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An independent analysis
comparing the 2014 USDA Organic
Survey data with USDA-NASS
statistics for total crop production
Steven D. Savage
Savage & Associates Consulting
Applied Mythology Blog
www.drstevesavage.com
Background and
Methodology
Periodically, the USDA conducts a detailed survey of the US organic industry including data on the acreage, yield,
and price of organic crop production. Such surveys have been conducted in 2014, 2008. Organic data is
available at the state level for a large number of crops in a summary on the USDA website. Similar data is
collected each year by surveying a subset of all growers, and these numbers are available through the
Quickstats2.0 website, also from USDA-NASS. The USDA does not publish a comparison of these two categories,
so in 2009 and again this year I have undertaken to make such a comparison.
Not all crop/state combinations are available for the analysis. Sometimes the minor crops in a state are not even
tracked in the overall USDA data. For both the general and organic survey, if the number of farms reporting is too
small, the numbers are not disclosed so that information about specific entities are shielded. Some crops are only
tracked at the nationwide level (usually when one or a few states dominate the production). Even with these
limitations, it was possible to find 371 good comparisons (356 at the state level and 15 for small crops at the
national level e.g. cotton, tangerines). These represented total cropland acres, 80% of the US total.
Many academic studies have been done comparing organic and conventional production methods, and several
meta-analyses have been published collecting these studies. While this is a valuable approach, it will not always
reflect the full range of innovation or limitation that are a part of real world commercial agriculture. This USDA
data is a window on the practical range of farming operation and the best available measure of how the different
production systems perform in a practical sense. There are potential artifacts in this data set. If there is a
difference in the proportion of irrigated land used for organic vs conventional it will skew the data as will other
intensity differences or geographic differences within a state. Some of the comparisons are unbalanced as in the
case of spinach and lettuce which are more heavily represented by baby types for organic in California. Even
so, the overall distribution of yield spread is sufficiently weighted to the conventional advantage to indicate the
reality of the differential.
My email is savage.sd@gmail.com
>Conv.
Yield
US Level Data
Row Crops
Row Crops
Vegetable Crops
Vegetable Crops
Barley
(Organic data from 532 farms, 45,710 acres, 1.9% of total, 33% yield gap,
1,286,070 more acres for organic only production)
There could
be differences
in the
proportion of
irrigated
barley in
some states
Barley
(1.19 million more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)
Corn Silage
(organic data from 960 farms, 36K acres, 0.6% of total, 20% yield gap,
1.6 million more acres needed for organic only production)
Corn Silage
(1.61 million more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)
(487K more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)
Alfalfa/Hay Mixtures
(States with highest organic yield, total of 28 states with available data 1607
farms, 220K acres, 1.4% of total, yield gap 2.4%, 375K acres for all organic)
Alfalfa/Hay Mixtures
(States with lowest organic yield, total of 28 states with available data 1607
farms, 220K acres, 1.4% of total, yield gap 2.4%, 375K acres for all organic)
Other Hay
(States with >800K acres, total 1983 farms, 179K acres, 0.5% of total, -21%
yield gap, 6.6million less acres needed for only organic production)
Other Hay
(States with <800K acres, total 1983 farms, 179K acres, 0.5% of total,
