Académique Documents
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625
Saint Paul, Minnesota
COMMITTEE OF THE BOARD MEETING
Administration Building
360 Colborne Street
January 13, 2015
4:30 PM
A G E N D A
I. CALL TO ORDER
A. Introductions
II. AGENDA
A. OPEB Trust
Time Certain 4:30 p.m.
1. Introduction
2. Presentation
3. Discussion
4. Action (Acceptance of Report)
B. FY 2014 Auditor's Report
1. Introduction
2. Presentation
3. Discussion
4. Action (Acceptance of Audit Report)
C. Long Range Demographic Study
1. Introduction
2. Presentation
3. Discussion
4. Action (Board Input)
D. Update on Substitute Teacher System
1. Introduction
2. Presentation
3. Discussion
4. Action (Board Input)
38
45
3. Discussion
4. Action (TBD)
F. Standing Item: Policy Update
1. Gender Inclusion Policy
G. Standing Item: PLTT Update-No presentation
H. Standing Item: SSSC 2.0 Update-No presentation
I. Work Session
1. Board Check-In
2. 2015 Board Budget
3. Board Committee Assignments to Outside Organizations
4. Listening Sessions- Renaming & next steps
5. Finalize Plans for Winter Retreat
III. ADJOURNMENT
56
Why?
How?
Who?
SPPS
Continued >
Saint Paul Public Schools | District Service Facility, 1930 Como Avenue, Saint Paul, MN 55108
651-744-1800 | facilities@spps.org | facilities.spps.org/fmp | November 2014
Capital investments such as the potential need for more or different school facilities.
Preparation to meet growing student needs such as multilingual programming for refugee and
immigrant communities.
How? To fully capture the complexity of issues that affect student enrollment, two distinct enrollment
projection models will be employed:
1) Cohort Survival Method: This model is based on historical patterns of overall student enrollment
and retention from one grade to the next. This is the method used for SPPS annual projections,
though the 10-year model would include additional information to understand factors that could
shift existing patterns. For example, this method could provide insight as to what extent the Karen
community might stay in St. Paul or move to the suburbs and to what extent Karen students might
open enroll into or out of SPPS schools.
2) Housing Unit Method: This method examines the number and type of housing in a particular area
and the number of school-aged children in each housing type. This method helps to understand how
many students will be in the city beyond the current birth rates, and can help predict demographic
changes when there are changes in housing. For example, certain types of apartments tend to
attract families to the city, while condos may attract adults without school-age children. It should
be noted that perhaps for the first time in decades, St. Paul housing patterns will change
considerably due to the mixed-use housing development planned on the former Ford property as
well as increased density along the Green Line light rail corridor. The housing unit method will help
to understand how much this will impact the number of school-age children in Saint Paul.
TIMELINE
Phase 1 December 2014: Enrollment projections by grade for 10 years into the future for the district
as a whole and for each of the districts six geographic Areas.
Phase 2 February 2015: Enrollment projections by grade, school-by-school, for 10 years.
Phase 3 Spring 2015: Creation and transition of enrollment projection model to SPPS staff for on-going
use and re-calibration as trend data evolves.
QUESTIONS TO CONSIDER
Does this new model produce dramatically different results from our current projections?
How does the housing model explain this variance?
If the new model does indicate a significant difference in projections, to what extent will housing
patterns inform district projections going forward?
Saint Paul Public Schools | District Service Facility, 1930 Como Avenue, Saint Paul, MN 55108
651-744-1800 | facilities@spps.org | facilities.spps.org/fmp | November 2014
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Hazel H. Reinhardt
January 13, 2015
Specialized
Programs
ECFE
K-12
Pre-K
ALCs
This analysis:
Focuses on the factors that
influence K-12 enrollment
Quantifies:
Kindergarten enrollment
Cohort survival and net
migration of students in each
grade
The impact of housing types
and development
The next phase of the analysis:
Will refine the student profile,
factoring in race and poverty
information.
Will project enrollment schoolby-school, not just by geographic
areas
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In the past ten years, enrollment decreased by -1,734
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Enrollment projected to increase 4.2 to 8.2 percent in the next
ten years
Enrollment will increase by no less than 400 students in the next five
years
Growth is faster in the second five projection years as the number of
kindergarten students increases
SUMMARY
The City of Saint Paul estimates that
2,600 multi-family units will be built in the next five
years
10
TOTAL ENROLLMENT
43000
41000
39000
37000
11
35000
33000
PROJECTED
ACTUAL
31000
29000
27000
Actual
24-25
22-23
20-21
18-19
SCHOOL YEAR
16-17
14-15
12-13
10-11
08-09
06-07
04-05
25000
12
Education marketplace
Education choices
Nonpublic
Public
Open enrollment
Charter schools
ALCs, etc.
