FORT ROUGE

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 5 AM CST, MARCH 24, 2016

PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK INC.
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 406 Fort Rouge residents by Smart IVR on March 21st-22nd, 2016. A
mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 4.81%, 19 times out of 20.

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"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected

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be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper
credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

FORT ROUGE: BOKHARI CLINGS ON IN TIGHT 3 WAY RACE

March 24, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds a dead heat in the Winnipeg riding
of Fort Rouge with Liberal Leader Rana Bokhari just narrowly hanging on. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll
has a margin of error of +/- 4.81%, 19 times out of 20.
The race in Fort Rouge is coming down to the wire said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research.
Perhaps unexpectedly this is a three-way race, not a two-way race. Bokhari is leading within the margin of
error, its a statistical dead heat.
Mainstreet is well known for its accurate riding level work. Most recently, a riding poll of the Calgary
Greenway by election was validated on Tuesday as an accurate representation of public opinon.
Among all voters: Bokhari 25.77%, Gordon 24.1%, Kinew 23.74%, Sharp 6.27%, Undecided: 20.12%
Among Decided and Leaning voters: Bokhari: 32.19%, Kinew: 29.84%, Gordon: 29.44%, Sharp: 8.53%
Among Decided Voters Only: Bokhari: 32.26%, Gordon: 30.18%, Kinew: 29.72%, Sharp: 7.85%
The Liberals cannot aord to have Bokhari personally campaign in the riding, they will have to depend on
volunteers and Bokharis media presence as leader continued Maggi. That is the opportunity for Gordon
and Kinew. As local candidates they can canvass for votes and use the personal touch to win over
undecideds.
With 1 in 5 voters in Fort Rouge undecided this is anyones game. Rarely do we see party leaders in
competitive races, this will be the riding to watch on election night, nished Maggi.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

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Kinew

Gordon

Bokhari

Undecided 20%

Green 6%

Liberal 26%

PC 24%

NDP 24%

If the provincial election

were held today,which candidate
would you support?

Sharp

Undecided

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18-34

27%

35-49

21%

50-64

24%

65+

23%

Male

21%

Female

If the provincial election

were held today,which candidate
would you support?

26%

10

18%

28%

25%

22%

25%

7% 15%

21%

30%

7% 19%

26%

18%
30

6% 25%

30%

31%

20

5% 21%

8%

26%
40

14%

26%

50

60

70

80

90

100

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

Kinew

27%

21%

24%

23%

21%

26%

Gordon

18%

25%

25%

31%

30%

18%

Bokhari

28%

22%

30%

21%

26%

26%

Sharp

5%

6%

7%

7%

8%

4%

PC
Undecided

21%

25%

15%

19%

14%

26%

Sample

107

97

87

115

199

207

A5

And which party are you

leaning towards voting for?
[Undecided Only]

15%

12%

50%

16%

7%

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

Undecided

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If the provincial election

were held today,which candidate
would you support?

30

25

20

15

10

Decided Only

Kinew

Decided and Leaning

Gordon

Bokhari

Sharp

9%

32%

29%

30%

8%

32%

30%

30%

A7

18-34

35%

35-49

30%

50-64

26%

65+

27%

Male

24%

Female

If the provincial election

were held today,which candidate
would you support?

36%

10

21%

37%

30%

7%

30%

30%

35%

9%

41%

23%

36%

30

8%

31%
23%

20

10%

40

9%

34%
50

60

8%
70

80

90

100

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

Kinew

35%

30%

26%

27%

24%

36%

Gordon

21%

30%

30%

41%

36%

23%

Bokhari

37%

30%

35%

23%

31%

34%

Sharp

7%

10%

9%

8%

9%

8%

PC
Sample

97

88

79

102

187

179

A8

SCRIPT

If a provincial election were held today which candidate would you support?
Wab Kinew of the NDP led by Greg Selinger
Audrey Gordon of the PC Party led by Brian Pallister
Liberal Leader Rana Bokhari
Grant Sharp of the Green Party led James Beddome
Undecided
And which party are you leaning towards voting for?
NDP led by Greg Selinger
Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister
Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari
Green Party led James Beddome
Undecided

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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