MANITOBA

[MARCH 14, 2016]

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 6 AM CST, MARCH 14, 2016

PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK INC.
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,764 Manitoba residents by Smart IVR on March 12th,
2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.33%, 19 times
out of 20. Regional margins of error: Winnipeg: +/-3.34%; Rest of Manitoba: +/-3.26%; ; 19
times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2011
Canadian Census.

A2

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected

by copyright. The information and/or data may only
be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper
credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

DEAD HEAT IN WINNIPEG

March 14, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds a dead heat in Winnipeg between the
Progressive Conservatives and NDP. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.33%, 19
times out of 20.
The Manitoba election has been largely unremarkable with the Manitoba PCs dominating in support in
polls dating back to late 2015. This signals the rst real chink in the armour of Brian Pallister and the PCs
with support dropping drastically in seat rich Winnipeg, said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet
Research. A virtual tie in support among voters in Winnipeg exists between the NDP at 34% and the PCs
at 32% with a strong 26% for the Manitoba Liberals. Among all voters there are now more undecided voters
than before. Combined with the drop in PC support it's now looking like a real race.
Among Decided and Leaning Voters: PCs 43% (-7%), NDP 27% (+6%), Liberals 24% (+1%), Greens 7% (+1%)
The Manitoba Liberals remained at but continued to show strong signs of growth potential among
leaning undecided voters despite a bad news week. Meanwhile, the NDP who were almost written o two
months ago have shown signs of a resurgence in support, although it is concentrated in Winnipeg. With
undecided voters increasing at this stage, it could signal a shift in this campaign to a more competitive one
than what was expected just a few weeks ago, continued Maggi.
The danger for the NDP is that 47% of Manitobans want their Premier to have honesty and integrity. Only
9% of voters who see this as a key attribute for Premier are currently voting for the NDP. The top issue in
Manitoba is taxes (26%), another issue the NDP is weak on (only 4% of voters for whom taxes is the top
issue plan to vote for the NDP). This is a very challenging climate.
Ultimately we will want to see whether this trend continues. We will be releasing polling about once per
week in Manitoba so we will have numerous opportunities to conrm and track further movement, he
nished.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

If the provincial by election

were held today,which candidate
would you support?

45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan 7

Jan 27

NDP

PC

Feb 11

Liberal

Feb 20

Green

Mar 12

Undecided

A4

If the provincial by election

were held today,which candidate
would you support?

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

NDP

20%

15%

21%

19%

19%

19%

PC

22%

38%

39%

46%

38%

32%

Liberal

15%

19%

16%

14%

18%

15%

Green

10%

3%

2%

2%

5%

5%

PC
Undecided

33%

25%

22%

19%

22%

30%

Sample

213

372

534

645

780

984

Manitoba

Winnipeg

Rest of MB

NDP

19%

23%

12%

PC

35%

25%

52%

Liberal

16%

17%

14%

Green

5%

6%

3%

Undecided

26%

29%

19%

Sample

1764

862

902

A5

And which Party are you

leaning towards voting for?
[Undecided Only]

17%

10%
51%

17%

5%

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

Undecided

A6

If the provincial by election

were held today,which candidate
would you support?

Mar 12 Feb 20 Feb 11 Jan 27 Jan 7

DECIDED & LEANING

23%

44%

20%

52%

21%

51%

21%

50%

27%

27%

20

20%

9%

20%

7%

23%
43%

10

6%

30

6%

24%
40

50

60

70

7%
80

90

100

Mar 12 Feb 20 Feb 11 Jan 27 Jan 7

DECIDED ONLY

23%

44%

20%

27%

52%

21%

19%

52%

22%

20

30

7%

22%

47%
10

9%

20%

51%

25%

6%

6%

22%
40

50

60

70

80

6%
90

100

A7

If the provincial by election

were held today,which candidate
would you support?
[DECIDED AND LEANING]

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

NDP

34%

19%

27%

24%

23%

30%

PC

27%

47%

49%

54%

46%

40%

Liberal

22%

29%

23%

19%

25%

22%

Green

17%

4%

2%

3%

6%

8%

PC
Sample

197

328

469

555

701

848

Manitoba

Winnipeg

Rest of MB

NDP

27%

34%

15%

PC

43%

32%

62%

Liberal

24%

26%

19%

Green

7%

8%

5%

1549

742

807

Sample

A8

And, which of these is the most

important issue in deciding your vote
in the provincial by election?

