William Steinmetz

Avalanche 1 Forecast summary

Forecast table
Table 1 January 7, 2014
BOTTOM LINE
Most terrain has a LOW danger. Pockets of MODERATE danger exist above 9500'. Avalanches may
be possible in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Continue to practice safe travel protocol in steep terrain.

Type: 1 persistent slab.

Aspect: NW thru NE above 9500
moderate, Low
Likelihood: unlikely
Size: Medium
Trend: Same
Notes: Most terrain has a LOW danger.
Pockets of MODERATE danger exist
above 9500'. Avalanches may be possible
in isolated areas or extreme terrain.
Continue to practice safe travel protocol in
steep terrain

Type: 2 wind slab

NE thru SE above 9500
Unlikely 1
Small
Increasing danger
Notes: Pockets of wind slab are found in
the high alpine terrain; ski and slope cuts
on test slopes should give representative
terrain.

Table 2 January 8, 2014

BOTTOM LINE

INCREASING AVALANCHE DANGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. For today

there is a MODERATE avalanche danger. Human triggered avalanches are possible in
localized areas. Avoid slopes over 35 degrees in steepness with recent deposits of wind
drifted snow on lee sides of the higher ridges. Keep in mind that there is an abundance of
very weak faceted snow that is being covered up with new snow and wind drifted snow.
Type: Persistent slab
Aspect: NW-NE moderated above 9500 low below 9000
Likelihood: Unlikely
Size: medium
Trend: Increasing
Notes: The persistent weak layers are basically dormant right now. Exceptions perhaps would be in the
upper elevation lee sides of ridges where wind has formed slabs. This will most likely change as we add
more snow this week. These layers will most likely produce human triggered avalanches at some point. I
doubt today will be very dangerous but if you have been getting into steeper terrain recently, you will
want to change your habits as we build a slab this week.

William Steinmetz

Table 3 January 9, 2014

BOTTOM LINE
It is a day of increasing avalanche danger. This mornings MODERATE avalanche danger will increase to
CONSIDERABLE this afternoon, with heavier snowfall and stronger winds.

New snow slides will become easy to trigger on steep slopes of all aspects, with naturals possible.

Wind drifts will increase in size and should be avoided on steep slopes. Drifts will be most
widespread at the upper elevations.

Slab avalanches breaking on persistent weak layer - in isolated places, a smaller slide may step
down, breaking out a large dangerous slide failing on a more deeply buried faceted weak layer.

Solution: once again back off the steep slopes, and enjoy the lower angle slopes where the great
powder is filling in the old tracks.

Type: 1 snow storm

Aspect: NNW- NE
Moderate from 8000-9500

2 Wind slab
NE- SE Moderate above
9000

Likelihood: unlikely 2
Size: medium
Trend: Increasing danger
Notes: New snow soft slab
avalanches and loose snow
sluffs will be the most
widespread avalanche
activity today. The
sensitivity of the snow will
dramatically increase this
afternoon, as snowfall rates
and winds intensify. Be
alert for periods of heavy
snowfall this is when the
snow will be the most
reactive, and slides will be
easiest to trigger, with a few
naturals possible. New
snow avalanches are
possible on steep slopes
of all aspects.

Unlikely 2
Medium
Increasing danger
NOTES: The increasing
winds today through tonight
will have abundant new
snow to drift, layering it
into dense, cracky slabs that
will be easily triggered. The
higher you go in elevation,
the deeper and more
widespread the wind drifts
will be, especially on slopes
facing the east of the
compass. Also watch for
drifting in exposed mid
elevation terrain, along
gully walls, around subridges and at mid-slope
break overs.

Persistent slab
NW-SE Considerable above
9500 Moderate below 9500
to 8000
Unlikley1
Medium
Increasing danger

William Steinmetz

Table 4 January 10, 2014

Bottom Line
The avalanche danger is HIGH on steep wind drifted slopes at the upper elevations,
and CONSIDERABLE on most other steep mid and upper elevation slopes. Dangerous avalanche
conditions exist: New snow and wind slab avalanches are a given today on steep slopes. Slides also
have the potential to break out into the weak layers mid pack and near the ground, creating very
large avalanches. Backcountry travel is only recommended for people with excellent route finding and
snowpack evaluation skills, who can stay off of and out from underneath steep slopes
Many of the Wasatch ice climbs are in avalanche paths be aware of what is above you. Natural
avalanches can release and hit you.

Type: 1 Wind slab

Aspect: NE-S high above 9500, SW-S
considerable at 9500, Considerable NESW,
8500, Moderate NESW, 8000
Likelihood: Likely
Size: Medium
Trend: Increasing
Notes: Sensitive wind slabs and new snow
soft slab avalanches will continue to be the
most widespread avalanche activity today.
Strong winds overnight have drifted the
snow into sensitive slabs some of these
may release naturally, as they did yesterday
afternoon. Others are waiting for a trigger,
which could be you. Any period of heavier
snowfall or stronger winds will create a
spike in the instability today. New snow
avalanches are possible on steep slopes
of all aspects. Any new snow slide has the
potential to step down into the more deeply
buried weak layers, creating a much larger,
deeper slide.

2 Deep slab
Considerable at or above 8000-9500 NE-ENW-SE, Moderate at or below 8000 NWN-NE-E-SE
Unlikely 2
L medium
Increasing
Multiple faceted weak layers, including
those around buried rain and rime crusts,
exist both mid pack and near the ground.
These weak layers are gradually getting
overloaded, and may be triggered by a
person or a smaller slide. Any slide failing
mid pack or near the ground would be large
and probably unsurvivable. Some of these
slides could be triggered from a distance or
from below, so be aware of the steepness of
the slopes you are connected to.