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CONSTANTINE CARAMANLIS
Press release
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1978 January 1, 00:00 (Sunday)

CONFIDENTIAL
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Affairs--Government; Internal
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Office Origin: -- N/A OR BLANK -Office Action: ACTION SS - EXEC UTIVE S EC RETARIAT,
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1978ATHENS00001_d
UNCLASSIFIED
26868
TEXT ON MICROFILM,TEXT ONLINE
SPEECHES
Type: TE - Telegram (cable)

Archive Status: Electronic Telegrams
DEPARTMENT OF S TATE
From: ATHENS USOECD | GREEC E ATHENS
Markings: Sheryl P. Walter

Declassified/Released US Department
of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar
2014
To: BELGIUM BRUS S ELS | BULGARIA S OF IA |

CANADA OTTAWA | CYPRUS NIC OS IA |
DENMARK COPENHAGEN | FRANC E PARIS |
GERMANY BONN | IC ELAND REYKJAVK | ITALY
ROME | LUXEMB OURG LUXEMB OURG |
NETHERLANDS THE HAGUE | NORTH
ATLANTIC TREATY ORGANIZATION (NATO) |
NORWAY OS LO | PORTUGAL LIS B ON |
RUS S IA MOS C OW | S EC RETARY OF S TATE |
S ERB IA BELGRADE | S PAIN MADRID |
TURKEY ANKARA | U NITED KINGDOM
LONDON | US
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1. PRIME MINISTER CARAMANLIS AND OPPOSITION LEADER PAPANDREOU,
THE MEN WHO SPEAK FOR THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF GREEKS, SEEM TO
AGREE ON ONE THING AT LEAST -- THAT GREECE IS A NATION IN SEARCH
OF AN IDENTITY. GEOGRAPHICALLY ON THE MARGINS OF EUROPE, SPIRITUALLY TRYING TO ACCOMMODATE A PAST WHICH PURSUED ORDER AND
A
FUTURE THAT PROMISES CHANGE, AWASH WITH IMPORTED IDEAS AND VALUES,
GREEKS ARE UNCERTAIN OF THEMSELVES AND THEIR FUTURE.
2. U.S. INTERESTS IN GREECE AND IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN ARE
IN LARGE PART HOSTAGE TO THE OUTCOME OF THIS UNCERTAINTY. GREECE
MAY CHOOSE TO ANCHOR ITSELF IN THE WEST -- A CHOICE WHICH WOULD
SECURE OUR OWN POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND DEFENSE INTERESTS. FOR
GREECE TO MOVE DECISIVELY TOWARDS A WESTERN FUTURE, ITS LEADERS
WOULD HAVE TO OVERCOME HISTORY -- A FORMIDABLE TASK BUT NOT AN
IMPOSSIBLE ONE. BUT GREECE COULD ALSO DRIFT AWAY FROM US AND ACQUIESCE IN THE NEGATIVE EXAMPLES OF ITS PAST -- AN EASIER
CHOICE
BUT SURELY NOT AN INEVITABLE ONE.
3. TODAY, AS WE ATTEMPT TO DISCERN GREECE'S POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC
COURSE, THE CHARTS ARE LITTERED WITH CONTRADICTORY INDICATIONS OF
CONTINUITY AND CHANGE, OF STAGNATION, REGRESSION AND PROGRESS. THE
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US PFOR PGOV PREL ETRD
UR OVIP ASEC OGEN CASC
PINT EFIN BEXP OEXC EAID
CVIS OTRA ENRG OCON
ECON NATO PINS GE JA UK
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ATHENS 00001 01 OF 06 010941Z
Media Organizations
OUTCOME IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON FOUR

SEPARATE BUT INTERDEPENDENT FACTORS:
---ON THE ABILITY OF GREEK POLITICS TO ABSORB RAPID SOCIAL AND
ECONOMIC CHANGE AND TO PRODUCE A FLEXIBLE, RESPONSIVE, AND
STABLE DEMOCRACY;
--- ON THE ABILITY OF THE GREEK ECONOMY TO TRANSFORM ITSELF INTO
A MODERN PRODUCTIVE ENGINE SUSTAINING GROWTH AND MINIMIZING
SOCIAL CONFLICT;
--- ON THE ABILITY OF GREECE AND TURKEY SUCCESSFULLY TO ACCOMMODATE THEIR DIFFERENCES WHICH NOW SERIOUSLY DISTORT THE
POLITICS, THE ECONOMICS AND THE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS OF
GREECE;
--- ON THE ACTIONS AND CHOICES OF THE UNITED STATES WHICH, WHILE
THEY WILL NOT ALONE DETERMINE THE OUTCOME OF GREECE'S SEARCH
FOR IDENTITY, WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE EVENTS HERE.
4. IN THE THIRTY YEARS OF THE AMERICAN ALLIANCE, GREECE HAS MOVED
FROM POVERTY TO RELATIVE PROSPERITY. YET IT STILL AWAITS THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF A POLITICAL SYSTEM THAT IS GENERALLY VIEWED AS
LEGITIMATE AND COMMANDS THE LASTING LOYALTY OF THE GREEK PEOPLE.
WHAT HAS PREVAILED SINCE 1974 IS A POLITICAL SYSTEM BASED PRINCIPALLY ON THE AUTHORITY OF ONE EXCEPTIONAL MAN -CONSTANTINE
Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014
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CARAMANLIS. WE ARE NOW ENTERING A PERIOD WHICH WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER THAT SYSTEM CAN LONG SURVIVE HIM.
5. CARAMANLIS TOOK THE POLITICAL CHAOS HE INHERITED ON RETURNING
TO GREECE AND SHAPED IT INTO A REASONABLY FUNCTIONING DEMOCRACY.
NOTE BY OC/T: NOT PASSED ABOVE ADDRESSEES.
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INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 SSO-00 /026 W
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P R 010001Z JAN 78
FM AMEMBASSY ATHENS
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3960
INFO AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN
AMEMBASSY LISBON
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY LUXEMBOURG
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY REYKJAVIK
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY SOFIA
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMCONSUL THESSALONIKI
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 2 OF 6 ATHENS 0001
EXDIS
USOECD
USEEC
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MILITARY ADDRESSEES HANDLE AS SPECAT EXCLUSIVE
DEPARTMENT PASS AS INFO SPECAT EXCLUSIVE TO SECDEF, DIA,
USCINCEUR, CINCUSAFE, CINCUSNAVEUR, CINCUSAREUR, USNMR SHAPE,
AND USDOCOSOUTH
MANY HAD HOPED THAT HE WOULD MOVE BEYOND THAT TO BUILD AN ENDURING STRUCTURE BY REORDERING THE COUNTRY'S IMMOBILE
BUREAUCRACY,
RATIONALIZING ITS INEFFICIENT AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM, FOSTERING A
NEW AND RESILIENT POLITICAL PARTY STRUCTURE, AND REVAMPING AN
ANTIQUATED AND STULIFYING EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM. EXCEPT FOR SOME
PROGRESS IN THE FIELD OF EDUCATION, HE HAS INEVITABLY FALLEN FAR
SHORT OF SUCH HOPES. IN FACT, INSTEAD OF LAYING THE FOUNDATIONS
FOR A NEW, VIGOROUS POLITICAL ORDER, HE HAS RESTORED THE OLD ONE.
6. CARAMANLIS' POSITION IS NOW SUBSTANTIALLY ERODED FROM WHAT IT
WAS THREE YEARS AGO. TO BE SURE, HE WON A STRONG PLURALITY IN THE
1977 NOVEMBER ELECTIONS; HIS MAJORITY IN PARLIAMENT, IF REDUCED,
IS STILL SECURE. BUT THE CHANGES BROUGHT ABOUT BY THESE ELECTIONS
ARE SIGNIFICANT:
--- THE OPPOSITION ON THE LEFT NOW HAS A STRONG, ARTICULATE AND
UNPREDICTABLE VOICE IN ANDREAS PAPANDREOU;
--- THE PRIME MINISTER IS NO LONGER IN A POSITION VIRTUALLY AT
WILL TO MOVE FROM THE PRIME MINISTRY TO THE PRESIDENCY, THUS
SECURING FIVE MORE YEARS AT THE HELM OF THE COUNTRY.
--- THE STILL POWERFUL FAR RIGHT, NOW HAS A SMALL BUT
DETERMINED VOICE IN PARLIAMENT.
IN SHORT, GREEK POLITICS ARE NOW MOVING INTO A LUSTIER AND MORE
FLUID STAGE AS THE MEN WHO FANCY THEMSELVES CARAMANLIS' SUCCESSOR
BEGIN TO JOCKEY FOR POSITION, A PROCESS THAT WILL INEVITABLY
TEST THE BRITTLENESS OF GREEK INSTITUTIONS.
7. LEADER OF THE PANHELLENIC SOCIALIST MOVEMENT (PASOK) ANDREAS
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ATHENS 00001 02 OF 06 010942Z
PAPANDREOU WAS EARLY OUT OF THE GATE. POSSESSED OF THE ONLY
PERSONALITY ON THE NATIONAL STAGE WHICH CAN COMPETE WITH
CARAMANLIS', WILLING TO MAKE EXTRAVAGANT PROMISES AND ABLE TO
BUILD A SURPRISINGLY EFFECTIVE POLITICAL ORGANIZATION, HE WAS THE
MAJOR BENEFICIARY OF THE VOTERS' RESTIVENESS IN THE LAST
ELECTIONS. IF THE ELECTORATE EVER DECIDES TO HAND THE GOVERNMENT
TO CARAMANLIS' OPPONENTS, PAPANDREOU APPEARS TODAY AS THE MAN MOST
LIKELY TO BE CHOSEN. WITH HIS NEW STAKE IN PRESERVING THE PRESENT

