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ON
MARKET APPRAISAL: MARKET FORECASTING
TOOLS;
DEMAND/SUPPLY ANALYSIS &
FORECAST;
MARKETING SET-UP AND
ORGANISATION
By K. Ramkrishna, General
Manager
Industrial Development Bank of
India
August 25,
2004
INSTALLED
CAPACITY
CAPACITY
UTILISATION
DEPRECIATION
REPAYMENT
SCHEDULE
PRICES OF INPUTS
& OUTPUTS
PROFITABILITY
CONSUMPTION
NORMS
INTEREST
MANPOWER COST
REPAIRS &
MAINTENANCE
SELLING &
ADMINISTRATION
2
Bill Gates
Bert Roberts
Ross Perot
Sam Walton
Mike Harper
Fred Turner
Michael Eisner
John Smale
Robert Goizueta
Roger Smith
Microsoft
MCI
Perot Systems
Wal Mart
Con Agro
McDonalds
Walt Disney
Procter & Gamble
Coca Cola
General Motors
3
MARKET RESEARCH
MODELLING OF THE FUTURE AS AGAINST
ANALYSING THE PAST
ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES
PRICE WILL MATTER MORE & BRAND WILL
MATTER LESS
WIDENING CHOICE DUE TO E-COMMERCE,
BESIDES GLOBALISATION
SIMULATING, PREDICTING & MAPPING
CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR
E-COMMERCE A WAY OF LIFE
4
MARKET RESEARCH
(Contd.)
ROLE OF PRODUCT, PACKAGING & PRICES IN
CONSUMER BUYING DECISIONS
CONSUMER WILL SEARCH FOR COMPARABLE
PRICE OFFERINGS ON THE NET
AVAILABILITY OF SEARCH ENGINES THAT CAN
TRACK COMPARABLY PRICED PRODUCTS IN THE
CYBER SPACE
COMMODITISATION OF SERVICES & NEED FOR
VALUE ADDITION
5
WTO DYNAMICS
WILL IMPACT EVERY INDUSTRY & EVERY ASPECT
OF EVERY INDUSTRY
NEO-DARWINISM - GLOBALISE OR PERISH
GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE INDUSTRY - CRUCIAL
AGREEMENTS BINDING ON ALL MEMBERS
DECISION BY CONSENSUS - ONE MEMBER ONE
VOTE
FAILURE OF SEATTLE MEET
LIMITED INFLUENCE OF DEVELOPING ECONOMIES
ON DECISION MAKING
7
FOCUS OF INDUSTRIAL
POLICY
PRE-LIBERALISATION :
EXPORT ORIENTATION & IMPORT SUBSTITUTION
EMPLOYMENT ORIENTATION
BACKWARD AREA DEVELOPMENT
SMALL SCALE INDUSTRY
SUBSTANTIALLY INWARD LOOKING POLICY
LEADING TO SUBSISTENCE ON AGRICULTURAL
SECTOR & PSU DOMINATED PUBLIC SECTOR
FOCUS OF INDUSTRIAL
POLICYContd.)
POST-LIBERALISATION :
COMMERCIAL ASPECTS ARE THE MAIN
CONSIDERATION.
INVESTMENT DECISIONS DRIVEN BY
COMMERCIAL & GLOBAL
COMPETITIVENESS CONSIDERATIONS.
INTRODUCTION TO COMMERCIAL
APPRAISAL (Contd.)
WHAT IS MARKET APPRAISAL
INTRODUCTION TO
COMMERCIAL APPRAISAL
(Contd.)
WHAT IS A MARKET ?
AN INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENT
PRODUCT
SELLERS AND BUYERS
QUANTITY
PRICE
METHOD AND MODE OF TRANSFER
SETTLEMENTS
11
INTRODUCTION TO COMMERCIAL
APPRAISAL (CONTD.)
DEFINITION OF MARKET DEMAND
12
INTRODUCTION TO COMMERCIAL
APPRAISAL (Contd.)
