Madison Moore

Community Profile
Area ranchers and the Texas and Pacific Railway founded my
community, Abilene, Texas, in 1881. Dyess Air Force Base has been in
Abilene since 1956. Abilene is home to three universities: HardinSimmons, Abilene Christian and McMurry University. In 2014, Forbes
Magazine named Abilene one of the top twenty-five places to retire in
America. The city is located in Taylor County and the Abilene
Metropolitan Statistical Area.

In 2010, the Abilene population was 117,063 and Taylor County

131,506 and the population of Texas totalled 25,145,516. The Abilene
population has been continually increasing over the last two decades
with a 1990 population of 106,654 and 119,655 in Taylor County
compared to a 2000 population of 115,930 in Abilene and 126,555 in
Taylor County. The population of Texas in 2000 was 20,851,820.
The Abilene absolute population change from 2000 to 2010 was
1,133. For the same decade the percent population change for the
decade as 0.98%, the average annual absolute population change was
113.3 and the average annual exponential population growth rate as
0.004.

The population is projected to keep growing. Using the 0.5

scenario, defined as population growing at half of the rate as the
previous decade, for 2015 the Abilene MSA population will be 170,766
and for 2020 projection year it would total 175,677. Using the 1.0
scenario (population grows at the same rate as the previous decade)
the population for 2015 is projected to be 170,761 and with a 2020
projection year is 175,333.
The chart below shows the population projections using different
simple trend and ration approaches and displays the average and
trimmed average. The constant ratio approach yields the highest
projections in every scenario. Linear simple trend approach yields the
smallest projection in each scenario due to growth not speeding up at
the end of the time frame like exponential and geometric. The 0.5
scenario yields a higher projection than the 1.0 scenarios. The
geometric and exponential simple trend approaches produce the same
results. These are better representations of the population given that
populations do not usually grow in a linear way. The 10-year 2015
projections are the smallest while the 20-year 2020 projections are the
highest.

The

20-year

projections

are

higher

than

the

10-year

projections for the same scenario. The simple trend approaches do not
tend to have such a drastic projected growth over the years as the
ratio approaches. However, the constant and shift share approaches
for 2015 are far greater than the current population. All of the constant
and shift share approaches are greater than any of the share of growth
approach projections. In contrast, the simple trend approaches tend to
underestimate the growth. I believe that the share of growth approach
is the most realistic and representative of Abilene, with a 2020 1.0
scenario? projected population of 125,918.
2015
10 year

20 year

2020
10 year

20 year

Simple trend approaches

Linear
117,630
geometric
117,634
exponential
117,634
ratio approaches
Constant
0.5
152,011
1.0
152,007
Shift Share
0.5
149,802
1.0
149,798
Share of

119,665
119,820
119,820

118,196
118,207
118,207

122,268
122,642
122,642

154,178
154,173

156,383
156,077

158,612
158,301

151,961
151,957

151,838
151,540

156,280
155,974

growth
0.5
118,325 121,906 119,449
126,220
1.0
118,324 121,902 119,370
125,918
Averages based on simple (linear & exponential) and 1.0
scenario ratio
Average of all 131,080. 133,503.
5 projections

Trimmed
Average
(without

the

highest

&

132,678

137,020.

=131,08

=133,50

=137,021

1
128,589

3
131,226.

129,705.

134,844.

333

6667

6667

=131,22

=129,706 =134,845

lowest
projections)
One average used to summarize all of the data was the average
of all 5 projections: linear, exponential and the 1.0 scenarios of share
of growth, shift share and constant. This average summarizes all of tbe
projections. Another average used was the trimmed average which
does not factor in the highest and lowest of the 5 projections use in the
earlier average and only averages the three middle values. The
average of all five projections, when keeping year and scenarios

constant, is always higher than the trimmed average. The trimmed

average is the best representation of the data and provides the best
averages for a forecast. I would be most comfortable using this one
because it removes the outliers and is a better representation of the
datas true average. Additionally, using the trimmed average allows
less room for error and allows for more accurate forecasts and a more
confident choice for future predictions. The linear assumes that growth
is constant and grows in a linear fashion. An exponential and geometric
model assumes that growth speeds up. Ratio methods are projections
based on the area as a share of the parent area with the assumption
they grow at the same rate. For constant-share ration method the
assumption is that the share of population will be constant between
your area and your parent area. Shift-share ratio approach takes into
account changes in the share of the population between your area and
your parent area. This method assumes that the changes that have
already occurred will continue to occur between your launch and your
target year. A problem with this method arises if the areas growth
declined during the base period. With share-of-growth we are
distributing the share of growth to the smaller area. However this
assumes the smaller and larger areas have the same trajectories;
otherwise problems can arise. A ten-year base assumes that the
growth is the same for the past ten years as it will be for the next ten
years. A twenty-year base assumes that growth for the past twenty
years is the same for the next twenty years. The 1.0 scenario is
assuming that the growth for the next ten years will be the same as
the previous ten years, or time allotment. The 0.5 scenario assumes
that the growth for the projection is half of the growth for the previous
decade. Ideally the 0.5 scenario is used in the long term while the 1.0
scenario is used to project the next five to ten years. For Abilene the
0.5 scenario is best for any year because of the modest growth over
the past few years. Also the vast majority of the share of Taylor

