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SASKATCHEWAN

[MARCH 17, 2016]

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 5 AM CST, MARCH 17, 2016
PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK INC.
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,577 Saskatchewan residents by Smart IVR™ on March
15th, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.47%, 19
times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Regina: +/-4.14%; Saskatoon: +/-4.33%; rest of
Saskatchewan: +/-4.35%; 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and
gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.

70% SAY CLEAN SOCIAL MEDIA HISTORY IMPORTANT
March 17th, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll find the Saskatchewan Party leading the
province - and that Saskatchewanians want candidates with good social media histories. The
Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.47%, 19 times out of 20.
Among all voters he Saskatchewan Party is up 49% from 47% (+2%) while the NDP is now at 31% (-2%).
“We’ve seen the NDP ticking up and then ticking down,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet
Research. “They are holding on to some of their gains but they are not yet gaining enough ground to
compete with Brad Wall’s Saskatchewan Party.”
“We’ve seen a lot of social media controversies not just in Saskatchewan but also in neighbouring Manitoba.
We’re seeing very similar numbers for both provinces with voters saying they are less likely to vote for
candidates with offensive social media posts - and that they consider the matter either somewhat or very
important. These negative stories for Cam Broten early in the campaign aren’t helpful. Instead of delivering
his campaign message he’s had to spend valuable time apologizing and finding new candidates. Wall’s
opposition research team clearly did their work.
”We tested issue questions regarding P3 partnerships for schools and the Carbon Tax. While there is strong
support for P3 schools, 64% are opposed to a carbon tax for the province’s biggest emitters. With Brad
Wall forcefully arguing against a Carbon Tax in SK these numbers should not come as a surprise,” he
finished.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?

55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Oct 6

Jan 4

SK Party

Feb 11

Feb 23

NDP

SASKATCHEWAN PARTY LED BY BRAD WALL
NDP LED BY CAM BROTEN
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY DARRIN LAMOUREUX
GREEN PARTY LED BY VICTOR LAU
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
SASKATCHEWAN PARTY LED BY BRAD WALL
NDP LED BY CAM BROTEN
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY DARRIN LAMOUREUX
GREEN PARTY LED BY VICTOR LAU
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

Mar 1

Liberal
18-34
48%
32%
5%
2%
14%
249

Mar 8

Green

Mar 16

UD

35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female
48%
50%
50% 49% 48%
29%
34%
31% 28%
34%
7%
5%
5%
7%
4%
2%
2%
2%
3%
2%
14%
9%
12% 12%
12%
321
407
600 725
852
Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK
SK
42%
50%
50%
49%
35%
34%
29%
31%
4%
1%
8%
5%
6%
1%
2%
2%
12%
14%
11%
12%
558
512
507
1577

A4

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support? (DECIDED OR LEANING)

60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Oct 6

Jan 4

Feb 11

SK Party

Feb 23

NDP

SASKATCHEWAN PARTY LED BY BRAD WALL
NDP LED BY CAM BROTEN
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY DARRIN LAMOUREUX
GREEN PARTY LED BY VICTOR LAU
SAMPLE

SASKATCHEWAN PARTY LED BY BRAD WALL
NDP LED BY CAM BROTEN
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY DARRIN LAMOUREUX
GREEN PARTY LED BY VICTOR LAU
SAMPLE

Mar 1

Mar 8

Liberal
18-34
53%
36%
8%
3%
227

Green

35-49
54%
33%
10%
4%
301
SK
53%
35%
8%
4%
1468

Mar 16

50-64
53%
36%
8%
3%
381

65+ Male Female
54% 53%
53%
35% 32%
38%
7%
10%
6%
4%
4%
3%
559 658
810

Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK
48%
55%
54%
39%
39%
32%
6%
3%
11%
7%
3%
3%
516
475
477

A5

And which party are you leaning towards voting for? (Undecided Only)

9%

12%

51%

18%

9%

SK Party

NDP

Liberal

Green

UD

A6

The Saskatchewan Party Government is building 18 schools using a public-private partnership process also
known as P3. Do you agree or disagree with the government using public-private partnerships to build more
schools in the future?

