Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Study #2128
October 16-19, 2015
2,771 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list
Poll Questions
PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING.
Ask only of likely Democratic caucusgoers; Republican caucusgoers, skip to Republican candidate
favorability.
Now, Im going to mention some prominent Democrats, including [Before Aug-15: people talked about as possible]
candidates for the Democratic nomination for president. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable,
mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you dont know enough about the person to answer,
just say so. (Record dont know as not sure. Rotate list, but Obama always goes first.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers
Fav
Unf
7*
Very
Favorable
Mostly
Favorable
Mostly
Unfavorable
Very
Unfavorable
Not
Sure
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
90
51
39
88
91
89
86
9
7
9
13
43
44
49
49
45
47
40
37
5
5
6
5
4
2
3
8
2
2
2
1
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
85
10
36
49
14
20
20
34
29
22
25
15
51
54
53
45
8
14
14
19
6
6
6
15
7
4
2
6
Oct-15
Aug-15
14
30*
12
20
11
56
80
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
85
14
39
46
77
88
86*
84
76
19
10
12*
15
19
27
30
39
46
43
50
58
46
38
33
10
6
7
7
8
9
4
6
8
11
4
2
2
1
5
Oct-15
10
12
78
35
14
39
8
4
2
2
25
17
11
11
5
5
6
7
3
3
3
2
60
72
78
78
79*
76
78
60
9
11*
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
43
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
82
10*
42
40
73
57
47
37
29
8
4
12
12
13
39
27
23
17
10
34
30
24
20
19
4
3
8
8
8
4
1
4
4
5
19
39
41
51
58
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
22
31
19
21
10
47
12
9*
11
12
4
3
3
1
16
19
18
15
10
7
8
8
2
3
3
4
68
69
68
72
33
20*
13
13
19*
22
21
16
17
7*
8
9
9
*We are most confident in the net favorable and unfavorable numbers in the first two columns are the best
estimate. Because of rounding, those numbers occasionally do not reflect the sum of the very/mostly
favorable or the very/mostly unfavorable.
Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice question, record No first
choice in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers
Joe Biden
Lincoln Chafee
Hillary Clinton
Larry Lessig
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent
says the word uncommitted.)
Not sure
No first choice
Q.4a
First Choice
Q.4b
Second Choice
Combined
12
42
2
37
1
23
1
31
1
6
23
1
35
1
73
1
8
60
2
3
3
3
7
6
n/a
1
48
2
41
1
3
4
Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice question, record No first
choice in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Joe Biden
Lincoln Chafee
Hillary Clinton
Larry Lessig
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
Not sure
No first choice
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
First
Second
Combined
12
23
35
14
n/a
8
9
24
n/a
31
26
38
n/a
39
35
1
-
1
2
42
31
73
37
50
57
56
23
18
15
15
60
68
72
71
1
6
1
8
3
2
2
1
8
10
3
3
11
12
5
4
37
23
60
30
24
16
5
20
20
13
6
50
44
29
11
2
n/a
2
3
1
n/a
5
6
3
n/a
7
9
6
7
6
4
3
8
6
3
8
16
8
6
6
19
13
8
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
6
13
23
14
10
Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice question, record No first
choice in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Biden removed
and second
choice
reallocated
Lincoln Chafee
Hillary Clinton
Larry Lessig
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
Not sure
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
1
1
-
48
43
50
62
63
2
5
2
3
1
41
35
24
18
5
1
2
n/a
3
3
3
6
7
6
5
4
8
16
8
7
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made
up, or could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said
No first choice have been coded as Could still be persuaded.)
All Dem CGs Clinton
n=402
n=176
4.9% pts
7.4% pts
42
58
-
46
54
-
Sanders
n=138
8.4% pts
46
53
1
Mind is made up
Could still be persuaded
Not sure
(Ask only for each candidate NOT answered in first or second choice questions.) Im going to mention
the Democrats who are not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think you could ever
support the person for president or would never support the person for president. (Read appropriate names.
Use same rotation as horserace question. If selected as first or second choice, code 1st or 2nd choice
and do not ask.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers
Ever
Never
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
54
10
34
46
37
12
15
4
10
38
39
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
25
54
20
31
n/a
27
n/a
40
n/a
1
n/a
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
18
73
26
16
13
9
1
3
60
72
Larry Lessig
Oct-15
19
48
32
Martin OMalley
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
50
28
14
38
34
21
13
30
48
11
6
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
27
10
59
30
23
12
18
8
30
50
29
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
32
48
18
36
32
26
13
34
47
3
7
Joe Biden
Lincoln Chafee
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
Not sure
1st or 2nd
choice
For each of the following potential candidate concerns, please tell me if this is something that makes you less
supportive of the person or does not bother you. (Read list. Rotate.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers
Hillary Clinton has not been forthcoming about her home email
server
Joe Biden is taking a long time to decide if he is going to run for
president
Bernie Sanders describes himself as a democratic socialist
Hillary Clinton has delayed or flip-flopped on key decisions
Bernie Sanders has voted against waiting periods and background
checks for gun buyers
Democratic caucusgoers: Skip to bigger risk question.