Countys population resides in Abilene and explains why there is such a

great difference between the projected populations of the shift share,
constant and share of growth ratio methods. Also the trimmed average
would be the best representation of my area because of the large
range of my data.
In 2000, Abilene was 68.8% non-Hispanic White but in 2010 that
percentage dropped to 62.4%. All other races and ethnicities increased
in the same decade. Latinos and Hispanics increased from 19.4% to
24.5%; non-Hispanic Black increased from 8.6% to 9.1% and nonHispanic other increased from 3.2% to 4.0% from 2000 to 2010. This
shows that Abilene is becoming a more diverse area.
Households with children under the age of eighteen make up
33% of the households in Abilene. While households with individuals
sixty-five years and older composes 23.7% of all households. The
average household and family size was not available on the American
Fact Finder website.
In 2010, there was a large presence of people aged 20-29 and is
attributed to the presence of three universities and an area junior and
technical college. The gender distribution is fairly even between males
and females until the age of about 65 in which females start to out
number males. In 2000, there was a much smaller percentage of
fifteen to twenty-one year olds. The age groups were heavily
concentrated in those under the age of fourteen and those between
the ages or twenty-two to fifty-nine. The number of people in their
sixties was much lower however the gender composition was similar. It
is fairly equal until around the age of sixty-five when females start to
outweigh the males.

Abilene Population 2000

Males
Age Group

Females

-10,000

-5,000

5,000

Population

Source: Census Bureau: 2000 SF1

Abilene Population 2010

Age Group

Male

Female
10000

5000

5000

10000

Population

Source: Census Bureau: 2010 SF1

In 2010 there were 47,783 total housing units with 43,612,

or 91.3%, of those reported as occupied. Family households account for

27,973 of these households and the other 15,689 are nonfamily

households. There were 24,947 owner-occupied housing units with an
aggregate population of 63,076. Those households had an average size
of 2.53. Renter-occupied housing units accounted for 18,665 units with
a population of 44,395 and an average household size of 2.38. There
were 4,171 vacant housing units with 2,039 available for rent and 506
for sale. There were ninety-seven rented-but-unoccupied units, 192
sold-and-unoccupied and 218 for seasonal use only. The remainder of
units, 1,149, were vacant for other reasons. This indicates that in 2010,
107,471 of the 117,063 residents were in households. Abilene homes
are mostly family-occupied and owner-occupied. The owner-owned
homes also have a larger average household size than renters.
Abilene, compared to the national average, is an inexpensive
place to live. In 2012, the median rent was $717 and the median
housing value was $135,400 in the United States. Abilene median rent
in 2012 was $745 +/-21 and the median housing value was $86,500
+/-2,912. In 2009 the Abilene median rent was $687+/-22 and the
housing value was $82,600+/-3,199. After those values are CPIadjusted, for the purchasing power of the dollar in 2012, the 2009
median rent is $730 +/-23.40 and the housing value was $87,817.79
+/-3,401.08. Between 2009 and 2012 the median rent in Abilene
increased by nearly $15 per month while the housing value decreased
by over $1,300.
In 2010, the Abilene median housing value was $88,400 +/-2,071
and the median rent was $723 +/-19. The median housing value is
higher than the value of 2012 but the median rent fits the trend of the
2009 and 2012 data. The median monthly owner costs for home with a
mortgage was $1,091 +/-28 and without a mortgage $428 +/-12.
There is a large difference between having a mortgage and not having
one. This information was found for the ACS 5-year estimates.

The unemployment rate for the Abilene MSA and the state of
Texas followed very similar trends during the period fro 2002 to 2012.
The unemployment rate for both was steadily declining until they both
spiked in 2009 following the economic crash of 2008. Since 2010, the
rates have begun to slowly decline once again. However, the Abilene
MSA unemployment rate, for this time span, is always below the Texas
rate.

Annual Unemployment Rates

10

Unemployment Rate

Abilene MSA
Unemployment Rate

Texas Unemployment Rate

Year (2002-2012)

Source: BLS
Unemployment
One reason Abilene survived the economic crash so well was in
1989 Abilene became the first city in Texas to adopt a half-cent sales
tax devoted specifically to economic growth. This led to $8.6 million in
economic growth in 2008. The voter-approved tax was adopted after
the economic slump of the 1980s and helped Abilene avoid major
crisis in 2008.
The Personal Income of Taylor County for 2013 was
$5,606,111,000. A large portion of those earnings came from the
health care and social assistance sector and mining industries. Those,
along with retail trade, construction, finance and insurance are a major
part of the economy for Abilene. Industries that have little presence in
the Abilene economy are forestry, fishing, arts, entertainment and
recreation, and management of companies and enterprises.

