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Mes

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

DATOS MENSUALES
T
Yt
1
189
2
229
3
249
4
289
5
260
6
431
7
660
8
777
9
915
10
613
11
485
12
277
13
244
14
296
15
319
16
370
17
313
18
556
19
831
20
960
21
1152
22
759
23
607
24
371
25
298
26
378
27
373
28
443
29
374
30
660
31
1004
32
1153
33
1388
34
904
35
715
36
441
37
352
38
445
39
453
40
541
41
457
42
762
43
1194
44
1361
45
1615
46
1059
47
824
48
495

DESCOMPOSICION ST

Mes
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
MEDIA

189
229
249
289
260
431
660
777
915
613
485
277
244
296
319
370
313
556
831
960
1152
759
607
371
298
378
373
443
374
660
1004
1153
1388
904
715
441
352
445
453
541
457
762
1194
1361
1615
1059
824
495
563.42
796.50
1388.00

Max

MODELO MULTIPLICATIVO

TxC
MA

CMA

Y/CMA
SxI

447.83
452.42
458.00
463.83
470.58
475.00
485.42
499.67
514.92
534.67
546.83
557.00
564.83
569.33
576.17
580.67
586.75
591.83
600.50
614.92
631.00
650.67
662.75
671.75
677.58

450.13
455.21
460.92
467.21
472.79
480.21
492.54
507.29
524.79
540.75
551.92
560.92
567.08
572.75
578.42
583.71
589.29
596.17
607.71
622.96
640.83
656.71
667.25
674.67

1.466
1.707
1.985
1.312
1.026
0.577
0.495
0.583
0.608
0.684
0.567
0.991
1.465
1.676
1.992
1.300
1.030
0.622
0.490
0.607
0.582
0.675
0.561
0.978

677.58

674.67

1.99

Sn

Y/Sn
Yd

T=Yde

0.49
0.60
0.60
0.68
0.56
0.99
1.47
1.69
1.99
1.31
1.03
0.60
0.49
0.60
0.60
0.68
0.56
0.99
1.47
1.69
1.99
1.31
1.03
0.60
0.49
0.60
0.60
0.68
0.56
0.99
1.47
1.69
1.99
1.31
1.03
0.60
0.49
0.60
0.60
0.68
0.56
0.99
1.47
1.69
1.99
1.31
1.03
0.60

383.15
384.48
418.18
425.03
460.78
437.32
449.90
458.98
459.80
468.93
471.44
461.63
494.65
496.97
535.74
544.16
554.70
564.16
566.46
567.08
578.89
580.62
590.03
618.28
604.13
634.64
626.43
651.52
662.81
669.68
684.39
681.09
697.49
691.54
695.01
734.94
713.60
747.13
760.79
795.65
809.90
773.18
813.90
803.96
811.56
810.11
800.96
824.93

389.61
399.10
408.59
418.08
427.57
437.06
446.55
456.05
465.54
475.03
484.52
494.01
503.50
512.99
522.48
531.97
541.46
550.95
560.44
569.93
579.42
588.91
598.40
607.89
617.38
626.87
636.36
645.86
655.35
664.84
674.33
683.82
693.31
702.80
712.29
721.78
731.27
740.76
750.25
759.74
769.23
778.72
788.21
797.70
807.19
816.68
826.17
835.67

1.99

734.94

721.78

Min

189.00

447.83

450.13

0.49

0.49

383.15

389.61

TABLA DE ERRORES de PREDICCION


AJUSTE
SUMA
ERROR
PREDICCION
SUMA
ERROR

AJUSTE DE TENDENCIA LINEAL A LOS DATOS Yd

(ST DESESTACIONALIZ

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.99
R Square
0.99
Adj R Square
0.98
Standard Error
12.46
Observations
36
ANOVA
Regression
Residual

df
1.00
34.00

SS
MS
349920.55 349920.55
5278.79
155.26

Total

35.00

355199.34

Intercept
T

Coef
380.12
9.49

St Err
4.24
0.20

Pred Yd
389.61
399.10
408.59
418.08
427.57
437.06
446.55
456.05
465.54
475.03
484.52
494.01
503.50
512.99
522.48
531.97
541.46
550.95
560.44
569.93
579.42
588.91
598.40

