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1380-3611/99/0501-0001$15.00
Swets & Zeitlinger
University of Memphis
ABSTRACT
This study provides an investigation of relationships among different types of errors
occurring during probability problem-solving. Fifty non-mathematically sophisticated graduate student subjects enrolled in an introductory probability and statistics course were
asked to solve a set of probability problems, and their attempts at solution were analyzed
for presence and type of errors. The errors contained within these solutions were categorized according to a coding scheme which identifies 110 specific kinds of errors in four
categories: text comprehension errors, conceptual errors, procedural errors, and arithmetic/computation errors. Relationships among types of errors included in each category
were investigated using hierarchical clustering via additive trees. Implications of these
relationships for the teaching and learning of probability problem-solving are discussed.
INTRODUCTION
Diagnostic teaching involves a qualitative analysis of students errors followed by adaptive instruction to eliminate these errors. Such is the nature
of teaching and learning: instruction is motivated in part by attempts to
correct flawed student knowledge. However, accurately describing a students current knowledge base can be extremely difficult, particularly in
complex domains. Consider the case of probability problem-solving, which
The author would like to thank John Nickey and Garry Rabin for their assistance with the
reliability assessment. A portion of this work was based on a doctoral dissertation submitted to the faculty at Teachers College, Columbia University. James E. Corter directed that
work.
Correspondence: Dr. Ann A. OConnell, Educational Psychology and Research, College
of Education, Room 100, University of Memphis, Memphis, TN 38152, USA. Tel.: (901)
678-3936. Fax: (901) 678-5114. E-mail: oconnell.ann@coe.memphis.edu.
Manuscript submitted: May, 1997
Accepted for publication: February, 1998
requires a combination of procedural, conceptual, and real-world knowledge. Extensive research has documented the existence of cognitive biases
in peoples reasoning about probability and probabilistic events (Fischbein & Schnarch, 1997; Konold, 1989; Konold, Pollatsek, Well, Lohmeier, & Lipson, 1993; Tversky & Kahneman, 1974, 1983), as well as some of
the conceptual difficulties students have when learning elementary probability (Garfield & Ahlgren, 1988; Hansen, McCann, & Myers, 1985;
Shaughnessy, 1992). Consequently, there appears to be no easy approach
to assessing students misconceptions and encouraging them to apply probabilistic principles appropriately.
Problems involving probability or probabilistic reasoning, such as those
typically encountered by college students in education, psychology, biology, and business, clearly demand an appreciation for probability concepts
and principles (Derry, Levin, & Schauble, 1995; Hansen et al., 1985;
Hong & ONeil, 1992; Shaughnessy, 1992). Successful solution of these
kinds of problems also requires an understanding of the terminology and
procedures (i.e., equations, formulas, rules and their interrelationships)
generally used to represent these concepts. Studies in other disciplines
where formal procedures are needed during problem-solving, such as in
physics, algebra, or arithmetic, have often approached the analysis of problem-solving by investigating the relationship between problem presentation and the application of formulas, or through comprehensive analysis of
errors made during post-instruction solution attempts (Hiebert & Carpenter, 1992; Hinsley, Hayes, & Simon, 1977; Kintsch & Greeno, 1985; Larkin, McDermott, Simon, & Simon, 1980; Matz, 1982; VanLehn, 1982).
The focus of this article is on the description and analysis of errors made
during problem-solving in probability. The study seeks to clarify the nature of the relationships occurring among different kinds of errors in order
to provide some guidelines for improving instruction and learning in this
domain.
Several studies in subject areas such as algebra (Matz, 1982; Sleeman,
1982), physics (Chi, Feltovich, & Glaser, 1981), and subtraction (Brown
& Burton, 1978; Brown & VanLehn, 1980; VanLehn, 1982) have shown
that different students often exhibit strikingly similar errors or misconceptions as they are learning a new skill. Similarities have also been found in
the domain of probability problem-solving, where many errors and misconceptions are repeatedly observed across students and problems
(OConnell, 1993; OConnell & Corter, 1993). The importance of such
studies is clear, since, research on students errors makes it possible to
identify specific deficits in the way students knowledge is connected so
that instruction can be designed to address the specific connections stu-
dents lack or to point out why certain connections are inappropriate (Hiebert & Carpenter, 1992, p. 89). We know that students have difficulty
with problems involving probability; one way to help them overcome
these difficulties is by better understanding the nature of errors they are
making when solving typical problems. Such information is important for
diagnosis of a students flawed understanding, as well as for developing
adaptive individualized instruction.
