IIMT 3636

Assignment 01
(Chapter 01 Probability Concepts and Applications; Due on Feb 1 at 12:00 noon)

1. The oasis outpost of Abu Ilan, in the heart of the Negev desert, has a population of 23 Bedouin
tribesmen and 25 Farima tribesmen. El Kamin, a nearby oasis, has a population of 35 Bedouins and 9
Farima. A lost Israeli soldier, accidentally separated from his army unit, is wandering through the desert
and arrives at the edge of one of the oases. The soldier has no idea which oasis he has found, but the
first person he spots at a distance is a Bedouin. What is the probability that he wandered into Abu Ilan?
What is the probability that he is in El Kamin?

2. The time to complete a construction project is normally distributed with a mean of 61 weeks and a
standard deviation of 3 weeks. (a) What is the probability the project will be finished in 63 weeks or less?
(b) What is the probability the project will be finished in 66 weeks or less? (c) What is the probability the
project will take longer than 65 weeks?

3. Armstrong Faber produces a standard number-two pencil called Ultra-Lite. The demand for Ultra-Lite
has been fairly stable over the past 6 years. On average, Armstrong Faber has sold 457,000 pencils each
year. Furthermore, 90% of the time sales have been between 454,000 and 460,000 pencils. It is
expected that the sales follow a normal distribution with a mean of 457,000 pencils. Estimate the
standard deviation of this distribution. (Hint: you may need the Standard Normal Table provided in the
next page.)

4. Market Researchers, Inc., has been hired to perform a study to determine if the market for a new
product will be good or poor. In similar studies performed in the past, whenever the market actually was
good, the market research study indicated that it would be good 85% of the time. On the other hand,
whenever the market actually was poor, the market study incorrectly predicted it would be good 20% of
the time. Before the study is performed, it is believed there is a 70% chance the market will be good.
When Market Researchers, Inc. performs the study for this product, the results predict the market will
be good. Given the results of this study, what is the probability that the market actually will be good?

IIMT 3636
Standard Normal Table