PREDI

CCIN
MEDI
A

VARIABLE IMPORTACIONES
La prediccin vara entre:

Y^ 0

Siendo

^ 1 +

^ 2 X o

X o =3500

Y^ 0 =9.373386+0.203424*( X o )= 619.645
2
1 (X 0 X )
+
n
x2i ]
var ( Y^ 0 )= 2

=2944.1917

X =1759.73333

x 2i

=5747798.9

Remplazando:

var ( Y^ 0 ) = 2944.1917

var ( Y^ 0 ) =2944.1917*0.5935689
var ( Y^ 0 ) =1747.5806
Luego se halla:

1 (35001759.7333)
+
15
5747798.9

ee ( Y^ 0 )= var ( Y^ 0 ) = 41.804074

Entonces: P [

^
^
^
1+ 2X2 t/2* ee ( Y 0 )

^
^
2 X0 + t/2* ee ( Y 0 ) ]

^
1+

^
2X2

^
1+

Con un el intervalo de confianza a 95% y 12g.l para el verdadero E (Y|

X0 )

1 + 2X0 est dado por:

Y
E(
0X
=3500) 516.0898 +
516.0898 0.533969 (41.804074)

0.533969 (41.804074)

3408.9089

PREDI
CCIN
INDIVI
DUAL

Y
E( 0X =3500)

3591.0911

2
1 ( X 0 X )
2
^
var ( Y 0Y 0 ) = 1+ +
n
x 2i

var ( Y 0Y^ 0 ) = 2944.1917

var ( Y 0Y^ 0 ) = 2944.1917*1.66543982

var ( Y 0Y^ 0 ) = 4691.772264

]
2

1+

1 (35001759.7333)
+
15
5747798.9

Luego se halla:

^ ) = var ( Y Y
^ ) =
ee ( Y 0Y
0
0
0

68.49651278

Y
E(
0X
=3500) 516.0898 +
516.0898 0.533969 (68.49651278)

0.533969 (68.49651278)

3649.254

Y
E( 0X 0 =3500 )

PREDI
CCIN
MEDI
A

3350.746

VARIABLE EXPORTACIONES
La prediccin vara entre:

Y^ 0

^ 1 +

^ 3 X o

Siendo

X o =3500

Y^ 0 = 441.2004 + 0540162 ( X o ) = 594.768

2
1 (X 0 X )
+
n
x2i ]
2
var ( Y^ 0 )=

2 =19436.992
X =1878.2

x 2i

=4938446.4

Remplazando:

var ( Y^ 0 ) = 19436.992

1 (35001878.2)
+
15
4938446.4

var ( Y^ 0 ) =19436.992*0.5992705
var ( Y^ 0 ) =971.89682
Luego se halla:

Entonces: Pr [

ee ( Y^ 0 )= var ( Y^ 0 ) = 31.17526
^
^
^
1+ 2X2 t/2* ee ( Y 0 )

^
^
2 X0 + t/2* ee ( Y 0 ) ]

^
1+

^
2X2

^
1+

Con un el intervalo de confianza a 95% y 12 g.l para el verdadero E(Y|

X0 )

1 + 2X0 est dado por:

Y
E(
0X
=3500) 441.2001 + 0.540162
441.2004 0.540162 (31.17526)

(31.17526)

3432.0691

PREDI
CCIN
INDIVI
DUAL

3567.9309

VARIABLE EXPORTACIONES

2
1 ( X 0 X )
2
^
var ( Y 0Y 0 ) = 1+ +
n
x 2i

var ( Y 0Y^ 0 ) =12016.94706 1+

1 (7001971.675)
+
20
1718205.86

var ( Y 0Y^ 0 ) = 12016.94706*1.5992705

var ( Y 0Y^ 0 ) = 16944.49711

Luego se halla:

ee ( Y 0Y^ 0 ) = var ( Y 0 Y^ 0 ) = 139.422347

Y
441.2004 0.540162*(139.442347) E( 0X 0 =3500 )

0.540162*(139.422347)

441.2001 +

3196.19871

0X
E(
0 =3500 )

3803.80129