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Ross Haber Materials

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Understanding of the Project

• The Lower Merion School District is seeking a consultant to provide technical assistance to the District regarding changes in current attendance zones. The impetus for the project is the construction of two new high schools scheduled to open in 2009·10 and 20 I 0-"1 I. The District currently comprises 10 schools: 2 high schools, 2 middle schools, and 6 elementary schools.

The two high schools are currently unbalanced in terms of student enrollment with one high school at approximately 1,600 students and the other at 850 students. The goal is to balance the two high schools at approximately 1,250 students each.: In the course of this the high school attendance zones will need to be analyzed and adjusted. This will, in all probability, cause significant changes in feeder patterns from the current middle schools which will in tum impact the elementary school attendance areas. The scope of this project will be to provide data and scenarios to be considered by the Lower Merion Board of Education and Lower Merion Administration for eventual presentation to the public.

In addition to providing information regarding school attendance areas the project will also provide short range and long range enrollment projections. Projections will provide the guidelines to insure that changes in the attendance zones will remain stable for at least through the period of the enrollment projection.

Methodology

Enrollment Projections

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It is our plan to use the Cohort Survival Method to project enrollment for the District both on a district-wide and individual school basis. The study will be based upon a six-yearhistory of enrollment in the District and in each of the District Schools inorder to create average migration ratios as students move from grade to grade. In order to determine the impact of private and parochial schools on the public school enrollment an analysis will be made at transition points to determine if any significant trends exist (e.g.-enrollment changes between elementary and middle school and middle school and highschool).

In order to project kindergarten enrollment two methods are employed. One of the methods is averaging the number of live births attributed to Lower Merion against kindergarten students who enter five years later (e.g.-children born in 1997 become kindergarten students in 2002).

The data for live-births comes from the Pennsylvania Department of Health, Bureau of Vital Statistics). Birth to kindergarten projections are not the most reliable means of doing this, but have been an accepted methodology. We have found that using a six-year moving average for projecting kindergarten students usually produces a more consistent outcome. However, both methods are used and if necessary a combination of the two with weighting factors can produce a

reliable result. .

There has been little new construction in Lower Merion, however, having been informed 'that there is an application approved for 1,500 residential units in the District vie will need to determine during the course of this study what the potential impact will be on student enrollment.

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We will research through the Lower Merion Planning Department what types of units are to be constructed and when these units are expected to be constructed. On the basis of that information we will be able to estimate the impact on student enrollment.

School Attendance Areas

Our study will use our proprietary GIS (Geographic Information Systems) Software. GIS allows us to do the following:

1. Plot the current locations of schools, students, and attendance zones on a digital map of the school district.

2. Aggregate students by virtually any data which exists in the student record such as grade. school attended, ethnicity, socio-economic status, and even test scores if they exist in the student record.

3. The current number of available rooms in each building, as well as the functional capacity of each building.

With this information available the impact on each building can be analyzed as attendance zones are shifted. We can also determine the approximate number of students needing transportation in each scenario based upon the current walk/ride policies of the District. It is our understanding the any changes should not affect transportation costs.

Because of the visual nature of GIS it allows for immediate consideration of safety issues when changing attendance zones. For example, one scenario might show good balance, but require students to walk in hazardous areas or across dangerous iritersections. While this may not be completely avoidable it can be minimized.

GIS also makes the presentation of the findings more easily understood when presented.

Process

During the course of this study it is our intention to meet with Administrators, (both Central and building) and a small committee whose composition will be determined by the Board. These meetings will allow us to present different scenarios for consideration, comment and editing

At a point when all participants agree we will participate in public presentations and continue to edit and refine the scenarios up to the final report which will be adopted by the Board of Education .

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timeline

The Board of Education has already begun the process with Community Meetings and with the hiring of a facilitator. The next step is to begin the actual process of analyzing and adjusting

. attendance zones.

Assuming a mid-June start this is an estimated time line:

Mid-Late June:

Early July:

Mid July:

Mid-Late July:

Early August:

Late August:

Early September:

Fall:

Initial kick off meeting with Administration and the committee.

Data made available for processing

Data entry into the GIS System and the Enrollment Projection Modeling Tables.

Meeting to verify accuracy of all data:

1. Current school locations and attendance areas

2. Historical enrollment

3. Student locations

First pass of enrollment projection report.

First presentation of scenarios tothe Administration and the committee.

Enrollment Projection Report (Final Draft)-although we may want to withhold a final report until the 2008-09 enrollment is available in September.

Second presentation of Scenarios to the Administration and the committee.

Evaluation of several scenarios ... narrowing down the choices.

Decision as to which scenarios are to be presented publicly.

Scheduled public meetings/and or forums to present the findings.

After the first public forum putting the findings on the District website.

Analyzing and validating public comments.

Preparation of Final Report

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January:

Board Adoption

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Enrollment Projection Study

s 3,000. . $ 17,000. s 20,000.

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School Attendance Areas

Total Cost:

This cost is inclusive of an reasonable costs associated with the project including travel expense, lodging, printing reports, maps, mail, meeting times.

There is not limitation on meetings save that they be reasonable in nature with advanced notice .

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Data Required from the District:

Enrollment Projection Data Needed:

1. Enrollment History for the 2002-03 through the 2007-08 school year by district and by school. The enrollment should be reported on the date the District is required to report its final enrollment to the Pennsylvania Department of Education.

2. . A copy of the most recent enrollment study done for or by the District (if available).

School Attendance Areas:

I. A map which shows the current attendance zones for each school, and, if available and any other supporting documents relating to school attendance areas (such as an address guide for each school). The map showing the attendance zones is the most important document needed. The map should also pinpoint the locations of each school.

2~ The street address of each building in the District.

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A student file from the District's student management system (not the routing system) which has the following information: .

Student ID:

Last Name:

First Name:

Address:

Town:

State:

Zipcode:

School:

Grade:

Gender:

Ethnicity:

Special Needs Code:

Socio-economic status: (usually associated with free/reduced lunch . .if available).

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From the Transportation System the same information for private/parochial school students.

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Floor plans for each building and/or a document for each building which details the number of available classrooms .

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There will be.other information requested along the way, but this is the minimum needed to begin the project.

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