Feasibility of Smart Feeder Bus Service Linking BRT Azadi Interchange

with General Bus Stand and Railway Station, Lahore

Research Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Ghulam Abbas Anjum

Researchers: Affaq Amir, Nida Batool Sheikh

Dean Faculty of Architecture & Planning, UET Lahore

Department of City & Regional Planning, UET Lahore (2011-2015)

Abstract

Data Collection Methods

The section linking Railway StationGeneral Bus StandAzadi

Interchange portrays a deplorable picture of traffic congestion
and provision of public transport. The research presents
feasibility study of smart feeder bus service with the aim of
alleviating traffic congestion and providing access to BRT while
linking the 3 major nodes. The research also identifies
parameters that contribute towards the feasibility study. Different
surveys have been conducted in the light of set objectives. Cost
benefit & other related analysis have been made. Study
concludes that introducing smart bus service which act as feeder
to BRT is a viable proposition in terms of economic,
environmental and social aspects, and recommends that LTC
should take initiative for launching of this project.

Surveys
Traffic Volume Survey
Journey Time Survey

Boarding-Alighting Survey
Vehicle Occupancy Survey Passenger Opinion Survey

Azadi Interchange to Railway Station

DESCRIPTION
Manual Classified Count from 8 am to 8 pm
Mode wise journey time observed through telephonic
communication between surveyors deployed at both ends
Passenger load of qingchis, wagons, bus determined through on
board observer, recording boarding/alighting passengers at each
stop
The average number of people travelling on an existing mode
observed at two enroute stops
Passenger opinion sought regarding the existing and proposed

Calculated Sample Size = 95 (no = t2.pq/d2)

-

Structured interviews conducted regarding provision of existing &

future service, also on giving 25% subsidy

Interview conducted from officials of:

Interviews with the

Regulators

Transport Department
Lahore Transport Company (LTC)

Traffic Police
-

Lahore, a populous city, has a population of more than 9 million.

The growing population has led to an increased transportation
demand which amounts to around 13.5 million daily multipurposed motorized trips other than walking. With a population
predicted to rise to over 15 Million by 2015 and with this the travel
demand is expected to rise which would stimulate the growth of
private cars and a higher para-transit dependency.
Currently, the section of road chosen for the purpose of study
links three major economic and transport hubs of the city i.e.
Railway Station, General Bus Stand and Azadi Interchange. This
road patch is about 4.25 Km long and it takes approximately 15
20 minutes travel time. Other than the owned vehicles, the
existing model traffic on this section mainly comprises of auto
and qingchi rickshaws, wagons and a few buses. No decent
public mode of travel is found in the area and the informal private
transport and para-transit modes are impeding the flexibility of
public transport. There is high traffic congestion, environmental
pollution arising from the vehicular emission and delays reaching
the destination occur. Access to BRT route is also not provided
and the informal private transport and para-transit modes are
hampering the flexibility of public transport.

Interviews with the

Operators

Structured interviews conducted regarding provision of existing &

future service, the fuel and maintenance cost, their willingness
towards the new service and the prospects of investment in the
new project

Interview conducted from officials of:

Albyrak

PAKOZ
Interviews with the Bus
Manufacturer

Bike

Rickshaw

Car

Wagon

Bus

Qingchi

914
1216

295
388

248
432

150
170

64
72

861
545

Table 4: Peak Hour Traffic Volume from Azadi Interchange to Railway Station.

Scenario 1 - Table 5 highlights the passenger volume on different

modes plying on road section from Railway Station to Azadi
Interchange. The values have been determined on basis of morning
peak hour calculation i.e. 10 am to 11 am.
MODE

COUNT

AUTHORIZED CAPACITY

PASSENGER VOLUME = Count x Auth. Cap.