Research has shown that most of the information about common errors
occurring within a domain can be obtained through the use of verbal or
written protocols of student work, or through the use of diagnostic tests
designed to elicit predicted errors (Brown & Burton, 1978; Ginsburg,
Kossan, Schwartz, & Swanson, 1983). However, identifying specific errors is only part of the process in working towards adaptive instruction for
improved learning. Establishing the role of relationships among these observable errors is also critical for designing appropriate and successful
instructional strategies.
Just as children sometimes learn only partial procedures when being
taught skills such as subtraction (Brown & Burton, 1978; Brown & VanLehn, 1980; VanLehn, 1990), many college students seem to grasp only a
partial understanding of fundamental concepts and procedures in probability. VanLehns (1990) study of subtraction concerned childrens acquisition of procedural skills and the development of procedural bugs. Earlier, he defined a bug as a slight modification or perturbation of a correct
procedure (VanLehn, 1982). In terms of investigating procedural skill,
subtraction was a good domain for VanLehn to choose for his research in
part because of the fact that at the age at which subtraction is taught,
children generally have no preconceived notions about the processes of
subtraction. In contrast, studies have shown that children, as well as adults,
do develop conceptions about probability and chance prior to classroom
instruction (Fischbein & Schnarch, 1997; Kahneman, Slovic, & Tversky,
1982; Piaget & Inhelder, 1975; Tversky & Kahneman, 1974). The existence of faulty preconceptions or learned misconceptions regarding probability serves to make the study of the probability problem-solving process
much more interesting than that of a simple procedural skill.
The work presented here is a critical study of how students solve probability problems typically found in many graduate level introductory statistics textbooks aimed at students in social or behavioral sciences. The study
provides an investigation into the nature of the relationships among different types of text comprehension, procedural, conceptual and arithmetic
errors. This paper also describes the error analysis methodology used to
identify and code the errors present in post-instruction solutions to proba-
METHOD
Subjects and Task
Fifty graduate students of education and psychology, who were enrolled in
a one semester course in probability and statistics at a large urban university in New York City served as subjects for this study. These subjects are
part of a larger study on probability problem-solving. At the completion of
the probability section of the course, the students were assigned twelve
probability problems, typical of those found in introductory texts on probability and statistics. The solutions to these problems were collected one
week after distribution. Students were requested to show all of their work
during solution to a problem.
The collection of problems assigned covered topics including equally
likely, non-equally likely, mutually exclusive, independent and conditional events, and assessing their associated probabilities. Examples of two of
the twelve problems can be found below during the discussion of the
coding scheme. Several of the problems, such as the second example
below, contained sequential questions, amounting to a total of 50 individual items over all 12 problems. Each of the solutions obtained for these 50
items was inspected for errors, and the type of error made on each question
was coded according to the scheme described in the following paragraphs.
Development of Error Coding Scheme
The error coding scheme was developed through analysis of the written
work of 180 students solving 93 different probability problems. First,
broad categories corresponding to text comprehension errors (T), conceptual errors (C), procedural errors (P), and arithmetic errors (A) were created. Table 1 provides a brief description of the kinds of errors represented
by these categories. In general, errors arising from deficiencies in problem
understanding are classified as text comprehension errors. Conceptual errors refer to observed difficulties with probability concepts or from working within probabilistic systems. Procedural errors are those arising from
faulty application of formulas or rules. The arithmetic errors category is
used to identify calculation mistakes.
Category
Description
Text Comprehension
Conceptual
Procedural
Arithmetic
These are errors involving simple miscalculations, copy mistakes such as transposing digits, incorrect cancellation of terms
from numerator and denominator of an expression, etc.
Table 2. Examples of Type and Specific Errors Codes Used for the Error Analysis.
Type
Specific Error
C8
Description
Misconceptions involving mutually exclusive events.
