P(Senior boy): 33 # .40 so events are not independent 20 20° 20 Choosing a boy influences the probability of choosing a Senior. Conditional Probability: The probability of one event happening, given that another event has happened. The way this is written is P(B/ A) which means the probability of B occurring given that 4 occurred. Again, let’s use this example: _ Boy Girl Total] Senior 8 3 im Junior 4 5 9 Total 12 8 20 To find the P(Boy |Senior) (the probability of choosing a boy given that we chose a senior), we look at the chart and see that there are 11 seniors and 8 of them are boys. So P(Boy | Senior) To find the P(Senior | Boy) (the probability of choosing a Senior given that we chose a boy), We look at the chart and see that there are 12 boys and 8 of them are Seniors. So P(Senior | Boy) = = 2 P(Aand B) The formula for P(B|A)= a . Using this formula: P(Senior Boy P(Boy |Senior) een P(Senior Boy) (Senior | Boy) = P(Boy) 23s AP Statistics Chapter 6 — rete, Binomial and Geometric Rand. Vars. Discrete Random Variables Random Variable A random variable is a variable whose value is a numerical outcome of a random phenomenon, Diserete Random Variable A discrete random variable X has a countable number of possible values. Generally, these values are limited to integers (whole numbers). The probability distribution of X lists the values and their probabilities Value of X XL X2 x3 . Xk Probability pt Pe Ps : Pk ‘The probabilities p; must satisfy two requirements: 1, Every probability py is a number between 0 and 1 2. pit pet... pea 1 Find the probability of any event by adding the probabilities p; of the particular values x; that make up the event. Continuous Random Variable A continuous random variable X takes all values in an interval of numbers and is measurable. The Mean of a Discrete Random Variable Mean Of A Discrete Random Variable Suppose that X is a discrete random variable whose distribution is Value of X xi x % ‘ x Probability Pi 2 Ps “ Pe To find the mean of X, multiply each possible value by its probability, then add all the product k x Dep, sept bt, Combining Random Variables or Linear Transformations; The Expected Value changes as you would EXPECT if to (use the formula given). To find the new standard deviation — always go through the variance (+ or ~ doesn’t change the sd or var, multiplying does). These are the same rules we learned in Chapter 1 The Binomial Distributions A binomial probability distribution occurs when the following requirements are met. 1. Each observation falls into one of just two categories | them “suecess” or “failure.” 2. The procedure has a fixed number of trials — we call this value n, 3. The observations must be independent result of one docs not affect another. 4, The probability of sucess ~ call it p - remains the same for each observation. Notation for binomial probability distribution ‘n denotes the number of fixed trials k denotes the number of successes in the 7 trials P denotes the probability of success 1 —p denotes the probability of failure Binomial Probability Formula P=b= a akan How to use the TI-83/4 to compute omial probabi There are two binomial probability functions on the ‘I-83/84, binompdf and binomedf binompdf is a probability distribution function and determines P(X = k) binomedf is a cumulative distribution function and determines P(X < k) *Both functions are found in the DISTR menu (2"-VARS) Probability | Calculator Command _| Example (assume n =4, p =.8) P(X =k) binompadfin, p, k) P(X =3)= binompdf(A, .8, 3) P(X Sk) _| binomedfin, p, K) P(X $3)= binomedf(4, 8, 3) P(X k) | 1—binomedfin, p, WD P(X > 3)= 1 — binomedfi4, .8, 3) P(X2K) | 1—binomedfin, p, k-l) P(X 23)= — binomedf(4, .8, 2) ‘Mean (expected value) of a Binomial Random Variable Formula: .=np Meaning: Expected number of successes in 7 trials (think average) Example: Suppose you are a 80% free throw shooter. You are going to shoot 4 free throws. For n= 4, p=.8, = (4)(8) =3.2, which means we expect 3.2 makes out of 4 shots, on average The Geometric Distributions A geometric probability distribution occurs when the following requirements are met. 1, Each observation falls into one of just two categories ~ call them “success” or “failure.” 2, ‘The observations must be independent — result of one does not affect another. 3. The probability of success — call itp - remains the same for each observation. 