ALBERTA

[FEBRUARY 2016 B]

METHODOLOGY
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 3,092 Alberta residents by Smart IVR on February 3rd,
2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 1.76%, 19 times out
of 20. Regional margins of error: Calgary: +/- 3.09%; Edmonton: +/- 2.98%; Rest of Alberta:
+/- 3.09%; 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age, gender and geography based
on the 2011 Census.

A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

NDP SLIDES INTO THIRD

February 6th, 2016 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nd if an election were held
today in Alberta it would be a tight three way race - with the NDP in third. The
Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.76%, 19 times out of 20.
Quite frankly Premier Notley walked into a scal disaster said Quito Maggi, President of
Mainstreet Research. The big story here is the return of Albertas PC party. Theres nothing theyve
particularly done in the last few months that stands out - this is movement based on
disappointment with the NDP government. Even though the Premier doesnt set the price of oil,
shes the one in power. She just happens to be in the right place at the wrong time.
Among decided voters it would be a tight race with all parties within 5%. The Wildrose would lead
with 33%, the PCs would follow at 31% and the NDP would stand at 27%.
Meanwhile Notleys approval rating continues to fall to a new low of 36%. She is universally beloved
by NDP supporters however. 98% of NDP voters approve of her performance.
Those who like her, love her, continued Maggi. Meanwhile, most Albertans are happy with the
results of the Royalty Review, 60% say they approve of the outcome. NDP supporters are the most
supportive so this has gone over well with the NDP base.
We also found strong support for job incentive programs. 56% say they approve and only 25% are
opposed, he nished.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels
of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public
aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been
the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?

40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
June 2015
NDP

October 2015
Wildrose

PC

November 2015
Liberal

NDP
WILDROSE PARTY
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVES
ALBERTA LIBERAL PARTY
ALBERTA PARTY
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

18-34
24%
20%
32%
5%
8%
11%
292

NDP
WILDROSE PARTY
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVES
ALBERTA LIBERAL PARTY
ALBERTA PARTY
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

Total
23%
29%
27%
4%
4%
13%
3092

Alberta

Present
Undecided

35-49 50-64
17%
31%
37%
28%
29%
23%
6%
2%
1%
1%
10%
14%
688
984

65+
22%
33%
17%
2%
4%
22%
1128

Male Female
23%
24%
30%
28%
29%
25%
5%
3%
4%
3%
9%
17%
1518 1574

Edmonton
40%
14%
16%
7%
5%
17%
1080

Calgary
21%
28%
25%
8%
6%
12%
1004

Rest of AB
19%
33%
31%
2%
2%
13%
1008

A4

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support? (Decided Only)

40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
June 2015

NDP

October 2015

Wildrose

November 2015

PC

Liberal

Present

Alberta

NDP
WILDROSE PARTY
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVES
ALBERTA LIBERAL PARTY
ALBERTA PARTY
SAMPLE

18-34
27%
23%
36%
5%
9%
254

35-49 50-64
19%
36%
41%
33%
32%
27%
7%
3%
1%
1%
616
836

NDP
WILDROSE PARTY
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVES
ALBERTA LIBERAL PARTY
ALBERTA PARTY
SAMPLE

Total
27%
33%
31%
5%
4%
2614

Edmonton
48%
18%
20%
9%
5%
878

65+ Male Female

28% 25%
29%
43% 33%
34%
22% 32%
30%
2%
6%
3%
5%
4%
4%
908 1329 1285
Calgary
24%
32%
29%
9%
7%
876

Rest of AB
22%
38%
35%
2%
3%
860

A5

And, do you approve or disapprove of the way Rachel Notley is handling her job as Premier?

65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
May 2015
TOTAL APPROVAL: 36%
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

June 2015

August 2015

Present

TOTAL DISAPPROVAL: 57%

18-34
29%
9%
10%
45%
7%

35-49
18%
13%
17%
48%
4%

Edmonton
44%
15%
11%
21%
9%

50-64
25%
14%
13%
41%
6%
Calgary
22%
15%
25%
31%
8%

NOT SURE: 7%
65+
15%
21%
18%
32%
14%

Male Female
21%
25%
17%
10%
14%
14%
45%
41%
4%
10%
Rest of Alberta
17%
12%
10%
55%
6%

A6

Premiers Approval Rating by Party Aliation

NDP

Wildrose

PC

Undecided

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

NDP
77%
21%
2%
0%
0%

Wildrose
4%
7%
17%
71%
1%

PC
3%
11%
19%
63%
4%

Undecided
6%
17%
13%
24%
41%

A7

The provincial government completed its royalty review and decided to not change the royalties for oilsands
operators on existing oil and gas wells. From everything you have seen, heard or read, do you approve or
disapprove of the governments action?

20%

20%

TOTAL APPROVAL: 60%

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

60%

TOTAL DISAPPROVAL: 20%

18-34 35-49
37%
37%
17%
23%
13%
11%
4%
14%
28%
15%
Edmonton
47%
24%
8%
4%
18%

NOT SURE: 20%

50-64 65+ Male Female

32%
26% 37%
32%
34%
33% 25%
26%
12%
14% 14%
10%
7%
9%
8%
9%
14%
19% 16%
23%
Calgary
Rest of Alberta
33%
31%
34%
23%
13%
14%
5%
11%
15%
22%

A8

Royalty Review Approval by Party Aliation

NDP

Wildrose

PC

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

Undecided

NDP
45%
31%
13%
1%
10%

Wildrose
40%
24%
14%
9%
13%

PC
29%
25%
13%
12%
21%

Undecided
20%
20%
9%
9%
42%

A9

And, should the Alberta government oer incentives to the energy industry to help promote more drilling,
explorationactivityand job creation?

20%

56%

25%

YES: 56%
YES
NO
NOT SURE
YES
NO
NOT SURE

NOT SURE: 20%

NO: 25%
18-34
52%
27%
22%

35-49
66%
24%
10%

Edmonton
44%
30%
26%

50-64
52%
28%
20%
Calgary
53%
28%
19%

65+ Male Female

49% 58%
54%
17% 28%
21%
34% 14%
25%
Rest of Alberta
61%
22%
18%

A10

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?
NDP led by Rachel Notley
Wildrose Party led by Brian Jean
Progressive Conservatives led by Ric McIver
Alberta Liberal Party led by David Swann
Alberta party led by Greg Clark
Undecided
And, do you approve or disapprove of the way Rachel Notley is handling her job as Premier?
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Not Sure
The provincial government completed its royalty review and decided to not change the royalties for
oilsands operators on existing oil and gas wells. From everything you have seen, heard or read, do you
approve or disapprove of the governments action?
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Not Sure
And, should the Alberta government oer incentives to the energy industry to help promote more
drilling, explorationactivityand job creation?
Yes
No
Not Sure

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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