WHAT DO WE DO IN MARKET APPRAISAL
PRODUCT, END-USE & ITS POSITION ON THE PRODUCT
LIFE CYCLE
MARKET STRUCTURE, CAPACITY, PRODUCTION, MAJOR
PLAYERS
MARKETING STRATEGIES
GLOBAL SCENARIO
COMPETITIVENESS OF DOMESTIC INDUSTRY
PRICING & PRICE MOVEMENTS
PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR & ASSISTED UNITS IN THE
INDUSTRY
FUTURE SCENARIO, MARKET SIZE, PRICING &
13
STRATEGIES
STRUCTURE OF A
MARKET STUDY
14
INTRODUCTION
PRODUCTS AND THEIR APPLICATIONS
MARKET STRUCTURE
GLOBAL SCENARIO
COMPETITIVENESS OF DOMESTIC INDUSTRY
PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR AND ASSISTED UNITS
15
FUTURE OUTLOOK
DEMAND-SUPPLY BALANCE
SWOT ANALYSIS
PROSPECTS FOR THE UNIT
CONCLUSION
16
PRODUCTS AND
THEIR
APPLICATIONS
17
18
MARKET
STRUCTURE
19
MARKET STRUCTURE
20
MARKET STRUCTURE(CONTD.)
BASIS OF INSTALLED CAPACITY
SECTIONAL CAPACITIES
RESIDENT, REACTION & CYCLE TIME
INPUT, PROCESS, THROUGHPUT, TRAFFIC & OUTPUT
ENVISAGED PRODUCT CHARACTERISTICS & MIX
GUARANTEED NORMS OF CONSUMPTION OF RAW
MATERIALS, INPUTS, CONSUMABLES, POWER &
UTILITIES
INSTALLED CAPACITIES IN GENERAL ARE NOT
ADDITIVE
21
22
MARKET STRUCTURE
(CONTD.)
MARKETING STRATEGIES OF MAJOR PLAYERS
PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION
MARKET SEGMENTATION
MARKET DIFFERENTIATION
PRICE DIFFERENTIATION
MARKET SKIMMING AND PENETRATION
RE-CONFIGURING THE SUPPLY CHAIN
24
MARKET STRUCTURE
(CONTD.)
MARKETING STRATEGIES OF MAJOR PLAYERS
(CONTD.)
26
27
28
30
INTRODUCTION TO
COMMERCIAL
APPRAISAL
FUTURE OUTLOOK
32
FUTURE OUTLOOK
ENVIRONMENT FORECAST
DEMAND PROJECTIONS
SUPPLY PROJECTIONS
DEMAND-SUPPLY BALANCE
MARKETING STRATEGIES
33
ENVIRONMENT
FORECAST
34
ENVIRONMENT FORECAST
FORECASTING STAGES
Forecast of
Environment
Industry Forecast
Company Sales
Forecast
35
ENVIRONMENT, FORECAST
& MARKETING STRATEGY
Environment
Forecast
Strategy
36
Monetary Policy
Fiscal Policy and Taxation
Policies for Subsidies and Incentives
Interest Rate Policy
Export and Import Policy
Policy for Industrial/Infrastructure Development
Policy for Foreign Collaboration
Policy for Development
38
39
41
42
43
TEST MARKETING
FACTOR ANALYSIS
CLUSTER ANALYSIS
PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS
DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS
45
Long Term
Secular
(Trend
Component)
Short Term
Cyclical
Seasonal
Irregular or
Erratic
Regular
48
SIMPLE : y=A+B*x
MULTIPLE : y=A+B1*x1+B2*x2+.....Bn*xn
LOG FORM
NON-LOG FORM
49
53
DEMAND FORECAST
REQUIRED CAPACITY
ANTICIPATED CAPACITY
CAPACITY GAP
54
MARKETING STRATEGY
CONCEPTS PRACTICE
55
MARKETING STRATEGY
60
61
Divisibility
Measurability
Substantiality
Accessibility
Responsiveness
62
Quality
ECONOMY
L
o
w
PREMIUM
SUB-STANDARD OR
LOW PRICE LOW
QUALITY
Price
HIT & RUN
Low
H
i
g
h
63
STAR
H
I
G
H
QUESTION
MARK
Market Share
CASH COW
DOG
L
O
W
Growth
LOW
64
66