Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Methodology
Tranfsforming
TSR
concep1on
to
Real
Sectors
Economic
Measurement
Forum
Discussion:
Establishing
of
Islamic
Methodology
and
Its
Implementa1on
in
the
real
secort
economic
Jadi
Suriadi
Cecep
Sudrajat
M.
Zulhilmi
Objec1ve
q1.
Premis
1#
TSR
:
Complexity
and
Endogeneity
(iden1fy
and
analysis
of
social
science
variables,
in
nature
rela1on)
q 2.
Premis
2#
TSR
:
Par1cipatory
Among
Agents
(
ew
paradigm
of
mathema1cal
formula
in
social
science)
q 3.
Premis
3#
TSR
:
Social
Wellbeing
Func1on
:
(knowledge
induced-,
general
formula
of
social
wellbeing
model
or
maslahah)
q 4.
Measurement
and
Tools
(
modied
balance
scorecard/MBSC
and
discrete
simula1on)
q 5.
Research
Reviewed
t=tn
t=t3
t=t2
t=t1
t=t0
Star1ng Point
Basic understading
System
(Xi)
1) The
number
of
elements
(variables,
agents,
sub-systems)
are
suciently
large.
Moreover,
the
variables
interact
dynamically,
and
the
interacBons
can
be
physical
or
involve
the
exchange
of
informaBon.
2) Such
interacBons
are
rich,
i.e.
any
variables
or
sub-system
in
the
system
is
aected
by
and
aects
several
other
elements
or
sub-systems
3) The
interacBons
are
non-linear.
Small
changes
in
inputs,
physical
interacBons
or
sBmuli
can
cause
large
eects
or
very
signicant
changes
in
outputs
4) Any
interacBons
can
feed
back
into
itself
directly
or
aVer
a
number
of
intervening
stages.
Such
feedback
can
vary
in
quality.
5) Such
systems
may
be
open
and
it
may
be
dicult
or
impossible
to
dene
system
boundaries
6) Complex
systems
operate
under
far
from
equilibrium
condiBons
7) Complex
systems
have
a
history.
They
evolve
and
their
past
is
co-responsible
for
their
present
behavior.
8) There
are
many
equaBons
generated
as
simultaneously.
(David
Orrell,
2012)
Interpresta1on:
1) Under
simultaneous
equaBons,
the
system
enterpretate
as
below:
And so on
Resume:
1) Simultaneous
equaBons
and
SEM
are
valid
mathemaBcal
operaBon.
Very
good
for
staBsBcal
purpose.
But
it
congure
secondary
(historical)
data
only.
2) Basic
calculaBon
sBll
on
linier
(or
event
transforming
to
log
or
natural
log
already).
It
simplify
the
nature
of
system
under
complexity
and
endogeneity.
TSR
Premise:
#2
:
Par1cipatory
Among
Agents
Basic
understanding
:
1) MathemaBcal
in
social
science,
is
too
complicated
to
gure
out
under
saBsed
mathemaBc
formula.
Many
cases
of
the
formula
is
very
good
but
wrong
in
the
asumpBon
of
variable.
(David
orrell,
2012)
2)
MathemaBcal
in
social
science,
must
congure
the
essence
of
parBcipatory
among
agents
in
the
dened
system
(Prof.
Masdul).
3) MathemaBcal
in
social
scince,
must
congure
the
essence
of
pairness
or
complementary
relaBon
of
the
components
(Prof.
Sofyan
SH).
4) MathemaBcal
in
social
science
must
be
simple
and
easy
to
operate/run
in
the
reality.
Can
operate
by
using
kalkulator
tukang
sayur
(jadi/
cecep/zulhilmi).
5) In
reality
variables
of
social
science
is
very
complex
e.g.
crisis
2008
in
USA
is
reex
that
the
behaviour
of
market/individu
is
not
or
can
not
well
dened
in
the
economic
variables
(David).
6) OVen,
secondary
data
will
not
provide
a
complete
soluBon
to
a
research
problems
(Robert
Lomas,
2011).
7) So,
how
to
construct
mathemaBcal
gure
in
social
science
?