Residuals
-6.46
-14.62
9.59
6.95
33.20
0.26
3.34
2.94
-5.74
-6.09
-13.08
-32.38
-8.84
-16.02
13.26
12.19
13.24
13.21
6.02
-2.85
-0.53
-8.29
-8.37

t
89.62
47.47

F
2253.79

p(F)
0.00

p
0.00
0.00

L 95%
371.50
9.08

U 95%
388.74
9.90

B(95%)
17.24
0.81

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

800.00
700.00
600.00
Yd

Obs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23

500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
0.00
T

24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

607.89
617.38
626.87
636.36
645.86
655.35
664.84
674.33
683.82
693.31
702.80
712.29
721.78

Suma Residuos

*******

10.39
-13.26
7.76
-9.93
5.66
7.46
4.85
10.06
-2.73
4.18
-11.26
-17.28
13.16
0.000

SIENDO QUE EL COMPONENTE I ARROJA RESULTADOS CERCANOS A 1


LA ESTIMACION SE HACE CONSIDERANDO UNICAMENTE TENDENCIA Y ESTACIONALIDAD

*******
Ye= TxSn
192.19
237.71
243.29
284.28
241.26
430.74
655.10
772.03
926.42
620.97
498.45
296.43
248.36
305.54
311.10
361.71
305.53
542.98
822.17
964.82
1153.05
769.84
615.61
364.77
304.54
373.38
378.91
439.15
369.79
655.22
989.24
1157.62
1379.69
918.72
732.77
433.11
360.72
441.21
446.73
516.59
434.05
767.46
1156.31
1350.41
1606.32
1067.59
849.94
501.44
563.79
1379.69

C=Yd/T

Cpm

0.983
0.963
1.023
1.017
1.078
1.001
1.007
1.006
0.988
0.987
0.973
0.934
0.982
0.969
1.025
1.023
1.024
1.024
1.011
0.995
0.999
0.986
0.986
1.017
0.979
1.012
0.984
1.009
1.011
1.007
1.015
0.996
1.006
0.984
0.976
1.018

0.990
1.001
1.039
1.032
1.029
1.005
1.001
0.994
0.983
0.965
0.963
0.962
0.992
1.006
1.024
1.024
1.020
1.010
1.002
0.993
0.990
0.996
0.994
1.003
0.992
1.002
1.002
1.009
1.011
1.006
1.006
0.995
0.989
0.993

0.973
1.022
0.978
1.045
0.973
1.003
1.006
0.994
1.005
1.008
0.970
1.021
0.976
1.020
0.999
1.001
1.004
1.001
0.993
1.006
0.996
0.990
1.023
0.976
1.021
0.983
1.007
1.002
0.996
1.009
0.990
1.011
0.995
0.983

1.04

1.04

Error
e=(Y - Ye)
-3.19
-8.71
5.71
4.72
18.74
0.26
4.90
4.97
-11.42
-7.97
-13.45
-19.43
-4.36
-9.54
7.90
8.29
7.47
13.02
8.83
-4.82
-1.05
-10.84
-8.61
6.23
-6.54
4.62
-5.91
3.85
4.21
4.78
14.76
-4.62
8.31
-14.72
-17.77
7.89
-8.72
3.79
6.27
24.41
22.95
-5.46
37.69
10.59
8.68
-8.59
-25.94
-6.44

Error
Error Abs
Absoluto Relativo
Abs[e]
Abs[e/Y]
3.19
8.71
5.71
4.72
18.74
0.26
4.90
4.97
11.42
7.97
13.45
19.43
4.36
9.54
7.90
8.29
7.47
13.02
8.83
4.82
1.05
10.84
8.61
6.23
6.54
4.62
5.91
3.85
4.21
4.78
14.76
4.62
8.31
14.72
17.77
7.89
8.72
3.79
6.27
24.41
22.95
5.46
37.69
10.59
8.68
8.59
25.94
6.44

