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, p12. 61, Beth eeu, BP Statice Review of World ery, 2012, 18 seat tine Bi ney ®152 x 244mm, Introduction to Petroleum 1.87 ‘Table 1.1: Total proved oil reserves by continent 4.56 Global_proved_reserves_are_distributed throughout _the_six continents of the world, }e_Middle Fast dominating. Howeven, as Table 1.1 demonstrates, while total reserves have grown over the last 20 years, the geographical distribution has altered markedly. In 2011 the idle Hast Fel the greatest percentage (48.1 er cent) of total proved reserves, although this was down from 64 per cent in 1991, In 2011 South. and Central America (19.7 per cent) and Africa (8 per cent) increased their percentage over 2001, with South and Central America being the biggest mover, North America’s percentage was 13.2 per cent in 2011 as against 18.2 per cent in 2001. The Asia-Pacific region is poorly endowed with petroleum resources, accounting for only 2.5 per cent of the global proved petroleum reserves in 2011.8 4.87 orate econ ar Sun cu gas changes these percentages over the next decade JA number of countries have the potential for significant uncofventional gis reserves, notably the United States of America and China ‘The International Energy Agency. projects that by 2035 global energy vill. grow by 40 per cent, and 90 per cent of that growth will occur in developing economies, particularly indiaand China. The report suggested that gas could for 25 percent ‘of world energy demand by 2035.*'A report by the US Energy Information Administration estimates a global recoverable shale gas resource of 5760 trillion cubic feet, of which 1069 is in North America, 1404 in Asia 162, Statistics rom British Petroleum, BP Saisie Review of World Energy, 2012,p 18. 68, Bellh Pevoleum, BP Stari! Review of World Energy, 2012p 7. GH, ternational Energy Agency above m2 ee eee ae ee@ —_ TRIMSIZE: 152 x 241mm 187 Petroleum Law in Australia and 396 in Australia.® This is a huge amount. If the United States is able to produce a lot of cheap unconventional gas, this should significantly reduce the amount of petroleum that it imports, and could allow it to export ING to Europe. This could profoundly affect the economic position and strategic importance of the Middle East, and also Russia, It could also have a significant impact on the price of petroleum. 1.58 The Australian Government believes that Australia is well placed to cement a role as a leading energy supplier to the Asian economies to assist their economic development.®” Australia’s energy exports tripled from $24 billion in 2004-2005 to $69 billion in 2010 when they accounted for a third of Australia’s commodity exports. This made Australia the world’s ninth-largest energy producer. Bear in mind that these figures include coal of which Australia is a large exporter. Nevertheless, Australia expects to become the world’s second-largest exporter of LNG, which will see it move up from sixth-largest. At the same time large fields containing crude_oil_are_ becoming increasingly hard to find. Hence, more exploration is being conducted “offshore in.deep water. Ifthe fields are in deep water, the oil is more risky ~and expensive to produce, Some would argue that we have passed the time when global peak oil production occurs. Every year petroleum companies use up reserves through production and face the ongoing challenge of replacing them. It is becoming increasingly hard for them to do that. Petroleum Investment Decision 1.50, As is mentioned above, governments-setting-paliyta-altrct ympanies need_to consider shere their country_fits i ‘market place This is one asped ofa country’ attractiveness fr petroleum exploration. It relates to the likely markets for petroleum discovered there, the demand for petroleum in that market and thecost of gettingiitto market. However, this is not the only factor affecting the attractiveness of a country within the group of those open for investment. Bear in mind that countries ‘may not be open for investment for two main reasons. First, the country jing external investors, or indeed actively discouraging them. Second, if a company cannot insure its people or equipment there, say. because itis in a war zone, the country is effectively closed to that company. 4.60 So what are the factors that will affect a company’s decision to invest in one country rather than another? What will make one country attractive as opposed to another? Clearly the likelihood of finding petroleum is a (65. US Energy Information Adminstration, Wild Shale Gos Resources An lata Asessment of 114 Regions Ouse the Uriel States, 201, chp ea gow aati wordshles> (66. Beth Perla, RP Statin! Review of Work! Ene, 2012, 206, p21 shows exiting ttl bal server of psa 2084 Willon cubic metes (7599.64 TCP) 467. Scethe Department of Revoores, Energy and Turis comment on Energy White Paper 2012, “Austaia’ Energy Transformation,