SYSTEM, PAPANDREOU IS NOW INTENT ON AVOIDING THE RISK OF POLARIZATION THAT HIS SUDDEN ASCENSION COULD PRODUCE. BUT TO
FULFILL
HIS ASPIRATIONS, HE WILL HAVE TO CONTROL BOTH HIS OWN VOLATILE
PERSONALITY AND HIS UNPREDICTABLE FOLLOWERS.
8. PAPANDREOU MAY NEVER BECOME PRIME MINISTER -- MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON WHETHER, AFTER CARAMANLIS, THE CENTER AND RIGHT CAN REMAIN
UNITED BEHIND A SINGLE LEADER. BUT BECAUSE PAPANDREOU WILL DO OR
SAY ALMOST ANYTHING HE THINKS NECESSARY TO BECOME PRIME MINISTER,
IT IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT WHAT HE WOULD DO IF HE
SUCCEEDS. HE HAS AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER DURING THE PAST TEN YEARS
ESPOUSED ALMOST EVERY CONCEIVABLE OPINION ON GREEK DOMESTIC AND
FOREIGN POLICY; ONLY HIS NEARLY PATHOLOGICAL ANTI-AMERICANISM
HAS REMAINED CONSTANT. THUS IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT U.S.
INTERESTS WILL BE BETTER SERVED IF HIS DRIVING AMBITION TO BE
PRIME MINISTER IS NOT FULFILLED.
9. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE USG SHOULD LEAN NEITHER TOWARDS NOR
AWAY FROM PAPANDREOU. DURING THE PAST THREE YEARS HE HAS CUT OFF
HIMSELF AND HIS PARTY FROM THIS EMBASSY. WE ARE NOW MAKING IT
QUIETLY KNOWN THAT WE ARE PREPARED TO ESTABLISH SOME COMMUNICATION AND DIALOGUE. WHATEVER THE RESPONSE, WE PLAN TO BE
NEITHER ARDENT IN OUR PURSUIT NOR ANGRY IN OUR REJECTION.
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FM AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY LISBON
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY REYKJAVIK
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY SOFIA
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
USMISSION USNATO
EXDIS
USOECD
USEEC
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ATHENS 00001 03 OF 06 010942Z
AND USDOCOSOUTH
10. THE GREEK ARMED FORCES REMAIN THE POTENTIAL ARBITERS OF
GREEK POLITICS. ESSENTIALLY CONSERVATIVE AND STRONGLY TIED TO
NATO, THE WEST AND THE UNITED STATES, THEY REMAIN READY TO
INTERVENE SHOULD THEY DEEM IT NECESSARY TO SAVE THE "GREEK NATION".
TODAY, AS IN THE PAST, THEIR MAIN PERCEIVED ADVERSARIES ARE DISORDER, THE COMMUNISTS, AND ANDREAS PAPANDREOU. PAPANDREOU,
WHO
KNOWS THAT HE MUST OBTAIN AT LEAST THE ACQUIESCENCE OF THE GREEK
MILITARY IF HE IS TO ACCEDE TO LEADERSHIP HERE, WILL CONTINUE
TO COURT THE MEN IN UNIFORM. THE DANGER IN THIS IS THAT EITHER
HE OR HIS COMPETITORS MAY PUSH THE MILITARY BACK INTO POLITICS.
SUCH A DEVELOPMENT, WHETHER FOR PAPANDREOU OR AGAINST HIM IN
FAVOR OF THE RIGHT, WOULD DEEPLY COMPROMISE OUR INTERESTS.
11. OBVIOUSLY, POLITICS ARE NOT FAR REMOVED FROM ECONOMICS IN
THIS COUNTRY. OVER THE PAST THIRTY YEARS THE GREEK ECONOMY HAS
GROWN RAPIDLY WITHOUT AT THE SAME TIME FUNDAMENTALLY ALTERING
ITS TRADITIONAL SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC STRUCTURES. AS A RESULT,
GREECE HAS ESCAPED MANY OF THE SOCIAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL TENSIONS
THAT OTHER SOCIETIES HAVE FACED AS THEY MOVED FROM UNDERDEVELOPMENT TO MODERNITY; FOR ALL ITS MODERN FACADE AND WESTERN
ELITE,
ATHENS IS REALLY A CITY OF VILLAGERS. NOW AS GREECE BALANCES ON
THE EDGE OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY, TRANSFORMATIONS -- AND DISSheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014
LOCATIONS -- CANNOT BE DELAYED:
--- THE GREEK ECONOMY IS STILL BUILT AROUND SMALL SHOPS, FAMILYOWNED FIRMS, AND TRADITIONAL LAND TENURE SYSTEMS WHICH WILL
NOT ALLOW IT TO COMPETE EFFECTIVELY IN THE WORLD ECONOMY.
VAST CHANGES ARE GOING TO BE REQUIRED SO THAT ECONOMIES OF

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ATHENS 00001 03 OF 06 010942Z
SCALE CAN BE INTRODUCED.
--- THE GREEK BUREAUCRACY FAITHFULLY REPRODUCES THE WORST
ASPECTS OF ITS OTTOMAN-BYZANTINE PROGENITORS. TODAY IT
CONTINUES TO GROW, STIFLING INITIATIVE AND CHANGE. AND THIS
CLUMSY AND DESTRUCTIVE GIANT MUST NOW OVERSEE GREECE'S
ENTRANCE INTO THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY.
---INEQUALITY OF OPPORTUNITY AND REWARDS IS OBVIOUS IN GREECE.
INCOME DISTRIBUTION, FOR EXAMPLE, IS STILL VERY UNEQUAL AND
WEALTH IS HIGHLY CONCENTRATED. WHILE ALMOST EVERYBODY IS
BETTER OFF THAN A FEW YEARS AGO AND THERE IS VIRTUALLY
NO ECONOMIC MISERY, IT SEEMS CLEAR THAT GROWING PUBLIC RESENTMENT WILL REQUIRE PAINFUL CHANGES IN THE WAY THE PIE OF
OPPORTUNITY IS SLICED.
--- GREECE'S ECONOMY IS STILL HIGHLY PROTECTED AND SUBSIDIZED.
MEMBERSHIP IN THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY WILL EXPOSE GREEK INDUSTRY AND LABOR TO EXACTING COMPETITION. INDEED, THERE ARE
ALREADY SIGNS OF GROWING LABOR UNREST AND AN INCREASED WILLINGNESS TO STRIKE FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS. THE ROAD TO A
MODERN ECONOMY WILL BE A ROUGH ONE.
12. SHORT TERM ECONOMIC PROSPECTS ARE BRIGHTER. IN MOST RESPECTS,
THE GREEK ECONOMY HAS BEEN OUTPERFORMING ITS WESTERN EUROPEAN
PARTNERS: GROWTH EXCEEDS THE WESTERN EUROPEAN AVERAGE, UNEMPLOYMENT IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT, AND FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES
ARE
HIGH. BLESSED WITH A FAVORABLE GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION AND A STRONG
ENTREPRENEURIAL TRADITION, GREEKS HAVE MADE THE MOST OF THEIR
ADVANTAGES. AS THE GOVERNMENT SEEKS TO POSITION THE COUNTRY FOR
TAKING THE ECONOMIC BUMPS AHEAD -- AND TO COUNTER PAPANDREOU -IT HAS NOW OPTED TO EMPHASIZE EXPANSION AT THE COST OF
INFLATION,
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FM AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY LISBON
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY REYKJAVIK
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY SOFIA
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
USMISSION USNATO
EXDIS
USOECD
USEEC
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AND USDOCOSOUTH
TO EXPAND SOCIAL PROGRAMS AND TO STIMULATE DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN
INVESTMENT, THE WEAKEST AREA OF ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND AN AREA
WHERE PAPANDREOU'S STATIST AND FOREIGN POLICY POSITIONS CAN
ONLY MAKE INVESTORS EVEN SHYER.
13. FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC AFFAIRS HAVE ALWAYS BEEN CLOSELY LINKED
IN GREECE. SHOCKS IN ONE AREA HAVE INEVITABLY BEEN TRANSMITTED
TO THE OTHER. IN RECENT YEARS DOMESTIC UPHEAVALS HAVE DEFLECTED
AND CHANGED GREEK FOREIGN POLICY. NOW GREECE'S FOREIGN POLICY
THREATENS TO BECOME A DRIVING FORCE IN GREEK INTERNAL POLITICS:
--- FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE WORLD WAR II A MAJOR POLITICAL
FIGURE -- ANDREAS PAPANDREOU -- IS OFFERING A FOREIGN POLICY
ALTERNATIVE TO GREECE'S PRESENT ORIENTATION TO THE WEST;
--- GREECE IS ON THE BRINK OF JOINING THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY. IF

