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al, Apeejay - Journal of Management Sciences And Technology 2 (1), Feb - 2014
ISSN -2347-5005
Shahin Bano
Megha Pant
Student, PGDM(IT), 2012-14
Apeejay Institute of Technology
Greater Noida
______________________________________________
Abstract: India is a bigger market for automobile industries. Despite a huge potential, this sector has not
performed as expected. This sector suffers from slow growth, sometimes even negative growth has been
reported . This research has made an attempt to figure out the growth of the Indian automobile industry for
the next three years (till 2015-16) using statistical approach . Average growth rate of 6 to 11 percent has been
reported for different categories in car segment.
Keywords : Indian Automobile Industry, Future Trend, Statistical Approach
____________________________________________________________________________________________
I INTRODUCTION
The automobile sector in India has come a long way. This sector has reported high growth rate from 26 percent to
a worst negative growth in some segments during past years. Indian auto sector is one of the most vibrant
industry. The automobile industry is one of Indias major sectors; accounting for 22% of the countrys
manufacturing GDP. The Indian auto industry, comprising passenger cars, two-wheelers, three-wheelers and
commercial vehicles, is the seventh-largest in the world with an annual production of 17.5 million vehicles, of
which 2.3 million are exported [1].Indian Auto market has the potential to dominate the Global auto industry,
provided, a conducive environment is created for potential innovators to come up with new pilot projects.
For the year 2012-2013, automobile sector has shown a sluggish growth citing high ownership costs like excise
duty, cost of registration, fuel costs, road tax and slow rural income growth. Over the next few years, solid but
cautious growth is expected due to improved affordability , rising incomes and untapped markets. All these give a
promising opportunity for automobile manufactures in India. According to Macquaire equities research,
passenger vehicles sales is expected to double in the next four years and growth is anticipated to be higher than
16 percent from the past 10 years [2]. In this paper, we have made an attempt to forecast the sales, production and
export trend for Indian automobile industry over next three years.
II RESEARCH OBJECTIVE & METHODOLOGY
The objective of this research is to find out the growth of Indian automobile industry and to report the forecasted
values for the next three years (2013-14 to 2015-16) using statistical technique (Graphical method with linear
trend line).
III RESEARCH DATA
The data used in this research is the historical data of Indian auto mobile industry from the period 2001-02 to
2012-13 (for the segments of production trend, domestic sales trend and export trend) collected from [3] and
downloaded from the website of Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturing, (SIAM) [4]. Each segment
consists of two categories: passenger and commercial vehicles. Data collected from both the sources have been
summarized in table 1.
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Sarangi et. al, Apeejay - Journal of Management Sciences And Technology 2 (1), Feb - 2014
ISSN -2347-5005
TABLE 1
Historical data (car segment),Indian automobile industry
Year
Productio
n trend in
passenger
vehicle
Productio
n trend in
commerci
al vehicle
Domestic
sales
trend in
passenger
vehicle
Export
trend in
passenger
vehicle
Export
trend in
commerci
al vehicle
675116
Domestic
sales
trend in
commerci
al
vehicle
146671
200102
200203
200304
200405
200506
200607
200708
200809
200910
201011
201112
201213
669719
162508
50088
11870
723330
203697
707198
190682
70828
12255
989560
275040
902096
260114
126249
17432
1209876
353703
1061572
318430
160677
29940
1309300
391083
1143076
351041
170193
40600
1544850
520000
1379698
467882
189347
49766
1,777,583
549,006
1,549,882
490,494
218,401
58,994
1,838,593
416,870
1,552,703
384,194
335,729
42,625
2,357,411
567,556
1,951,333
532,721
446,145
45,009
2,982,772
760,735
2,501,542
684,905
444,326
74,043
3,146,069
929,136
2,618,072
809,532
507,318
92,663
3,233,561
831,744
2,686,429
793,150
554,686
79,944
Year
2013-14
2014-15
Forecasted
Values
3363000
3666000
2015-16
4056000
TABLE 2
FORECASTED VALUES
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Sarangi et. al, Apeejay - Journal of Management Sciences And Technology 2 (1), Feb - 2014
ISSN -2347-5005
The trend line in the figure has an upward motion indicating an increasing growth for next three years. The
forecasted values calculated from the trend line are shown in table 2.