13
14
Fall to Fall
Natural
Increase/Decrease
Net
Migration
2005 to 2006
-461
-1.2
654
-1,115
2006 to 2007
-819
-2.2
423
-1,242
2007 to 2008
-1,075
-2.9
519
-1,594
2008 to 2009
-352
-1.0
547
-899
2009 to 2010
-192
-0.5
580
-772
2010 to 2011
409
1.2
728
-319
2011 to 2012
67
0.2
1,015
-948
2012 to 2013
600
1.7
1,157
-557
2013 to 2014
89
0.2
991
-902
Total
-1,734
6,614
-8,348
15
EDUCATION CHOICES
2012-13
Minnesota
Saint Paul
9.5%
14.2%
Traditional schools
7.7%
13.7%
Home schools
1.8%
0.5%
In
7.2%
2.7% (equivalent)
Out
7.2%
4.7%
4.5%
13.1%
78.7% (n.a.)
61.8% (65.8%)
Nonpublic settings
16
Public Options
Open enrollment
Charter schools
Capture Rate (with ALCs)
MACRO TRENDS
17
Aging population
Less mobility
Decrease in school age population per household
Shift in size of adult age groups
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
6000
KINDERGARTEN POOL
5000
4000
19
3000
2000
1000
0
Other
SPPS
Birth Years
KINDERGARTEN POOL
20
Kindergarten Pool
Percentage
Kindergarten
1999; 2000
5,123
62.5%
2005-06
2000; 2001
5,123
61.9%
2006-07
2001; 2002
5,062
57.9%
2007-08
2002; 2003
5,084
60.8%
2008-09
2003; 2004
5,060
61.5%
2009-10
2004; 2005
5,123
60.5%
2010-11
2005; 2006
5,199
62.1%
2011-12
2006; 2007
5,229
65.6%
2012-13
2007; 2008
5,276
66.1%
2013-14
2008; 2009
5,160
64.7%
2014-15
2009; 2010
4,988
2015-16
2010; 2011
5,027
2016-17
2011; 2012
5,154
2017-18
2012; 2013
5,207
2018-19
21
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
K to 1
1 to 2
2 to 3
3 to 4
4 to 5
5 to 6
6 to 7
7 to 8
8 to 9
9 to 10
10 to 11
11 to 12
23
Grade
05 to 06
06 to 07
07 to 08
08 to 09
09 to 10
10 to 11
11 to 12
12 to 13
13 to 14
K to 1
-24
-71
-43
-83
-31
-39
-29
-112
-176
1 to 2
-81
-123
-156
-79
-100
-45
-76
-75
-113
2 to 3
-39
-46
-105
-68
-51
-59
-86
-84
-90
3 to 4
-44
-51
-100
-86
-67
-23
-95
-83
-86
4 to 5
-89
-128
-170
-123
-113
-107
-125
-19
-94
5 to 6
-190
-115
-200
-146
-151
-80
-168
-164
-261
6 to 7
-158
-131
-193
-124
-67
-61
-111
-35
-34
7 to 8
-102
-64
-42
39
-6
-11
8 to 9
161
209
76
93
138
194
97
223
146
9 to 10
-93
-132
-57
36
-79
-36
10 to 11
-241
-294
-258
-155
-121
-28
-116
-32
11 to 12
-311
-335
-271
-144
-153
-146
-154
-143
-184
Total
-1,115
-1,242
-1,594
-899
-772
-319
-948
-557
-902
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
39,500
39,000
38,500
38,000
24
37,500
37,000
36,500
36,000
35,500
35,000
34,500
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
LK/LM
2018-19
LK/HM
2019-20
2020-21
HK/LM
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25
HK/HM
These projections are K-12 only, and do not factor in ALCs, early childhood education, and other specialized programs. Those programs
account for approximately 1,800 additional students in 2014-2015.
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
K-5
6-8
9-12
Total
18,473
7,377
10,190
36,040
18,173
8,052
10,226
36,450
18,493
8,118
10,128
36,739
18,582
8,052
10,226
36,860
18,910
8,118
10,128
37,156
18,969
7,721
10,862
37,551
19,304
7,949
10,931
38,183
19,474
7,927
10,933
38,335
19,818
8,162
11,003
38,983
2014-15
2019-20
25
2024-25
These projections are K-12 only, and do not factor in ALCs, early childhood education, and other specialized programs. Those programs
account for approximately 1,800 additional students in 2014-2015.
