Tappahannock is the 10th Most Dangerous Place

in Virginia??????????
A website known as RoadSnacks recently published an article titled
These Are The 10 Most Dangerous Places in Virginia. Like most residents
of Tappahannock and Essex County, I was rather surprised to see
Tappahannock listed as the tenth most dangerous place in Virginia.
Ranked just three places behind Richmond (which not that long ago
competed for U.S. Murder Capital) and one place behind Petersburg.
Rankings can be fun and entertaining. RoadSnacks has other
rankings such as These Are The 10 Most Redneck Cities in Tennessee and
These are the 10 Places in North Carolina That Need a Hug.
And to the articles credit, it does acknowledge there was a 15% drop
in property crime from 2012 to 2013. But a quote Mark Twain made
famous came to mind when reading this article: There are three kinds of
lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. The article said we didnt want to
rely on speculation and opinion. Instead we looked at hard numbers from
the FBIs last three years of reporting. Specifically, the article points to the
FBIs Uniform Crime Report.
The article did not point out that its primary source, the FBIs
Uniform Crime Report, issues a Caution Against Rankings, which states
[T]the FBI has a long-standing policy against ranking.on the basis of
crime data alone. Despite repeated warnings against these practices, some
data users continue to challenge and misunderstand this position. The
report goes on to say Data users should not rank locales because there are
many factors that cause the nature and type of crime to vary from place to
place.
The methodology was also interesting. The article indicates we only
analyzed places with populations of more than 1,000 people. Because in
our opinion, rate statistics become too variable for places with under 1,000
people where one violent crime can swing a places rank dramatically. It
would be fair to say the same is true for a town with 2,398 people. For
example, a series of burglaries in town at any given time can have an
inflated effect on our per capita property crime statistics.

Additionally, while the Town of Tappahannock is very small, it is a

major commercial hub for the area. With a vast array of small businesses
as well as large retailers like Wal-Mart, Peebles, Food Lion, and Lowes in a
town of 2,398 people, along with the town being situated at the intersection
of two major highways, you would expect to see a larger amount of property
crimes than a comparable sized town. This is why the FBI cautions
against generating rankings off its Uniform Crime Report.
According to the report, there were 123 property crimes in
Tappahannock in 2013. Some perspective: that means there was a property
crime in Town once every three days (2.9674 if you want to get specific).
There were 5 violent crimes in Tappahannock in 2013. That means a violent
crime occurred once every 73 days (no rounding on this one).
There is plenty of crime in Tappahannock and Essex County. Believe
me, I know. But having worked in the City of Richmond as a prosecutor, to
suggest Tappahannock is even in the same ball park as City of Richmond in
terms of dangerousness is absurd. The article also equates property crimes
with violent crimes in terms of danger for citizens. Headlines like Most
Dangerous Places in Virginia are meant to get you to click the article. After
the headline, remember to proceed with caution.

Vince Donoghue
Commonwealths Attorney1
Essex County2

What everyone else calls District Attorney"

For those who are not familiar with the area, Tappahannock is an incorporated town in Essex County and is the
County Seat
1
2