C8.1
Incorrect definition of mutually exclusive events, or the inability to distinguish between mutually exclusive vs. non-mutually
exclusive events.
C8.2
C8.3
C8.4
P5
Procedural errors involving mutually exclusive events or formulas for mutually exclusive events.
P5.1
P5.2
Determining the probability of the union of two events by summing the probabilities of the simple events, without verifying if
the simple events are mutually exclusive.
Type of Error
53
13
0
16
2
1
42
11
0
2
11
0
0
7
63
17
4
5
1
9
19
11
96
27
6
45
34
11
13
138
110
271
54
34
607
38.4
9.4
0.0
11.6
1.4
0.7
30.4
7.8
0.0
1.8
10.0
0.0
0.0
6.4
57.3
15.5
3.6
4.5
0.1
3.3
7.0
4.1
35.4
10.0
2.2
16.6
12.5
4.1
4.8
22.7
18.1
44.7
9.0
5.6
100%
Note. n = 50 students.
contained errors, and in this subset 84% agreement as to the type of error
made was reached by the two raters.
Error Coding Scheme Guidelines
The present study consisted of coding the work of 50 students solving
twelve probability problems, using the above coding scheme. One difficulty with this type of qualitative analysis is that when a problem consists
of several different parts, an error near the beginning often affects the
solution to subsequent parts of the same problem. For consistency, the
following guidelines were adhered to during the error analysis:
(1) If a student made an arithmetic error in one part of the problem which
affected the solution to any of the remaining parts, the arithmetic error
was coded only once. If, however, the student made an error in text
comprehension or a procedural or conceptual error which affected the
correct solution to subsequent parts, the error was coded each time it
affected the solution. This approach is justified because such errors of
understanding carry over from problem to problem in a manner that
is vastly different from a simple calculation or arithmetic error.
(2) Often, one students solution process to a single question or part of a
question contained several different errors. All of the observed errors
for a solution process were coded according to the coding scheme
given in Table 3.
(3) If a student attempted the problem in more than one way, and neither
attempt leads to an accurate solution, only the first solution attempt
was coded. This guideline was followed since we were interested in
assessing the relationships among errors made during initial attempts
to solve a particular problem.
Variables
In order to investigate possible relationships among observed errors, a
frequency score corresponding to each error type was calculated for all 50
subjects in this study. Using this technique, the tendency for a student to
make a particular type of error could be readily discerned. Table 3 provides the type and frequency of observed errors for this sample of 50
subjects. Three of the 50 students made no errors on any of the 12 problems. Thus, the relationships among different kinds of errors was assessed
using the frequencies of error types for the remaining 47 students.
Analysis
Hierarchical clustering was used to help identify a natural structure to the
set of text comprehension, conceptual, procedural and arithmetic errors.
10
Subject 43:
student does not have a clear understanding of the antecedents for events
to be considered equally likely. Assuming that events are equally likely
without appropriate justification is the second most common error occurring in this group of 50 students (see Table 3). This assumption makes
many kinds of probability problems computationally easier to solve, therefore, students who have difficulty working with formulas or understanding
the process involved in random selection (of single outcomes or compound outcomes) may also feel comfortable relying on this assumption
simply to reduce the complexity of the solution process.
The next example illustrates the use of the coding scheme in a more
complex probability problem.
Example 2. Assume that there are equal numbers of males and females
at a school. The probability is 1/5 that a male student and 1/20 that a
female student will be taking a science course. What is the probability
that (a) a randomly selected student will be a male science student, (b)
a randomly selected student will be a science student, (c) a student is a
science student given that she is female. (d) Are gender and science
registration independent?
This particular problem consisted of four different questions; accordingly,
each question was inspected for errors. For the solution depicted in Figure
2, we see that the first difficulty encountered by this student is in text
11
Subject 32:
comprehension. The phrase the probability is 1/5 that a male student ...
will be taking a science course was interpreted as a conjunction (P(male
and science) instead of as a conditional probability statement (P(science |
male). This miscomprehension, coupled with the students reliance on the
and means multiply mal-rule (i.e., using P(A B) = P(A) * P(B), without justifying whether or not independence holds) leads to erroneous solutions during many aspects of the problem. Perhaps with better training in
translation, the student may have found this problem easier to solve. The
errors coded for each of the four questions are as follows:
(a) T1: Incorrect assignment of the probabilities or numerical values given in the problem. In this example, the given conditional probability
was represented as a joint probability.