Car
Motorcycle
Qingchi
Auto-Rickshaw
Wagon
Bus

296
444
386
286
380
528

4
1
6
3
16
70

1184
444
2316
858
6080
36960

Scenario 2 - In scenario 2, the actual passenger load is observed

by taking into account the actual occupancy per vehicle. The
values have been generated on the basis of surveyors observation
and the average has been taken. The actual occupancy seen is
listed in Table 6.
MODE

New Khan
-

Mode
Peak Hour
10 am -11 am
4 pm - 5 pm

Table 5: Authorized Capacity Based Hourly Passenger Volume from Railway Station to Azadi Chowk Interchange.

METRO Bus Company

Background

Analysis, Results & Findings

Analysis, Results & Findings

Structured interview conducted regarding bus cost, availability and

spatial design features for smart feeder service

Interviews conducted from officials of:

Hino Bus Service

COUNT
OBSERVED OCCUPANCY
PASSENGER VOLUME = Count x Auth. Cap.
Car
296
2
592
Motorcycle
444
0.7
777
Qingchi
386
3.5
1351
Auto-Rickshaw
286
2
572
Wagon
380
12
4560
Bus
528
50
26400
Table 6: Authorized Capacity Based Hourly Passenger Volume from Railway Station to Azadi Interchange.

Scenario 3 Scenario 3 has been viewed as per the travelers

opinion survey and the analysis has been devised accordingly. The
results for this part of the research are explained under the section
of passenger opinion survey.

Table 2: Surveys & Data Collection Methods.

Pictorial View Of Existing Traffic Condition

The existing traffic condition on the specified road section can be
seen from the following pictures captured. The photographs, not
only, indicate the prevailing level of traffic congestion on a section
of the road but also the high occupant qingchi rickshaws along with
other modes. (See Plates 1, 2, 3, 4 below)

Passenger Opinion Survey

Crosstabs have been generated for studying the response given
by passengers who showed willingness towards having smart
feeder bus service. Results are shown in bar charts below. (see
Figure 4, Figure 5, Figure 6)
Qingchi is the most frequent mode used by people but because
of its poor quality service, it does not satisfy its users. Likewise is
auto-rickshaw whereas half of the motorcyclist were also seen
unsatisfied with their own mode because of travel delays and
other potential factors.

The statement of the problem is given below in Figure 1.

Mode Used VS Level of Satisfaction

100%

100%

100%
90%

*PROBLEM STATEMENT
Plate 1. High Volume Qingchis

Plate 2. Haphazard Traffic Movement

Motorcycle

0%

Auto Rickshaw

Qingchi
Yes

Wagon

Bus

Car

No

Figure 4: Mode Used & Level of Satisfaction.

Plate 3. Different Modes of Transport

OUTCOME

Diagnostic Study Report

Plate 4. Qingchi Passenger Ridership

Analysis, Results & Findings

Maximum of the road users showed 100% willingness towards

shifting to smart feeder bus; offering a low fare and reliable
service. However, only those owning car responded the
opposite because of them having their own vehicle. The results
in Figure 5 justify the viability of feeder bus service on the
particular road section.
Mode Used VS Willingness to Shift
100%

100%

As of Objective 1
A Coherent Proposed
Service

Route Rationalization
Efficient Bus Service
Operators Efficiency

100%

100%

For the effective implementation of the project, four scenarios

have been assumed; in the light of which the data collected is
analyzed. The four scenarios are given in Figure 3. These are
formulated to study the travelling habit, existing ridership,
occupancy per vehicle and to determine the frequency of
proposed buses along with other related aspects.

83%

The satellite imagery for the particular road section is, thus, digitized
(see Figure 3 & Figure 4).

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%

22%

17%

20%
10%

Scenario 1: Authorized Capacity Based

Scenario 2: Occupancy Capacity Based

0%

0%

Table 7: Feeder Bus Proposed Operational Plan & Design Details.