4, The variable of interest is the number of trials required to obtain the first success. * As such, the geometric is also called a “waiting-time” distribution Notation for geometric probability distribution, ‘n denotes the number of trials required to obtain the first success, p denotes the probability of success 1 =p denotes the probability of failure Geometric Probability Formul ne How to use the TI-83/4 to compute geometric probal ‘There are two geometric probability functions on the TI-83/84, geometpdf and geometedf geometpd is a probability distribution function and determines P(X =n) geometcdf is a cumulative distribution function and determines P(X n) 1 = geometedf(p, n) P(X > 3)= 1-geometedf(.8, 3) _| P(X2n) | 1~geometcdfip, n-l) P(X 23)= 1 -geometedf{.8, 2) Not required for the AP, but can be used ifyou know it. "save you some time: Mean (expected value) of a Geometric Random Variable Formula: = Meaning: Pp Example: Suppose you are a 80% free throw shooter. You are going to shoot until you make. pected number of n trials to achieve first suecess (average) For p= 25, which means we expect to take 1.25 shots, on average, to make first Three Basic Rules of Sampling Distributions of Sample Means with Central Limit Theorem Let ¥represent the sample mean of a simple random sample of sample size n from a parent population having population mean 1 and population standard deviation @, The following will then hold true: 1. Ha(campling distribution) =4x(parent population) o. _ (parent population) (sampling distribution) “Jp 3. By the Central Limit Theorem (CLT): When the sample size, n, is sufficiently large, the sampling distribution of sample means, ¥, is approximated by a normal (bell-shaped) curve, even if the parent population distribution is not itself normally distributed. Three Basic Rules of Sampling Distributions of Sample Proportions Let p represent the sample proportion of a simple random sample of sample size n from a parent population having population proportion, p, and population standard deviation, @. The following will then hold true: 1. 5 campling distribution) = parent population) © s (sampling distribution) ~ 3. When the sample size, n, is sufficiently large AND P is not too close to 0 or 1, the sampling distribution of sample proportions, j, is approximated by a normal (bell-shaped) curve. A rule of thumb to use if m is sufficiently large enough, verify both np 2 10 and n(1 ~p) 2 10. Topic III Anticipating Patterns: Exploring Random Phenomena using Probability and Simulation 14, Probability is a measure of how likely an event is to occur. Match one of the probabilities that follow with each statement about an event. 0 0.01 03 0.6 0.99 1.00 a, The sun will rise in the west in the morning b. Thanksgiving will be on Thursday, November 22™ next year. cc. Anevent is very unlikely, but it will occur vary rarely. d. The event will occur most of the time. Very rarely will it not occur. ¢. Give an example of where the other 2 probabilities may occur. 15. What is the formula used for each of the following probabilities: a. Addition Rule b. Multiplication Rule ¢. Conditional Probability 16. The type of medical care a patient receives may vary with the age of the patient. A large study of women who had a breast lump investigated whether or not each woman received a mammogram and a biopsy when the lump was discovered. Here are some probabilities estimated by the study. The entries in the table are the probabilities that both of two events occur; for example: 0.321 is the probability that a patient is under 65 years of age and the tests were done. a, What is the probability that a patient in this study is under 65? ‘Age Under 65 ‘Age 65 and | .365 190 | Over b. Is 65 or over? What is the probability that the tests were done for a patient? That they were not done? 4. Are the events A = (patient was 65 or older) and B= (the tests were done) independent? Were the tests omitted on older patients more or less frequently that would be the case if testing were independent of age? 17. Here are the counts (in thousands) of eamed degrees in the United States in a recent year, classified by level and by the sex of the degree recipient: Bachelors | Master's | Professional [Doctorate | Total Female 616 194 30 16 Male 529 7 44 26 Total a. Ifyou choose a degree recipient at random, what is the probability that the person you choose is a. woman? b. What is the conditional probability that you choose a woman, given that that person chosen received a professional degree? c. Are the events “choose a woman” and “choose a professional degree recipient” independent? How do you know? 18, Consolidated Builders has bid on two large construction projects. The company president believes that the probability of winning the first contract (event A) is 0.6, that the probability of winning the second (event B) is 0.4 and the joint probability of winning both jobs (event A and B) is 0.2 a, Draw the Venn diagram that illustrates the relationship between events A and B. Find the following probabilities: P(A or B) P(A and B) P(A, and Not B) P(Not A, and B) P(not A and not B) 19. What is the difference between discrete and continuous random variables? 20. Let x be the number of courses for which a randomly selected student at a certain university is 21. registered. The probability distribution of x appears in the accompanying table. x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 P(x) 0.02 0.03 0.09 0.25 0.40 0.16 0.05 a, What is P(x = 4)? b. What is P(x <=4)? ¢. Whats the probability that the selected student is taking at most five courses? d. What is the probability that the selected students is taking at least five courses? e. Calculate PG<=x<=6) and P(3

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