Prepared by Mike Rizzo

General Manager

Report Distributed September 13, 2015

Prepared for
Ted Lerner
Owner of Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals
Interoffice Proposal

To: Ted Lerner, Owner

From: Mike Rizzo, General Manager
Date: September 13, 2015
Subject: Bryce Harper Contract
At the conclusion of the 2018 season, outfielder Bryce Harpers contract will expire and
he will become eligible for free agency. Bryce is currently signed to a 2 year, $7.5 million
contract out of arbitration. The average salary of a Major League Baseball (MLB) player
is currently $4 million. From a statistical standpoint, Bryce is one of the most valuable
players in all of baseball, but is being underpaid based on his production. Re-signing
Bryce to a long-term extension will be essential to the continued success of our franchise.
Bryce is only 22 years old, but has already proven to be the cornerstone of our franchise
and one of the most skilled players within MLB. Bryce represents a solid financial
investment from both a statistical and commercial standpoint. Bryces value as a player
can be seen from the following statistics: (Figure 1.1)
Figure 1.1

 MLB Leader in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) with 8.68

MLB Leader in Wins Above Average (WAA) with 6.94
MLB Leader in Runs Above Average (RAA) with 66.8
Figure 1.2

This data reveals the value of Bryce in terms of the number of wins he adds to the team,
as well as his offensive production. Additionally, Bryce is one of the most marketable
players in MLB and has heavily contributed to the increase in average ticket sales since
his debut in 2012. Since his debut, ticket sales have increased by an average of 7,913
tickets per season (Figure 1.2). This increase in ticket sales has led to a higher profit
margin for our franchise. Based on the data listed above, I propose that we re-sign Bryce
to a long-term contract that is proportionate to the level of talent he possesses. The
consequences of failing to do so could be that Bryce will sign with another team
following the 2018 season.
Re-signing Failure
Based on Bryces current performance, we project that he will become the most valued
free agent following the 2018 season. If we compare Bryces statistical performance to
the top-10 paid players in MLB, Bryce leads in almost every major statistical category.
For example, if we combined the WARs of Prince Fielder (1.7), Robinson Cano (2.5),
Albert Pujols (2.96) and Ryan Howard (-1.3), it would still fail to add up to the WAR of
Bryce Harper (8.68) (Figure 1.1). Contrasted with their combined salaries of $95 million
to Harpers current contract of $2.5 million annually, the data reveals Harpers modest

salary relative to his production. Bryce also leads the MLB in WAA and RAA. These
statistics show that Bryce adds more wins per season and runs per season than any other
player in MLB.
Prior to Bryce joining the major league roster, the average attendance per game was
approximately 23,087 from 2009-2011 (Figure 1.2). After Bryce made his debut in 2012,
average attendance jumped to approximately 31,726 from 2012-2015 (Figure 1.2).
Bryces high level of performance has been a major attraction to fans, and has
exponentially raised our average attendance and profits. The data suggests that more fans
are coming to Nationals games in order to see Bryce play. By re-signing Bryce to a longterm contract, we would not only be making an investment in the quality of our team, but
a financial investment that would continually increase profits.
The consequences of failing to re-sign Bryce Harper would be significant. A loss to our
organizational profits in the form of ticket sales, as well as a decline in overall team
performance would be expected. High profits and performance are at the very heart of
what our franchise desires to produce. By re-signing Bryce, the organization will be
making a long-term investment in both.
Miami Marlins Case
Looking at past successes and failures of MLB teams, the Miami Marlins have taken both
action and inaction when it comes to re-signing young, prospective players to large,
multi-year contracts. In 2007, a contract year, Miguel Cabrera ended his season with the
Marlins with career-highs in home runs and runs batted in (Baseball Reference, 2015).
Instead of spending the necessary money to re-sign Cabrera, the Marlins opted to trade
him to the Detroit Tigers. In 2012, Cabrera finished the best season of his career while
capturing the Triple Crown, leading the American League in batting average, home runs,
and runs batted in. He led the Detroit Tigers to an American League Championship, and a
trip to the World Series. The Marlins finished last in their Division.
In 2010, rookie outfielder Giancarlo Stanton took the field for the first time as a Marlin.
After a strong rookie campaign, Stanton was voted into the All Star game in 2012. His
numbers consistently increased after 2012, as he quickly became one of the top
outfielders in the game. The Marlins took no chances on losing Stanton. In 2014, they
signed him to the most lucrative contract in the history of baseball to which he has lived
up to thus far (Baseball Reference, 2015). The contract details are:

$325 million over 13 years

No trade clause
2020 opt-out
2028 $10 million buyout
Stanton continues to add value to the Marlins franchise establishing himself as one of the
top power hitters in all of Major League Baseball.

Call to Action
Bryce Harper is the face of the Washington Nationals franchise. His influence extends
beyond the win/loss columns and into the bleachers, filling seats with excited patrons.
Bryce embodies a winning culture in our clubhouse, our stadium, and the city of
Washington D.C. Because of the value that he presents, I propose we offer the following
contract to Bryce Harper effective immediately (Figure 1.3):

14 year, $378 million

No trade clause through 2021 season
Opt-out clause following 2023 season
Buyout clause for $10 million following 2029 season
Figure 1.3

Bryces contract will be primarily back loaded for several reasons. If Bryce fails to live
up to his potential, we will have the no trade clause lifted in 2021 and will be able to
trade him without paying a large chunk of his salary. Additionally, we will have Bryce
through his expected prime years of performance based on his age before his no trade
clause is lifted.
Bryce is arguably the best player in baseball and based on his performance thus far,
deserves to be the highest paid player in MLB. Offering this contract will provide a
strong incentive to Bryce to be a Washington National for the rest of his career, and
shows our commitment to him as a member of our organization.

References
Giancarlo Stanton Statistics. (n.d.). Retrieved September 16, 2015, from
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stantmi03.shtml#contracts
Miguel Cabrera Statistics. (n.d.). Retrieved September 16, 2015, from baseballreference.complayersccabremi01.shtml
MLB Wins Above Replacement - 2015. (n.d.). Retrieved September 9, 2015, from
http:// espn.go.com/mlb/war/leaders/_type/seasonal/year/2015
Washington Nationals Attendance, Stadiums, and Park Factors. (n.d.). Retrieved
September 9, 2015, from http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/WSN/attend.shtml