26
Area
2014-15
2019-20
6,425
6,812
387
6.0
5,338
5,550
212
4.0
6,181
5,929
-252
-4.1
1,923
1,792
-131
-6.8
5,172
5,558
386
7.5
F1
7,303
7,365
62
0.8
F2
2,160
2,341
181
8.4
Total
34,502
35,347
845
2.4
+6%
+7%
27
+1%
-7%
+4%
+8%
28
A
B
100
D
E
-100
F1
-200
F2
-300
Grades K-5
Grades 6-8
Grades 9-12
E
F1
F2
C
D
A
B
29
K-5
F1
F2
Total
2014-15
3,247
2,640
3,015
1,059
2,758
3,745
1,117
17,581
2019-20
3,353
2,768
3,019
988
2,942
3,567
1,136
17,773
106
128
-71
154
-178
19
192
2014-15
1,342
1,134
1,278
379
1,059
1,466
480
7,138
2019-20
1,613
1,165
1,225
405
1,197
1,605
579
7,787
271
31
-53
26
138
139
99
649
2014-15
1,836
1,564
1,888
485
1,355
2,092
563
9,783
2019-20
1,846
1,618
1,685
399
1,419
2,192
626
9,785
10
54
-203
-186
64
100
63
6-8
9-12
HOUSING YIELDS
Saint Paul Public Schools
Housing Type by Student Yield
Units*
K-12
Students
K-12
Yield
56,967
20,087
0.35
992
194
0.20
49,329^
10,386
0.21^
Condos
696
196
0.28
Duplex
11,320
3,463
0.31
1,191
176
0.15
120,795^
34,502
0.29^
Housing Type
30
Single-Family Detached
Single-Family Attached**
Apartments
Split Duplex
Total
*As of July 2014
**Townhomes
^Estimate
PROJECTION COMPARISONS
Projections
2019-20
31
Area
Cohort Survival
Housing Unit
Difference
6,812
6,868
56
5,550
5,706
156
5,929
6,312
383
1,792
1,898
106
5,558
5,291
-267
F1
7,365
7,255
-110
F2
2,341
2,136
-205
Total
35,347
35,466
119
32
QUESTIONS?
33
AGENDA
How enrollment
projections will be used
in the FMP process
34
Provide context on
student profile and
factors that influence
student migration
Inform milestones for
critical interventions
Questions?
37
Substitute Update
38
Agenda
39
Data
Monthly Fill Rates
82%
Dec
83%
Nov
3546
3255
Dec
88%
3819
3699
Nov
91%
ToC
40
ToC
85%
Oct
SPPS
93%
2851
2346
95%
0
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
SPPS
3601
Sept
88%
Sept
4480
Oct
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
100%
41
Teachers on Call was able to provide 200 or more subs 14 times this
school year. SPPS provided 200 or more subs 12 times during same period
last year.
In 2013 the average need for days over 200 was 230.5 with a high need of
295. In 2014 the average need for days over 200 was 242.3 with a high
need of 296.
42
43
Short
Term
Mid
Term
Long
Term
QUESTIONS
44
45
COB
January 13, 2015
Rev Hillstrom
Assistant Director, Office of Teaching and Learning
47
49
Office of Accountability
Department of Research, Evaluation and Assessment
rea.spps.org
Kindergarten Norms
- Top 10% Composite at district and building
CogAT7 2014-15
Students Tested
6105
*Non-SPPS Students
Tested
23
1182
51
*There were three test dates available for non-spps students staffed with TDAS staff
members.
Office of Accountability
Department of Research, Evaluation and Assessment
rea.spps.org
KINDERGARTEN
52
2011-12
NNAT
2012-13
CogAT 7
2013-14
CogAT 7
2014-15
CogAT 7
OVERALL
American Indian
Asian American
Hispanic
African American
Caucasian
Students of Color/AI
19.9%
11.9%
19.0%
18.9%
7.3%
36.0%
13.9%
18.2%
14.9%
12.9%
10.2%
6.8%
43.5%
9.8%
15.0%
14.3%
14.6%
9.4%
7.5%
28.4%
10.6%
15.1%
8.8%
14.9%
9.9%
7.5%
30.3%
10.8%
OVERALL
American Indian
Asian American
Hispanic
African American
Caucasian
Students of Color/AI
2011-12
NNAT
3.0%
8.9%
3.8%
2.5%
0.9%
5.3%
2.5%
OVERALL
American Indian
Asian American
Hispanic
African American
Caucasian
Students of Color/AI
2011-12
NNAT
9.0%
16.7%
8.3%
5.6%
5.6%
15.3%
6.1%
OVERALL
American Indian
Asian American
Hispanic
African American
Caucasian
Students of Color/AI
2011-12
NNAT
12.5%
11.4%
11.7%
10.1%
