Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
903,374.4 925,958.7 950,033.6 971,884.4 996,181.5
0
6
9
7
8
A partir de estos datos elabore la proyeccin futura de concentrado que tendra el pas
utilizando en primer lugar regresin y en segundo lugar tasas de crecimiento para los
aos 2013-2023.
METODO DE REGRESIN
X =No
No
n
X 1=1
15
15
=13=2 X 2=2 =23=1
5
5
X 3=3
15
15
=33=0 X 4=4 =43=1
5
5
X 5=5
15
15
=53=2 X 15=15 =153=12
5
5
X 16=16
15
15
=163=13 X 17=17 =173=14
5
5
X 18=18
15
15
=183=15 X 19=19 =13=16
5
5
X 20=20
15
15
=203=17 X 21=21 =213=18
5
5
X 22=22
15
15
=223=19 X 23=23 =233=20
5
5
X 24=24
15
15
=243=21 X 25=25 =253=22
5
5
Ecuacin
Y =949,486.6+23,154.01 X
Ao 2013
Ao 2014
Ao 2015
Ao 2016
Ao 2017
Ao 2018
Ao 2019
Ao 2020
Ao 2021
Ao 2022
Ao 2023
Ao
METODO DE TASA DE
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
qq/ao
2022
2023
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Demanda
Proyectada
(qq/ao)
1227,335.00
1250,489.00
1273,643.00
1296,797.00
1319,951.00
1343,105.00
CRECIMIENTO
1366,259.00
1389,413.00
1412,567.00
Concentrado
1435,721.00
1458,875.00
903,374.40
925,958.76
950,033.69
971,884.47
996,181.58
tc
tc (%)
r=
0.02475
2.475
PF
996,181.47
1= 4
1=0.02475
PO
903,374.40
F=P ( 1+r )n
Y n=P ( 1+r )n
Ao
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Demanda
Proyectada
(qq/ao)
1272,089.82
1303,574.04
1335,837.50
1368,899.48
1402,779.74
1437,498.54
1473,076.63
1509,535.28
1546,896.27
1585,181.95
1624,415.21
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
822,070.7 824,103.3 874,031.6 923,290.2 936,410.6
1
0
0
4
8
X =No
No
n
X 1=1
15
15
=13=2 X 2=2 =23=1
5
5
X 3=3
15
15
=33=0 X 4=4 =43=1
5
5
X 5=5
15
15
=53=2 X 15=15 =153=12
5
5
X 16=16
15
15
=163=13 X 17=17 =173=14
5
5
X 18=18
15
15
=183=15 X 19=19 =13=16
5
5
X 20=20
15
15
=203=17 X 21=21 =213=18
5
5
X 22=22
15
15
=223=19 X 23=23 =233=20
5
5
X 24=24
15
15
=243=21 X 25=25 =253=22
5
5
Ecuacin
Y =875,981.3+32,786.69 X
Ao 2013
Ao 2014
Ao 2015
Ao 2016
Ao 2017
Ao 2018
Ao 2019
Ao 2020
Ao 2021
Ao 2022
Ao 2023
Ao
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Oferta
Proyectada
(qq/ao)
1269,422.00
1302,208.00
1334,995.00
1367,782.00
1400,568.00
1433,355.00
1466,142.00
1498,928.00
1531,715.00
1564,502.00
1597,289.00
qq/ao
r=
Concentrado
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
822,070.71
824,103.30
874,031.60
923,290.24
936,410.68
tc
tc (%)
0.03309
3.309
PF
936,410.68
1= 4
1=0.03309
PO
822,070.71
F=P ( 1+r )n
Y n=P ( 1+r )
10
18
Ao
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Oferta
Proyectada
(qq/ao)
1296,725.15
1339,633.79
1383,962.27
1429,757.58
1477,068.26
1525,944.45
1576,437.95
1628,602.28
1682,492.73
1738,166.42
1795,682.34
Produccin
Consumo
(qq/ao)
total (qq/ao)
1269,422.00
1227,335.00
1302,208.00
1250,489.00
1334,995.00
1273,643.00
1367,782.00
1296,797.00
1400,568.00
1319,951.00
1433,355.00
1343,105.00
1466,142.00
1366,259.00
Balance
(qq/ao)
42,087.00
51,719.00
61,352.00
70,985.00
80,617.00
90,250.00
99,883.00
2020
2021
1498,928.00
1531,715.00
2022
1564,502.00
2023
1597,289.00
109,515.0
1389,413.00
0
1412,567.00 119,148.00
128,781.0
1435,721.00
0
138,414.0
1458,875.00
0
Produccin
Consumo
(qq/ao)
total (qq/ao)
1296,725.15
1272,089.82
1339,633.79
1303,574.04
1383,962.27
1335,837.50
1429,757.58
1368,899.48
1477,068.26
1402,779.74
1525,944.45
1437,498.54
1576,437.95
1473,076.63
1628,602.28
1509,535.28
1682,492.73
1546,896.27
1738,166.42
1585,181.95
1795,682.34
1624,415.21
Balance
(qq/ao)
24,635.33
36,059.75
48,124.77
60,858.10
74,288.52
88,445.91
103,361.32
119,067.00
135,596.46
152,984.47
171,267.13