TSR
Premise:
#2
:
Par1cipatory
Among
Agents
TSR
Premise:
#2
:
Par1cipatory
Among
Agents
X1 =k1 .X1+k 2.X2+ k 3.X3 + k 4.X4 +k5 X5+ k 6.X6+ k 7.X7+ k 8.X8 + k9 .X9 +k10X10+k 11 .X11
X2 =k1 .X1+k 2.X2+ k 3.X3 + k 4.X4 +k5 X5+ k 6.X6+ k 7.X7+ k 8.X8 + k9 .X9 +k10X10+k 11 .X11
X3 =k1 .X1+k 2.X2+ k 3.X3 + k 4.X4 +k5 X5+ k 6.X6+ k 7.X7+ k 8.X8 + k9 .X9 +k10X10+k 11 .X11
X4 =k1 .X1+k 2.X2+ k 3.X3 + k 4.X4 +k5 X5+ k 6.X6+ k 7.X7+ k 8.X8 + k9 .X9 +k10X10+k 11 .X11
X5 =k1 .X1+k 2.X2+ k 3.X3 + k 4.X4 +k5 X5+ k 6.X6+ k 7.X7+ k 8.X8 + k9 .X9 +k10X10+k 11 .X11
X6 =k1 .X1+k 2.X2+ k 3.X3 + k 4.X4 +k5 X5+ k 6.X6+ k 7.X7+ k 8.X8 + k9 .X9 +k10X10+k 11 .X11
X7 =k1 .X1+k 2.X2+ k 3.X3 + k 4.X4 +k5 X5+ k 6.X6+ k 7.X7+ k 8.X8 + k9 .X9 +k10X10+k 11 .X11
X8 =k1 .X1+k 2.X2+ k 3.X3 + k 4.X4 +k5 X5+ k 6.X6+ k 7.X7+ k 8.X8 + k9 .X9 +k10X10+k 11 .X11
X9 =k1 .X1+k 2.X2+ k 3.X3 + k 4.X4 +k5 X5+ k 6.X6+ k 7.X7+ k 8.X8 + k9 .X9 +k10X10+k 11 .X11
X10=k 1.X1 +k2 .X2 + k3 .X3+ k4 .X4+k 5X5 + k6 .X6 + k7 .X 7+ k8 .X8+ k 9.X9+k10 X10 +k11 .X11
X11=k 1.X1 +k2 .X2 + k3 .X3+ k4 .X4+k 5X5 + k6 .X6 + k7 .X 7+ k8 .X8+ k 9.X9+k10 X10 +k11 .X11
v The
model
comply
to
econometric
method
under
VECM
(vector
error
correcBon
model)
and
module
FEVD
(forecast
error
variance
decomposiBon)
TSR
Premise:
#2
:
Par1cipatory
Among
Agents
Figure
out
the
out
come
:
Variance Decomposition
Percent LNW v ariance due to LNIP
100
100
100
80
80
80
60
60
60
40
40
40
20
20
20
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
10
15
20
25
30
35
10
15
20
25
30
35
80
60
40
20
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
35
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Xi
Xi
Xi
Xi
Xi
Xi
betwwen
economic
agent
as
they
buy,
sell
and
trade
the
goods
and
services.
The
model
economy
therefor
emerge
from
the
ac6ons
of
the
individual
agent,
just
as
it
does
in
real
life.
The
aim
is
not
to
make
abstract
mathema6cal
proofs
of
stability
of
other
proper6es,
as
with
the
Arrow-Debreu
model,
but
instead
to
use
the
model
as
kind
of
experimental
laboratoey
for
trying
out
ideas.
There
is
plenty
of
empirical
evidence
to
show
that
simple
model
make
be?er
predic6on
than
complicated
model.
(Orriel,
D
.,
2012)
TSR
Premise:
#3
:
Wellbeing
Func1on
Basic
understanding
:
1) Premise
1#
TSR
complexity
and
endogeneity
and
premise
2#
parBcipatory
among
agents
are
sBll
fully
adopt
empirical
system
or
human
raBonality
valued.
2)
There
is
no
embedded
by
knowledge
induce-
in
every
variable
or
a
system.
So
the
model
must
be
embedded
by
-valued
3) How
to
do?
TSR
Premise:
#3
TSR
Premise
#3
:
Wellbeing
Func1on
(,S)
{}
{x()}
(,x())
simulate
W(x())
recalling
(,S)
v NotaBon
Subject
to
circular
causaBon
between
evoluBon
of
new
the
variables
knowledge-owconBnuity
NotaBon
as
cardinal
of
knowledge
(perfect
and
complete),
own
by
Allah
S
as
acertain
condiBon
named
shuraBc
process
X
as
Variable,
agent,
sub-system
or
CSF
X()
as
variable
X
which
is
knowledge
induced-
already
W
()
as
a
wellbeing
funcBon,
contains
variable
X
which
is
knowledge
induced-
already
v The
process
of
knowledge
induced
(),
therefor
are
as
below:
Xi
+
()
Xi()
(Xi)
+
()
(,
Xi())
(X1,
X2,
X3,
....
