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  • THSECO1 / APRIL 10, 2015: Regional Convergence in The Philippines: An Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis

    Transféré par

    Bon Tiangson
    36 vues17 pages
    This document analyzes regional income convergence in the Philippines using spatial econometric techniques. It finds evidence of both sigma and beta convergence between 1990-2012 based on per capita GRDP data. Sigma convergence is demonstrated by a declining coefficient of variation and positive Moran's I values over time. Beta convergence is shown through a standard OLS regression with a negative and significant beta coefficient. Moving forward, the authors intend to more comprehensively review the literature, determine the appropriate spatial estimation procedure, and identify any regional convergence clusters within the Philippines.

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    This document analyzes regional income convergence in the Philippines using spatial econometric techniques. It finds evidence of both sigma and beta convergence between 1990-2012 based on per capita GRDP data. Sigma convergence is demonstrated by a declining coefficient of variation and positive Moran's I values over time. Beta convergence is shown through a standard OLS regression with a negative and significant beta coefficient. Moving forward, the authors intend to more comprehensively review the literature, determine the appropriate spatial estimation procedure, and identify any regional convergence clusters within the Philippines.

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    36 vues17 pages

    THSECO1 / APRIL 10, 2015: Regional Convergence in The Philippines: An Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis

    Transféré par

    Bon Tiangson
    This document analyzes regional income convergence in the Philippines using spatial econometric techniques. It finds evidence of both sigma and beta convergence between 1990-2012 based on per capita GRDP data. Sigma convergence is demonstrated by a declining coefficient of variation and positive Moran's I values over time. Beta convergence is shown through a standard OLS regression with a negative and significant beta coefficient. Moving forward, the authors intend to more comprehensively review the literature, determine the appropriate spatial estimation procedure, and identify any regional convergence clusters within the Philippines.

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    Téléchargez comme PDF, TXT ou lisez en ligne sur Scribd
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    sur 17

    THSECO1 / APRIL 10, 2015

    REGIONAL CONVERGENCE IN THE


    PHILIPPINES: AN EXPLORATORY
    SPATIAL DATA ANALYSIS
    KIMBERLY GARCIA, LORENZO SERAFICA, BON TIANGSON

    REGIONAL INCOME INEQUALITY


    180000

    NCR
    CAR
    Ilocos Region
    135000
    Cagayan Valley
    Central Luzon
    Southern Tagalog
    Bicol Region
    90000
    Western Visayas
    Central Visayas
    Eastern Visayas
    Western Mindanao
    Northern Mindanao 45000
    Southern Mindanao
    Central Mindanao
    Untitled 1
    0
    1990

    1995

    2000

    2005

    2010

    REGIONAL INCOME INEQUALITY

    NEGATIVE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN


    INEQUALITY AND NATIONAL
    GROWTH (BENABOU, 1996)
    INEQUALITIES REDUCE THE
    EFFECTIVENESS OF POVERTY
    REDUCTION EFFORTS (KWASI, 2010)

    CONVERGENCE

    PER CAPITA INCOME LEVELS


    EQUALIZE
    CATCH-UP EFFECT
    INFORMED BY THREE MAIN
    THEORIES:
    1. NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH
    2. ENDOGENOUS GROWTH MODEL
    3. CUMULATIVE GROWTH MODEL

    UNCONDITIONAL CONVERGENCE

    NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH MODEL


    (SOLOW, 1956; BAUMOL, 1986; BARRO
    AND SALA-I-MARTIN, 1991;)
    PREDICTS ONE CONVERGENCE RATE
    FREE FACTOR MOBILITY AND FREE
    TRADE
    SIGMA-CONVERGENCE VERSUS BETACONVERGENCE

    UNCONDITIONAL CONVERGENCE:
    SIGMA CONVERGENCE

    NARROWING OF PER
    CAPITA INCOME DISPERSION
    YES OR NO?
    STANDARD DEVIATION
    COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION

    UNCONDITIONAL CONVERGENCE:
    BETA-CONVERGENCE

    HOW FAST ARE WE CONVERGING?


    STANDARD OLS
    log(Yit/Yio) = + logYio+ it

    >0, <0 (1)

    ISSUES WITH UNCONDITIONAL


    CONVERGENCE

    DOES NOT:
    EXPLAIN ONGOING GROWTH
    RECOGNIZE DIFFERENCES IN
    PREFERENCES AND ACCESS TO
    TECHNOLOGY
    INCLUDE ACCELERATING FACTORS

    CONDITIONAL CONVERGENCE

    ENDOGENOUS GROWTH MODEL


    (ARBIA, BASILE AND SALVATORE,;)
    PREDICTS MULTIPLE CONVERGENCE
    RATES CONVERGENCE CLUBS
    REGIONAL STRUCTURE
    FACTORS OF REGIONAL
    DEVELOPMENT
    GEOGRAPHIC FACTORS

    CONDITIONAL CONVERGENCE

    log(Yit/Yio)= + (1-e^t )[logYio]+Xit+ it


    <0,0

    ONE FOR EACH CONVERGENCE


    CLUB

    STANDARD OLS VS. SPATIAL ECONOMETRICS

    GEOGRAPHY-PRODUCTIVITY
    LINKAGE
    ACCOUNTS FOR SPILLOVERS
    (SPATIAL EFFECTS)
    ACCOUNTS FOR DIFFERENCES
    (SIMILARITIES)

    SPATIAL ECONOMETRICS

    1. EXPLORATORY SPATIAL DATA


    ANALYSIS
    COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION
    GLOBAL MORANS I
    2. CONFIRMATORY BETA ANALYSIS
    STANDARD OLS

    SPATIAL ECONOMETRICS

    3. DETERMINE TYPE OF SPATIAL


    AUTOCORRELATION
    PERFORM DIAGNOSTIC TESTS
    4. ESTIMATE USING ML OR GMM
    5. CHECK FOR PRESENCE OF SPATIAL
    CLUSTERS
    LOCAL MORANS I

    RESULTS: DATA USED

    GRDP PER CAPITA 1990-2012


    2002 BORDERS

    RESULTS: SIGMA CONVERGENCE


    4

    Moran I

    CV 2

    0
    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    RESULTS: SIGMA CONVERGENCE


    1990-2012
    Constant

    5.522669
    (0.034 )

    Beta Coefficient

    -0.5459265
    ( 0.040 )

    R-Squared

    0.3329

    AIC

    -7.233136

    Jarque-Bera

    3.11

    MOVING FORWARD

    MAKE LITERATURE MORE


    COMPREHENSIVE
    DETERMINE WHAT TYPE OF
    ESTIMATION PROCEDURE
    IDENTIFY CLUSTERS

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