SUCCESSFUL THIS WILL BIND GREECE TO A PLURALISTIC WESTERN
DEMOCRATIC FUTURE. PAPANDREOU, CURRENTLY COMMITTED TO RADICAL
CHANGES IN GREECE'S ECONOMIC, IF NOT POLITICAL, STRUCTURES,
OPPOSES EC ENTRY; HE IS COUNTING ON THE DIFFICULT ADJUSTMENT
TO MEMBERSHIP PRODUCING ENOUGH VOTER UNHAPPINESS TO PUSH HIM
INTO OFFICE.
--- RIGHTLY OR WRONGLY, MOST GREEKS NOW SEE THEMSELVES AS LOCKED
IN A MAJOR AND VITAL STRUGGLE WITH TURKEY. CARAMANLIS SEEKS
TO MEET THE "TURKISH THREAT" BY ANCHORING GREECE'S DEFENSES IN
THE WEST. PAPANDREOU, PLAYING ON WIDELY-HELD GREEK DOUBTS
ABOUT WESTERN INTENTIONS, CLAIMS THAT THE U.S. AND NATO ARE
NOT ONLY UNRELIABLE BUT THAT THEY AID AND ABET TURKEY. HE
ADVOCATES BREAKING GREECE'S THIRTY-YEAR ALLIANCE WITH THE WEST.
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ATHENS 00001 04 OF 06 010955Z
14. IN SUCH CIRCUMSTANCES, CARAMANLIS HOPES TO PRESENT THE
SMALLEST POSSIBLE PROFILE FOR PAPANDREOU TO SHOOT AT. HE WOULD
LIKE TO AVOID DIFFICULT CHOICES AND DECISIONS WHICH WOULD
CLEARLY DEFINE HIS POLICY. YET THE POSSIBILITIES FOR PROCRASTINATION ARE BECOMING MORE LIMITED:
--- THE U.S.-GREEK DCA IS STILL PENDING. CARAMANLIS APPARENTLY
SEES OUR INTEREST IN SIGNATURE OF THIS DOCUMENT AS A LEVER
FOR OBTAINING AMERICAN SUPPORT IN HIS DEALINGS WITH TURKEY.
HOWEVER, SHOULD THE U.S.-TURKISH AGREEMENT BE RATIFIED BY
CONGRESS, CARAMANLIS WOULD PROBABLY SIGN THE GREEK DCA WITH
THE U.S. AND TAKE THE HEAT AT HOME.
--- NEGOTIATIONS WITH NATO WILL DRAG ON. GREECE WILL NOT RETURN
FULLY TO THE ALLIANCE IN THE ABSENCE OF A CYPRUS -- AND, I
BELIEVE, AN AEGEAN -- SETTLEMENT. BUT THERE WILL BE CONTINUING
OPPORTUNITIES FOR GREECE TO COOPERATE MORE FULLY WITH THE
ALLIANCE, AND CARAMANLIS WILL HAVE TO DECIDE HOW FAR HE
WILL GO TOWARDS SUCH COOPERATION;
--- NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY WILL BECOME MORE
INTENSE. THE GREEKS ARE GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE SOME HARD
DECISIONS ON THE COMMISSION'S REQUIREMENTS FOR ACCESSION,
DECISIONS MADE HARDER STILL BY PAPANDREOU'S OPPOSITION. AND
CARAMANLIS WILL THEN HAVE TO BEGIN MAKING THE CHANGES AT
HOME THAT FULL MEMBERSHIP WILL REQUIRE;
--- THE GREEK-TURKISH CONFRONTATION WILL NOT BE ABATED WITHOUT
DECISIONS ON WHAT CONSTITUTES AN ACCEPTABLE COMPROMISE
IN THE AEGEAN AS WELL AS ON THE TIMING OF MOVES TOWARDS A
REASONABLE SETTLEMENT.
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AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY LISBON
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY REYKJAVIK
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY SOFIA
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
USMISSION USNATO
EXDIS
USOECD
USEEC
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15. AS THE FOREGOING SUGGESTS, THE AEGEAN IS A CONSTANT
LEITMOTIV IN GREECE'S FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC AFFAIRS. RECENTLY A
DECEPTIVE CALM HAS REIGNED IN THE GREEK-TURKISH CONFRONTATION
OVER THEIR RESPECTIVE AEGEAN RIGHTS, BUT THAT CALM SHOULD NOT MAKE
US FORGET THAT AT LEAST TWICE IN THE PAST FOUR YEARS THE AEGEAN
DISPUTE HAS REACHED CRITICAL PROPORTIONS IN THE MINDS OF THE
GREEKS. AND EVEN SHORT OF WAR, THE AEGEAN FACE-OFF IS ENGENDERING
VERY REAL COSTS. ARMS SPENDING IN GREECE EATS UP FUNDS VITALLY
NEEDED FOR INVESTMENTS IN HEALTH, IN HOUSING, IN EDUCATION AND IN
AGRICULTURE -- ALL ISSUES WHICH PAPANDREOU SUCCESSFULLY EXPLOITED IN THE LAST ELECTIONS. AND PAPANDREOU IS SKILLFULLY
EXPLOITING GREEK FEARS OF TURKISH INTENTIONS IN THE AEGEAN TO ATTACK
THE UNITED STATES AND NATO. IN SHORT, THOUGH THE AEGEAN
APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED OFF THE CRISIS CHARTS, IT IS A FESTERING
AND POTENTIALLY LETHAL SORE. WE MAY SOON FIND THAT THE RISKS OF A
GREATER AMERICAN EFFORT TO HELP RESOLVE THIS ISSUE WOULD BE
OUTWEIGHED BY THE PROBABLE DIVIDENDS.
16. CARAMANLIS HAS A WELL ESTABLISHED FOREIGN POLICY TRACK RECORD
WHICH IS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE VERY MUCH IN THE YEARS AHEAD:
--- HE IS COMMITTED TO THE ALLIANCE WITH THE UNITED STATES AND
THE WEST. BUT EVEN SO BASIC A RELATIONSHIP MUST, IN HIS VIEW,
BEND AND FLEX BEFORE THE GREEK-TURKISH CONFRONTATION. THUS
HE SEEKS TO MANIPULATE THE U.S. RELATIONSHIP TO GAIN MAXIMUM
LEVERAGE AGAINST THE TURKS. NEVERTHELESS, HIS POLITICAL CONVICTIONS AND POLITICAL CONSTITUENCY MAKE A RESTORED GREEKU.S.
ALLIANCE HIS STRONG PREFERENCE;
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ATHENS 00001 05 OF 06 011006Z
--- ON CYPRUS HE WOULD PREFER AS LITTLE MAINLAND GREEK INVOLVEMENT AS POSSIBLE. HAVING ALREADY CONCEDED ALL THE PRINCIPAL
ISSUES OF SUBSTANCE -- BIZONALITY, A FEDERAL SYSTEM, A LARGE
TURKISH CYPRIOT ZONE -- THE GOG IS UNWILLING TO TAKE THE
INITIATIVE TO SEE THOSE CONCESSIONS TRANSLATED INTO A SETTLEMENT. ALMOST ANY SETTLEMENT IS CERTAIN TO BE UNPOPULAR IN
GREECE AND EXPLOITED BY THE OPPOSITION, SO THERE IS A
POLITICAL DISINCENTIVE FOR DIRECT GOG INVOLVEMENT. MOREOVER,
THE GOG IS LOATHE TO FACILITATE CONGRESSIONAL PASSAGE OF THE
TURKISH DCA, WHICH A CYPRUS AGREEMENT WOULD DO, AS LONG AS
THE GREEK-TURKISH CONFRONTATION CONTINUES IN THE AEGEAN.
--- CARAMANLIS IS ON RECORD AS FAVORING A COMPROMISE SETTLEMENT OF
THE AEGEAN DISPUTE WHICH WOULD GRANT TURKEY SUBSTANTIAL EXSheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014
PLOITATION RIGHTS. HE KNOWS THAT AN ARMED CLASH WITH TURKEY
WOULD BE A DISASTER FOR GREEK DEMOCRACY, BUT HE IS NOT
PREPARED TO SACRIFICE SUBSTANTIAL GREEK INTERESTS
IN THE AEGEAN TO AVOID ARMED CONFLICT. AS IN CYPRUS, THE
PROBLEM IS TO MOVE THE SITUATION BEYOND THE ACCEPTANCE OF
PRINCIPLES TO THEIR APPLICATION IN A CONCRETE SETTLEMENT.
18. U.S. INTERESTS IN GREECE ARE CLEAR: WE WANT TO SEE DEMOCRACY
STABILIZED, GREEK-TURKISH TENSIONS REDUCED, AND GREECE'S
ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND SECURITY PARTNERSHIP WITH THE WEST
STRENGTHENED. JOHN FOSTER DULLES TERMED GREECE A HOOKED FISH, WITH
NO ALTERNATIVE TO ITS AMERICAN ALLIANCE. EVEN TODAY GREECE HAS
NO OTHER EASY ALTERNATIVE, AND THE SOVIETS ARE CLEARLY PLAYING
FOR TURKISH, NOT GREEK, STAKES. BUT U.S.-GREEK RELATIONS COULD
ONCE AGAIN ENTER A DOWNWARD SPIRAL EVEN IF GREECE DOES NOT TURN
AWAY FROM THE WEST; THE GROWING SHADOW OF PAPANDREOU IS A REMINDER OF THE KIND OF DANGERS THAT COULD LIE AHEAD.
NOTE BY OC/T: NOT PASSED BOVE ADDRESSEES.
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P R 010001Z JAN 78
FM AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY LISBON
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY REYKJAVIK
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY SOFIA
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
USMISSION USNATO
EXDIS
USOECD
USEEC
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ATHENS 00001 06 OF 06 011037Z
AND USDOCOSOUTH
19. FOR THE PRESENT WE HAVE NO GREATER ASSET IN GREECE THAN PRIME
MINISTER CARAMANLIS. A DIFFICULT, AT TIMES EMOTIONAL MAN WHOSE
POLITICAL SUPPORT IS GRADUALLY WANING, HE STILL REMAINS THE STRONGEST SINGLE LEADER OF THIS COUNTRY AND A MAN WHO SHARES
MANY OF
OUR OWN OBJECTIVES. OUR PROBLEM IS HOW TO MOVE HIM FURTHER IN
DIRECTIONS WE WOULD LIKE HIM TO GO. THE TEMPTATION IS TO PUT
HEAVY PRESSURE ON HIM. BUT IN DOING SO WE WOULD RISK BOTH PROVOKING HIM INTO EMOTIONAL, NEGATIVE POSITIONS AND HASTENING
THE
EROSION OF HIS DOMESTIC BASE. EVEN IF HE DID NOT FACE A STRENGTHENED AND ARTICULATE OPPOSITION, THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE
THAT
PRESSURE WOULD WORK -- HE IS STUBBORN AND MOVES ONLY WHEN HE
SEES A REAL PAYOUT FOR GREEK INTERESTS, AS HE DEFINES THEM. MOREOVER, WHILE THE GOG MIGHT EXAGGERATE HOW MUCH THE ELECTION
RESULTS HAVE RESTRICTED CARAMANLIS' FREEDOM TO MANEUVER, IT IS
TRUE THAT HE IS NOW FACING A TRULY EFFECTIVE OPPOSITION SPOKESMAN
AND THEREFORE MUST BE PRUDENT IN HIS ACTIONS. AND IN A COUNTRY
WHERE POTENT ANTI-AMERICANISM REMAINS SIMMERING BELOW THE SURFACE,
WE HAVE SPECIAL REASON TO WALK SOFTLY.
20. WE ARE ENTERING A PERIOD IN OUR RELATIONS WITH GREECE WHICH
COULD BECOME EVEN MORE DIFFICULT AND COMPLICATED THAN THE PAST
THREE YEARS. SINCE 1974 WE HAVE WISELY KEPT OUR HEADS DOWN IN
THE HOPE THAT THINGS WOULD IMPROVE -- AND THEY HAVE. NOW, CHANGE
AND MOVEMENT ARE UNDERWAY AS GREECE EMERGES FROM THE AFTERMATH OF
THE JUNTA YEARS. WHAT IS PRIMARILY REQUIRED ON OUR PART IS A
CONTINUING EFFORT TO REASSURE GREEKS AT ALL LEVELS THAT WE ARE
NOT SACRIFICING THEIR CONCERNS FOR THE SAKE OF OUR OWN INTERESTS
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IN TURKEY. AMERICAN EVENHANDEDNESS TOWARDS THE AREA SEEMS SELFEVIDENT IN WASHINGTON; THAT CONCEPT IS DIFFICULT TO
COMPREHEND
FOR MOST GREEKS, WHO BELIEVE THAT IF SOMEONE IS NOT FULLY WITH
THEM HE MUST BE AGAINST THEM. IN APPLYING OUR MEDITERRANEAN
POLICY IN THE NEW YEAR WE WILL MAKE OUR PROBLEMS MORE INTRACTABLE
IF WE DISREGARD THIS UNFORTUNATE BUT REAL GREEK TENDENCY TO SEE
THINGS ONLY IN BLACK AND WHITE. NATURALLY WE WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO SIDE WITH THE GOG ON EVERY ISSUE THAT ARISES IN 1978, AND
WE MUST MOVE AHEAD FIRMLY WITH POLICIES DESIGNED TO RESTORE
STABILITY TO THE AREA AND OUR GOOD RELATIONS WITH ALL COUNTRIES
CONCERNED. BUT WE MUST PACKAGE OUR PRODUCT MORE ATTRACTIVELY,
FIND EFFECTIVE WAYS OF CONVINCING GREEKS THAT OUR EFFORTS WILL
PROTECT AND ENHANCE THEIR OWN NATIONAL INTERESTS, AND GUARD
AGAINST UNINTENDED AFFRONTS WHICH COULD FAN THE FLAMES OF ANTIAMERICANISM AGAIN AND MAKE MORE TENUOUS THE POSITION OF
CARAMANLIS
AS HE SEEKS TO NUDGE HIS NONE-TOO-EASY COUNTRY ALONG THE PATH
TO A STRONGER RELATIONSHIP WITH THE WEST.
MILLS
NOTE BY OC/TV NOT PASSED ABOVE ADDRESSEES.
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P R 010001Z JAN 78
FM AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY LISBON
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY REYKJAVIK
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY SOFIA
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
USMISSION USNATO
EXDIS
USOECD
USEEC
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ATHENS 00001 01 OF 06 010941Z
AND USDOCOSOUTH
--- "GREECE BELONGS TO THE WEST."
CONSTANTINE CARAMANLIS
--- "WE WILL MAKE GREEKS PROUD TO BE GREEKS."
ANDREAS PAPANDREOU
1. PRIME MINISTER CARAMANLIS AND OPPOSITION LEADER PAPANDREOU,
THE MEN WHO SPEAK FOR THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF GREEKS, SEEM TO
AGREE ON ONE THING AT LEAST -- THAT GREECE IS A NATION IN SEARCH
OF AN IDENTITY. GEOGRAPHICALLY ON THE MARGINS OF EUROPE, SPIRITUALLY TRYING TO ACCOMMODATE A PAST WHICH PURSUED ORDER AND
A
FUTURE THAT PROMISES CHANGE, AWASH WITH IMPORTED IDEAS AND VALUES,
GREEKS ARE UNCERTAIN OF THEMSELVES AND THEIR FUTURE.
2. U.S. INTERESTS IN GREECE AND IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN ARE
IN LARGE PART HOSTAGE TO THE OUTCOME OF THIS UNCERTAINTY. GREECE
MAY CHOOSE TO ANCHOR ITSELF IN THE WEST -- A CHOICE WHICH WOULD
SECURE OUR OWN POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND DEFENSE INTERESTS. FOR
GREECE TO MOVE DECISIVELY TOWARDS A WESTERN FUTURE, ITS LEADERS
WOULD HAVE TO OVERCOME HISTORY -- A FORMIDABLE TASK BUT NOT AN
IMPOSSIBLE ONE. BUT GREECE COULD ALSO DRIFT AWAY FROM US AND ACQUIESCE IN THE NEGATIVE EXAMPLES OF ITS PAST -- AN EASIER
CHOICE
BUT SURELY NOT AN INEVITABLE ONE.
3. TODAY, AS WE ATTEMPT TO DISCERN GREECE'S POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC
COURSE, THE CHARTS ARE LITTERED WITH CONTRADICTORY INDICATIONS OF
CONTINUITY AND CHANGE, OF STAGNATION, REGRESSION AND PROGRESS. THE
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OUTCOME IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON FOUR
SEPARATE BUT INTERDEPENDENT FACTORS:
---ON THE ABILITY OF GREEK POLITICS TO ABSORB RAPID SOCIAL AND
ECONOMIC CHANGE AND TO PRODUCE A FLEXIBLE, RESPONSIVE, AND
STABLE DEMOCRACY;
--- ON THE ABILITY OF THE GREEK ECONOMY TO TRANSFORM ITSELF INTO
A MODERN PRODUCTIVE ENGINE SUSTAINING GROWTH AND MINIMIZING
SOCIAL CONFLICT;
--- ON THE ABILITY OF GREECE AND TURKEY SUCCESSFULLY TO ACCOMMODATE THEIR DIFFERENCES WHICH NOW SERIOUSLY DISTORT THE
POLITICS, THE ECONOMICS AND THE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS OF
GREECE;
--- ON THE ACTIONS AND CHOICES OF THE UNITED STATES WHICH, WHILE
THEY WILL NOT ALONE DETERMINE THE OUTCOME OF GREECE'S SEARCH
FOR IDENTITY, WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE EVENTS HERE.
4. IN THE THIRTY YEARS OF THE AMERICAN ALLIANCE, GREECE HAS MOVED
FROM POVERTY TO RELATIVE PROSPERITY. YET IT STILL AWAITS THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF A POLITICAL SYSTEM THAT IS GENERALLY VIEWED AS
LEGITIMATE AND COMMANDS THE LASTING LOYALTY OF THE GREEK PEOPLE.
WHAT HAS PREVAILED SINCE 1974 IS A POLITICAL SYSTEM BASED PRINCIPALLY ON THE AUTHORITY OF ONE EXCEPTIONAL MAN -CONSTANTINE
CARAMANLIS. WE ARE NOW ENTERING A PERIOD WHICH WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER THAT SYSTEM CAN LONG SURVIVE HIM.
5. CARAMANLIS TOOK THE POLITICAL CHAOS HE INHERITED ON RETURNING
TO GREECE AND SHAPED IT INTO A REASONABLY FUNCTIONING DEMOCRACY.
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P R 010001Z JAN 78
FM AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY LISBON
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY REYKJAVIK
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY SOFIA
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
USMISSION USNATO
EXDIS
USOECD
USEEC
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ATHENS 00001 02 OF 06 010942Z
AND USDOCOSOUTH
MANY HAD HOPED THAT HE WOULD MOVE BEYOND THAT TO BUILD AN ENDURING STRUCTURE BY REORDERING THE COUNTRY'S IMMOBILE
BUREAUCRACY,
RATIONALIZING ITS INEFFICIENT AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM, FOSTERING A
NEW AND RESILIENT POLITICAL PARTY STRUCTURE, AND REVAMPING AN
ANTIQUATED AND STULIFYING EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM. EXCEPT FOR SOME
PROGRESS IN THE FIELD OF EDUCATION, HE HAS INEVITABLY FALLEN FAR
SHORT OF SUCH HOPES. IN FACT, INSTEAD OF LAYING THE FOUNDATIONS
FOR A NEW, VIGOROUS POLITICAL ORDER, HE HAS RESTORED THE OLD ONE.
6. CARAMANLIS' POSITION IS NOW SUBSTANTIALLY ERODED FROM WHAT IT
WAS THREE YEARS AGO. TO BE SURE, HE WON A STRONG PLURALITY IN THE
1977 NOVEMBER ELECTIONS; HIS MAJORITY IN PARLIAMENT, IF REDUCED,
IS STILL SECURE. BUT THE CHANGES BROUGHT ABOUT BY THESE ELECTIONS
ARE SIGNIFICANT:
--- THE OPPOSITION ON THE LEFT NOW HAS A STRONG, ARTICULATE AND
UNPREDICTABLE VOICE IN ANDREAS PAPANDREOU;
--- THE PRIME MINISTER IS NO LONGER IN A POSITION VIRTUALLY AT
WILL TO MOVE FROM THE PRIME MINISTRY TO THE PRESIDENCY, THUS
SECURING FIVE MORE YEARS AT THE HELM OF THE COUNTRY.
--- THE STILL POWERFUL FAR RIGHT, NOW HAS A SMALL BUT
DETERMINED VOICE IN PARLIAMENT.
IN SHORT, GREEK POLITICS ARE NOW MOVING INTO A LUSTIER AND MORE
FLUID STAGE AS THE MEN WHO FANCY THEMSELVES CARAMANLIS' SUCCESSOR
BEGIN TO JOCKEY FOR POSITION, A PROCESS THAT WILL INEVITABLY
TEST THE BRITTLENESS OF GREEK INSTITUTIONS.
7. LEADER OF THE PANHELLENIC SOCIALIST MOVEMENT (PASOK) ANDREAS
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PAPANDREOU WAS EARLY OUT OF THE GATE. POSSESSED OF THE ONLY
PERSONALITY ON THE NATIONAL STAGE WHICH CAN COMPETE WITH
CARAMANLIS', WILLING TO MAKE EXTRAVAGANT PROMISES AND ABLE TO
BUILD A SURPRISINGLY EFFECTIVE POLITICAL ORGANIZATION, HE WAS THE
MAJOR BENEFICIARY OF THE VOTERS' RESTIVENESS IN THE LAST
ELECTIONS. IF THE ELECTORATE EVER DECIDES TO HAND THE GOVERNMENT
TO CARAMANLIS' OPPONENTS, PAPANDREOU APPEARS TODAY AS THE MAN MOST
LIKELY TO BE CHOSEN. WITH HIS NEW STAKE IN PRESERVING THE PRESENT
SYSTEM, PAPANDREOU IS NOW INTENT ON AVOIDING THE RISK OF POLARIZATION THAT HIS SUDDEN ASCENSION COULD PRODUCE. BUT TO
FULFILL
HIS ASPIRATIONS, HE WILL HAVE TO CONTROL BOTH HIS OWN VOLATILE
PERSONALITY AND HIS UNPREDICTABLE FOLLOWERS.
8. PAPANDREOU MAY NEVER BECOME PRIME MINISTER -- MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON WHETHER, AFTER CARAMANLIS, THE CENTER AND RIGHT CAN REMAIN
UNITED BEHIND A SINGLE LEADER. BUT BECAUSE PAPANDREOU WILL DO OR
SAY ALMOST ANYTHING HE THINKS NECESSARY TO BECOME PRIME MINISTER,
IT IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT WHAT HE WOULD DO IF HE
SUCCEEDS. HE HAS AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER DURING THE PAST TEN YEARS
ESPOUSED ALMOST EVERY CONCEIVABLE OPINION ON GREEK DOMESTIC AND
FOREIGN POLICY; ONLY HIS NEARLY PATHOLOGICAL ANTI-AMERICANISM
HAS REMAINED CONSTANT. THUS IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT U.S.
INTERESTS WILL BE BETTER SERVED IF HIS DRIVING AMBITION TO BE
PRIME MINISTER IS NOT FULFILLED.
9. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE USG SHOULD LEAN NEITHER TOWARDS NOR
AWAY FROM PAPANDREOU. DURING THE PAST THREE YEARS HE HAS CUT OFF
HIMSELF AND HIS PARTY FROM THIS EMBASSY. WE ARE NOW MAKING IT
QUIETLY KNOWN THAT WE ARE PREPARED TO ESTABLISH SOME COMMUNICATION AND DIALOGUE. WHATEVER THE RESPONSE, WE PLAN TO BE
NEITHER ARDENT IN OUR PURSUIT NOR ANGRY IN OUR REJECTION.
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ACTION SS-25
------------------053277 010949Z /11
P R 010001Z JAN 78
FM AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY LISBON
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY REYKJAVIK
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY SOFIA
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
USMISSION USNATO
EXDIS
USOECD
USEEC
CONFIDENTIAL
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PAGE 02
ATHENS 00001 03 OF 06 010942Z
AND USDOCOSOUTH
10. THE GREEK ARMED FORCES REMAIN THE POTENTIAL ARBITERS OF
GREEK POLITICS. ESSENTIALLY CONSERVATIVE AND STRONGLY TIED TO
NATO, THE WEST AND THE UNITED STATES, THEY REMAIN READY TO
INTERVENE SHOULD THEY DEEM IT NECESSARY TO SAVE THE "GREEK NATION".
TODAY, AS IN THE PAST, THEIR MAIN PERCEIVED ADVERSARIES ARE DISORDER, THE COMMUNISTS, AND ANDREAS PAPANDREOU. PAPANDREOU,
WHO
KNOWS THAT HE MUST OBTAIN AT LEAST THE ACQUIESCENCE OF THE GREEK
MILITARY IF HE IS TO ACCEDE TO LEADERSHIP HERE, WILL CONTINUE
TO COURT THE MEN IN UNIFORM. THE DANGER IN THIS IS THAT EITHER
HE OR HIS COMPETITORS MAY PUSH THE MILITARY BACK INTO POLITICS.
SUCH A DEVELOPMENT, WHETHER FOR PAPANDREOU OR AGAINST HIM IN
FAVOR OF THE RIGHT, WOULD DEEPLY COMPROMISE OUR INTERESTS.
11. OBVIOUSLY, POLITICS ARE NOT FAR REMOVED FROM ECONOMICS IN
THIS COUNTRY. OVER THE PAST THIRTY YEARS THE GREEK ECONOMY HAS
GROWN RAPIDLY WITHOUT AT THE SAME TIME FUNDAMENTALLY ALTERING
ITS TRADITIONAL SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC STRUCTURES. AS A RESULT,
GREECE HAS ESCAPED MANY OF THE SOCIAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL TENSIONS
THAT OTHER SOCIETIES HAVE FACED AS THEY MOVED FROM UNDERDEVELOPMENT TO MODERNITY; FOR ALL ITS MODERN FACADE AND WESTERN
ELITE,
ATHENS IS REALLY A CITY OF VILLAGERS. NOW AS GREECE BALANCES ON
THE EDGE OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY, TRANSFORMATIONS -- AND DISSheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014
LOCATIONS -- CANNOT BE DELAYED:
--- THE GREEK ECONOMY IS STILL BUILT AROUND SMALL SHOPS, FAMILYOWNED FIRMS, AND TRADITIONAL LAND TENURE SYSTEMS WHICH WILL
NOT ALLOW IT TO COMPETE EFFECTIVELY IN THE WORLD ECONOMY.
VAST CHANGES ARE GOING TO BE REQUIRED SO THAT ECONOMIES OF
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ATHENS 00001 03 OF 06 010942Z
SCALE CAN BE INTRODUCED.
--- THE GREEK BUREAUCRACY FAITHFULLY REPRODUCES THE WORST
ASPECTS OF ITS OTTOMAN-BYZANTINE PROGENITORS. TODAY IT
CONTINUES TO GROW, STIFLING INITIATIVE AND CHANGE. AND THIS
CLUMSY AND DESTRUCTIVE GIANT MUST NOW OVERSEE GREECE'S
ENTRANCE INTO THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY.
---INEQUALITY OF OPPORTUNITY AND REWARDS IS OBVIOUS IN GREECE.
INCOME DISTRIBUTION, FOR EXAMPLE, IS STILL VERY UNEQUAL AND
WEALTH IS HIGHLY CONCENTRATED. WHILE ALMOST EVERYBODY IS
BETTER OFF THAN A FEW YEARS AGO AND THERE IS VIRTUALLY
NO ECONOMIC MISERY, IT SEEMS CLEAR THAT GROWING PUBLIC RESENTMENT WILL REQUIRE PAINFUL CHANGES IN THE WAY THE PIE OF
OPPORTUNITY IS SLICED.
--- GREECE'S ECONOMY IS STILL HIGHLY PROTECTED AND SUBSIDIZED.
MEMBERSHIP IN THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY WILL EXPOSE GREEK INDUSTRY AND LABOR TO EXACTING COMPETITION. INDEED, THERE ARE
ALREADY SIGNS OF GROWING LABOR UNREST AND AN INCREASED WILLINGNESS TO STRIKE FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS. THE ROAD TO A
MODERN ECONOMY WILL BE A ROUGH ONE.
12. SHORT TERM ECONOMIC PROSPECTS ARE BRIGHTER. IN MOST RESPECTS,
THE GREEK ECONOMY HAS BEEN OUTPERFORMING ITS WESTERN EUROPEAN

