Oferta y demanada

Forecasting

Moving averages - 3 period moving average

Data
Period

Demand
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

Next period

Error analysis
Forecast
Error
130
147
150
163
165
180
185
191
186
192
183
195
200
204
208
215

209

142.333333
153.333333
159.333333
169.333333
176.666667
185.333333
187.333333
189.666667
187
190
192.666667
199.666667
204
Total
Average

Absolute

20.6666667 20.6666667
11.6666667 11.6666667
20.6666667 20.6666667
15.6666667 15.6666667
14.3333333 14.3333333
0.66666667 0.66666667
4.66666667 4.66666667
-6.66666667 6.66666667
8
8
10
10
11.3333333 11.3333333
8.33333333 8.33333333
11
11
130.333333 143.666667
10.025641 11.0512821
Bias
MAD
SE

Foreca
250

Squared

|% Error|

427.111111 0.12678937
136.111111 0.07070707
427.111111 0.11481481
245.444444 0.08468468
205.444444 0.07504363
0.44444444 0.00358423
21.7777778 0.02430556
44.4444444 0.03642987
64 0.04102564
100
0.05
128.444444 0.05555556
69.4444444 0.0400641
121 0.05116279
1990.77778 0.77416731
153.136752 0.05955133
MSE
MAPE
13.4528732

200

150
Value
100

50

0
1

8
Time

Forecasting

Demand
Forecast

8
Time

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

Ventas
Forecasting

Additive decomposition
This
This spreadsheet
spreadsheet was
was created
created by
by either
either POM,
POM, QM
QM or
or POM-QM
POM-QM for
for Windows,
Windows, V3.
V3.

4 seasons

Data
Period

Demand (y) Time (x)

1
10
2
20
3
12
4
8
5
12
6
21
7
14
8
11
9
14
10
25
11
15
12
12

Average
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Ratio
14.5
14.5
14.5
14.5
14.5
14.5
14.5
14.5
14.5
14.5
14.5
14.5

Average

Ratios
Season 1

Average

Season 2
-4.5
-2.5
-0.5
-2.5

Season 3
Season 4
5.5
-2.5
-6.5
6.5
-0.5
-3.5
10.5
0.5
-2.5
7.5 -0.83333333 -4.16666667

Forecasts
Period
Unadjusted Seasonal
Adjusted
13 17.4090909
-2.5 14.9090909
14 17.8566434
7.5 25.3566434
15 18.3041958 -0.83333333 17.4708625
16 18.7517483 -4.16666667 14.5850816

-4.5
5.5
-2.5
-6.5
-2.5
6.5
-0.5
-3.5
-0.5
10.5
0.5
-2.5

Windows,
Windows, V3.
V3.

Error analysis
Seasonal
Smoothed
Unadjusted Adjusted
Error
|Error|
-2.5
12.5 12.0384615 9.53846154 0.46153846 0.46153846
7.5
12.5 12.486014 19.986014 0.01398601 0.01398601
-0.83333333 12.8333333 12.9335664 12.1002331 -0.1002331 0.1002331
-4.16666667 12.1666667 13.3811189 9.21445221 -1.21445221 1.21445221
-2.5
14.5 13.8286713 11.3286713 0.67132867 0.67132867
7.5
13.5 14.2762238 21.7762238 -0.77622378 0.77622378
-0.83333333 14.8333333 14.7237762 13.8904429 0.10955711 0.10955711
-4.16666667 15.1666667 15.1713287 11.004662
-0.004662
0.004662
-2.5
16.5 15.6188811 13.1188811 0.88111888 0.88111888
7.5
17.5 16.0664336 23.5664336 1.43356643 1.43356643
-0.83333333 15.8333333 16.513986 15.6806527 -0.68065268 0.68065268
-4.16666667 16.1666667 16.9615385 12.7948718 -0.79487179 0.79487179
Total
1.4211E-014 7.14219114
Intercept
11.5909091
1.1842E-015 0.5951826
Slope
0.44755245
Bias
MAD
SE

Error^2
|% Error|
0.21301775 0.04615385
0.00019561 0.0006993
0.01004667 0.00835276
1.47489418 0.15180653
0.45068218 0.05594406
0.60252335 0.03696304
0.01200276 0.00782551
2.1734E-005 0.00042382
0.77637048 0.06293706
2.05511272 0.05734266
0.46328807 0.04537685
0.63182117 0.06623932
6.68997669 0.54006473
0.55749806 0.04500539
MSE
MAPE
1.05593376

Oferta y demanada
Forecasting

Data
Period

Moving averages - 4 period moving average

Error analysis
Forecast
Error

Demand
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

130
147
150
163
165
180
185
191
186
192
183
195
200
204
208
215

147.5
156.25
164.5
173.25
180.25
185.5
188.5
188
189
192.5
195.5
201.75
Total
Average

Next period

206.75

Absolute

17.5
17.5
23.75
23.75
20.5
20.5
17.75
17.75
5.75
5.75
6.5
6.5
-5.5
5.5
7
7
11
11
11.5
11.5
12.5
12.5
13.25
13.25
141.5
152.5
11.7916667 12.7083333
Bias
MAD
SE

Forecast
Squared

250

|% Error|

200
150

306.25 0.10606061
564.0625 0.13194444
420.25 0.11081081
315.0625 0.09293194
33.0625 0.03091398
42.25 0.03385417
30.25 0.03005464
49 0.03589744
121
0.055
132.25 0.05637255
156.25 0.06009615
175.5625 0.06162791
2345.25 0.80556463
195.4375 0.06713039
MSE
MAPE
15.3142091

Value

100
50
0
1

Time

9 10

Forecasting

Demand
Forecast

0
1

Time

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16