SuggestedSolutionsto2015C2PrelimStatisticsRevisionPackagePnCandProbability

1.

PJC 2013/Prelim/II/6

RJC 2013/Prelim/II/6

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2.

nt

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Fo

Case 1: all 5 letters are different,

number of code-words = 8C5 5! 6720
Case 2: 1 pair of repeated letters are used,
5!
number of code-words = 3C1 7C3 6300
2!
Case 3: 2 pairs of repeated letters are used,
5!
540
number of code-words = 3C2 6C1
2!2!
Total number of 5-letter code-words = 6720 + 6300 + 540 = 13560

Number of arrangements 12! 6! 26 478955520

(ii)

Number of arrangements 6C5 (5 1)! 25 5 4 92160

na

(i)

Or: 6C1 (5 1)! 25 5 P2 ; 6 (6 1)! 25 4 ; 6 (7 1)! 25 (6 1)! 26

VJC 2011/Prelim/II/6
P B A ' 1
P B A ' 1
1
1

P B A '
(i) P B | A '
3
P A '
3
1 P A
3
9

lC

3.

(ii)

P A | B

P A B 4
4

7
P B
7

2 1 7

3 9 9

But P B P A B P A ' B

P A B
P A B
4
4
4

P A B
1
P A B P A ' B 7
7
27
P A B
9

2 7
7
P A B P A B
3 4
9

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Or P A P B P A B P A B

at

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irc

P A B P A P A ' B

4.

ACJC 2011/Prelim/II/6

(i)

Case 1: First digit is 1 or 2:

5!
2 120
2!

5!
30
2!2!
Total number of 6-digit numbers is 150.
4!
12
First and last digits are 1:
2!
4!
12
First digit is 1 and last digit is 3:
2!
4!
First digit is 2 and last digit is 3:
12
2!
First digit is 2 and last digit is 1: 4! 24
Case 2: First digit is 3:

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(ii)

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5.

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Total number of 6-digit numbers is 12 + 12 + 12 + 24 = 60.

NYJC 2013/Prelim/II/9

na

10!
907200
2!2!

(ii)

Method 1 (Complementation)

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(i)

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No of ways
No of ways the two Ts

without restriction are next to each other

9!
907200
2!
725760
Method 2 (Insertion method)
8! 9
725760
2! 2

at

X X X X X X X X

(iii)

T
T

T
T
T

io

T
T

T
T

(Insertion method)

8!
6 120960
2!

6.

AJC 2013/Prelim/II/6
2

C1 ( 2C1 8C1 8C2 ) 88

8

0.178
12
C4
495 45

P( exactly one married couple)

(ii)

Number of ways with no restriction = 12!

Fo

(i)

At least 3 in the same row :

Case 1: one delegates in one row and 3 in the other row

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4C3 8C3 6! 6! 2 232243200

Case 2: all 4 delegates in one row

4C4 8C2 6! 6! 2 29030400

nt

Required probability

ACJC 2013/Prelim/II/7

(i)

10!

(ii)

Method 1:

na

er

7.

232243200 290030400
6
0.54545... 0.545
12!
11

(iii)

M F M F M
F M F M

or

ul
irc

lC

Case 1: one group has 1 female chef, the other has 3 female chefs.
6 4
4 1 2 120

Case 2: both groups have exactly 2 female chefs.
6 4
3 2 120

Total number of ways = 120 + 120 = 240
Alternative method:
10 6
5 5 2 240

M F M F M
M F M F

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5 4
or 3! 2! 2 2 2 5760
3 2

at

5! 4! 2 5760

8.

NYJC 2012/BT2/II/5

n!
n!
6!
n(n 1)(n 2)(n 3)(n 4)(n 5)
(n 6)!6!
(n 6)!
(n 2)!
(ii) No. of ways in choosing 4 patients = n2C4
(n 2 4)!4!
No. of ways in arranging the 2 elderly patients and the other 4 patients
(n 2)!
6!
=
(n 2 4)!4!
30(n 2)(n 3)(n 4)(n 5)
(iii) No. of ways = 6!
(i)

No. of ways nC6 6!

DHS 2013/Prelim/II/6

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9.

6!
(6 n)!

nt

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Fo

(iv) No. of ways =

Number of ways 8! 40320

(ii)

Number of ways 4!4!4 2304

4=waystoarrangetheboysandgirlsoneachside

na

(i)

10!
P8 or
2!

1814400

4C 2 2! 8C 6 6!
or 4 P2 8 P6

C8 =waystochooseany8outofthe10seats
tositthe4boysand4girls

8!=waystoarrangetheboysandgirls
10!
arrange 10 objects in a row with 2 identical
2!

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(iv) Number of ways

lC

C8 8! or

10

th

10

(iii) Number of ways

10

4!4! =waysthegroupsof4boys&4girlscan

C22! =waystochooseany2outofthe4boystositonthe2
seatsandwaystoarrangethe2boys

C6 6! =waystochooseany6outofthe8seatstositthe

remaining2boys/4girlsandwaystoarrangethe2
boys/4girls

241920

at

8! =waystoarrange6peopleand2emptychairs
2

Number of ways = (6 1)! = 120

(ii)

Fix one girl, the other girl has only 4 seats to choose from.
The remaining 4 people can be arranged in 4! ways.
Number of ways = 4(4!) = 96

(i)

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10. RI 2012/BT2/Q9

(iii) 3 girls, 2 boys and a chair can be considered as 6 distinct objects.