1.69
3.80
2.29
1.63
7.21
0.06
0.74
0.64
1.25
1.30
2.77
7.01
1.79
3.22
2.48
2.24
2.39
2.34
1.06
0.50
0.09
1.43
1.42
1.68
2.19
1.22
1.59
0.87
1.13
0.72
1.47
0.40
0.60
1.63
2.49
1.79
2.48
0.85
1.39
4.51
5.02
0.72
3.16
0.78
0.54
0.81
3.15
1.30

Error
Cuadrado
e2
10.15
75.88
32.60
22.32
351.01
0.07
24.04
24.73
130.37
63.46
180.95
377.53
19.03
91.07
62.38
68.68
55.85
169.46
78.01
23.25
1.11
117.53
74.19
38.84
42.76
21.39
34.97
14.82
17.74
22.84
217.89
21.32
69.13
216.56
315.94
62.33
75.97
14.39
39.37
596.01
526.69
29.82
1420.53
112.11
75.35
73.80
672.69
41.51

192.19

0.96

(ST DESESTACIONALIZADA)

Yd

0.97

-13.48
-0.37

292.43
8.12

67.14
1.86

3150.18
87.51

59.24
4.94

169.54
14.13

24.70
2.06

3678.23
306.52

CIA Y ESTACIONALIDAD

Yde= a + b t

ESTIMACION TENDENCIA LINEAL:


800.00
700.00
600.00
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
0.00

f(x) = 9.4905026184x + 380.1209844157


R = 0.9851385043

10

FORMULA MATRICIAL: LINEFIT


9.49
380.12

15

20

25

9.49 slope
380.12 intercept

30

35

40

INDEX(LINEST(G3:G38,A3:A38),1)
INDEX(LINEST(G3:G38,A3:A38),2)

1600.00
1400.00
1200.00
1000.00
800.00

600.00

Ye

400.00
200.00
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

1800.00
1600.00
1400.00
1200.00
1000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
0.00

Ye=
TxSn
Y

Indice Estacional Normalizado


Sn

2.00
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
1

10

11

12

Factor IRREGULAR
1.060
1.040
1.020
1.000
0.980
0.960
0.940
0.920
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4

35

40

NEST(G3:G38,A3:A38),1)
NEST(G3:G38,A3:A38),2)

Y
Ye

3 3 3
4 5 6

Ye=
TxSn
Y

10

11

12

2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3
7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4

DESCOMPOSICION ST
Mes
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

T
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
MEDIA
Max
Min

Y
189
229
249
289
260
431
660
777
915
613
485
277
244
296
319
370
313
556
831
960
1152
759
607
371
298
378
373
443
374
660
1004
1153
1388
904
715
441
352
445
453
541
457
762
1194
1361
1615
1059
824
495
563.42
796.50
1388.00
189.00

MA

CMA

MODELO ADITIVO
S+I

447.83
452.42
458.00
463.83
470.58
475.00
485.42
499.67
514.92
534.67
546.83
557.00
564.83
569.33
576.17
580.67
586.75
591.83
600.50
614.92
631.00
650.67
662.75
671.75
677.58

450.13
455.21
460.92
467.21
472.79
480.21
492.54
507.29
524.79
540.75
551.92
560.92
567.08
572.75
578.42
583.71
589.29
596.17
607.71
622.96
640.83
656.71
667.25
674.67

209.875
321.792
454.083
145.792
12.208
-203.208
-248.542
-211.292
-205.792
-170.750
-238.917
-4.917
263.917
387.250
573.583
175.292
17.708
-225.167
-309.708
-244.958
-267.833
-213.708
-293.250
-14.667

677.58
447.83

674.67
450.13

573.58
-309.71

Sn
-266.99
-215.99
-224.68
-180.10
-253.95
2.34
249.03
366.65
525.97
172.68
27.09
-202.05
-266.99
-215.99
-224.68
-180.10
-253.95
2.34
249.03
366.65
525.97
172.68
27.09
-202.05
-266.99
-215.99
-224.68
-180.10
-253.95
2.34
249.03
366.65
525.97
172.68
27.09
-202.05
-266.99
-215.99
-224.68
-180.10
-253.95
2.34
249.03
366.65
525.97
172.68
27.09
-202.05

