DREAMS AND NIGHTMARES

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 5 AM CST, APRIL 10, 2016

PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,844 Manitoba residents by Smart IVR on April 5th, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell
phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.28%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Winnipeg: +/-3.05%; Rest of
Manitoba: +/-3.44%; ; 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

B2

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected

by copyright. The information and/or data may only
be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper
credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

WORST CASE SCENARIO RIGHT NOW FOR PCs IS A MINORITY GOVERNMENT

April 10, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) After crunching the numbers from the newest Manitoba poll released,
Mainstreet Research nds the worst case scenario for the PCs right now is a strong minority government.
The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.28%, 19 times out of 20.
After looking at the numbers from our earlier release this week we wanted to see what the best and worst
case scenarios might be for the current parties said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. For
the best case scenario we gave each party all of its voters plus leaning voters and all the soft voters who
might switch from other parties. For the worst case scenario we took away all voters except diehard
supporters. What we see is that no matter what the scenario, the PCs still win government.
Even in a best case scenario for the NDP using the current numbers they would only be at 30% among
decided voters using our formula. The PCs would still be at 48% provincially and at 45% in Winnipeg where
they would have a 10% lead.
Without a dramatic change in the next few days this race is a foregone conclusion.
A week is a lifetime in politics but its hard to see how anything but a PC government will be elected come
April 19th. Even if you add a generous margin of error to these results the best case scenario for the NDP is
a dead heat in Winnipeg. The PC lead outside the city is just too large to make up ground.
For the Liberals there are two distinct possibilities: a historic nish or a return to previous results. The
worst case scenario using the current numbers would nd them at 8%. Enough perhaps to hold onto the
one seat they already have but they would be hard pressed to add another.
As we move into the nal days the leaders will have a chance to show us what theyre made of when more
Manitobans than ever before will be following the election campaign. There is still time for a surprise but
time is running out. If the NDP or Liberals are going to hold the PCs to a minority we will need to see a
change of numbers soon, nished Maggi.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

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NDP DREAM SCENARIO

All Voters 24%

38%

Winnipeg 28%

36%

Rest of Manitoba 17%

42%

7% 20%
5% 22%
14%

45%

Decided RoM 21%

NDP

9%

48%

Decided Winnipeg 35%

10

6% 21%

14%

Decided Only 30%

11%

11%

54%
20

PC

30

18%
40

Liberal

50

60

Green

70

80

Undecided

8%
9%
7%

90

100

B4

NDP NIGHTMARE SCENARIO

All Voters 12%

44%

Winnipeg 15%

19%

43%

19%

Rest of Manitoba 8% 47%

Decided Only 15%

53%
50%

NDP

20

PC

16%
14%

8% 18%
23%

10%

22%

Decided RoM 10% 57%

10

9%

19%

Decided Winnipeg 17%

9%

11%

23%
30

40

Liberal

50

60

Green

70

10%
80

Undecided

90

100

B5

PC DREAM SCENARIO

All Voters 18%

46%

Winnipeg 22%
Rest of Manitoba 11%

43%

NDP

10

12%
56%

Decided Winnipeg 26%

11%

50%

Decided Only 22%

Decided RoM 14%

11%

52%
64%
20

PC

7% 19%
7% 17%
5% 21%

14%

8%

13%

9%

15%
30

40

Liberal

50

Green

60

70

80

Undecided

90

7%
100

B6

PC NIGHTMARE SCENARIO

All Voters 22%

33%

Winnipeg 26%

31%

Rest of Manitoba 15%

Decided Winnipeg 31%

NDP

10

PC

8% 22%
11%

21%

46%
30

18%

22%

37%

20

20%

9%

19%
41%

Decided RoM 19%

9%

17%

36%

Decided Only 27%

18%

11%

24%
40

Liberal

50

60

Green

70

11%
80

Undecided

90

100

B7

LIBERAL DREAM SCENARIO

All Voters 15%

36%

Winnipeg 19%

23%

33%

24%

Rest of Manitoba 10% 41%

Decided Only 19%

Decided RoM 12%

0

NDP

10

7%

29%

53%

PC

22%
28%

41%

20

6% 19%

21%
46%

Decided Winnipeg 23%

6% 20%

7%

27%
30

40

Liberal

50

60

Green

70

7%
80

Undecided

90

100

B8

LIBERAL NIGHTMARE SCENARIO

All Voters 22%

44%

Winnipeg 27%
Rest of Manitoba 14%

41%

7% 9%
54%

Decided Winnipeg 33%

NDP

20%
8% 11%

49%

Decided RoM 18%

10

18%

6% 8% 17%

49%

Decided Only 27%

7% 9%

8% 10%

62%
20

PC

30

9%
40

Liberal

50

Green

60

70

80

Undecided

90

12%
100

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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