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SASKATCHEWAN

[MARCH 3, 2016]

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 6 AM CST, MARCH 3, 2016


PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK INC.
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,498 Saskatchewan residents by Smart IVR on March
1st, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.53%, 19 times
out of 20. Regional margins of error: Regina: +/-4.23%; Saskatoon: +/-4.5%; rest of
Saskatchewan: +/-4.43%; 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and
gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

SK PARTY LEADS WITH ELECTION IMMINENT


March 3rd, 2016 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nd the Saskatchewan Party leading the
province with an election expected within the week. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error
of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Among all voters he Saskatchewan Party is up 49% from 46% (+3%) while the NDP is now at 28% (-2%).
After trending upward for some weeks the NDP has slipped back to 28%, said Quito Maggi, President of
Mainstreet Research. While they have improved from the beginning of the year the Saskatchewan Party
looks set to easily capture a majority government.
For Saskatchewans NDP the national conversation around Energy East could not have come at a worst
time. Brad Wall has been assertive on the issues and Quebecs recently announced court challenge, he looks
and acts very much like a statesman for the western interests. Though Cam Broten has expressed support
for Energy East, currently the visuals are of Wall at the national table in Vancouver.
We took a look at some issue questions this week around natural resources. When it comes to a potential
agreement with Indigenous peoples in Saskatchewan there is lukewarm support, 42% support such an
agreement compared to 36% who do not. Most of the positive score came from those who somewhat
approve as opposed to those who strongly approve. Another 21% of Saskatchewanians did not have an
opinion on the matter.
Looking at the proposed Energy East pipeline, most in Saskatchewan believe it will be built (46%) and that
the provincial government is doing enough (46%), nished Maggi.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?

55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Oct 6

Jan 4
SK Party

Feb 11
NDP

SASKATCHEWAN PARTY LED BY BRAD WALL


NDP LED BY CAM BROTEN
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY DARRIN LAMOUREUX
GREEN PARTY LED BY VICTOR LAU
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
SASKATCHEWAN PARTY LED BY BRAD WALL
NDP LED BY CAM BROTEN
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY DARRIN LAMOUREUX
GREEN PARTY LED BY VICTOR LAU
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

Feb 23

Liberal

Green

18-34
46%
28%
6%
3%
17%
225

Mar 1
UD

35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female


48%
49%
53% 49% 48%
27%
32%
26% 25%
31%
8%
7%
6%
10%
4%
2%
2%
2%
3%
2%
15%
9%
13% 13%
14%
309
386
578 734
764
Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK
SK
40%
50%
51%
49%
32%
31%
26%
28%
5%
2%
9%
7%
7%
1%
1%
2%
16%
17%
13%
14%
535
474
489
1498

A4

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support? (DECIDED OR LEANING)

60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Oct 6

Jan 4
SK Party

Feb 11
NDP

SASKATCHEWAN PARTY LED BY BRAD WALL


NDP LED BY CAM BROTEN
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY DARRIN LAMOUREUX
GREEN PARTY LED BY VICTOR LAU
SAMPLE

SASKATCHEWAN PARTY LED BY BRAD WALL


NDP LED BY CAM BROTEN
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY DARRIN LAMOUREUX
GREEN PARTY LED BY VICTOR LAU
SAMPLE

Liberal

18-34
52%
34%
10%
3%
197

Feb 23
Green

35-49
55%
32%
10%
4%
287
SK
55%
33%
9%
3%
1373

Mar 1
UD

50-64
53%
35%
9%
2%
357

65+ Male Female


60% 55%
54%
29% 30% 36%
8%
12%
7%
3%
3%
3%
532 692
681

Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK


47%
56%
57%
37%
37%
30%
8%
6%
11%
8%
2%
2%
484
437
452

A5

And which party are you leaning towards voting for?

14%

15%

55%

12%

4%

SK Party

NDP

Liberal

Green

UD

A6

And, do you approve or disapprove of Saskatchewan introducing revenue sharing


with indigenous people in Saskatchewan, also known as rst nations or aboriginal peoples?

21%

43%

36%

Approve

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

Disapprove

18-34
15%
19%
16%
25%
24%

Not Sure

35-49
17%
28%
18%
17%
21%
SK
16%
27%
16%
20%
21%

50-64
16%
31%
18%
17%
19%

65+ Male Female


16% 15%
17%
34% 27%
27%
13% 18%
15%
19% 22%
18%
18% 18%
23%

Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK


16%
15%
16%
29%
23%
28%
16%
15%
17%
17%
24%
19%
22%
23%
20%

A7

Regardless of your approval or disapproval, do you think the Energy East Pipeline will be built or not?

34%

46%

20%

Approve

YES
NO
NOT SURE

YES
NO
NOT SURE

Disapprove

Not Sure

18-34
49%
23%
28%

35-49
47%
21%
32%

SK
46%
20%
34%

50-64
42%
17%
41%

65+ Male Female


45% 48% 44%
18% 21%
19%
37% 31%
37%

Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK


45%
48%
45%
21%
19%
21%
34%
31%
36%

A8

Is the provincial government doing enough to get new pipelines approved?

40%
46% %

15%

Approve

YES
NO
NOT SURE

YES
NO
NOT SURE

Disapprove

Not Sure

18-34
56%
11%
33%

35-49
41%
16%
42%

SK
46%
15%
40%

50-64
39%
15%
45%

65+ Male Female


44% 44% 47%
18% 16%
14%
38% 40% 39%

Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK


43%
57%
42%
13%
15%
15%
42%
30%
43%

A9

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?
Saskatchewan Party led by Brad Wall
NDP led by Cam Broten
Green Party led by Victor Lau
Liberal Party led by Darrin Lamoureux
Undecided
And which Party are you leaning towards voting for?
Saskatchewan Party led by Brad Wall
NDP led by Cam Broten
Green Party led by Victor Lau
Liberal Party led by Darrin Lamoureux
Undecided
And, do you approve or disapprove of Saskatchewan introducing revenue sharing with indigenous
people in Saskatchewan, also known as rst nations or aboriginal peoples?
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Not Sure
Regardless of your approval or disapproval, do you think the Energy East Pipeline will be built or not?
Yes
No
Not Sure
Is the provincial government doing enough to get new pipelines approved?
Yes
No
Not Sure

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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