68 Seeahovene7 eee eestor Or ey@ —_ TRIMSIZE: 152x 241mm Introduction to Petroleum 1.61 00d start. A country which has stronger geological potential for petroleum {xploration and production i going to be more attractive. However if That country is politically unstable or has a history of expropriating foreigners’ _assets, those factors. will be offset against its geological potential at least to-some extent. It is risk and possible return which are the significant underlying factors here. ‘The balange between risk and reward is very difficult to define but is ustially driven by the perceived geological prospectivity of the relevant country. Generally the higher the persived geological prospectivity, the >wer the expected financial reward for exploitation is: The uncertainty in perception of prospectivity narrows as exploration in a country matures. Problems can arise when a host government initially has an overinflated view of its country’s prospectivity, puts in place tough terms for exploration and exploitation, and is then disappointed at the lack of interested participants. 1.61 As commercial enterprises, oil companies are intent on building wealth for their owners. The end point they want to arrive at is having rofitable projects. So they will evaluate each project on the basis of the ill provide and at what risk. They will conduct an econoinic evaltiation. Typically they will do so using a number of measures, including: + Net present value (NPV) is the value of a project, taking the cash inflows and outflows over its life and discounting them to give a present value. This is a measure of the market value of the project and can be ‘compared with its cost, thus showing how much value is created by an investment, Only projects with a positive NPV are normally considered. ‘The rate used for the discount calculation is normally the rate of return that could be earned in the financial markets on an investment with a similar risk. Riskier projects will have to have potentially higher positive cash return to achieve a positive NPV. + Internal rate of return (IRR), in a simple sense, is the annualised effective compounded return. rate of a project.® It is commonly used as an alternative to NPV, Most companies will have a minimum hurdle rate of return, which may also be adjusted for a country’s risk factors, + Payback is the time taken for the project to return the investment made. Making these calculations will require detailed financial models which can only be developed over time as the costs and cash flows ofa project ca clarified. xplpration there willbe no defined _as nothing has yet marek wane ge roe its Many Patent roe less robust estimates of what may be discoverable Nevertheless companies ‘will stil try to estimate that using comparable gedlogical data and projects. ‘They will also take into account broader criteria such as gorporate strategy, ‘geological potential, risk and a comparison of available opportun . he ae at mas thn pea a oa cs ows (bath piv and aga) om ‘a picticalrinvestnent ol 0. 23 soteretomte nent Bas ie €& Etonic. EMAIL@ — TRIMSIZE: 152x 244mm 1.62 Petroleum Law in Austral 4.62 For a considerable period of time the oil company will be spendin money — initially on exploration and appraisal and then on development. It is only when production commences. that it.can start to derive a flow of cash which will give it the prospect of a return. Accordingly most oil companies will have internal processes that they will go through before committing part of their exploration budget to an_area or deciding to__ develop _a project once a_commercial_ discovery has-been made. ‘These processes will ake into account the required investment and the likelihood and timing of payback (as explained above), 4.63 At the exploration stage it will usually be a case of management mittee or head. geologist that. an opportunity is worth pursuing. ‘That opportunity could take a number of forms: entering into an agreement with another company to investigate an area or potential bid for a licence or service contract;” actually bidding for a licence or service contract ona government release; farming- in" to an existing licence or contract; or negotiating a separate arrangement with a host country. Fach of these will have different financial consequences for the company, with an investigation agreement or the preparation of aid at the lower end,Oncea bid is successful, the financial consequences become more significant as there ‘will be expenditure commitments, These increase significantly when seismic exploration has to be conducted or exploration wells drilled. 