MARCO EMPRICO

1. Variables
Chihuahua
Ao

201
4
201
3
201
2
201
1
201
0
200
9
200
8
200
7
200
6
200
5

Superfi
cie
sembra
da
(ha)
11,723.
16
7,849.1
0
9,525.3
7
10,941.
61
11,510.
08
8,171.5
6
8,726.7
4
12,467.
69
12,048.
29
14,339.
25

Superfici
e
cosecha
da
(ha)
11,723.1
6
7,784.10
9,322.37
10,765.6
1
11,480.0
8
8,128.56
7,719.56
12,346.6
9
11,468.7
9
13,277.2
5

Producci
n
(ton)

PMR
($/Ton)

413,963.
23
276,829.
47
350,415.
43
343,942.
91
337,239.
10
259,767.
13
237,403.
20
310,412.
67
284,728.
36
279,693.
50

3,108.
35
2,624.
81
2,844.
06
2,886.
05
2,488.
29
2,771.
87
2,884.
47
2,294.
58
1,622.
63
3,278.
34

Sinaloa
Ao

201
4
201
3
201

Superfi
cie
sembra
da
(ha)
3,984.3
1
3,202.6
6
2,979.7

Superfici Producci
e
n
cosecha
da
(ha)
3,974.31 132,226.
56

PMR

3,069.75 77,324.0
4
2,930.72 69,783.3

6,610.
38
6,063.

5,792.
10

2
201
1
201
0
200
9
200
8
200
7
200
6
200
5

2
3,489.0
0
3,577.0
0
3,101.1
5
3,415.4
5
3,809.4
0
4,072.0
0
3,904.5
0

2,737.85
3,295.00
3,101.15
3,415.45
3,771.40
4,046.00
3,904.50

0
45,308.5
0
86,647.3
0
79,662.5
0
113,499.
73
132,282.
00
100,661.
00
85,073.0
0

65
4,939.
45
6,044.
93
5,988.
58
4,425.
26
5,347.
71
2,381.
32
2,491.
64

2. Tasas de crecimiento
Chihuahua
Period
o
13-14
12-13
11-12
10-11
09-10
08-09
07-08
06-07
05-06
Sinaloa

Superficie
sembrada
49.35

Superficie
cosechada
50.60

Producci
n
49.53

PMR

-17.59

-16.50

-20.99

-7.70

-12.94
-4.93
40.85
-6.36
-30.00
3.48
-15.97

-13.40
-6.22
41.23
5.29
-37.47
7.65
-13.62

1.88
1.98
29.82
9.42
-23.52
9.02
1.80

-1.45
15.98
-10.23
-3.90
25.70
41.41
-50.50

18.42

Periodo
13-14
12-13
11-12
10-11
09-10
08-09
07-08
06-07
05-06

Superficie
sembrada
24.40
7.48
-14.59
-2.46
15.34
-9.20
-10.34
-6.44
4.28

Superficie
cosechada
29.46

Produccin

PMR

71.00

-12.37

4.74

10.80

9.01

7.04
-16.90
6.25
-9.20
-9.43
-6.78
3.62

54.01
-47.70
8.76
-29.81
-14.19
31.41
18.32

22.75
-18.28
0.94
35.32
-17.24
124.56
-4.42

3. Estadstica descriptiva
Variables:

Volumen de produccin (x)

Precio medio rural (y)

Chihuahua
Ao x
2014 413,963.
23
2013 276,829.
47
2012 350,415.
43
2011 343,942.
91
2010 337,239.
10
2009 259,767.
13
2008 237,403.
20
2007 310,412.
67
2006 284,728.
36
2005 279,693.

y
3,108.35
2,624.81
2,844.06
2,886.05
2,488.29
2,771.87
2,884.47
2,294.58
1,622.63
3,278.34

xy
1,286,742,605.
9705
726,624,761.15
07
996,602,507.84
58
992,636,435.40
55
839,148,680.13
90
720,040,714.63
31
684,782,408.30
40
712,266,704.32
86
462,008,778.78
68
916,930,388.79

x2
171,365,555,792.
0330
76,634,555,460.4
809
122,790,973,582.
0850
118,296,725,339.
2680
113,730,210,568.
8100
67,478,961,828.4
369
56,360,279,370.2
400
96,356,025,696.5
289
81,070,238,988.2
896
78,228,453,942.2

y2
9,661,839.72
25
6,889,627.53
61
8,088,677.28
36
8,329,284.60
25
6,191,587.12
41
7,683,263.29
69
8,320,167.18
09
5,265,097.37
64
2,632,928.11
69
10,747,513.1

50

00

500

Media
Volumen de produccin: 309,439.50
Precio medio rural: 2,680.35

Raz xy= 4,373,781.9079

Raz x= 49,783.4701
Raz y= 443.5642
R cuadrada= 0.1980
m= 0.0018
b= 2,134.2571
y= 0.0018x + 2,134.2571

Sinaloa
x
132,226.
56
77,324.0
4
69,783.3
0
45,308.5
0
86,647.3
0
79,662.5
0
113,499.
73
132,282.
00

y
5,792.10
6,610.38
6,063.65
4,939.45
6,044.93
5,988.58
4,425.26
5,347.71

xy
765,869,458.
1760
511,141,287.
5352
423,141,507.
0450
223,799,070.
3250
523,776,863.
1890
477,065,254.
2500
502,265,815.
1798
707,405,774.
2200

x2
y2
17,483,863,169 33,548,422.
.4336
4100
5,979,007,161. 43,697,123.
9216
7444
4,869,708,958. 36,767,851.
8900
3225
2,052,860,172. 24,398,166.
2500
3025
7,507,754,597. 36,541,178.
2900
7049
6,346,113,906. 35,863,090.
2500
4164
12,882,188,710 19,582,926.
.0729
0676
17,498,527,524 28,598,002.
.0000
2441

556

100,661.
239,706,052. 10,132,636,921
00 2,381.32
5200
.0000
85,073.0
211,971,289. 7,237,415,329.
0 2,491.64
7200
0000

5,670,684.9
424
6,208,269.8
896