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Failure

Probability

Probability of
Immediate
Ignition

Transport
Small (Vapour,
25 mm dia.)
5.00 x

10-6 per

2.00 x

Flash Fire/
VCE

0.2
0.8

year

Large (Liquid,
Catastrophic Rupture)
10-6 per

0.05
0.95

Delayed
Ignition

0.9
0.1

year

0.9

0.9
0.1

0.1

Consequence
Outcome

Frequency of Each
Failure Event

Jet Fire/BLEVE
Flash Fire

2.50 x 10 -7 per year


9.50 x 10 -7 per year

Dispersion

3.80 x 10 -6 per year

Fireball
Flash Fire

1.80 x 10 -6 per year


1.62 x 10 -7 per year

VCE
Dispersion

1.80 x 10 -8 per year


2.00 x 10 -8 per year

Inventory : LPG = 8000 kg

Figure No.

Proposed Joint User Complex and Wholesale Fish Market at Area 44, Tuen Mun, New Territories
Scale

Event Trees

Page No.

8.4a

NTS

Date

5/ 01

AEC

Failure
Probability
Transfer
Coupling/Hose

Probability of
Immediate
Ignition

Delayed
Ignition

Flash Fire/
VCE

0.05
0.95

0.2

2.60 x 10 -5 per year

0.9
0.1

0.8

0.05
Breakaway

0.95

0.2

1.35 x 10 -6 per year

0.9
0.1

0.8

0.05
Pipework

0.95

0.2

4.00 x 10 -5 per year


0.8

0.9
0.1

Consequence
Outcome

Frequency of Each
Failure Event

Jet Fire
Flash Fire

2.34 x 10-7 per year


8.00 x 10-7 per year

VCE

8.89 x 10-8 per year

Dispersion

3.56 x 10-6 per year

Jet Fire

6.75 x 10-8 per year

Flash Fire

2.31 x 10-7 per year

VCE

2.57 x 10-8 per year

Dispersion

1.03 x 10-6 per year

Jet Fire

2.00 x 10-6 per year

Flash Fire

6.84 x 10-6 per year

VCE
Dispersion

7.60 x 10-7 per year


3.04 x 10-5 per year

Inventory : LPG = 8000 kg

Figure No.

Proposed Joint User Complex and Wholesale Fish Market at Area 44, Tuen Mun, New Territories
Scale

Event Trees

Page No.

8.4b

NTS

Date

5/ 01

AEC

Failure
Probability

Probability of
Immediate
Ignition

Storage Tank
Partial Failure
(25mm dia.)

Delayed
Ignition

Flash Fire/
VCE

0.05
0.95

-5

1.50 x 10 per year

0.2

0.9
0.1

0.8
0.9

Catastrophic Failure

0.1

0.9

0.9
0.1

5.40 x 10 -7 per year


0.1

Consequence
Outcome

Frequency of Each
Failure Event

Jet Fire
Flash Fire

7.50 x 10 -7 per year


2.56 x 10 -6 per year

VCE

2.85 x 10 -7 per year

Dispersion

1.14 x 10 -5 per year

Fireball

4.86 x 10 -7 per year

Flash Fire
VCE

4.37 x 10 -8 per year


4.86 x 10 -9 per year

Dispersion

5.40 x 10 -9 per year

Jet Fire

2.28 x 10 -7 per year

Flash Fire
VCE

7.78 x 10 -7 per year


8.64 x 10 -8 per year

Dispersion

3.46 x 10 -6 per year

Tank to Vaporisers
0.05
-6

4.55 x 10 per year

0.95

0.2

0.9
0.1

0.8

Inventory : LPG = 10000 kg

Figure No.

Proposed Joint User Complex and Wholesale Fish Market at Area 44, Tuen Mun, New Territories
Scale

Event Trees

Page No.

8.4c

NTS

Date

5/ 01

AEC