4.64 At the project level these processes will involve feasibility studies,” including the consideration of applicable risks” and front-end engineering and design. Once the technical, commercial and financial robustness of a project has been tested, the final step is usually called the final investment decision when the company.commits.to spend the money. to.deyelap. By this stage the company should have a well-defined financial model of the ‘project from which itcan calculate its NPV and IRR. 1.65 In the petroleum industry the expression ‘prospectivity’ describes @ country’s potential attractiveness. This isa key factor in deciding whether to invest in a country, whether for exploration or production. This is an expression which some view as restricted to geological potential. One commentator has defined prospectivity more broadly as follows: . the term used to describe a geographical region, a country, a geological basin, or a particular arca within a geological basin, as attractive for exploration for petroleum by reason of its technical attributes (having the likely petroleum geological ingredients of source rock, reservoir, cap rock 70, ‘Tse are wey calle joint bidding wrcement or area of mutual incers prements 71, Farmvins are dele with in Chapter 9. They usualy involve cerning an intrest by meeting ‘xpenditarecommmiteneats fa party oa leehce or contact. ‘72. Onedefnition of anit sty n'a eh and nancial study of project suicient eve ‘of scuracy and dealt allows dein ato whether the projet should proceed’ V Rudeano, Te Mining Valuation Handbook, 2d ed, Wrghtboks, 2004, p 402. Doing al easily study isexpensie Accordingly eommpanies wil usally move to that through a numberof preliminary sages such as coping study aap feasibly 7, There area nar of standard rks tht ae wll considered, They include resourceeseves rid completion sk operating le crrency sk mathe risk envionment isk and plc isk 24 wmeetcuae reamenrmen es ia 3@ — TRIMSIZE: 152x 241mm Introduction to Petroleum 1.69 and favourable structure or structures) as wells favourable legal and fiscal structure so as to generate a commercial return in addition to lying within 4 favourable geopolitical environment. 4.66 Michael Bunter, from whose book this quotation is taken, looks at these in terms of four attribut aud fiscal. host government eying to atc the ik capital of foreign companies will have to have ‘the prospectivity of its petroleum ‘resources ii this broader sense. [he end point is {he ability ofthe investor ‘to make a commercial return on its investment. Another approach is to use the terminology of risk and consider the commonly-used resource investment risks: political risk, resources/reserves risk, completion risk, operating risk, currency tisk, market risk and environmental risk. 4.67 At the core of the exploitation of petroleum is the technical prospectivity or geological potential of an area. It denotes the presen: ‘or absence of the physical co i explore and exploit t terrain, physical conditions, petroleum exploitation, 4,68 Geopolitical or political risk is the risk that an investment’s returns. could suffer as a result of politica a country or }- In Bunter’ view this is really about security. So he poses a number ‘questions including: Is my investment secure? Are the boundaries of my e ‘contract area secure? Is my potential market secure? Is my export route secure within and without the national territory?” For example, if country is offering exploration acreage in an area subject to a boundary dispute its neighbour, with a recent history of armed conflict over the border and the need to build a pipeline through a country controlled by bandits if a discovery is made, this will represent a high degree of political risk, 4.69. Another expression that is closely associated with this area is ‘sovereign risk, ‘This can be regarded as a category of political risk. In | simple language itis the risk that the host country will ‘change the rules of the game’ to the disadvantage of the oil company. The host country can do this in a number of ways: by expropriating the resource; reducing the profits which can be repatriated; incteasing taxation; or changing licence terms, The examples of this are numerous and spread across all countries. The oil company will look at ways to protect itself against sovereign risk There are a number of possible approaches to this, including entering into What is called a stabilisation arrangement with the host country which may provide for security of ttle and agree that there will le resource. 1e geology, ‘accessibility and climate that are suitable for 7A. MBuntersThePromosiow and Licesingof Petroleum Pasectve erage KhwerLaw Intemational, 2002938. 