Earnings by Non-Farm Industries in Abilene, TX

Industry

500000 1000000

Earnings (in thousands)

Source: BLS
Earnings
The industries employing the most people in the United States is
health care and social assistance and retail trade. Other industries that
employ large numbers of people are accommodation and food service,
manufacturing and waste management and remediation. Industries
employing the fewest people in the country are mining and utilities. In
the state of Texas the industries that employ the most people are
health care and social assistance, retail trade and accommodation and
food services. The industries that employ the least amount of people in
Texas are utilities, agriculture, forestry and fishing and management of
companies and enterprises. In Abilene, industries that employ the most
people are health care and social assistance, retail trade and
construction. Low employment industries are agriculture, forestry and
fishing, utilities and real estate and rental industries. This chart implies
that Abilene supplies and exports oil and gas while industry sectors

importing to Abilene include Manufacturing, Agriculture products,

Technical Services and Warehousing from other places. Abilene could
look to grow in areas they are lacking, such as Manufacturing and
Technical Services. It would be a good investment because it would
take the pressure off of importing so much from other places. Across all
areas the health industry earns the most and employs the most
people. The United States tends to be higher in Accommodation and
Food Services, Manufacturing and Agriculture. The Abilene economy
differs from the national and state economies in its emphasis on
mining and lack of presence in the agriculture, forestry and fishing
industry. I find it interesting that Abilene is so low in Agriculture
compared to Texas and the U.S.
According to the location quotients, Abilene is equally specialized
in Finance and Insurance, Wholesale Trade and retail trade as Texas
and the United States. Abilene is much less concentrated in
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing than the United States and has a
location quotient of 0.45. Also this area is less concentrated in
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services with a LQ of 0.54.
Abilene, with a LQ of 5.49 is much more heavily concentrated in the
Mining, Quarrying, Oil and Gas Extraction industry.

Source: BLS
Employment
In the Abilene MSA there are 51,969 jobs with 30,017 of those
jobs filled by residents of the MSA. People living outside the selection
area fill the other 21,952 jobs. Residents of the MSA also fill 16,455
jobs that are outside of Abilene.

Source: On The Map Destination

Analysis
Residents fill about sixty percent of the jobs in the MSA. Lots of
people live outside city and area limits which could account for the
external labor. Nearby towns such as San Angelo, Potosi, Lubbock,
Merkel, Fort Worth, Wichita Falls, Midland, and Dallas provide only
about 8.1% of the labor for the MSA. All other locations, including those
outside city limits, account for 33.4% of the labor force in the Abilene
MSA.

Where Abilene Workers Live

Abilene city, TX

San Angelo city, TX

Potosi CDP, TX

Lubbock city, TX

Merkel town, TX

Sweetwater city, TX

Fort Worth city, TX

Wichita Falls city, TX

Midland city, TX

Dallas city, TX

All Other Locations

Source: On The Map Destination Analysis

For the jobs Abilenians fill outside the area, 81.4% are filled by people under the
age of fifty-four and 70.6% are filled by people who make $3,333/month or less. About
half of those jobs are found in either the good producing industry or the trade,
transportation and utilities industry. Out of the 21,952 internal jobs filled by external
workers in the Abilene area 80.4% of them are filled by people between the ages of 29-54
and 70.3% of those workers make $3,333/month or less. Only 32.3% of the internal jobs
filled by outsiders are in the goods producing and trade, transportation, and utilities
industries. There are 30,017 internal jobs filled by residents of the area. Of those jobs
79.4% of them are filled by people between the ages of 29-54 and 72.5% of the workers
make $3,333/month or less. Out of these jobs 75.8% of them are in industries outside of
goods producing and trade, transportation and utilities. These results affect which method
I would choose to determine the spatial unit of analysis for Abilene because only 60% of
the workers in Abilene also live in Abilene. A few other cities contribute workers but
33.4% of the workers dont live in a listed community. Most of these people would live
outside of the Abilene city limits and not in an incorporated municipality and would lead
me to increase the spatial unit of analysis for Abilene.

In conclusion, Abilene households are mostly owner-owned,

family households. The area is becoming more diverse as the
percentage of minorities is increasing and whites are decreasing. The
main industries for the area are health care and mining but health care
and retail trade employ the most people. The unemployment rate
follows closely that of Texas and spiked after the 2008 economic crash.
Abilene was helped in the crash by their half-cent sales tax for
economic development. Nearly sixty-percent of the jobs in the Abilene
MSA are filled by residents and residents fill just over sixteen thousand
jobs outside the MSA.

References
AbilenetexasmapGoogleSearch.(n.d.).RetrievedMay9,2015,fromhttps://www.google.com/search?
q=abilenetexas
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%2Fpics2.citydata.com%2Fcity%2Fmaps%2Ffr202.p
AmericanFactFinder.(n.d.).RetrievedMay3,2015,from
http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml
TexasDemographicDataUserConference.(n.d.).RetrievedMay3,2015,fromhttp://txsdc.utsa.edu/
OnTheMap.(n.d.).RetrievedMay3,2015,fromhttp://onthemap.ces.census.gov/
U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics.(n.d.).RetrievedMay3,2015,fromhttp://www.bls.gov/home.htm
U.S.EconomicAccounts.(n.d.).RetrievedMay3,2015,fromhttp://www.bea.gov