PARTNERS: GROWTH EXCEEDS THE WESTERN EUROPEAN AVERAGE, UNEMPLOYMENT IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT, AND FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES
ARE
HIGH. BLESSED WITH A FAVORABLE GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION AND A STRONG
ENTREPRENEURIAL TRADITION, GREEKS HAVE MADE THE MOST OF THEIR
ADVANTAGES. AS THE GOVERNMENT SEEKS TO POSITION THE COUNTRY FOR
TAKING THE ECONOMIC BUMPS AHEAD -- AND TO COUNTER PAPANDREOU -IT HAS NOW OPTED TO EMPHASIZE EXPANSION AT THE COST OF
INFLATION,
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------------------053282 010956Z /11
P R 010001Z JAN 78
FM AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY LISBON
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY REYKJAVIK
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY SOFIA
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
USMISSION USNATO
EXDIS
USOECD
USEEC
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ATHENS 00001 04 OF 06 010955Z
AND USDOCOSOUTH
TO EXPAND SOCIAL PROGRAMS AND TO STIMULATE DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN
INVESTMENT, THE WEAKEST AREA OF ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND AN AREA
WHERE PAPANDREOU'S STATIST AND FOREIGN POLICY POSITIONS CAN
ONLY MAKE INVESTORS EVEN SHYER.
13. FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC AFFAIRS HAVE ALWAYS BEEN CLOSELY LINKED
IN GREECE. SHOCKS IN ONE AREA HAVE INEVITABLY BEEN TRANSMITTED
TO THE OTHER. IN RECENT YEARS DOMESTIC UPHEAVALS HAVE DEFLECTED
AND CHANGED GREEK FOREIGN POLICY. NOW GREECE'S FOREIGN POLICY
THREATENS TO BECOME A DRIVING FORCE IN GREEK INTERNAL POLITICS:
--- FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE WORLD WAR II A MAJOR POLITICAL
FIGURE -- ANDREAS PAPANDREOU -- IS OFFERING A FOREIGN POLICY
ALTERNATIVE TO GREECE'S PRESENT ORIENTATION TO THE WEST;
--- GREECE IS ON THE BRINK OF JOINING THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY. IF
SUCCESSFUL THIS WILL BIND GREECE TO A PLURALISTIC WESTERN
DEMOCRATIC FUTURE. PAPANDREOU, CURRENTLY COMMITTED TO RADICAL
CHANGES IN GREECE'S ECONOMIC, IF NOT POLITICAL, STRUCTURES,
OPPOSES EC ENTRY; HE IS COUNTING ON THE DIFFICULT ADJUSTMENT
TO MEMBERSHIP PRODUCING ENOUGH VOTER UNHAPPINESS TO PUSH HIM
INTO OFFICE.
--- RIGHTLY OR WRONGLY, MOST GREEKS NOW SEE THEMSELVES AS LOCKED
IN A MAJOR AND VITAL STRUGGLE WITH TURKEY. CARAMANLIS SEEKS
TO MEET THE "TURKISH THREAT" BY ANCHORING GREECE'S DEFENSES IN
THE WEST. PAPANDREOU, PLAYING ON WIDELY-HELD GREEK DOUBTS
ABOUT WESTERN INTENTIONS, CLAIMS THAT THE U.S. AND NATO ARE
NOT ONLY UNRELIABLE BUT THAT THEY AID AND ABET TURKEY. HE
ADVOCATES BREAKING GREECE'S THIRTY-YEAR ALLIANCE WITH THE WEST.
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ATHENS 00001 04 OF 06 010955Z
14. IN SUCH CIRCUMSTANCES, CARAMANLIS HOPES TO PRESENT THE
SMALLEST POSSIBLE PROFILE FOR PAPANDREOU TO SHOOT AT. HE WOULD
LIKE TO AVOID DIFFICULT CHOICES AND DECISIONS WHICH WOULD
CLEARLY DEFINE HIS POLICY. YET THE POSSIBILITIES FOR PROCRASTINATION ARE BECOMING MORE LIMITED:
--- THE U.S.-GREEK DCA IS STILL PENDING. CARAMANLIS APPARENTLY