75, Bune abore n 74, 75 | 76. Sovelled developed euntse are not immiene rom thie. So for example, Australia has changed its resoure tration regime at eas twice. Fis by introducing the Pevoleum Resource Rent Tak in 987 and then the Mineral Resource Ren Tain 2012. Mor extreme exanples ane epesented Dy thas cutee which have expropriated pteleum sets, sch as Mex, | 25 ichnical, geopolitical, legal/contractual__ ®@ — TRIMSIZE: 152 x 241mm 1.69 Petroleum Law in Australia bbe no change to the revenue and tax position. Having an internationally acceptable dispute resolution mechanism is an important element of an effective stabilisation arrangement. Another approach is for the oil company to take out insurance against sovereign risk. Increasingly oil companies are looking at the sustainability of their operations and their social licence to operate. These can take into account relations with the people of the host country and can be an important factor in stabilising arrangements with the host country. 4.70 Legal prospectivity (or legal risk) refers to a country’s respect for the cule of lav.” An oil company onduct resource exploration and exploitation within a legal framework. Petroleum. resource legislation has been described as having three purposes: to determine the ‘ownership of the resource before and after its extraction; to regulate the conduct of petroleum operations; and to determine, in conjunction with, fiscal legislation, the sharing of petroleum revenues and income between the state and the licensee or contractor on the other.” ‘The more’stable the legal regime governing the exploration and exploitation of resources, the, jgreater the legal prospectivity of a country or region. 4.71 Fiscal prospectivity is the requirement _of a company to_make a. commercial return on an investment consistent with its risk, to pay. cre and to repatriate a commercial return ina comvertible currency to the country of incorporation.” This fiscal prospectivity is generally look: the host country: royalty and income tax principally for a concession-based regime; and the fiscal terms of the contract in a service contract regime, An cil company will usually factor these issues into its financial model when it comes to an NPV or IRR calculation. A large oil company with a range ‘of possible projects will compare the returns available to it in deciding whether to commit to a project in a country, So host countries need to consider their relative fiscal attractiveness carefully.” 1.72 _ Australia, with its stable government, low inflation, steady economy and effective legal regime, has been regarded asa country with low political riskand high legal prospectivity. The Australian Government has recognised the importance of this, So in introducing its annual release of offshore petroleum acreage, the Australian Department of Resources, Energy and ‘Tourism comments: 77. Bunterabove n 74, pi 78. B Taverne, Petru, Industry and Governments An Inroducion 10 Perleum Regulation, Beomomies ad Goverment ols, 2d dy Welters Kluwer, 2008 9137 79. M Banter, ’© New Approach to Petroleum Licensing’ (2003) (1) Oi Gas and Energy Law Intaligenss chpliwwrgtandol.conogeVsamplesesridesroundup-iS;him> at 29 March 2007 0, Bunter noes number of ators which all fiscal schemes shoul have in commons for example, providing early revenue othe government while rewarding te ol company frit allowing the company to recover he cont quickly ee, See M Bunter, The Pomovion and Licsng of role Prospetve Areage,Kluer La Internationa 7002, 61 weteensonar ren pment Ba eee@ — TRIMSIZE: 152 241mm Introduction to Petroleum 1.78 ‘The Acreage Release is underpinned by Australias stable economic environment and a well-established, objective-based regulatory framework, which secks to balance environmental, social and economic considerations in the development of Australia’s natural resources." However, recent changes to mining taxation, onshore and offshore petroleum regulatory frameworks in Australia and increased community concern relating to onshore unconventional gas exploitation have had an adverse effect on this. Australia is also generally regarded as an expensive place to do business. Its labour and manufacturing costs are high. In looking, at Australias relative attractiveness, however, one thing is clear and that is that circumstances change and with them the risks of doing business in a country and prospectivity. Ownership of Petroleum and the Rule of Capture 1.78 ‘The physical characteristics of petroleum are different from_the hhard rock minerals, such as gold and iron ore, in one important respect. Petroleum is fluid in nature and will travel towards low pressure created bya production well. This is irrespective of property lines on the surface. For those countries which own the petroleum or control its ownership of petroleum through a licensing or contract system, this would seem to be less of a problem. This is because they can determine ownership of the. petroleum, either when itis prodiiced at the wellshead or when itis still underground. Obtaining clear title to petroleum covered by its licence or contract is going to be a significant issue for any oil company seeking to invest in a county. 