Less
supportive
Does not
bother
Not
Sure
18
81
27
17
34
72
81
64
1
2
2
60
39
Unf
Very
Favorable
Mostly
Favorable
Mostly
Unfavorable
Very
Unfavorable
Not
Sure
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
50
43
14
36
25
18
50
45
43
28
10
11
17
9
36
32
29
41
31
27
25
19
19
18
18
9
5
13
11
22
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
84
12
53
31
79
56
50
41
8
15
12
8
46
24
28
24
33
32
22
17
6
10
9
4
2
5
3
4
13
29
38
51
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
39*
49
32
28
21
12
29
28*
36
39
59
58
54
45
5
6
7
8
24
21
29
31
36
39
32
29
23
19
22
16
12
14
10
16
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
61
26
28
33
15
11
13
61
59
58
52
24
20
21
18
29
20
22
20
32
39
36
32
17
13
14
11
7
7
7
7
15
21
21
30
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
66
22
26
40
13
12
64
41*
15
19*
31
13
33
27
8
12
7
8
21
40
Jan-15
15
19
11
13
66
Oct-15
Aug-15
30
18
12
67
12
75
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
18
59*
38
14
27
26
29
15
22*
2
4
13
19
35
23
25
15
26
40
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
61
33
30*
30
28
30
18
43
22
11
61
61
66
59
17
21
28
23
44
40
38
36
21
21
21
23
10
9
7
7
9
9
6
11
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
57
27
19
37
16
11
17
18
15
10
12
42
28
29
29
14
15
15
11
5
4
5
3
21
38
41
45
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
31*
33*
22
22
12
36
33
25
22
17
22
16*
14
7
10
7
7
3
22
18
15
14
17
11
10
5
5
4
4
2
45
59
64
76
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
7*
48
27
21
44
9
9
26
22
15
13
51
55
45*
43
46
50
22*
53
61*
43
39
41
9
10
18*
19
20
14
40*
35
Fav
Unf
Very
Favorable
Mostly
Favorable
Mostly
Unfavorable
Very
Unfavorable
Not
Sure
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
43*
48*
12
30
29
18
10
39
55
64
59
49
34
25
24
11
16
25
21
29
39
39
38
31
24
18
18
18
10
7
6
12
11
11
17
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
70*
20
26
43
12
10
67
60
57
54
20
17
20
16
24
20
16
14
43
40
41
40
15
12
15
12
5
5
5
4
13
23
23
30
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
51
34*
12
39
21
14
15
11
18
16
14
38
38
41
38
26
19
22
20
10
9
8
10
15
16
13
18
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
59
37
27
32
19
18
35
63*
68
26
7
4
34
20
22
16
31
36
19
33
32
4
10
6
48
56
57
52
61*
27
26
37*
28
30
30
*We are most confident that the net favorable and unfavorable numbers in the first two columns are the
best estimate. Because of rounding, those numbers occasionally do not reflect the sum of the very/mostly
favorable or the very/mostly unfavorable.
Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice question, code second
choice as No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Which TWO or THREE of these candidates, if any, would you like to see drop out of the race? (Multiple
responses accepted, so total may exceed 100%.)
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent
says the word uncommitted.)
Not sure
No first choice
First
Second
Combined
Drop Out
5
28
1
10
4
3
2
2
5
9
2
19
5
19
2
9
13
3
8
2
4
11
1
9
10
47
3
19
17
6
10
4
9
20
3
28
22
3
19
7
7
15
22
11
7
12
21
14
3
10
25
3
7
2
2
11
3
13
Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice question, code second
choice question as No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
First
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Second
Combined
10
6
9
8
4
7
7
10
16
15
28
19
47
18
10
9
14
5
10
32
15
19
2
4
4
1
4
3
3
8
7
10
19
8
5
5
10
8
6
18
13
11
13
17
5
2
1
11
3
1
16
5
2
2*
4
9
10
4
8
7
8
17*
17
10
2
1
2
4
4
2
6
5
4
2
2
1
3
1
1
5
3
2
4
10
14
3
5
9
7
15
23
11
20
6
6
3
8
12
8
14
18
11
1
6
4
2
6
6
3
12
10
First
Donald Trump
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
No first choice
Second
Combined
19
28
23
4
1
9
2
1
32
6
2
5
4
2
1
2
1
5
7
5
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
4
5
6
11
10
11
7
*Combined does not match below for certain candidates due to rounding.