Yd
455.99
444.99
473.68
469.10
513.95
428.66
410.97
410.35
389.03
440.32
457.91
479.05
510.99
511.99
543.68
550.10
566.95
553.66
581.97
593.35
626.03
586.32
579.91
573.05
564.99
593.99
597.68
623.10
627.95
657.66
754.97
786.35
862.03
731.32
687.91
643.05
618.99
660.99
677.68
721.10
710.95
759.66
944.97
994.35
1089.03
886.32
796.91
697.05

525.97
-266.99

862.03
389.03

TABLA DE ERRORES de PREDICCION


AJUSTE
SUMA
ERROR
PREDICCION
SUMA
ERROR

AJUSTE DE TENDENCIA LINEAL A LOS DATOS Yd

(ST DESESTACIONALIZAD

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.88
R Square
0.78
Adj R Square
0.77
Standard Error
53.10
Observations
36.00
ANOVA
df
1.00
34.00
35.00

SS
334164.92
95869.11
430034.02

Coef
404.97
9.27

St Error
18.08
0.85

Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
T

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Obs
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
14.00
15.00
16.00
17.00
18.00
19.00
20.00
21.00
22.00

Pred Yd
414.25
423.52
432.80
442.07
451.35
460.62
469.89
479.17
488.44
497.72
506.99
516.27
525.54
534.81
544.09
553.36
562.64
571.91
581.19
590.46
599.74
609.01

Residuals
54.88
34.60
54.02
40.16
75.74
-18.83
-45.79
-55.69
-86.28
-44.26
-35.95
-24.08
-1.42
-9.69
12.72
9.86
17.44
-5.12
13.92
16.02
39.43
-9.55

MS
334164.92
2819.68

F
118.51

p
22.40
10.89

0.00
0.00

p(F)
0.00

L95%
368.24
7.54

U95%
441.71
11.01

23.00
24.00
25.00
26.00
27.00
28.00
29.00
30.00
31.00
32.00
33.00
34.00
35.00
36.00

618.28
627.56
636.83
646.11
655.38
664.66
673.93
683.20
692.48
701.75
711.03
720.30
729.58
738.85

-25.24
-41.37
-58.71
-38.98
-44.57
-28.43
-32.85
-12.41
75.62
97.72
164.14
24.16
-28.54
-82.66

Error
T=Yde
Ye= T+Sn
401.12
134.12
410.39
194.40
419.66
194.98
428.94
248.84
438.21
184.26
447.49
449.83
456.76
705.79
466.04
832.69
475.31
1001.28
484.58
657.26
493.86
520.95
503.13
301.08
512.41
245.42
521.68
305.69
530.96
306.28
540.23
360.14
549.51
295.56
558.78
561.12
568.05
817.08
577.33
943.98
586.60
1112.57
595.88
768.55
605.15
632.24
614.43
412.37
623.70
356.71
632.97
416.98
642.25
417.57
651.52
471.43
660.80
406.85
670.07
672.41
679.35
928.38
688.62
1055.28
697.90
1223.86
707.17
879.84
716.44
743.54
725.72
523.66
734.99
468.00
744.27
528.28
753.54
528.86
762.82
582.72
772.09
518.14
781.36
783.71
790.64
1039.67
799.91
1166.57
809.19
1335.15
818.46
991.14
827.74
854.83
837.01
634.96
563.42
725.72
401.12

1223.86
134.12

C+I
54.876
34.602
54.015
40.157
75.737
-18.829
-45.791
-55.690
-86.277
-44.260
-35.951
-24.079
-1.416
-9.691
12.722
9.865
17.445
-5.121
13.917
16.017
39.430
-9.552
-25.243
-41.372
-58.709
-38.983
-44.570
-28.428
-32.848
-12.414
75.624
97.725
164.138
24.155
-28.536
-82.665