Xn,)
+
()
(X1(),
X2(),
X3(),
X4,
........X5(),())
TSR
Premise:
#3
:
Wellbeing
Func1on
InterpretaBon
1) Look
at
carefully,
when
a
system
had
embedded
or
induced
by
-valued,
the
variable
inside
system
to
be
1
more
variable
than
th
e
original
one.
It
is
because,
-valued
it
self
entries
to
the
system.
2)
All
variables
in
the
system
had
been
embedded
by
-valued
3) What
is
meaning
-value
in
variable
Xi()..?
Mainstream Methodology
TSR Methodology
1.
1.
2.
Measurement purpose
To measure material value only
2.
3.
General perspective
capitalism
free market
Measurement purpose
To measure in kaffah dimension.
Put on inside value
General issue
social wellbeing (maslahah)
islamic community
TSR
Premise:
#3
:
Wellbeing
Func1on
Mainstream Methodology
TSR Methodology
1.
Econometric Model
Usualy
under linier equation
Y = + 1.X1 + 2.X2+3.X3 + 4.X4+
Identification of significancy by coeficient
Complicated calculation and massive in
mathematical formula of statistic
Good in implementation in theoritical,
mathematical and statistical purposes
1.
Econometric model
figure out participatory among agents (PAA)
W()= k1X1() + k2X2() +k3X3() + k4X4()
+ k5X5() + k0()
Significancy by participatory level (ki)
Simplest mathematical model, easier to
understand
Suitable to implemented in social science
2.
Measurement purpose
Focus of consideration, selected one
variable as dependent variable.
By calculation of mathematical and
ststistical method.
Considering on optimalization or
maximalization
Possible to do substitution and ceteris
paribus
2.
3.
General perspective
Focus on spesific issue (financial only)
Strengh in calculation
Optimation or maximation
Measurement purpose
Setup wellbeing index W(), and put it always
as dependent vaiable
Possible to calculate only for limited part (i.e.
for (k) only)
Considering sinergy and complementarity
beyond variables. No optimation, no
maximalization calculation, but simulation by
discrete simulation.
All variable are endogenous, no substitution, no
ceteris paribus.
General issue
Focus on holistic and comprehensive issue
Strengh in measurement (especially in social
science)
Sinergy and complementarity beyond variables
The
structure
is
similar
will
empirical
system,
with
each
variable
has
been
knowledge
induced-()
Each
variable
has
unied
of
3
dimensions
(
kiXi()):
contribuBon
level,
achievement
level,
accpetance
level.
Measurement
of
()
in
morality,
ethic
and
social
value
in
each
variable
by
stakeholders
as
Knowledge
induced-
()
of
human
raBonality
on
empirical
and
quanBtaBve
gure.
By
likert
scale
(5).
Resume:
2) Do measurement
1) Memahami
secara
mendalam,
apa
loso,
paradigma,
sistem,
metodologi
dan
teknik
yang
dipakai
dalam
sistem
sekuler
yang
berkuasa
saat
ini.
2) Mempelajari
secara
mendalam
kekuatan,
kelemahan
dan
kesalahannya.
3) Mempelajari
nilai
nilai
islam
secara
komprehensif
dan
secara
khusus,
yang
relevan
dengan
metodologi
ilmiah.
4) Memakai
metodologi
dan
teknik
yang
sesuai
dan
membuang
yang
6dak
sesuai
dengan
nilai
nilai
islam.
5) Menyusun
dan
memformulasikan
metodologi
dan
teknik
sesuai
dengan
perspek8f
islam.
6) Melakukan
evaluasi
secara
terus
menerus
dan
dinamis
formula
yang
dirumuskan
tadi
dan
melakukan
penyempurnaan
disana-sini.
I.
CSF/Variable
X1
1
KPI
1.1
2
KPI
1.2
KPI
1.3
3
II.
CSF/Variable
X2
4
5
6
KPI
2.1
KPI
2.2
KPI
2.3
X1%
m/q/ann
m/q/ann
m/q/ann
m/q/ann
m/q/ann
m/q/ann
m/q/ann
m/q/ann
m/q/ann
m/q/ann
m/q/ann
m/q/ann
m/q/ann
m/q/ann
m/q/ann
TOTAL
BOBOT:
III. CSF/Variable X3
Social
Wellbeing
Model
IV.