4.5%
22.3%
8.4%
GRADE 2
2012-13
2013-14
CogAT 7
CogAT 7
16.6%
21.7%
21.2%
22.2%
11.8%
23.1%
18.3%
18.9%
10.2%
10.3%
33.9%
44.5%
12.6%
16.6%
ALL OTHER GRADES
2012-13
2013-14
CogAT 7
CogAT 7
34.9%
37.4%
30.0%
30.0%
31.7%
39.9%
27.6%
31.7%
24.6%
29.6%
51.1%
50.9%
27.9%
33.8%
All GRADES
2012-13
2013-14
CogAT 7
CogAT 7
19.6%
20.1%
18.6%
19.1%
14.5%
21.0%
15.2%
15.3%
10.0%
11.4%
41.8%
35.9%
12.9%
15.7%
2014-15
CogAT 7
22.4%
9.8%
25.9%
17.6%
14.7%
40.8%
19.0%
2014-15
CogAT 7
40.0%
33.3%
46.0%
39.3%
29.1%
50.6%
36.0%
2014-15
CogAT 7
19.3%
11.1%
20.6%
14.2%
11.8%
35.1%
15.5%
KINDERGARTEN
District
71.9%
OVERALL
GRADE 2
Number of
Identified
Building Students
28.1%
481
District
91.2%
Number of
Identified
Building Students
8.8%
555
District
93.8%
Number of
Identified
Building Students
6.3%
112
ALL GRADES
District
83.4%
Number of
Identified
Building Students
16.6%
1148
Gender
Ethnicity
Female
71.0%
29.0%
259
92.8%
7.2%
292
94.8%
5.2%
58
83.7%
16.3%
609
Male
73.0%
27.0%
222
89.4%
10.6%
263
92.6%
7.4%
54
82.9%
17.1%
539
20.0%
66.7%
33.3%
69.2%
30.8%
13
American Indian
53
60.0%
40.0%
80.0%
Asian American
61.3%
38.7%
142
92.5%
7.5%
187
89.7%
10.3%
29
79.9%
20.1%
358
Hispanic
60.9%
39.1%
46
82.6%
17.4%
69
100.0%
0.0%
11
76.2%
23.8%
126
African American
44.7%
55.3%
76
87.4%
12.6%
135
90.0%
10.0%
30
74.3%
25.7%
241
Caucasian
91.5%
8.5%
212
96.9%
3.1%
159
100.0%
0.0%
39
94.4%
5.6%
410
SOC/AI
56.5%
43.5%
269
88.9%
11.1%
396
90.4%
9.6%
73
93.8%
6.3%
112
English
80.2%
19.8%
324
92.8%
7.2%
318
95.5%
4.5%
67
87.3%
12.7%
709
Hmong
48.1%
51.9%
54
89.6%
10.4%
96
88.2%
11.8%
17
76.0%
24.0%
167
Spanish
58.3%
41.7%
36
80.0%
20.0%
45
100.0%
0.0%
72.4%
27.6%
87
Other
58.2%
41.8%
67
92.7%
7.3%
96
90.9%
9.1%
22
80.0%
20.0%
185
No
80.1%
19.9%
327
92.6%
7.4%
363
93.8%
6.3%
80
87.4%
12.6%
770
Yes
54.5%
45.5%
154
88.5%
11.5%
192
93.8%
6.3%
32
75.1%
24.9%
378
No
72.1%
27.9%
466
90.8%
9.2%
532
93.6%
6.4%
109
83.2%
16.8%
1107
Yes
66.7%
33.3%
15
100.0%
0.0%
23
100.0%
0.0%
87.8%
12.2%
41
Not Eligible
90.0%
50.7%
10.0%
49.3%
260
221
98.4%
87.3%
1.6%
12.7%
3
46
96.5%
90.9%
3.5%
9.1%
57
55
93.9%
75.0%
6.1%
25.0%
509
639
Home Language
ELL
Special Ed
Lunch Status
Free or Reduced
Finding a better balance between access to services across the system versus
access at particular schools
55
Kindergarten screener does not have much utility beyond identification for Capitol Hill
eligibility
Building a culture where CogAT results are used for more than eligibility for specialized
services or enrollment
Review the multi-year impact of CogAT on identification trends and make recommendations
in SY 15-16 regarding future implementation
Continually monitor identification and implementation data through a racial equity lens
Board of Education
External Committee Appointments
2014
Association of Metropolitan School Districts (AMSD)
1667 Snelling Ave. N., Ste. B301, St. Paul 55108
Phone: 651-999-7325
Board Representative:
Chue Vue
Jackie Statum-Allen, Superintendent Designee
Childrens Collaborative
% Advance Consulting (Laurie Davis)
10 Russell Court, Minneapolis, MN 55419
Phone: 651-266-4266
SPCC@advance-consulting.com
Board Representatives:
Superintendents Designee:
Jean OConnell
Jackie Turner
Mary Doran
Anne Carroll
Superintendent
Keith Hardy
Louise Seeba
John Brodrick
Chue Vue
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56
Mary Doran
Anne Carroll
Keith Hardy
MPLS
John Brodrick
Mary Doran
Keith Hardy
Revised 2/6/2014
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John Brodrick