Cost Benefit Analysis

Determinants of Cost & Sources of Revenue (In Pak Rs.)
Rolling Cost (Initial Investment)
Operating Cost (Fuel, Maintenance, Overhead, Salaries)
Operating Revenue ( Fare Box, Advertisement)
Tables 8-11 show the overall working and the profitability index
incurred over projects time period of 5 years.
Cost of one bus
Cost of 10 buses (Rolling Cost)
25% Government Subsidized
Equity
Debt (Loan Taken From Bank)
Interest Rate
Interest Amount Paid Annually
Total Interest Paid Till Payback Period

1 crore
10 crore
2.5 crore
2.5 crore
5 crore
9%
4500000
Rs 6750000

No. of Buses
Round Trip Length
Bus Daily Operational Time
No. of Trips Per Bus Per Day
Toal Trips Generated By 10 Buses
Per Day Per Bus Total Distance Travelled
Operational Cost/Bus/Day/Km
Per Day Bus Operational Cost
Per Day Cost on 10 Buses

10
9 Km
960 min
24
240
220 km
50
11000
110000

Table 9.

Total Passengers Per Bus Per Day

Total passengers 10 buses per day
30% of 1400 @Rs 10 (stop to stop fare)
70% of 1400 @Rs 15 (one sided fare)
Operating Revenue Per Bus Per Day
Advertisement Revenue (5% of Op. Cost)
Total Op. Revenue Per Bus Per Day
Per Day Net Income/Bus (Saving)
Monthly Net Income/Bus
Monthly Net Income of 10 Buses
Annual Net Income
Table 10.

1400
14000
4200
14700
20000
550
20550
9550
286500
2865000
Rs 34380000

Motorcycle

171900000
50000000
6750000
115150000
48253535.06
148253535.1

Auto Rickshaw

Qingchi

Wagon
Yes

Bus

1.48

Table 11.

0%

0%
Car

Conclusion

No

100%

100%

120%

Scenario 3: Survey Based Findings

The study concludes that the deployment of smart feeder bus

service is one feasible approach of providing road users with a
decent quality transport. It, not only, ensures good accessibility to
BRT; a long haul feeder service, but also imparts positive
economic, environmental and social impacts with significant
reduction in traffic congestion. The study also reveals the
financial feasibility of the project and ensures a high profitability
index and positive rate of return.

11%
22%
0%
0%

0%
0%
0%
0%

48%
48%

Recommendations

0%

Figure 3: Scenarios Analysed.

Motorcycle
Avoiding Travel Delays

On basis of the aforementioned scenarios, further calculations and

results have been generated.

Railway Station to Azadi Interchange

Mode
Peak Hour
10 am -11 am
4 pm - 5 pm

0%
0%
0%

20%

0%

40%

17%
17%
17%

Scenario 4: Rational or Intutive Decision Based

39%

60%

4%
0%
0%

80%

67%

100%

Azadi Chowk
Interchange

Figure 3: Digitized View.

Characteristic
Vehicle Type
Seating Capacity
Seating + Standing Capacity
Minimum Number of Doors
Propulsion System
Advertisement
(w.r.t bus and bus stops)
ITS Equipped
Passenger Comfort, Safety, &
Security

Profitability Index

0%

As part of the modal shift the data has been analyzed with
respect to the reason to shift (see Figure 6). The results of which
deduce that the prevailing poor quality, inaccessible and
indecent public transport service, people wish for a better
alternative being offered at an affordable price.

The peak hour traffic PCUs (morning & evening) for modes plying
on the particular road section have been gathered from the trafficcount survey and results are shown in Table 3 & Table 4.