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is
made up, or could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those
who said No first choice have been coded as Could still be persuaded.)
All Rep CGs
n=401
4.9% pts
Carson
supporters
n=109
9.4% pts
Trump
supporters
n=80
11.0% pts
22
78
1
15
83
1
32
67
1
Mind is made up
Could still be persuaded
Not sure
Im going to mention the candidates who are not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think
you could ever support the person for president or would never support the person for president. (Read
appropriate names. Use same rotation as horserace questions. If selected as first or second choice, code 1st
or 2nd choice and do not ask.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
G.
H.
I.
J.
K.
L.
M.
N.
O.
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Not sure
1st or 2nd
choice
Ever
Never
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
48
40
10
50
38
39
35
2
10
9
16
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
41
10
47
50
47
12
18
6
20
32
15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
45
48
44
34
48
45
5
13
3
8
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
49
27
19
54
49
24
21
4
18
18
13
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
54
23
17
55
38
20
27
9
30
16
5
Oct-15
Aug-15
17
59
24
20
51
28
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
25
63
11
30
29
57
43
13
25
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
60
31
60
51
28
24
4
9
8
16
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
55
29
10
65
45
20
25
10
25
6
5
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
36
45
14
41
29
40
28
14
40
5
3
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
19
63
18
26
20
57
41
17
38
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
43
45
43
45
43
30
6
10
8
15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
55
20
20
60
49
19
18
6
15
15
18
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
53
38
56
51
35
26
6
11
3
12
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
35
34
27
36
28
29
58
3
8
32
6
On the basis of religion alone, do you think it would be acceptable or unacceptable to have a Muslim president of
the United States?
Rep CGs
25
69
7
Acceptable
Unacceptable
Not sure
32
28
40
Is a committed Christian
Is not a committed Christian
Not sure
Regardless of who youre supporting for president, do you think Jeb Bushs family ties would be a good thing if
hes elected since he knows the job and what it entails or a bad thing because he will forever be in the shadow of
his father and brother?
Rep CGs
42
47
12
Good thing
Bad thing
Not sure
For each of the following potential candidate concerns, please tell me if this is something that makes you less
supportive of the candidate or does not bother you. (Read list. Rotate.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers
Less
supportive
Does not
bother
Not
sure
5
46
31
93
54
67
2
1
2
31
65
63
34
Im going to mention some things people have said about Ben Carson. Regardless of whether you support him
for president, please tell me for each if this is something that you find very attractive about him, mostly
attractive, mostly unattractive, or very unattractive. (Read list. Rotate.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers
Very
Attractive
Mostly
Attractive
Mostly
Unattractive
Very
Unattractive
Not
Sure
48
13
50
37
29
38
9
38
4
2
11
2
4
9
6
57
54
24
31
10
4
6
3
2
7
43
30
14
62
27
51
70
26
26
10
1
5
2
8
2
10
21
30
18
21
Dem CG
31
43
60
41
16
To elect a president who has not held office so does not know the processes and
procedures of governing
To elect the same sort of person who has served as president for many decades who will
likely continue to do things the way they have been done with the same effect
Not sure
Based just on what you happen to know at this point, do you think the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade
agreement among the United States and 11 Pacific Rim nations will be good or bad for Iowa?
REP CG
27
30
42
Dem CG
39
27
34
Do you think the congressional investigations into Benghazi are or are not worth the time and money?
REP CG
75
19
6
Dem CG
14
79
6
Compared to:
Study #2125
400 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
404 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error 4.9 percentage points for Democrats
Study #2122
401 Democratic likely caucusgoers in Iowa
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points
Study #2118
402 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
437 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.7 percentage points for Democrats
Study #2113
402 Republican likely caucusgoers
401 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points for each party
Study #2104
425 Republican likely caucusgoers
426 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.8 percentage points for each party
Methodology
Oct 23 (Bloomberg) The Iowa Poll, conducted October 16-19 for Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register
by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 401 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely
or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses and 402 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will
attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses.
Interviewers contacted 2,771 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of states voter registration list by
telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter
registration list.
Questions based on the subsamples of 402 likely Democratic caucus attendees or 401 likely Republican caucus attendees
each have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were
repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the
percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of
respondentssuch as by gender or agehave a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register is prohibited.