164.14
-86.28

47.831
42.925
56.637
32.355
3.706
-40.103
-62.586
-62.076
-55.496
-34.763
-20.482
-11.729
0.539
4.299
13.344
7.396
8.747
8.271
23.121
15.298
1.545
-25.389
-41.775
-46.355
-47.421
-37.327
-35.282
-24.563
10.121
53.645
112.496
95.339
53.252
-29.015

-13.229
11.090
-16.479
43.382
-22.535
-5.688
6.896
-24.201
11.236
-1.188
-3.597
10.313
-10.229
8.424
-3.479
10.049
-13.868
5.646
-7.104
24.132
-11.097
0.146
0.403
-12.354
8.437
-7.243
6.854
-8.285
-22.535
21.979
-14.771
68.799
-29.097
0.479

112.50
-62.59

68.80
-29.10

e=(Y - Ye)
54.88
34.60
54.02
40.16
75.74
-18.83
-45.79
-55.69
-86.28
-44.26
-35.95
-24.08
-1.42
-9.69
12.72
9.86
17.44
-5.12
13.92
16.02
39.43
-9.55
-25.24
-41.37
-58.71
-38.98
-44.57
-28.43
-32.85
-12.41
75.62
97.72
164.14
24.16
-28.54
-82.66
-116.00
-83.28
-75.86
-41.72
-61.14
-21.71
154.33
194.43
279.85
67.86
-30.83
-139.96

Error

Error

Absoluto

Abs Relativo

Abs[e]
54.88
34.60
54.02
40.16
75.74
18.83
45.79
55.69
86.28
44.26
35.95
24.08
1.42
9.69
12.72
9.86
17.44
5.12
13.92
16.02
39.43
9.55
25.24
41.37
58.71
38.98
44.57
28.43
32.85
12.41
75.62
97.72
164.14
24.16
28.54
82.66
116.00
83.28
75.86
41.72
61.14
21.71
154.33
194.43
279.85
67.86
30.83
139.96

Abs[e/Y]
29.04
15.11
21.69
13.90
29.13
4.37
6.94
7.17
9.43
7.22
7.41
8.69
0.58
3.27
3.99
2.67
5.57
0.92
1.67
1.67
3.42
1.26
4.16
11.15
19.70
10.31
11.95
6.42
8.78
1.88
7.53
8.48
11.83
2.67
3.99
18.74
32.95
18.71
16.75
7.71
13.38
2.85
12.93
14.29
17.33
6.41
3.74
28.27

0.00
0.00

1460.85
40.58

312.71
8.69

125.98
10.50

1266.96
105.58

175.32
14.61

(ST DESESTACIONALIZADA)

1000.00
900.00
800.00
Yd

700.00
600.00
500.00
Yd

400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
0.00
T

Error
Cuadrado

Yde= a + b t

ESTIMACION TENDENCIA LINEAL:

3011.41
1197.29
2917.63
1612.61
5736.11
354.53
2096.80
3101.40
7443.73
1958.93
1292.46
579.82
2.01
93.91
161.86
97.31
304.31
26.23
193.67
256.55
1554.75
91.25
637.23
1711.64
3446.73
1519.69
1986.49
808.14
1078.99
154.11
5719.00
9550.11
26941.22
583.47
814.30
6833.42
13456.32
6934.85
5755.14
1740.59
3738.17
471.18
23818.21
37803.85
78313.35
4605.32
950.40
19587.98

Chart Title
1000.00
800.00

f(x) = 9.2743806306x + 391.840625


R = 0.7770662309

600.00
400.00
200.00
0.00
0

10

15

FORMULA MATRICIAL: LINEFIT


9.27
391.84

20

25

9.27 slope
391.84 intercept

30

35

INDEX(LINEST(G3:G38
INDEX(LINEST(G3:G38

1600.00
1400.00
1200.00
1000.00
800.00

Y
T

600.00

400.00
200.00
0.00

Indice Estacional Normalizado


Sn
600.00
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
0.00
-100.00
-200.00

10

11

200.00
100.00
0.00
-100.00
95869.11
2663.03
197175.37
16431.28

Yd

-200.00
-300.00
-400.00

10

11

30

35

40

INDEX(LINEST(G3:G38,A3:A38),1)
INDEX(LINEST(G3:G38,A3:A38),2)