4.74 It is more of a problem in theory in those countri ‘ownership is tied to ownership of the land above. In the early days of the petroleum indi the United States in the nineteenth century® this created problems when, for example, a well was drilled close to a property boundary on the surface, draining petroleum in the reservoir under the ground below the neighbour’ land. Ownership of the surface also carried with it ownership of what lay beneath the surface,® so the neighbour would own the petroleum under his or her land. How should courts deal with this situation, which could be viewed as the owner of the well taking his neighbour's property? where mineral 1.75. The answer that the courts came up with was the so-called ‘rule of capture, The rule of capture as developed in the courts of the United States is that the owner of land acquires title to the oil and gas which he produces 81, See chuipshwnset govau/esouresupsteam_petoleum>. 482, Thetirt commercially successful wll as del at Tcl, Pennsyvani in 1859 ‘83. In English aad Astaian ay thsi cle the acesion’ principle Te owner ofthe land owns everythingalbove and beneath the surface In Australia this subject two hing fst in sme ‘casey minrals were eservd from the feo tie oo is vigil grants and send egiaion ‘es pated later in some sates giving the sate ownership of petroleum. a ee paler@ — TRIMSIZE: 152.x 241mm Petroleum Law in Australia from wells drilled on hisland*"Thisis one practical solution to the problem, ‘one which has significant implications. It has been described by a number ‘of writers as being of critical importance to the early development of the oil industry in the United States, although it has been encountered in other countries.” First, it clarified title to the petroleum produced from a well Second, it encouraged first. movers to extract as much petroleum from, a ir as quickly as possible, Thus it assisted the rapid developme the fledgling petroleum industry. However, it also encouraged inefficient production, as it resulted in too many wells being drilled, often spaced too close together and the rapid production of easily extracted petroleum instead of the full depletion of the reservoir. ‘The main way in which property owner whose petroleum was being captured by a well on his, neighbour's land could respond was by drilling offset wells on his side of the boundary. The purpose of these offset wells was to protect the owner's Tine by extracting the pet Id the neigl _wells. Of course it Contributed to too many wells being drilled. The rule “pf capture became qualified in the United States by the recognition of reerrelative rights, meaning that the landholders of a common reservoir had rights and duties depending on each other, so it would not be lawful to Jdamage the reservoir by negligent drilling or wasting gas.” 4.76 ‘The principle that the holder of the necessary licence obtains title to petroleum produced from. “his licence area is als Australian petroleum legislation.** ‘This can be viewed as a statutory form of the rule of capture. The impact of this rule has been lessened in Australia in modern times because there is no petroleum in the ground in private ‘ownership, and because of the regulation of its extraction by government in Australia which would not generally permit the drilling of multiple wells, However, it is certainly something that still afects the behaviour of petroleum companies seeking to protect their discoveries or get fitst-mover advantage in relation to a common reservoir. For example, a company ‘which has a well in production is going to think carefully about securing, exploration acreage becoming available next door in case the reservoir extends into that acreage and can be drained by the incomer. Ifon the other hand the company discovers a reservoir crossing boundaries, it may seek to get into production as quickly as possible. ‘The permits and licences required to explore for petroleum and then ‘move into production are examined in Chapter 4. ‘See Brow» Humble Ol Co (1935)126 Tex 296 at 305; Barnard ¥ Monongahela Naural Gas (1907) 216 Pa 658 B10; and PUG Texon Dring (1948) 196 Tex 575. Fora deuiled ueatment ofthis sceT Dantth, Paes Keepers Howth Law of Capture Shapes ‘he Word Oi use, REE Pes, 2010. See BU Texan Dring (1948) 146 Tex 57. (Oko Oi Co v Indiana (1900) US Se for example, OPGGSA 52852) and Chapter 4 BESE ae ene at oor