SASKATCHEWAN

[MARCH 10, 2016]

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 6 AM CST, MARCH 10, 2016

PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK INC.
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,423 Saskatchewan residents by Smart IVR on March
8th, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.6%, 19 times
out of 20. Regional margins of error: Regina: +/-4.37%; Saskatoon: +/-4.56%; rest of
Saskatchewan: +/-4.56%; 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and
gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

NDP GAINS BUT SK PARTY STILL HAS WIDE LEAD

March 10th, 2016 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nd the Saskatchewan Party continues
to lead the NDP though the margin has tightened. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of
+/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
Among all voters the Saskatchewan Party is down to 47% from 49% (-2%) while the NDP is now at 33%
(+5%).
This type of volatility is to be expected as Saskatchewanians begin tuning into the election campaign said
Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. The test for the NDP will be to see if they can hold onto this
support. Most of the gains are coming from Regina, where the NDP and Saskatchewan Party are now tied
at 39%. In late February we saw the race tighten considerably in Saskatoon only to see the NDPs support
slip in the weeks that follow, so we will keep an eye on Regina in the weeks to come to see.
Overall the province looks more or less as it has for the past few weeks. The Saskatchewan Party holds a
12% lead in Saskatoon and a daunting 19% lead in the rural areas of the province. Right now all signs point
to a majority Saskatchewan Party government.
Most Saskatchewanians think the Saskatchewan Party would do a better job than the NDP when it comes
to managing Saskatchewans aging population, 42% to 33%. Most voters are not sure about placing
themselves or a loved one in a publicly funded seniors home with a whopping 69% undecided. Its
interesting to note however that support slides as respondents grow older. 28% of Saskatchewanians 18-34
say they would place a parent in a publicly funded seniors home compared to 18% among those over 65
who would consider placing themselves there.
Finally, Saskatchewanians are split on the privatization of 40 liquor stores. Most are unsure about the
matter (38%) with 33% in favour and 29% opposed, nished Maggi.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?

55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Oct 6

Jan 4
SK Party

Feb 11
NDP

SASKATCHEWAN PARTY LED BY BRAD WALL

NDP LED BY CAM BROTEN
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY DARRIN LAMOUREUX
GREEN PARTY LED BY VICTOR LAU
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
SASKATCHEWAN PARTY LED BY BRAD WALL
NDP LED BY CAM BROTEN
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY DARRIN LAMOUREUX
GREEN PARTY LED BY VICTOR LAU
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

Feb 23
Liberal

Mar 1
Green

18-34
45%
33%
5%
2%
14%
241

Mar 8

UD

35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

47%
47%
49% 48% 46%
30%
37%
32% 30% 36%
7%
6%
5%
8%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
14%
9%
12% 12%
12%
316
395
584
711
825
Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK
SK
39%
48%
49%
47%
39%
36%
30%
33%
4%
1%
8%
6%
6%
1%
1%
2%
13%
14%
11%
12%
545
495
496
1536

A4

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support? (DECIDED OR LEANING)

60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Oct 6

Jan 4
SK Party

Feb 11
NDP

SASKATCHEWAN PARTY LED BY BRAD WALL

NDP LED BY CAM BROTEN
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY DARRIN LAMOUREUX
GREEN PARTY LED BY VICTOR LAU

SASKATCHEWAN PARTY LED BY BRAD WALL

NDP LED BY CAM BROTEN
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY DARRIN LAMOUREUX
GREEN PARTY LED BY VICTOR LAU

Feb 23
Liberal

18-34
51%
38%
8%
3%

Mar 1
Green

35-49
52%
34%
9%
4%

SK
51%
37%
8%
3%

Mar 8

UD

50-64
50%
39%
8%
3%

65+ Male Female

54% 52%
51%
37% 34% 40%
7%
11%
6%
2%
4%
3%

Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK

44%
53%
53%
44%
41%
33%
6%
3%
11%
6%
3%
3%

A5

And which party are you leaning towards voting for? (UNDECIDED ONLY)

8%

13%

55%
17%

7%

SK Party

NDP

Liberal

Green

UD

A6

And, which party do you think will be best prepared to manage Saskatchewan's rapidly aging population?

20%

42%

2%
3%

33%

SK Party

NDP

SASKATCHEWAN PARTY LED BY BRAD WALL

NDP LED BY CAM BROTEN
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY DARRIN LAMOUREUX
GREEN PARTY LED BY VICTOR LAU
UNDECIDED

SASKATCHEWAN PARTY LED BY BRAD WALL

NDP LED BY CAM BROTEN
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY DARRIN LAMOUREUX
GREEN PARTY LED BY VICTOR LAU
UNDECIDED

Liberal

18-34
43%
32%
3%
2%
19%

Green

35-49
41%
30%
4%
3%
22%
SK
42%
33%
3%
2%
20%

UD

50-64
41%
37%
3%
2%
17%

65+ Male Female

43% 43%
41%
31% 31%
34%
2%
4%
2%
1%
2%
3%
22% 20% 20%

Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK

36%
45%
43%
36%
35%
31%
2%
2%
4%
5%
1%
2%
21%
17%
21%

A7

Are you willing to put yourself or a parent in a publicly funded seniors home?

22%

8%

69%

Yes

YES
NO
NOT SURE
YES
NO
NOT SURE

No

Not Sure

18-34
28%
8%
64%

35-49
21%
9%
70%

SK
22%
8%
69%

50-64
20%
8%
72%

65+
18%
8%
74%

Male Female
24%
21%
10%
7%
66%
72%

Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK

18%
28%
22%
9%
6%
10%
73%
67%
69%

A8

The Saskatchewan Party plans to privatize 40 government owned liquor stores. Do you approve or disapprove
of this plan?

33%
38%

29%

Approve

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

Disapprove

18-34
12%
15%
14%
20%
39%

Not Sure

35-49
13%
22%
15%
14%
36%
SK
12%
21%
13%
16%
38%

50-64
12%
24%
12%
15%
37%

65+ Male Female

12% 10%
14%
25% 21%
21%
9%
14%
12%
14% 18%
14%
40% 37%
39%

Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK

12%
12%
13%
22%
17%
22%
11%
13%
14%
14%
20%
15%
42%
38%
37%

A9

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?
Saskatchewan Party led by Brad Wall
NDP led by Cam Broten
Liberal Party led by Darrin Lamoureux
Green Party led by Victor Lau
Undecided
And which Party are you leaning towards voting for?
Saskatchewan Party led by Brad Wall
NDP led by Cam Broten
Liberal Party led by Darrin Lamoureux
Green Party led by Victor Lau
Undecided
And, which party do you think will be best prepared to
manage Saskatchewans rapidly aging population?
Saskatchewan Party led by Brad Wall
NDP led by Cam Broten
Liberal Party led by Darrin Lamoureux
Green Party led by Victor Lau
Undecided
Are you willing to put yourself or a parent in a publicly funded seniors home?
Yes
No
Not Sure
The Saskatchewan Party plans to privatize 40 government owned liquor stores.
Do you approve or disapprove of this plan?
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Not Sure

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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