Ye=
T+Sn
Y

10

11

12

10

11

12

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

INDICE ESTACIONAL MULTIPLICATIVO


MES
A_1
A_2
A_3
Smedio
ENE
0.495
0.490
0.493
FEB
0.583
0.607
0.595
MAR
0.608
0.582
0.595
ABR
0.684
0.675
0.679
MAY
0.567
0.561
0.564
JUN
0.991
0.978
0.985
JUL
1.466
1.465
1.466
AGO
1.707
1.676
1.692
SPT
1.985
1.992
1.988
OCT
1.312
1.300
1.306
NOV
1.026
1.030
1.028
DIC
0.577
0.622
0.600

Sn
0.493
0.596
0.595
0.680
0.564
0.986
1.467
1.693
1.990
1.307
1.029
0.600

11.990

12.000

A_3
Smedio
-309.708 -279.125
-244.958 -228.125
-267.833 -236.813
-213.708 -192.229
-293.250 -266.083
-14.667
-9.792
236.896
354.521
513.833
160.542
14.958
-214.188

Sn
-266.991
-215.991
-224.679
-180.095
-253.950
2.342
249.030
366.655
525.967
172.675
27.092
-202.054

-145.604

0.000

Suma

INDICE ESTACIONAL ADITIVO

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Suma

MES
ENE
FEB
MAR
ABR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AGO
SPT
OCT
NOV
DIC

A_1

209.875
321.792
454.083
145.792
12.208
-203.208

A_2
-248.542
-211.292
-205.792
-170.750
-238.917
-4.917
263.917
387.250
573.583
175.292
17.708
-225.167

ERRORES DE PREDICCION
DESCOMPOSICION MULTIPLICATIVA
AJUSTE
PREDICCION
SUMA
INDICE
SUMA
INDICE
CRITERI
36
12
O
T
-13.5
-0.4
59.2
4.9
ME
292.4
8.1
169.5
14.1
MAD
67.1
1.9
24.7
2.1
MAPE
3150.2
87.5
3678.2
306.5
MSE
RMSE
9.4
17.5
SD
1.7
2.2
CV

ERRORES DE PREDICCION

RMSE

TR_SGN

CRITERI
O
T
ME
MAD
MAPE
MSE
SD
CV
TR_SGN

Time Sequence Plot for Y


Linear trend = 380. + 9.49 t

(X 1.E3)
2

actual
forecast
95.0% limits

1.6

1.2
0.8
0.4
0
1/50

1/51

1/52

1/53

1/54

1/55

S DE PREDICCION
AJUSTE
SUMA
36
0.0
1460.9
312.7
95869.1

DESCOMPOSICION ADITIVA
PREDICCION
INDICE
SUMA
INDICE
12
0.0
126.0
10.5
40.6
1267.0
105.6
8.7
175.3
14.6
2663.0
197175.4 16431.3
51.6
128.2
9.2
16.1

Mes
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

189
229
249
289
260
431
660
777
915
613
485
277
244
296
319
370
313
556
831
960
1152
759
607
371
298
378
373
443
374
660
1004
1153
1388
904
715
441
352
445
453
541
457
762
1194
1361
1615
1059
824
495

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48

Suma
ME
MSE
RMSE

D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10 D11 D12


1
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1

Ye
128.79
186.13
181.65
252.46
200.79
434.13
716.79
848.46
1036.79
643.79
487.46
248.13
243.67
301.00
143.59
367.33
315.67
549.00
831.67
963.33
1151.67
758.67
602.33
363.00
358.54
415.88
258.47
482.21
430.54
663.88
946.54
1078.21
1266.54
873.54
717.21
477.88
473.42
530.75
373.34
597.08
545.42
778.75
1061.42
1193.08
1381.42
988.42
832.08
592.75

