MANITOBAS DEBATE

METHODOLOGY
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 998 Manitobans by Smart IVR on April 12th, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones
were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Winnipeg: +/- 4.32%; Rest of Manitoba:
+/-4.45%; 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

A2

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected

by copyright. The information and/or data may only
be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper
credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

PALLISTER, BEDDOME SCORE BIG IN TELEVISED DEBATE

April 12th, 2016 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll conducted immediately following the
Televised Leaders Debate nds Brian Pallister was the big winner with James Beddome scoring well
among debate watchers. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.01%, 19 times out of
20.
This was a good debate for Brian Pallister who kept calm and steady, said Quito Maggi, President of
Mainstreet Research. Its clear from favourability scores he and James Beddome did best.
Favourability Scores (Positive minus Negative):
Selinger: -32
Pallister: 0
Bokhari: -40
Beddome: +26
Beddome is the only candidate with a positive score, while 44% of Manitobans said Pallister won the
debate. These have to be very troubling number for Bokhari who actually scores lower than Greg Selinger
- thats not good.
There needed to be a knockout blow to change the dynamics of this election - there wasnt one. For now
it looks like Brian Pallister continues to coast to a strong nish on election day now just under a week away,
nished Maggi.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

Regardless of which party you happen to

support, who do you think did the better job in
tonight's debate? [Debate Watchers Only]

40
35
30
25
20
15
10

Selinger

Pallister

Bokhari

Undecided 10%

James Beddome 19%

Rana Bokhari 4%

Brian Pallister 44%

Greg Selinger 24%

Beddome

Undecided

A4

Regardless of which party you happen to

support, who do you think did the better job in
tonight's debate? [Debate Watchers Only]

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

Greg Selinger

14%

28%

24%

26%

19%

28%

Brian Pallister

43%

45%

44%

44%

40%

47%

Rana Bokhari

3%

4%

5%

5%

5%

3%

James Beddome

23%

17%

18%

17%

22%

15%

Undecided

18%

6%

10%

9%

13%

7%

75

247

318

358

408

590

Sample

Manitoba

Winnipeg

Rest of MB

Greg Selinger

24%

25%

19%

Brian Pallister

44%

40%

53%

Rana Bokhari

4%

3%

6%

James Beddome

19%

21%

14%

Undecided

10%

12%

7%

Sample

998

514

484

A5

And do you have a favourable or unfavourable

opinion of Greg Selinger?
[Debate Watchers Only]

18%
25%

57%

Favourable

Unfavourable

Not Sure

A6

And do you have a favourable

or unfavourable opinion of Greg Selinger?
[Debate Watchers Only]

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

Favourable

21%

23%

23%

32%

21%

28%

Unfavourable

53%

67%

56%

52%

59%

55%

Not Sure

26%

10%

22%

16%

19%

17%

Manitoba

Winnipeg

Rest of MB

Favourable

25%

24%

26%

Unfavourable

57%

53%

65%

Not Sure

18%

22%

9%

A7

And do you have a favourable

or unfavourable opinion of Brian Pallister?
[Debate Watchers Only]

22%

39%

39%

Favourable

Unfavourable

Not Sure

A8

And do you have a favourable

or unfavourable opinion of Brian Pallister?
[Debate Watchers Only]

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

Favourable

27%

36%

43%

48%

39%

39%

Unfavourable

30%

47%

40%

40%

35%

43%

Not Sure

44%

17%

18%

12%

26%

17%

Manitoba

Winnipeg

Rest of MB

Favourable

39%

33%

52%

Unfavourable

39%

41%

37%

Not Sure

22%

26%

11%

A9

And do you have a favourable

or unfavourable opinion of Rana Bokhari?
[Debate Watchers Only]

16%

29%

56%

Favourable

Unfavourable

Not Sure

A10

And do you have a favourable

or unfavourable opinion of Rana Bokhari?
[Debate Watchers Only]

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

Favourable

13%

13%

15%

22%

15%

17%

Unfavourable

51%

61%

60%

48%

49%

62%

Not Sure

36%

27%

24%

29%

36%

21%

Manitoba

Winnipeg

Rest of MB

Favourable

16%

15%

19%

Unfavourable

56%

56%

55%

Not Sure

29%

29%

26%

A11

And do you have a favourable or unfavourable

opinion of James Beddome?
[Debate Watchers Only]

28%

49%

23%

Favourable

Unfavourable

Not Sure

A12

And do you have a favourable or unfavourable

opinion of James Beddome?
[Debate Watchers Only]

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

Favourable

55%

54%

43%

46%

50%

48%

Unfavourable

19%

24%

28%

21%

22%

24%

Not Sure

26%

22%

29%

34%

28%

28%

Manitoba

Winnipeg

Rest of MB

Favourable

49%

53%

39%

Unfavourable

23%

18%

36%

Not Sure

28%

29%

25%

A13

And who do you think will win the provincial

election on April 19th? [Debate Watchers Only]

60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

Undecided 15%

Green 5%

Liberal

PC 60%

NDP 17%

3%

10

Undecided

A14

And who do you think will win the provincial

election on April 19th? [Debate Watchers Only]

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

NDP

16%

17%

16%

20%

13%

22%

PC

59%

65%

60%

56%

62%

58%

Liberal

2%

3%

4%

3%

3%

3%

Green

18%

1%

1%

1%

8%

1%

Undecided

5%

14%

19%

20%

14%

16%

Manitoba

Winnipeg

Rest of MB

NDP

17%

19%

14%

PC

60%

55%

69%

Liberal

3%

3%

3%

Green

5%

7%

1%

Undecided

15%

16%

13%

A15

And if the provincial election were held today,

which party would you support?
[Debate Watchers Only]

55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10

All

NDP

12%

6%

55%

27%

17%

8%

5%

47%

23%

Decided & Leaning

PC

Liberal

Green

Undecided

A16

And if the provincial election were held today,

which party would you support?
[Debate Watchers Only]

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

NDP

21%

24%

21%

28%

21%

25%

PC

56%

44%

43%

47%

46%

48%

Liberal

2%

4%

6%

4%

5%

4%

Green

17%

4%

7%

6%

11%

6%

Undecided

5%

24%

23%

14%

17%

17%

Manitoba

Winnipeg

Rest of MB

NDP

23%

25%

20%

PC

47%

44%

53%

Liberal

5%

4%

6%

Green

8%

9%

6%

Undecided

17%

18%

16%

A17

And which Party are you leaning towards voting

for? [Undecided Only]

6%

19%

52%
7%

16%

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

Undecided

A18

SCRIPT

Regardless of which party you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in tonight's
debate?
Greg Selinger of the NDP
Brian Pallister of the Progressive Conservatives
Rana Bokhari of the Liberal Party
James Beddome of the Greens
Undecided
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Greg Selinger?
Favourable
Unfavourable
Not Sure
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Brian Pallister?
Favourable
Unfavourable
Not Sure
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Rana Bokhari?
Favourable
Unfavourable
Not Sure
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of James Beddome?
Favourable
Unfavourable
Not Sure

A19

SCRIPT

And who do you think will win the provincial election on April 19th?
NDP led by Greg Selinger
Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister
Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari
Green Party led James Beddome
Undecided
And if the provincial election were held today, which party would you support?
NDP led by Greg Selinger
Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister
Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari
Green Party led James Beddome
Undecided
And which Party are you leaning towards voting for?
NDP led by Greg Selinger
Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister
Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari
Green Party led James Beddome
Undecided