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

Economy

20%

20%

19%

15%

20%

17%

Taxes

21%

30%

30%

25%

33%

20%

Education

16%

12%

10%

8%

11%

13%

Healthcare

12%

17%

15%

23%

10%

22%

Ethics

10%

2%

4%

4%

7%

4%

Environment

5%

3%

4%

6%

3%

5%

Something Else

12%

4%

4%

6%

8%

5%

Not Sure

5%

12%

14%

13%

8%

13%

Manitoba

Winnipeg

Rest of MB

Economy

19%

20%

16%

Taxes

26%

24%

31%

Education

12%

12%

11%

Healthcare

16%

16%

18%

Ethics

5%

6%

4%

Environment

4%

5%

4%

Something Else

7%

8%

5%

Not Sure

11%

11%

11%

A9

What is the most important leadership

traits for a Premier to have?

A: A Premier should share your values

B: A Premier should care about people like you
C: A Premier should think like you on the issues
D: A Premier should have honesty and integrity

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

14%

8%

6%

10%

6%

13%

6%

14%

13%

10%

10%

11%

8%

10%

9%

6%

10%

7%

30%

46%

59%

56%

46%

47%

Other*

24%

8%

4%

6%

12%

11%

Not Sure

19%

15%

9%

12%

16%

12%

Manitoba

Winnipeg

Rest of MB

10%

10%

9%

11%

11%

10%

8%

8%

9%

47%

44%

51%

Other*

11%

12%

10%

Not Sure

14%

16%

11%

A10

LIKELYHOOD TO VOTE
vs.
PARTY SUPPORT

19% of Voters Certain to Vote are voting NDP

Certain

19%

Likely

12%

Might

23%

Unlikely

16%

10

38%

17%

31%

12%
7% 15%

24%
20

40

44%

54%
16%

30

5% 21%

43%

50

60

70

80

90

Certain

Likely

Might

NDP

19%

12%

23%

16%

PC

38%

31%

7%

24%

Liberal

17%

12%

15%

16%

Green

5%

1%

1%

1%

Undecided

21%

44%

54%

43%

100

Unlikely

A11

TOP ISSUE
vs.
PARTY SUPPORT

16% of Voters whose Top Issue is Healthcare are voting NDP

Economy

31%

Education

30%

Healthcare

16%

Taxes
0

24%

12%

31%

9%

34%

29%

17%

56%
10

31%

9%

25%

17%
20

30

40

50

60

70

17%
80

90

100

Economy

Education

Healthcare

NDP

31%

30%

16%

4%

PC

24%

31%

34%

56%

Liberal

12%

9%

17%

17%

Green

1%

3%

9%

5%

31%

29%

25%

17%

Undecided

Taxes

A12

LEADERSHIP TRAITS OF A PREMIER

VS
PARTY SUPPORT

46%

37%

21%

9%

10%

A: A Premier should share your values

B: A Premier should care about people like you
C: A Premier should think like you on the issues
D: A Premier should have honesty and integrity
E: Other; F: Not Sure

26%

35%

6% 7%

27%

24%

43%
18%

24%

10

10%

20

13%

16%

45%

10%

23%

30

40

6%

5% 15%
26%

53%
9%
50

60

32%
70

80

90

100

NDP

46%

37%

21%

9%

10%

26%

PC

35%

27%

43%

45%

24%

10%

Liberal

6%

24%

16%

18%

3%

23%

Green

7%

0%

5%

3%

10%

9%

Undecided

6%

13%

15%

26%

53%

32%

A13

SCRIPT

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?
The NDP led by Greg Selinger
The Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister
The Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari
TheGreen Party led James Beddome
Undecided
And which Party are you leaning towards voting for?
The NDP led by Greg Selinger
The Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister
The Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari
TheGreen Party led James Beddome
Undecided
And, which of these is the most important issue in deciding your vote in the provincial election? Is it,
Jobs and the Economy, Taxes and Government Finances, Education and Schools, Health Care,
Infrastructure, the Environment or Something Else?
Jobs and the Economy
Taxes and Government Finances
Education and Schools
Health Care
Ethics within Government
Environment
Infrastructure
Something Else
Not sure
What is the most important leadership traits for a Premier to have?
A Premier should share your values
A Premier should care about people like you
A Premier should think like you on the issues
A Premier should have honesty and integrity
Something Else
Undecided

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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