REGRESION CON VARIABLES DICOTOMICAS SIN INTERCEPTO


e= (Y-Ye)
60.21
42.87
67.35
36.54
59.21
-3.12
-56.79
-71.46
-121.79
-30.79
-2.46
28.88
0.33
-5.00
175.41
2.67
-2.67
7.00
-0.67
-3.33
0.33
0.33
4.67
8.00
-60.54
-37.88
114.53
-39.21
-56.54
-3.88
57.46
74.79
121.46
30.46
-2.21
-36.88
-121.42
-85.75
79.66
-56.08
-88.42
-16.75
132.58
167.92
233.58
70.58
-8.08
-97.75

e2
3625.04
1838.27
4536.58
1335.29
3505.63
9.77
3225.29
5106.29
14833.21
948.13
6.04
833.77
0.11
25.00
30767.35
7.11
7.11
49.00
0.44
11.11
0.11
0.11
21.78
64.00
3665.29
1434.52
13117.41
1537.29
3196.96
15.02
3301.46
5593.79
14752.13
927.71
4.88
1359.77
14742.01
7353.06
6345.12
3145.34
7817.51
280.56
17578.34
28196.01
54561.17
4982.01
65.34
9555.06

567.36 274284.30
11.82
5714.26
75.59

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
1.00
R Square
0.99
Adj R Sq
0.95
StEr
57.81
Observation
36.00
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

13
23
36
Coef

Intercept
T
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
D6
D7
D8
D9
D10
D11
D12

0.00
9.57
119.22
166.98
170.07
214.17
152.93
376.69
649.78
771.88
950.64
548.06
382.16
133.25

SS
MS
14718233.38 1132171.80
76875.63
3342.42
14795109.00
StEr
0.98
35.74
36.11
36.49
36.90
37.33
37.78
38.25
38.74
39.25
39.78
40.32
40.88

F
338.73

p
9.73
3.34
4.62
4.66
5.80
4.10
9.97
16.99
19.92
24.22
13.78
9.48
3.26

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

REGRESION CON VARIABLES DICOTOMICAS CON INTER

p(F)
0.00

2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Ye
128.79
186.13
198.79
252.46
200.79
434.13
716.79
848.46
1036.79
643.79
487.46
248.13
243.67
301.00
313.67
367.33
315.67
549.00
831.67
963.33
1151.67
758.67
602.33
363.00
358.54
415.88
428.54
482.21
430.54
663.88
946.54
1078.21
1266.54
873.54
717.21
477.88
473.42
530.75
543.42
597.08
545.42
778.75
1061.42
1193.08
1381.42
988.42
832.08
592.75

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.99
R Square
0.98
Adjusted R
0.97
Standard E
57.81
Observatio
36.00
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
T
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
D6
D7
D8
D9
D10
D11

SS
MS
12 3290453.13 274204.43
23
76875.62
3342.42
35 3367328.75

Coef
133.25
9.57
-14.03
33.73
36.82
80.92
19.68
243.44
516.53
638.63
817.39
414.81
248.91

StEr
40.88
0.98
48.43
48.22
48.03
47.86
47.70
47.57
47.46
47.37
47.30
47.25
47.21

t
3.26
9.73
-0.29
0.70
0.77
1.69
0.41
5.12
10.88
13.48
17.28
8.78
5.27

OTOMICAS CON INTERCEPTO

F
82.04

p
0.00
0.00
0.77
0.49
0.45
0.10
0.68
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

p(F)
0.00

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
101
111
121
131
141
151
161
171
181
191
201
211
221

USA_ HOUSING STARTS


Numero de viviendas nuevas Iniciadas
ao mes
HS
1959
1
96.2
2
99.0
3
127.7
250.0
4
150.8
5
152.5
200.0
6
147.8
7
148.1
8
138.2
150.0
9
136.4
10
120.0
100.0
11
104.7
12
95.6
1960
1
86.0
50.0
2
90.7
3
90.5
4
123.0
0.0
5
130.2
6
122.8
7
114.3
8
130.3

1961

1962

1963

96.9

10

110.4

11

92.8

12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5

64.2
70.4
74.1
104.2
112.8
127.6
134.8
126.6
127.1
125.4
124.8
103.0
82.2
81.2
77.1
116.2
147.8
155.2
136.8
136.5
147.7
114.3
135.2
120.9
93.9
79.0
89.6
124.8
164.2
172.7