Railway
Station

Integration with other Transits

Bus & Stop Maintenance
Driver & Conductor Salary

Designated Bus Stops Served

Rs. 10 stop to stop and Rs. 15 for one sided trip (E-Ticketing)
From 6 am to 10 pm
5 minutes
At key locations (Railway Station, Aik Morea, Sheranwala, Badami Bagh, Azadi
Interchange) to maximize ridership
Accessibility to the Bus Rapid Transit
Cleanliness, both, at the bus stops and inside the bus. Sheltered Stops
Monthly Rs. 15000/ & Rs. 10000 respectively
Proposed Bus Design Characteristics
Design
HOV (20 Feeder Bus)
70
75
2
Diesel Powered
Branding, coloring and Imaging on all marketing such as bus schedules, posters,
newspaper ads. (electronic advertisement inside the bus)
Computational ticketing system, CCTVs, Wireless communication, Tracking System
AC Bus, U-Shaped Seats, Automatic Door Lock, CCTVs, Fire Extinguisher

Net Income (After 5 years)

Less: Debt (Loan Taken)
Less: Interest Amount
Net Income Attained (After 5 Years)
Present Value
NPV

78%

80%

Mode Used VS Reason To Shift

Feasibility of the Project

PI & IRR
Accomplishment of
Objectives

Service Type
Fare & Ticketing Structure
Span of Service
Minimum Headway
Bus Stop Location

100%
90%

Low Cost Journey

Decent Travelling
Reduced Traffic
Congestion
Increased BRT Ridership

Aspect
Route Type / Structure

Proposed Operating Plan Details

Plan Detail
Feeder service from higher-capacity transit stations linking local activity centers

Table 8.

Figure 5: Mode Used & Willingness to Shift.

Table 1: OMO Matrix.

Figure 2: Satellite Imagery.

0%

11%

Obj. 5: To conduct cost

benefit analysis for
introducing feeder service

Capital Cost
Revenue
Income (Fare Structure)

19%

64%

Obj. 4: To evaluate key

performance indicators (KPI)
for the proposed plan

Traffic Congestion
Qingchi Occupancy
Vehicular Mission
Passenger Opinion Survey

30%

0%
0%

Passenger Load Survey

Obj. 3: To formulate design &
Bus design & specifications
operational plan for smart
Headway
feeder bus service

35%

33%

40%

36%

Literature Review
LTC Interview
Operators Interview

50%

50%

0%

Obj. 2: To study the salient

features of smart feeder
service

50%

The following Table 7 explains the feeder bus operational plan

and design characteristics.

65%

0%

The following OMO (Objective-Method-Outcome) matrix (see

Table - 1) generated that defines the methodology adopted to
achieve the desired objectives: (for further details, see Table 2)

Obj. 1: To analyze existing

travel & traffic conditions in
the study area

60%

10%

Methods & Objectives

Journey Time
Mode of Transport
Traffic Volume
All Study Surveys

67%

70%

20%

Figure 1: Problem Statement.

METHODS

Satisfaction Level

Alleviating traffic and transportation

congestion in the area with
deployment of smart feeder bus
service, and identifying all those key
indicators which will help access and
deduce the need of such a service,
ensuring a decent travel, an efficient
traffic-transportation network and a
sustainable environment.

OBJECTIVES

81%

80%

Feeder Bus Design & Service

Bike

Rickshaw

Car

Wagon

Bus

Qingchi

444
556

286
304

296
568

380
740

528
512

386
382

Table 3: Peak Hour Traffic Volume from Railway Station to Azadi Interchange

Auto Rickshaw
Accessible

Qingchi

Wagon

Low Fare Structure

Bus
Safe & Comfortable

Car
N/A

Figure 6: Mode Used & Reasons To Shift.

Scenario 4 Considering peak hour modal ridership, it is

assumed that the feeder bus will carry 15000 passengers in
a day. As per this assumption, 67% (10,000 passengers)of
these will be the qingchi users; and of the remaining 33%
(5000 passengers), 20% each will be those switching from
motorcycle and auto rickshaw. However, 60% will comprise
of the wagon & bus users.
Thus, the study also reveals a rational decision based
feasibility of the proposed project.

LTC should work in collaboration with other stakeholders to

get launched this project
The government has to play an important role in defining the
role of public transport and pursuing policies that encourage
and favor HOVs over personalized & LOVs

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