SEES OUR INTEREST IN SIGNATURE OF THIS DOCUMENT AS A LEVER
FOR OBTAINING AMERICAN SUPPORT IN HIS DEALINGS WITH TURKEY.
HOWEVER, SHOULD THE U.S.-TURKISH AGREEMENT BE RATIFIED BY
CONGRESS, CARAMANLIS WOULD PROBABLY SIGN THE GREEK DCA WITH
THE U.S. AND TAKE THE HEAT AT HOME.
--- NEGOTIATIONS WITH NATO WILL DRAG ON. GREECE WILL NOT RETURN
FULLY TO THE ALLIANCE IN THE ABSENCE OF A CYPRUS -- AND, I
BELIEVE, AN AEGEAN -- SETTLEMENT. BUT THERE WILL BE CONTINUING
OPPORTUNITIES FOR GREECE TO COOPERATE MORE FULLY WITH THE
ALLIANCE, AND CARAMANLIS WILL HAVE TO DECIDE HOW FAR HE
WILL GO TOWARDS SUCH COOPERATION;
--- NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY WILL BECOME MORE
INTENSE. THE GREEKS ARE GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE SOME HARD
DECISIONS ON THE COMMISSION'S REQUIREMENTS FOR ACCESSION,
DECISIONS MADE HARDER STILL BY PAPANDREOU'S OPPOSITION. AND
CARAMANLIS WILL THEN HAVE TO BEGIN MAKING THE CHANGES AT
HOME THAT FULL MEMBERSHIP WILL REQUIRE;
--- THE GREEK-TURKISH CONFRONTATION WILL NOT BE ABATED WITHOUT
DECISIONS ON WHAT CONSTITUTES AN ACCEPTABLE COMPROMISE
IN THE AEGEAN AS WELL AS ON THE TIMING OF MOVES TOWARDS A
REASONABLE SETTLEMENT.
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------------------053293 011009Z /13
P R 010001Z JAN 78
FM AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY LISBON
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY REYKJAVIK
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY SOFIA
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
USMISSION USNATO
EXDIS
USOECD
USEEC
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ATHENS 00001 05 OF 06 011006Z
AND USDOCOSOUTH
15. AS THE FOREGOING SUGGESTS, THE AEGEAN IS A CONSTANT
LEITMOTIV IN GREECE'S FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC AFFAIRS. RECENTLY A
DECEPTIVE CALM HAS REIGNED IN THE GREEK-TURKISH CONFRONTATION
OVER THEIR RESPECTIVE AEGEAN RIGHTS, BUT THAT CALM SHOULD NOT MAKE
US FORGET THAT AT LEAST TWICE IN THE PAST FOUR YEARS THE AEGEAN
DISPUTE HAS REACHED CRITICAL PROPORTIONS IN THE MINDS OF THE
GREEKS. AND EVEN SHORT OF WAR, THE AEGEAN FACE-OFF IS ENGENDERING
VERY REAL COSTS. ARMS SPENDING IN GREECE EATS UP FUNDS VITALLY
NEEDED FOR INVESTMENTS IN HEALTH, IN HOUSING, IN EDUCATION AND IN
AGRICULTURE -- ALL ISSUES WHICH PAPANDREOU SUCCESSFULLY EXPLOITED IN THE LAST ELECTIONS. AND PAPANDREOU IS SKILLFULLY
EXPLOITING GREEK FEARS OF TURKISH INTENTIONS IN THE AEGEAN TO ATTACK
THE UNITED STATES AND NATO. IN SHORT, THOUGH THE AEGEAN
APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED OFF THE CRISIS CHARTS, IT IS A FESTERING
AND POTENTIALLY LETHAL SORE. WE MAY SOON FIND THAT THE RISKS OF A
GREATER AMERICAN EFFORT TO HELP RESOLVE THIS ISSUE WOULD BE
OUTWEIGHED BY THE PROBABLE DIVIDENDS.
16. CARAMANLIS HAS A WELL ESTABLISHED FOREIGN POLICY TRACK RECORD
WHICH IS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE VERY MUCH IN THE YEARS AHEAD:
--- HE IS COMMITTED TO THE ALLIANCE WITH THE UNITED STATES AND
THE WEST. BUT EVEN SO BASIC A RELATIONSHIP MUST, IN HIS VIEW,
BEND AND FLEX BEFORE THE GREEK-TURKISH CONFRONTATION. THUS
HE SEEKS TO MANIPULATE THE U.S. RELATIONSHIP TO GAIN MAXIMUM
LEVERAGE AGAINST THE TURKS. NEVERTHELESS, HIS POLITICAL CONVICTIONS AND POLITICAL CONSTITUENCY MAKE A RESTORED GREEKU.S.
ALLIANCE HIS STRONG PREFERENCE;

CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03
ATHENS 00001 05 OF 06 011006Z
--- ON CYPRUS HE WOULD PREFER AS LITTLE MAINLAND GREEK INVOLVEMENT AS POSSIBLE. HAVING ALREADY CONCEDED ALL THE PRINCIPAL
ISSUES OF SUBSTANCE -- BIZONALITY, A FEDERAL SYSTEM, A LARGE
TURKISH CYPRIOT ZONE -- THE GOG IS UNWILLING TO TAKE THE
INITIATIVE TO SEE THOSE CONCESSIONS TRANSLATED INTO A SETTLEMENT. ALMOST ANY SETTLEMENT IS CERTAIN TO BE UNPOPULAR IN
GREECE AND EXPLOITED BY THE OPPOSITION, SO THERE IS A
POLITICAL DISINCENTIVE FOR DIRECT GOG INVOLVEMENT. MOREOVER,
THE GOG IS LOATHE TO FACILITATE CONGRESSIONAL PASSAGE OF THE
TURKISH DCA, WHICH A CYPRUS AGREEMENT WOULD DO, AS LONG AS
THE GREEK-TURKISH CONFRONTATION CONTINUES IN THE AEGEAN.
--- CARAMANLIS IS ON RECORD AS FAVORING A COMPROMISE SETTLEMENT OF
THE AEGEAN DISPUTE WHICH WOULD GRANT TURKEY SUBSTANTIAL EXSheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014
PLOITATION RIGHTS. HE KNOWS THAT AN ARMED CLASH WITH TURKEY
WOULD BE A DISASTER FOR GREEK DEMOCRACY, BUT HE IS NOT
PREPARED TO SACRIFICE SUBSTANTIAL GREEK INTERESTS
IN THE AEGEAN TO AVOID ARMED CONFLICT. AS IN CYPRUS, THE
PROBLEM IS TO MOVE THE SITUATION BEYOND THE ACCEPTANCE OF
PRINCIPLES TO THEIR APPLICATION IN A CONCRETE SETTLEMENT.
18. U.S. INTERESTS IN GREECE ARE CLEAR: WE WANT TO SEE DEMOCRACY
STABILIZED, GREEK-TURKISH TENSIONS REDUCED, AND GREECE'S
ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND SECURITY PARTNERSHIP WITH THE WEST
STRENGTHENED. JOHN FOSTER DULLES TERMED GREECE A HOOKED FISH, WITH
NO ALTERNATIVE TO ITS AMERICAN ALLIANCE. EVEN TODAY GREECE HAS
NO OTHER EASY ALTERNATIVE, AND THE SOVIETS ARE CLEARLY PLAYING
FOR TURKISH, NOT GREEK, STAKES. BUT U.S.-GREEK RELATIONS COULD
ONCE AGAIN ENTER A DOWNWARD SPIRAL EVEN IF GREECE DOES NOT TURN
AWAY FROM THE WEST; THE GROWING SHADOW OF PAPANDREOU IS A REMINDER OF THE KIND OF DANGERS THAT COULD LIE AHEAD.
NOTE BY OC/T: NOT PASSED BOVE ADDRESSEES.
CONFIDENTIAL
NNN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01
ATHENS 00001 06 OF 06 011037Z
ACTION SS-25
------------------053381 011038Z /13
P R 010001Z JAN 78
FM AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY LISBON
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY REYKJAVIK
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY SOFIA
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
USMISSION USNATO
EXDIS
USOECD
USEEC
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02
ATHENS 00001 06 OF 06 011037Z
AND USDOCOSOUTH
19. FOR THE PRESENT WE HAVE NO GREATER ASSET IN GREECE THAN PRIME
MINISTER CARAMANLIS. A DIFFICULT, AT TIMES EMOTIONAL MAN WHOSE
POLITICAL SUPPORT IS GRADUALLY WANING, HE STILL REMAINS THE STRONGEST SINGLE LEADER OF THIS COUNTRY AND A MAN WHO SHARES
MANY OF
OUR OWN OBJECTIVES. OUR PROBLEM IS HOW TO MOVE HIM FURTHER IN
DIRECTIONS WE WOULD LIKE HIM TO GO. THE TEMPTATION IS TO PUT
HEAVY PRESSURE ON HIM. BUT IN DOING SO WE WOULD RISK BOTH PROVOKING HIM INTO EMOTIONAL, NEGATIVE POSITIONS AND HASTENING
THE
EROSION OF HIS DOMESTIC BASE. EVEN IF HE DID NOT FACE A STRENGTHENED AND ARTICULATE OPPOSITION, THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE
THAT
PRESSURE WOULD WORK -- HE IS STUBBORN AND MOVES ONLY WHEN HE
SEES A REAL PAYOUT FOR GREEK INTERESTS, AS HE DEFINES THEM. MOREOVER, WHILE THE GOG MIGHT EXAGGERATE HOW MUCH THE ELECTION
RESULTS HAVE RESTRICTED CARAMANLIS' FREEDOM TO MANEUVER, IT IS