1-DESCOMPOSICION MULTIPLICATIVA
2-DESCOMPOSICION ADITIVA
3-REGRESION DICOTOMICA

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2

154.2
151.3
144.0
143.7
165.3
119.3
95.0
97.9
101.3
129.1
147.1
152.8
157.2
140.6
138.3
119.8
141.2
110.6
93.0
81.7
80.9
119.9
148.6
153.3
151.8
139.1
128.3
124.6
133.1
110.5
101.1
79.4
76.2
118.1
140.9
130.0
120.6
99.2
101.8
89.1
76.6
72.8
60.2
59.1
61.4
91.5
113.7
132.0
125.4
125.3
127.4
121.9
135.4
118.4
80.1
80.5
84.6

1969

1970

1971

1972

3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

126.6
162.0
140.9
137.9
139.8
136.6
134.2
140.8
127.1
96.4
101.5
90.1
131.9
159.0
155.5
147.3
125.2
124.9
129.3
123.4
94.6
84.1
66.4
74.3
114.7
128.4
125.0
135.2
140.8
128.7
130.9
140.9
126.9
121.4
110.6
102.2
167.9
201.1
198.5
193.8
194.3
204.5
173.8
179.7
173.7
152.1
149.1
152.2
203.9
211.6
225.8
223.1
206.5
228.6
203.0
216.5
185.7

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

150.5
146.6
138.0
200.0
205.0
234.0
202.6
202.6
197.2
148.4
147.1
133.3
90.4
84.5
109.4
124.8
159.5
149.0
147.6
126.6
111.1
98.3
96.7
75.1
55.1
56.1
54.7
80.2
97.9
116.1
110.3
119.3
117.3
111.9
123.6
96.9
76.1
72.5
89.9
118.4
137.2
147.9
154.2
136.6
145.9
151.8
148.4
127.1
107.4
81.3
112.5
173.6
182.2
201.3
197.6
189.8
194.0

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5

177.7
193.1
154.8
129.2
88.6
101.3
172.1
197.5
211.0
216.0
192.2
190.9
180.5
192.1
158.6
119.5
88.2
84.5
152.9
161.0
189.1
191.8
164.2
170.3
163.7
169.0
118.7
91.6
73.1
79.9
85.1
96.2
91.7
116.4
120.1
129.9
138.3
152.7
112.9
95.9
84.5
71.9
107.8
123.0
109.9
105.8
99.9
86.3
84.1
87.2
64.6
59.1
47.2
51.3
78.2
84.1
98.8

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2

91.1
106.8
96.0
106.4
110.5
108.9
82.9
91.3
96.3
134.6
135.8
174.9
173.2
161.6
176.8
154.9
159.3
136.0
108.3
109.1
130.0
137.5
172.7
180.7
184.0
162.1
147.4
148.5
152.3
126.2
98.9
105.4
95.4
145.0
175.8
170.2
163.2
160.7
160.7
147.7
173.0
124.1
120.5
115.6
107.2
151.0
188.2
186.6
183.6
172.0
163.8
154.0
154.8
115.6
113.0
105.1
102.8

1988

1989

1990

1991

3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

141.2
159.3
158.0
162.9
152.4
143.6
152.0
139.1
118.8
85.4
78.2
90.2
128.8
153.2
140.2
150.2
137.0
136.8
131.1
135.1
113.0
94.2
100.1
85.8
117.8
129.4
131.7
143.2
134.7
122.4
109.3
130.1
96.6
75.0
99.2
86.9
108.5
119.0
121.1
117.8
111.2
102.8
93.1
94.2
81.4
57.4
52.5
59.1
73.8
99.7
97.7
103.4
103.5
94.7
86.5
101.8
75.6

1992

12
1
2
3
4

65.6
71.6
78.8
111.6
109.7

MULTIPLICATIVA

121
131
141
151
161
171
181
191
201
211
221
231
241
251
261
271
281
291
301
311
321
331
341
351
361
371
381
391