-21% yield gap, 6.6million less acres needed for only organic
production)
Oats
(organic data from 969 farms, 42K acres, 4.7% of total, 18% yield gap,
187K more acres needed for organic only production)
Proso Millet
(organic data from 29 farms, 10K acres, 2.8% of total, 25% yield gap,
117K more acres needed for organic only production )
Proso Millet
(117K more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)
Rice
(organic data from 85 farms, 25K acres, 0.9% of total, 39% yield gap,
1.83 million more acres needed for organic only production )
Rice
(1.83 million more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)
Sorghum
(organic data from 47 farms, 5616 acres, 0.1% of total, 21% yield gap,
1.71 million more acres needed for organic only production)
Sorghum
(1.71 million more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)
Sorghum Silage
(organic data from 181 farms,14,153 acres, 4.5 % of total, 17% yield
gap, 60,489 more acres needed for organic only production)
Soybeans
(organic data from 1432 farms, 99K acres, 0.1% of total, 31% yield gap, 37.7
million more acres needed for organic only production)
Soybeans
(37.7 million more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)
Sunflower Seed
(organic data from 61 farms, 6682 acres, 0.4% of total, 26% yield gap,
528K more acres needed for organic only production)
Sunflower Seed
(528K more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)
Durum Wheat
(organic data from 43 farms, 10.8K acres, 0.8% of total, 20% yield gap,
528K more acres needed for organic only production)
Durum Wheat
(324K more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)
Spring Wheat
(organic data from 295 farms, 80K acres, 0.6% of total, 34% yield gap,
6.44 million more acres needed for organic only production)
Spring Wheat
(6.4 million more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)
Winter Wheat
(States over 500K acres, total organic data from 826 farms, 173K acres, 0.5%
of total, 29% yield gap, 13.2 million more acres needed for organic only
production )
Winter Wheat
(States under 500K acres, total organic data from 826 farms, 173K acres, 0.5%
of total, 29% yield gap, 13.2 million more acres needed for organic only
production )
Winter Wheat
(13.2 million more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)
Winter Wheat
(13.2 more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)
Farm
s
Acres
% Total
acres
Cotton US
38
15,756
0.2
45%
7,659,051
Peanuts US
21
8,394
0.6
37%
757,587
Flaxseed US
62
15,204
5.0
43%
219,950
269
8,500
3.3
-6%
-14,879
Safflower US
10
2,547
1.5
6%
12,140
Lentils US
15
1,465
0.6
35%
139,084
Rye US
Yield
Gap
More
Acres for
all
Organic
Apples
(organic data from 669 farms, 15K acres, 6.8% of total, 25% yield gap,
67,971 more acres for organic only production )
Apples
(60K more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)
Avocados
(organic data from 371 farms, 3,652 acres, 6.2% of total, 12% yield gap,
8,075 more acres needed for organic only production)
Avocado
(8,075 more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)
Fresh Blueberries
(organic data from 316 farms, 3,293 acres, 5.4% of total, 6% yield gap,
3,634 more acres to produce all organic)
Blueberries, Fresh
State
Farms
Acres
% Total
Arkansas
2.6
California
63
941
19.6
Florida
39
299
7.0
789
Georgia
26
263
1.6
11,688
New Jersey
10
131
1.4
3,428
New York
28
88
12.6
North Carolina
28
92
1.3
4,999
Oregon
58
218
2.4
2,790
Washington
56
1,255
13.8
-1,528
648
3,293
5.4
3,634
Above States
More Acres
320
1,655
-43
Processed Blueberries
(organic data from 51 farms, 990 acres, 1.2% of total, 107% higher
yield in organic segment )
Cranberries
(organic data from 30 farms, 283 acres, 0.7% of total, 67% yield gap,
5,883 more acres needed for all organic production)
Grapefruit
(organic data from 135 farms, 1,411 acres, 2.0% of total, 32% yield