TRUE THAT HE IS NOW FACING A TRULY EFFECTIVE OPPOSITION SPOKESMAN
AND THEREFORE MUST BE PRUDENT IN HIS ACTIONS. AND IN A COUNTRY
WHERE POTENT ANTI-AMERICANISM REMAINS SIMMERING BELOW THE SURFACE,
WE HAVE SPECIAL REASON TO WALK SOFTLY.
20. WE ARE ENTERING A PERIOD IN OUR RELATIONS WITH GREECE WHICH
COULD BECOME EVEN MORE DIFFICULT AND COMPLICATED THAN THE PAST
THREE YEARS. SINCE 1974 WE HAVE WISELY KEPT OUR HEADS DOWN IN
THE HOPE THAT THINGS WOULD IMPROVE -- AND THEY HAVE. NOW, CHANGE
AND MOVEMENT ARE UNDERWAY AS GREECE EMERGES FROM THE AFTERMATH OF
THE JUNTA YEARS. WHAT IS PRIMARILY REQUIRED ON OUR PART IS A
CONTINUING EFFORT TO REASSURE GREEKS AT ALL LEVELS THAT WE ARE
NOT SACRIFICING THEIR CONCERNS FOR THE SAKE OF OUR OWN INTERESTS
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03
ATHENS 00001 06 OF 06 011037Z
IN TURKEY. AMERICAN EVENHANDEDNESS TOWARDS THE AREA SEEMS SELFEVIDENT IN WASHINGTON; THAT CONCEPT IS DIFFICULT TO
COMPREHEND
FOR MOST GREEKS, WHO BELIEVE THAT IF SOMEONE IS NOT FULLY WITH
THEM HE MUST BE AGAINST THEM. IN APPLYING OUR MEDITERRANEAN
POLICY IN THE NEW YEAR WE WILL MAKE OUR PROBLEMS MORE INTRACTABLE
IF WE DISREGARD THIS UNFORTUNATE BUT REAL GREEK TENDENCY TO SEE
THINGS ONLY IN BLACK AND WHITE. NATURALLY WE WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO SIDE WITH THE GOG ON EVERY ISSUE THAT ARISES IN 1978, AND
WE MUST MOVE AHEAD FIRMLY WITH POLICIES DESIGNED TO RESTORE
STABILITY TO THE AREA AND OUR GOOD RELATIONS WITH ALL COUNTRIES
CONCERNED. BUT WE MUST PACKAGE OUR PRODUCT MORE ATTRACTIVELY,
FIND EFFECTIVE WAYS OF CONVINCING GREEKS THAT OUR EFFORTS WILL
PROTECT AND ENHANCE THEIR OWN NATIONAL INTERESTS, AND GUARD
AGAINST UNINTENDED AFFRONTS WHICH COULD FAN THE FLAMES OF ANTIAMERICANISM AGAIN AND MAKE MORE TENUOUS THE POSITION OF
CARAMANLIS
AS HE SEEKS TO NUDGE HIS NONE-TOO-EASY COUNTRY ALONG THE PATH
TO A STRONGER RELATIONSHIP WITH THE WEST.
MILLS
NOTE BY OC/TV NOT PASSED ABOVE ADDRESSEES.
CONFIDENTIAL
NNN
Metadata
--Automatic Decaptioning: Z
Capture Date: 01 jan 1994
Channel Indicators: n/a
Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
Concepts: SPEECHES
Control Number: n/a
Copy: SINGLE
Draft Date: 01 jan 1978
Decaption Date: 20 Mar 2014
Decaption Note: 25 YEAR REVIEW
Disposition Action: RELEASED
Disposition Approved on Date: ''
Disposition Case Number: n/a
Disposition Comment: 25 YEAR REVIEW
Disposition Date: 20 Mar 2014
Disposition Event: ''
Disposition History: n/a
Disposition Reason: ''
Disposition Remarks: ''
Document Number: 1978ATHENS00001
Document Source: CORE
Document Unique ID: '00'
Drafter: n/a
Enclosure: DG ALTERED
Executive Order: GS
Errors: N/A
Expiration: ''
Film Number: D780004-1062
Format: TEL
From: ATHENS USOECD
Handling Restrictions: ''
Image Path: ''
ISecure: '1'
Legacy Key: link1978/newtext/t197801107/aaaadmlp.tel
Line Count: ! '734 Litigation Code IDs:'
Litigation Codes: ''
Litigation History: ''
Locator: TEXT ON-LINE, ON MICROFILM
Message ID: a156f2de-c288-dd11-92da-001cc4696bcc
Office: ACTION SS
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL
Original Handling Restrictions: EXDIS
Original Previous Classification: n/a
Original Previous Handling Restrictions: n/a
Page Count: '14'
Previous Channel Indicators: n/a
Previous Classification: CONFIDENTIAL