(b) P7.3: Ignoring the probabilities of simple events as provided in the
problem (i.e., P(M) = P(F) =.50), while using incorrect substitution of
conditional probability as a joint probability to complete the cells of a
table. The student read the value correctly but from an erroneously
constructed table. Note the probabilities of Male and Female given at
the bottom of the table.
(c) P7.2: Incorrect determination of intersection of events or conditional
probability when reading data from a table. Here, the student used the
joint probability as presented in her table to represent P(S | F). Al-
12
though the answer to this problem, when done correctly, is .05, this
answer does not result from the students constructed table.
(d) Several errors are identified in the final question. First, the student is
again using the joint probability for Male and Science as .20, which
should have been interpreted as a conditional probability (T1). The
student then assumes that these two events, male and science are
independent in order to solve for the probability of male (P4.1).
Finally, the probability used for science is again taken from the
erroneously constructed table (P7.3). Due to the students assumption
of independence of events, her solution to this question would of course
lead her to erroneously conclude that the two events are, in fact, independent.
RESULTS
Error Analysis
Table 3 provides a description of each error type, and the frequency with
which each of the variables (error types) was observed for this sample of
students. Arithmetic errors were combined as one type of error.
As can be seen from Table 3, the most common errors overall were
procedural in nature, followed by errors in text comprehension. It should
be noted that procedural difficulties are often preceded by difficulties in
text comprehension, as seen in the second example above. To investigate
the nature of this and other relationships among the variables, the data
were submitted to two clustering analyses with results as presented below.
Hierarchical Clustering using Additive Trees
Relationships among the types of errors found in this sample of 47 students were assessed through hierarchical clustering using additive trees.
Two separate analyses were conducted. Relationships among the conceptual and procedural errors were investigated first, followed by an assessment of relationships among errors in all four categories. Correlations
among the variables (error types) served as the measure of proximity for
the cluster analyses. For stability of solution, the additive trees were fit for
the set of error types with a frequency greater than or equal to four for each
analysis.
Conceptual/Procedural Relationships
The data for this analysis consisted of the correlations between the 10
types of procedural errors and 6 types of conceptual errors which had an
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14
overall frequency greater than or equal to four. The cluster analysis revealed a correlation between actual and estimated proximities for this data
as 0.84, accounting for nearly 70% of the variance (R2 = 0.6988). The
additive tree is presented in Figure 3, and three main clusters of items
identified through the analysis are indicated by number on the tree.
Interpretation of the three items forming the first cluster suggests that
conceptual difficulties in working with the formal language of probability
(which includes difficulty working with the algebra of sets versus the algebra of real numbers) are related to misconceptions and procedures involving
mutually exclusive events. Due to the long arc emanating from this cluster,
this is also one of the more prominent relationships observed. One explanation for this prominence is the tendency of interpreting the word and as
implying addition, which may lead to application of the addition rule for
determining the union of two mutually exclusive events. This means that the
student would apply the rule P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B), when the task actually involves finding the intersection of these events, that is, P(A and B).
The second cluster identified on the additive tree includes several combinations of conceptual and procedural errors. Taken together, the eight
items in this cluster seem to indicate a very general relationship between
misconceptions of independence, conceptual difficulty in distinguishing
between independent and mutually exclusive events, and procedural difficulty in solving probability problems which require some knowledge of
independent versus non-independent events, such as conditional probability, sequential selection with or without replacement, and working with
data in table form.
The third cluster on the tree can be identified as difficulty in working
with formulas in general. The errors in this cluster include unfinished
solution attempts, inventing procedures or rules to fit ones understanding of a problem, and difficulty working with formulas for complementary
events. Formulas involving complementary events are often confusing for
students, particularly if determining the complement of an event is required as a first step towards solution.
One item which appears to stand alone in relation to the other clusters is
the concept of equally likely events. This item, then, is relatively unique,
although it is placed closest in the tree to the cluster of items indicating
difficulty working with formulas in general. The assumption that events
are equally likely, whether justified or not, makes the computation involved in many probability problems easier. Therefore, students who have
difficulty understanding and working with formulas may also tend to feel
more comfortable relying on this assumption simply to reduce the complexity of the solution process.