gap, 32,062 more acres needed for all organic production)
Grapes
(organic data from 681 farms, 27,009 acres, 2.6% of total, 49% yield
gap, 982,625 more acres needed for all organic production)
Pears
(organic data from 242 farms, 2,675 acres, 0.5% of total, 32% yield gap,
21,641 more acres needed for organic only production)
Peaches, Fresh
(255 farms, 2,794 acres, 2.7% of total, 25% yield gap,37,740 more
acres needed for all organic production)
Raspberries
(organic data from 81 farms, 393 acres, 5.7% of total, 15% yield gap,
1,183 more acres needed for organic only production)
Strawberries
(organic data from 618 farms, 2,980 acres, 5.5% of total, 61% yield gap,
78,121 more acres needed for organic only production)
Farm
s
Acres
% Total
Yield
Gap
Almonds US
99
6,162
0.7
43%
643,900
Blackberries US
19
60
1.0
42%
4,338
S. Cherries US
160
1,888
2.1
-6.3%
S. Cherries WA
80
1,409
4.0
15%
5,883
S. Cherries CA
38
300
0.9
19%
7,488
T. Cherries US
35
465
1.2
-6%
-2,127
Coffee US
43
224
2.9
25%
2,518
Dates US
26
708
8.6
10%
861
119
1,235
17.6
64%
1,0036
15
187
0.6
38%
18,432
Lemons CA
195
2,118
4.6
23%
13,188
Plums CA
128
2,320
12.9
37%
9,343
Plums OR
31
86
6.6
6%
Tangerines US
134
747
1.2
58%
85,186
Walnuts US
205
5,781
2.5
48%
20,7514
Figs US
Hazelnuts US
More
Acres
-114,20
Snap Beans
(organic data from 843 farms, 1,525 acres, 2.3% of total, 44% yield
advantage, -20K acres needed for organic only production)
Cabbage (green)
(organic data from 671 farms, 1298 acres, 2.1% of total, 38% yield
gap,37,596 more acres needed if all organic)
Cauliflower
(organic data from 316 farms, 1,745 acres, 4.6% of total, 30% yield gap,
15,429 more acres needed if all organic)
All but
California
less than 12
acres
organic total
per state
Carrots
(organic data from 1062 farms, 8972 acres, 12.1% of total, 49% yield
gap, 61,809 more acres needed for all organic)
Garlic
(organic data from 972 farms, 726 acres, 3.1% of total, 66% yield gap,
44,891 more acres if all organic)
Onions, Dry
(organic data from 417 farms, 1352 acres, 1.0% of total acres, 21% yield
gap, 35,633 more acres for all organic)
Only Wisconsin
and California
have more
than 10 acres
of organic
onions
Bell Peppers
(organic data from 881 farms, 1,196 acres, 2.6% of total, 40% yield gap,
30,698 acres to produce all organic)
Georgia and
Michigan
had <10
acres of
organic
peppers
Potatoes
(organic data from 953 farms, 12K acres, 1.1% of total, yield gap 30%,
450,109 more acres needed for only organic)
Potatoes
(450K more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)
Squash
(organic data from 1,347 farms, 6,826 acres, 17.7% of total, 10% US
yield gap, 3,542 more acres for only organic production)
Sweet Corn
(organic data from 256 farms, 11,382 acres,13.1% of total. Sorted by organic
yield, -16% yield gap, -10,380 acres if all organic, )
Sweet Potatoes
(organic data from 302 farms, 6,005 acres, 4.4% of total, -29% yield gap,
-28,917 acres for organic only production)
Fresh Tomatoes
(organic data from 821 farms, 2,566 acres, 3.0% of total, yield gap 61%,
129,672 more acres needed for organic only production)
Summary
statistics based
on states with a
least 25 acres of
organic fresh
tomatoes
Watermelons
(organic data from 341 farms, 871 acres, 0.8% of total, 76% yield gap,
33,855 more acres needed for organic only production)
IN, AK, VA, MA,
GA < 20 acres of
organic
watermelons
Other Vegetables
Crop
Farms
Acres
% of Total
Acres
28
102
Broccoli US
716
Broccoli CA
Celery US
Artichokes CA
Hops US
Yield
Differential
(%)
More Acres
If All
Organic
1.4
-7%
-492
8,571
6.7
17%
25,317
150
7,246
5.6
8%
10,705
190
2,235
7.7
32%
12,678
31
421
1.1
39%
24,196
59.4
79%*
80,579
Leaf Lettuce
US
Lettuce All US
1063
32,122
12.3
72%*
590,605
Green Peas US
385
9,624
5.1
-12%
-19,505
Spinach US
411
18,000
47.9
71%*
47,086
Processing
Tomatoes US
88
4,545
1.5
35%
159,880
Snap Beans,
Processing US
65
4,356
2.7
23%
46,164