MANITOBA

[JANUARY 27, 2016]

METHODOLOGY
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,628 Manitoba residents by Smart IVR on January
25th, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.43%, 19
times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Winnipeg: +/-3.47%; Rest of Manitoba: +/-3.4%;
19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age and gender based on the 2011 Census.

A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

PCs DOMINATING
January 27, 2016 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds the PC Party continuing to lead in
Manitoba with the Liberals and NDP tied for second. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error
of +/- 2.43%, 19 times out of 20.
The PCs are continuing to dominate throughout the province said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet
Research. They now have almost twice the support of either the Liberals or NDP in Winnipeg, while they
hold an even larger lead in the rest of the province.
Among Decided and Leaning Voters: PCs 52% (+8%), NDP 20% (-3%), Liberals 20% (-7%), Greens 9% (+3%)
Most PC voters (76%) have decided theyve made up their mind, continued Maggi. Those numbers drop
for the NDP (64%) and Liberals (55%) so there is potential for movement. With both parties in second place
the race to be the PC alternative may be the most crucial.
In the race to be the PC alternative both the NDP and Liberals face challenges. For the NDP, it is Greg
Selingers high disapproval rating: 60% of Manitobans disapprove of the job hes doing. For the Liberals, it
is Rana Bokharis visibility: 41% dont know what to make of her yet. Interestingly while her support in
Winnipeg is higher, the support she has in the rest of the province is actually stronger. Support for Mr.
Palister meanwhile is solid throughout the province.
These kinds of results this far out make it Brian Palisters race to lose. With over half the province indicating
they will vote PC and 2/3 of those voters saying they have made up their mind it will take a lot to displace
him at the top of the polls. The more interesting race right now is who the non-PC alternative will be - if
there isnt one it could be a landslide win for the PCs. If the Liberals and NDP spit the non-PC vote it could
lead to a lot of surprise PC wins on election night, nished Maggi.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?

15%
26%

7%

39%

14%

NDP

PC

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGER

PC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTER
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARI
GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOME
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGER

PC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTER
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARI
GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOME
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

Liberal

Green

18-34
16%
34%
9%
9%
33%
172

35-49
12%
37%
22%
8%
21%
388

Undecided

50-64
16%
37%
15%
5%
26%
495

65+ Male Female

15% 14%
15%
49% 40% 37%
10% 13%
15%
3%
7%
6%
23% 26%
26%
573 770
858

Winnipeg
18%
33%
15%
8%
27%
797

Rest of MB
10%
49%
12%
5%
24%
831

A4

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support? (DECIDED AND LEANING)

9%
20%

20%

52%

NDP

PC

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGER

PC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTER
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARI
GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOME
NDP LED BY GREG SELINGER
PC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTER
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARI
GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOME

Liberal
18-34
20%
50%
14%
15%

Green
35-49
17%
47%
27%
9%

50-64
21%
49%
23%
7%

65+ Male Female

20% 19%
20%
63% 53%
50%
14% 19%
21%
4% 10%
9%

Winnipeg
23%
46%
21%
10%

Rest of MB
14%
61%
17%
8%

A5

And which party are you leaning towards voting for? (UNDECIDED ONLY)

7%

19%

60%

10%

5%

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

Undecided

A6

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,

or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?

NDP
Strong 64%
Might Change 28%
Not Sure 8%

PC
Strong 76%
Might Change 16%
Not Sure 8%

LIBERAL
Strong 55%
Might Change 28%
Not Sure 17%

A7

And who would be your second choice? [MIGHT CHANGE/NOT SURE ONLY]

PC 17%
UD 23%

UD 27%
NDP 32%

GPC 4%

GP 17%

MLP 43%

MLP 37%

PC VOTERS

NDP VOTERS

UD 15%
UD 21%

PC 33%

PC 36%

GP 9%

MLP 33%
NDP 11%

NDP 43%

LIBERAL VOTERS

GREEN PARTY VOTERS

A8

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rana Bokhari is handling her job as Liberal Leader?

10%

10%
26%
15%
8%
41%

41%

15%

8%

Strongly Approve

Somewhat Approve

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

26%

Somewhat Disapprove

18-34
13%
23%
10%
11%
43%

35-49
11%
28%
16%
4%
42%

Strongly Disapprove

50-64
6%
28%
17%
9%
41%

65+
8%
27%
17%
11%
37%

Winnipeg
7%
31%
16%
8%
38%

Not Sure

Male Female
10%
9%
27%
25%
14%
15%
8%
8%
40% 42%
Rest of MB
15%
18%
13%
8%
46%

A9

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Greg Selinger is handling his job as NDP Leader?

11%

11%

11%
18%
18%
42%
11%
18%

42%

18%

Strongly Approve

Somewhat Approve

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

Somewhat Disapprove

18-34
15%
19%
13%
42%
11%

35-49
8%
19%
23%
40%
11%

Strongly Disapprove

50-64
10%
17%
18%
43%
13%

Not Sure

65+ Male Female

11% 10%
13%
18% 17%
19%
18% 18%
18%
45% 46%
38%
8%
9%
13%

Winnipeg
12%
22%
19%
37%
11%

Rest of MB
10%
12%
16%
51%
11%

A10

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Brian Pallister is handling his job as PC Leader?

16%
21%

21%
31%
15%
16%
16%

16%

31%
15%

Strongly Approve

Somewhat Approve

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

Somewhat Disapprove

18-34
23%
25%
9%
20%
24%

35-49
18%
33%
20%
14%
15%

Strongly Disapprove

50-64
18%
32%
16%
19%
15%

65+
28%
37%
17%
10%
9%

Winnipeg
17%
32%
18%
15%
18%

Not Sure

Male Female
25%
18%
28%
34%
15%
15%
19%
14%
14%
19%
Rest of MB
28%
29%
10%
19%
14%

A11

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?
NDP led by Greg Selinger
Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister
Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari
Green Party led James Beddome
Undecided
And, which party are you leaning towards? [Undecided Only]
NDP led by Greg Selinger
Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister
Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari
Green Party led James Beddome
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change
your mind before the next election?
Strong Supporter
Might Change Mind
Not Sure
And who would be your second choice?
NDP led by Greg Selinger
Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister
Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari
Green Party led James Beddome
Undecided
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rana Bokhari is handling her job as Liberal Leader?
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Greg Selinger is handling his job as NDP Leader?
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Brian Pallister is handling his job as Progressive Conservative
Leader?
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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