Previous Handling Restrictions: EXDIS
Reference: n/a
Retention: '0'
Review Action: RELEASED, APPROVED
Review Content Flags: ''
Review Date: 24 may 2005
Review Event: ''
Review Exemptions: n/a
Review Media Identifier: ''
Review Release Date: n/a
Review Release Event: n/a
Review Transfer Date: ''
Review Withdrawn Fields: n/a
SAS ID: '3693205'
Secure: OPEN
Status: NATIVE
Subject: CONSTANTINE CARAMANLIS
TAGS: PGOV, GR
To: STATE
Type: TE
vdkvgwkey: odbc://SAS/SAS.dbo.SAS_Docs/a156f2de-c288-dd11-92da-001cc4696bcc
Review Markings: ! ' Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State
EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014'
Markings: Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic
Review 20 Mar 2014 Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State
EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014
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Wikileaks Athens 1978

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Wikileaks Athens 1978

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1978 January 1, 00:00 (Sunday)

Type: TE - Telegram (cable)

From: ATHENS USOECD | GREEC E ATHENS

Markings: Sheryl P. Walter

To: BELGIUM BRUS S ELS | BULGARIA S OF IA |

ATHENS 00001 01 OF 06 010941Z

OUTCOME IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON FOUR

Australia - The Age

Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014

LIKELY TO BE CHOSEN. WITH HIS NEW STAKE IN PRESERVING THE PRESENT

VAST CHANGES ARE GOING TO BE REQUIRED SO THAT ECONOMIES OF

--- GREECE IS ON THE BRINK OF JOINING THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY. IF

THE GREEK ECONOMY HAS BEEN OUTPERFORMING ITS WESTERN EUROPEAN

--- THE U.S.-GREEK DCA IS STILL PENDING. CARAMANLIS APPARENTLY

ALLIANCE HIS STRONG PREFERENCE;

RESULTS HAVE RESTRICTED CARAMANLIS' FREEDOM TO MANEUVER, IT IS

Previous Classification: CONFIDENTIAL

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