Experiment-2: This experiment deals with the production trend-commercial vehicle data of Indian automobile
industry. The graphical representation and trend line has been shown in the figure-2 below.
Year
Forecasted
Values
2013-14
2014-15
912000
984000
2015-16
1025000
TABLE 3
FORECASTED VALUES
The graph in the figure indicates that this segment has has seen negative growth during the period 2008-09 and
2012-13. Despite this, the trend line forecasts a positive growth for next three years. The forecasted values have
been shown in table 3.
Experiment-3: This experiment deals with the domestic sales trend-passenger vehicle data of Indian automobile
industry. The graphical representation and trend line has been shown in the figure-3 below.
Year
2013-14
2014-15
Forecasted
Values
2820000
3020000
2015-16
3200000
TABLE 4
FORECASTED VALUES
The domestic sales of passenger vehicles has also faced ups and downs during past few years. However, our
prediction indicates positive growth for the coming years. The forecasted values have been shown in table 4.
Experiment-4: This experiment deals with the domestic sales trend-commercial vehicle data of Indian
automobile industry. The graphical representation and trend line has been shown in the figure-4 below.
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Sarangi et. al, Apeejay - Journal of Management Sciences And Technology 2 (1), Feb - 2014
ISSN -2347-5005
Year
2013-14
Forecasted
Values
832000
2014-15
890000
2015-16
945000
TABLE 5
FORECASTED VALUES
The graph indicates a sharp decline in 2008-09 and a negative growth during 2012-13. Our experiments shows a
positive growth for this segment for the next three years. The forecasted values are shown in table 5.
Experiment-5: This experiment deals with the Export trend-passenger vehicle data of Indian automobile industry.
The graphical representation and trend line has been shown in the figure-5 below.
Year
Forecasted Values
2013-14
2014-15
590000
620000
2015-16
690000
TABLE 6
FORECASTED VALUES
Export of passenger vehicles has not achieved much success in past years. This segment has also seen flat and
negative growth. However, the trend line here indicates towards positive growth for next three years. The
forecasted values are shown in table 6.
Experiment-6: This experiment deals with the export trend-commercial vehicle data of Indian automobile
industry. The graphical representation and trend line has been shown in the figure-6 below.
Year
2013-14
2014-15
Forecasted
Values
88000
96000
2015-16
110000
TABLE 7
FORECASTED VALUES
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Sarangi et. al, Apeejay - Journal of Management Sciences And Technology 2 (1), Feb - 2014
ISSN -2347-5005
The negative and flat growth rate of this segment is easily understood from the graph. However, the trend line
indicates a positive growth for the next three years despite a negative growth in the last year. The forecasted
values are shown in table 7.
V CONCLUSION
An attempt has been made to understand and analyze the current and future trend in Indian automobile industries.
Secondary data collected from website and research publications have been used. Forecasted values have been
calculated for the period 2013-14 to 2015-16 using statistical approach. Despite various ups and downs in the
past years, our experiments show positive growth in all segments. The segment wise average forecasted growth
rate for the next three years are given in table 8.
TABLE 8
SEGMENT WISE AVERAGE FORECASTED GROWTH RATE
Segment
7.88
7.23
6.00
6.01
7.58
11.25
VI DECLARATION
This research does not challenge any other works/publications. The results are only indicative and on calculation
basis which reflects the authors view.
REFERENCES
[1]
[2] Anjum Farhat,Buying Behavior and Customer Satisfaction of Hyundai Cars in Hyderabad City, International Conference onTechnology and
Business Management, March 18-20, 2013.
[3] Ray Sarbapriya, Economic Performance of Indian Automobile Industry: An Econometric Appraisal,Business Intelligence Journal,
January 2012, pp 151-162.
[4]
http://www.siamindia.com/
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