CSF/Variable
X4
Construction
9
KPI
4.1
7
8
KPI
3.1
KPI
3.2
KPI
4.2
KPI
4.3
KPI
4.4
V.
CSF/Variable
X5
13
KPI
5.1
14
KPI5.2
15
KPI
5.3
10
11
12
Min.Requirement
(Government
compliannce)
Mandatory
(shariah
compliance)
I.
Government
Compliance
16
Regulation
6.1
17
Regulation
6.2
18
Regulation
6.3
18
Regulation
6.4
I.
Shariah
Compliance
19
Mandatory
7.1
20
Mandatory
7.2
21
Mandatory
7.3
Target/Goal Achievemen
Scoring
t
t-3 Xi
targe target
t
Historical
()
t-1
t-2
X2%
X3%
X5%
100%
X4%
Notes
k.Xi.
1
2
3
4
5
6
Rasio
2012
2013
2014
14,13%
2,14%
24,06%
2,22%
100,00%
74,97%
14,42%
2,00%
17,24%
2,62%
100,32%
78,21%
16,10%
0,80%
5,85%
4,33%
91,50%
79,28%
Tabel
38.
Rasio
Keuangan
Bank
Umum
Syariah
dan
Unit
Usaha
Syariah
(Financial
Ratios
of
Islamic
Commercial
Bank
and
Islamic
Unit
of
Weighted
measured
Islamic banks
Mainstream
(conventional)
Banks
2012
2013
2014
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
16,25%
168.46%
16.63%
14.6%
14.13%
-
6.60%
14.42%
44.96%
16.10%
19.32%
17.43%
19.45%
26.23%
19.57%
20.30%
3.02%
45.42%
2.52%
50.56%
2.22%
43.69%
2.62%
24.82%
4.33%
8.26%
5.66%
5.18%
21.60%
5.70%
11.66%
1.67%
17.58%
56.42%
1.79%
15.73%
na
2.14%
24.04%
na
2.00%
17.24%
27.16%
0.80%
5.85%
-
52.70%
3.11%
15.60%
3.08%
16.36%
14.89%
2.85%
18.11%
6.09%
89.70%
45.46%
88.94%
51.79%
100.00%
27,81%
100.32%
24,42%
91.50%
18,70%
83.85%
15.80%
89.70%
13.60%
89.42%
12.29%
80.54%
33.68%
78.41%
na
74.97%
na
78.21%
30.98%
79.28%
-69.92
74.10%
5.49%
74.08%
4.89%
76.29%
4.23%
20%
%
%
%
%
What
is
done
by
mainstream
methodology
15%
5%
20%
15%
5%
20%
%
%
%
7.5%
7.5%
5%
20%
%
%
15%
5%
20%
%
%
10%
10%
100%
Business
Performance
Freq.
Monitoring
Unit
Mandatory
(shariah
compliance)
I.
Government
Compliance
16 Tax
regulation
17 Business
Regulation
... (others)
I.
Shariah
Compliance
18 product
compliance
19 Services
.... (others)
Target/Goal
Goal
35%
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
%
%
%
annual
annual
annual
Likert
Likert
%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
5%
Likert
hours
10%
10%
%
%
%
Rp,
mil
Rp,
mil
hourS
Rp,
mil
%
%
%
satuan
%
skala
likert
3.5
C
A
D
5%
B
A
5%
A
5%
C
4%
4%
2%
100%
10%
annual
annual
annual
Achievement
C
C
B
20%
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
annual
Realization
B
B
B
20%
annual
annual
15%
TOTAL BOBOT:
Min.Requirement
(Government
compliannce)
Weighed
(%)
A
C
C
ki.
ki.
Notes
Score
Preference
for
target
decision
A=
by
Regulation
(BI/OJK)
B=Average
Industry
C=Company
decision
D=
by
Stake
Holder
Perception
5. Research Reviewed
b.
c.
5. Research Reviewed
And so on..!
49,0965%
25,3064%
18,5488%
7,0483%
100,0000%
1
2
3
4
-reviewed
2,467
2,801
2.573
2,366
Overhead cost
Investment
maintenance
Orhers
Overhead cost
Investment
maintenance
Orhers
Total
27,67%
18,45%
9,47%
44,42%
100,00%
Total
ki-reviewed
Reviewed
ki
ki-rev
Xi-rev
-rev
49,1
27,67%
na
2,467
25,31
18,45%
na
2,801
18,55
9,47%
na
2.573
7,04
44,42%
100,00%
na
2,366
100
Wahullahualam
bisawab
Thanks
you..!