16%

12%

72%

Approve

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

Disapprove

18-34
32%
37%
5%
8%
18%

Not Sure

35-49
34%
38%
7%
6%
15%
SK
34%
38%
6%
6%
16%

50-64
34%
40%
6%
5%
15%

65+
37%
36%
3%
5%
19%

Male Female
35%
33%
35% 40%
6%
5%
7%
6%
17%
16%

Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK
33%
30%
36%
38%
42%
36%
6%
5%
6%
4%
8%
6%
19%
16%
16%

A7

And do you approve or disapprove of a tax on carbon emissions for the province’s biggest emitters?

5%

31%

64%

Approve

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

Disapprove

18-34
11%
19%
13%
52%
6%

Not Sure

35-49
19%
15%
17%
45%
4%
SK
15%
16%
16%
48%
5%

50-64
18%
15%
17%
46%
4%

65+ Male Female
13% 15%
16%
15% 15%
17%
17% 15%
16%
50% 51%
46%
4%
4%
6%

Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK
23%
20%
11%
21%
23%
12%
17%
19%
14%
33%
31%
61%
6%
7%
3%

A8

If a candidate made offensive remarks on social media, how would it affect your vote?

15%

23%
59%

3%

Less Likely

More Likely

LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR CANDIDATE
MORE LIKELY TO VOTE FOR CANDIDATE
NO EFFECT ON MY VOTE
NOT SURE
LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR CANDIDATE
MORE LIKELY TO VOTE FOR CANDIDATE
NO EFFECT ON MY VOTE
NOT SURE

No Effect

18-34
69%
0%
17%
14%

Not Sure

35-49
56%
6%
22%
17%
SK
59%
3%
23%
15%

50-64
59%
2%
30%
9%

65+ Male Female
49% 61%
58%
4%
3%
3%
26% 21%
26%
21% 15%
14%

Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK
60%
60%
59%
2%
1%
4%
21%
22%
25%
16%
16%
13%

A9

And how important is it to you that a candidate not have said embarrassing or offensive remarks on social
media?
6%
6%

17%
46%

24%

Very Important

Somewhat Important
Not At All Important

VERY IMPORTANT
SOMEWHAT IMPORTANT
NOT TOO IMPORTANT
NOT AT ALL IMPORTANT
NOT SURE

VERY IMPORTANT
SOMEWHAT IMPORTANT
NOT TOO IMPORTANT
NOT AT ALL IMPORTANT
NOT SURE

18-34
50%
22%
18%
5%
5%

Not Too Important

Not Sure

35-49
44%
26%
13%
11%
6%
SK
46%
24%
17%
6%
6%

50-64
43%
29%
21%
3%
4%

65+ Male Female
47% 48% 44%
20% 25%
24%
17% 17%
18%
5%
5%
7%
11%
6%
6%

Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK
43%
47%
47%
27%
22%
24%
16%
18%
18%
5%
5%
7%
9%
8%
4%

A10

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?
Saskatchewan Party led by Brad Wall
NDP led by Cam Broten
Green Party led by Victor Lau
Liberal Party led by Darrin Lamoureux
Undecided
And which Party are you leaning towards voting for?
Saskatchewan Party led by Brad Wall
NDP led by Cam Broten
Green Party led by Victor Lau
Liberal Party led by Darrin Lamoureux
Undecided
The Saskatchewan Party Government is building 18 schools using a public-private partnership
process also known as P3. Do you agree or disagree with the government using public-private
partnerships to build more schools in the future?
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Not Sure
And do you approve or disapprove of a tax on carbon emissions for the province’s biggest emitters?
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Not Sure

A11

If a candidate made offensive remarks on social media, how would it affect your vote?
It would make me less likely to vote for the candidate
It would make me more likely to vote for the candidate
It would have no effect on my vote
Not sure
And how important is it to you that a candidate not have said embarrassing or offensive remarks
on social media?
Very Important
Somewhat Important
Not too important
Not at all important
Not Sure

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

“I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it’s an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in defiance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign.” - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 132−2255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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