15
Fig. 4. Additive tree for text comprehension, conceptual, procedural, and arithmetic error
types.
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17
are equally likely. This clustering suggests that the wording of traditional
probability problems, as well as their contextual placement in a set of
problems, may be confusing to some students. Again, assuming that events
are equally likely may be the easiest strategy for a student to rely on in
order to reach a solution in a difficult situation.
Difficulty in assigning a given probability value to the correct event as
given in the text forms a cluster (cluster 5) with two procedural errors:
those involving conditional probability and errors involving complementary probability. This is not surprising, since many students tend to interpret sentences such as the probability is 1/20 that a female student will be
taking a science course as a conjunction (i.e., P(F and Science)=1/20)
instead of a conditional probability (P(Science | F)=1/20). Similarly, if the
text of a problem supplies complementary probabilities, such as the probability of an elevator not working, misinterpretation of the given information is likely to occur. These three errors are also associated with difficulties understanding the concept of independence, and procedural errors in
determining an appropriate event or sample space. Again we see that textual difficulties are associated with specific conceptual and procedural
errors.
The last cluster identified on the tree contains three errors (cluster 6). In
this cluster, arithmetic errors are combined with procedural errors in the
general use of formulas and difficulty distinguishing conceptually between independent and mutually exclusive events. Poor arithmetic skill is
only one reason why students are often unsuccessful at probability problem-solving, yet improving this skill may also help people understand the
conceptual underpinnings of formulas used most often in this domain.
Summary of the Analyses
Overall, results of the first analysis suggest several relationships among
conceptual and procedural errors: associations between conceptual and
procedural errors regarding mutually exclusive events; associations between conceptual and procedural errors regarding independent events and
related formulas; and procedural difficulty when working with formulas in
general.
However, more useful information pertinent to diagnosing a students
difficulties during probability problem-solving is obtained from the cluster analysis for error types in all four categories: text comprehension,
conceptual, procedural, and arithmetic errors. The clusters on the additive
tree derived from the set of errors for this sample of students indicate how
text comprehension difficulties are associated with conceptual and procedural errors during problem-solving. These results suggest that those stu-
18
DISCUSSION
Studies of errors and misconceptions have enormous potential for the
improvement of teaching and learning (Hiebert & Carpenter, 1992; Wittrock, 1991; Langley, Wogulis, & Ohlsson, 1990). Instruction should be
flexible and guided by an accurate assessment of the students understanding of the subject. As a preliminary step towards diagnosis and remediation of student difficulties in probability problem-solving, this study has
revealed the nature of several relationships among conceptual, procedural,
arithmetic, and text comprehension errors.
From an educators perspective, a students understanding of probability problem-solving is recognized by the ability to successfully work within the formal system of concepts and procedures which define this domain.
Diagnosis of student difficulties in this area is a complicated task, as many
misconceptions are related to each other and attempts to remediate a single
misconception may not result in an improved ability to solve different, or
even similar, types of problems. However, several specific pedagogical
strategies are suggested based on the results of this study.
In particular, it was shown that poor arithmetic skills are related to
difficulties in working with formulas in general. Pre-requisite arithmetic
skills and the ability to understand information presented in words, as well
as in symbols, are crucial to students development of appropriate cognitive models for probability problem-solving. One suggestion for improved
instruction, then, is to encourage a prerequisite course in arithmetic and
basic algebra before students enroll in a first course in probability and
statistics. This is especially pertinent for graduate students who may not
have had a math course for quite some time. A refresher course in basic
mathematics concepts may also help to alleviate the difficulty which some
students have in working with inequalities and relational expressions.
Due to the high proportion of errors attributed to text comprehension
difficulties (23%), particularly regarding translation of probabilities given
in the text of a problem and the identification of the goal, students should
be given practice at reading and interpreting word problems in probability.
Students need the ability to relate natural language to the language of
probability. Since many probability problems require understanding of
relational operators such as less than, at least, etc., students should
also be given practice in representing these phrases in set notation. This
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