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Method 1

BMI between 25 & 30


X 35% actively trying to lose weight
X 15% who are comfortable using diet pills
10% purchase Metabical in Year 1
Adding 5% each subsequent year
plus 60% buying a second pack
plus 20% of these buy a third pack
Sales

Year 1
78,200,000
27,370,000
4,105,500

410,550
246,330
49,266
706,146

Method 2
BMI between 25 and 30
X 12% who go to a doctor for prescription
10% purchase Metabical in Year 1
Adding 5% each subsequent year
plus 60% buying a second pack
plus 20% of these buy a third pack
Sales

78,200,000
9,384,000

938,400
563,040
112,608
1,614,048

Method 3
Ideal target (overweight 35-65, college edu. Females)

4,300,000

30% purchase Metabical in Year 1


Adding 5% each subsequent year
plus 60% buying a second pack
plus 20% of these buy a third pack

1,290,000
774,000
154,800

Sales

2,218,800

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

78,200,000
27,370,000
4,105,500

78,200,000
27,370,000
4,105,500

78,200,000 78,200,000
27,370,000 27,370,000
4,105,500 4,105,500

615,825
369,495
73,899

821,100
492,660
98,532

1,059,219

1,412,292

1,765,365 2,118,438

78,200,000
9,384,000

78,200,000
9,384,000

78,200,000 78,200,000
9,384,000 9,384,000

1,407,600
844,560
168,912

1,876,800
1,126,080
225,216

2,421,072

3,228,096

4,300,000

4,300,000

4,300,000

4,300,000

1,505,000
903,000
180,600

1,720,000
1,032,000
206,400

1,935,000
1,161,000
232,200

2,150,000
1,290,000
258,000

2,588,600

2,958,400

1,026,375
615,825
123,165

2,346,000
1,407,600
281,520

1,231,650
738,990
147,798

2,815,200
1,689,120
337,824

4,035,120 4,842,144

3,328,200 3,698,000

Gross Margin Forecast


Retail Price
Forecast Method 1
Forecast Method 2
Forecast Method 3

Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
$17,512,421 $26,268,631 $35,024,842 $43,781,052
$40,028,390 $60,042,586 $80,056,781 $100,070,976
$55,026,240 $64,197,280 $73,368,320 $82,539,360

Retail Price
Forecast Method 1
Forecast Method 2
Forecast Method 3

Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
$41,048,267 $61,572,400 $82,096,534 $102,620,667
$93,824,610 $140,736,915 $187,649,220 $234,561,526
$128,978,844 $150,475,318 $171,971,792 $193,468,266

Retail Price
Forecast Method 1
Forecast Method 2
Forecast Method 3

Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
$52,819,721 $79,229,581 $105,639,442 $132,049,302
$120,730,790 $181,096,186 $241,461,581 $301,826,976
$165,966,240 $193,627,280 $221,288,320 $248,949,360

Year 5
Cumulative
$52,537,262
$175,124,208
$120,085,171
$400,283,904
$91,710,400
$366,841,600

Year 5
Cumulative
$123,144,801
$410,482,670
$281,473,831
$938,246,102
$214,964,740
$859,858,960

Year 5
Cumulative
$158,459,162
$528,197,208
$362,192,371 $1,207,307,904
$276,610,400 $1,106,441,600