So, number of ways = (6 1)! = 120

Fo

(iv) The first boy has 3 choices of odd-numbered seats, the 2nd boy has 2 choices. The
girls can then be arranged in 3! ways.
Number of ways = 3 x 2 x 3! = 36

11. TJC 2013/Prelim/II/7

(a)

(i) No of ways = (10 1)! = 9! =362880

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(ii) No of ways = 10 P7 = 604800

C2 6C2 4C2 2C2
24 1680
4!

nt

(b)

(i) Number of possible sets of results =

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(Split the students into pair groupings first, then decide on the results)
OR
8
Number of possible sets of results = 4! 1680
4

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8
(There are ways of choosing 4 winners. And there are 4! ways of matching
4
these winners to losers.
(ii) Number of ways to award the four finalists =

(i)

Case1: without 1 of the red card =

ul
irc

12. SAJC 2013/Prelim/II/6

4!
= 12
2!

9!
1260
4!3!2!

Case 2 : without 1 of the blue card =

9!
756
2!5!2!

io

at

9!
504
5!3!

Case 3 : without 1 of the yellow card =

Total = 2520
P(total score 4) = P(1Y1R2B)+P(4R)
OR

3 2 5 2 4! 5 4 3 2 1

10 9 8 7 2! 10 9 8 7 6

C1 5C1 3C2 5C4 1

10
10
C4
C4 6

(ii)

13. SAJC 2011/Prelim/II/8

Let event D: person infected with disease
event A: positive result
event N: negative result
A

Fo

0.98

PD
0.02N

0.08A

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1pD

0.92N

nt

P ( D A)
0.98 p
0.98 p

P ( A)
0.98 p 0.08(1 p ) 0.9 p 0.08
(ii) P(wrong conclusion) = P(D,N) + P(D, A) = 0.02p + 0.08(1 p) = 0.08 0.06p
P ( D, A, A)
(iii) P(individual has the disease| result of 2nd test is positive) =
P ( D, A, A) P ( D ', A, A)
0.982 p
=
0.982 p 0.082 p
0.9604 p

0.0064 0.954 p

(i)

P D | A

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na

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(iv) Let X be the r.v. no of people who will take the test twice.
X ~ B 12000, 0.08

14. VJC 2011/Prelim/II/9

(i)

Number of ways 6!2! 7 C3 302400

(ii)

Number of ways 4!6! 17280

8!2!
9!

15. RJC 2011/Prelim/II/6

io

at

Probability

ul
irc

Expected no of people who has to take the test twice np 960

2 4 3 5 23
Probability
5 10 5 10 50

(ii)

Probability P(transferring from A to B and drawing a white ball from B) +

P(transferring from B to A and drawing a white ball from A)

(i)

1 23 3 5 3 4 4

4 50 4 9 6 9 6
491

900

Fo

P (ball transferred from A to B final ball chosen is white)

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P transfer from A to B and final ballchosen is white

P final ballchosen is white

er

nt

1 23 23

4 50
200 207

491
491 982

900
900

16. DHS 2011/Prelim/II/7

na
0.175

0.35

Clear

Doesntclear

0.825

lC

0.35

Clear

0.

Clear

Doesntclear

0.65

Clear

0.65

0.35

Clear

0.3
Doesntclear

0.65
0.3

Doesntclear

Stage1

Stage2

Clear

ul
irc

0.7

Doesntclear

Doesntclear

Stage3

(ii)

P(clears exactly 2 stages)

0.7 0.35 0.825 0.7 0.65 0.35 0.3 0.7 0.35
0.43488 0.435 (3 d.p.)

(iii) P(clears the third stage | cleared exactly 2 stages)

P game ends prematurely 0.3 0.3 0.09

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at

(i)

0.7 0.65 0.35 0.3 0.7 0.35

0.43488

0.535 (3 d.p.)

Fo
17.

RI 2012/BT2/10
P(same colour)

C2 7C2 8

10
C2
15

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Die is 6

nt
Same colour

Die is not 6

Die is 6

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Die is 6

na

Different
colour

Die is not 6
Die is 6

Die is not 6

lC
Die is not 6

8 1 7 5 1
59
2
15 6 15 6 6
270

P(wins exactly one prize)

(ii)

P(different colour|did not win any prize)

P(different colour and did not win any prize)

P(did not win any prize)

7 5 5

35
15
6 6

(0.422 (3 s.f.))
8 5 7 5 5 83

15 6 15 6 6

(0.219 (3 s.f.))

1 1 1

6 6 36

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(iii) P wins 2 prizes| different colour

at

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(i)

Mean number of prizes 2

1 1

6 3

1
(iv) Let X be the number of prizes John can win, out of 2 prizes. Then X ~ B(2, 6 ).

18. DHS 2012/BT2/11

(i)

P( H | C ) 0.75

Alternatively,
No. of buns containing
ham and cheese

rI

Fo

P( H C ) 0.75 P(C )
0.75 0.6
0.45

= 0.75 60 45

60 x 45 10 100
x 75

0.45

nt

0.1

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na

Using the Venn diagram,

0.45 0.1 1 x 75
0.6
100

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Since P( H ) 0.75 P( H | C ) , C and H are independent.

or P(C ) P( H ) 0.6 0.75 0.45 P(C H ) , hence C and H are independent.

Number of pieces containing cheese only = 60 45 = 15
Required probability

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(ii)

15 14 45
3 0.0292 (3s.f)
100 99 98

Alternatively, Required probability

at

C2 45C1
0.0292 (3s.f)
100
C3

15

(iii) Let E be the event that a randomly chosen piece of bread was consumed. Let F be the
event that a randomly chosen piece of bread was contaminated.

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n

0.3
0.6

Fo
0.4

F
F

0.7
y

E
F

1y

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Let P(F | E)= y

nt

(0.6)(0.3) + (0.4)y = 0.45

y = 0.675

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Hence, required probability = 0.675

Alternatively

na

Number of contaminated buns consumed 0.3 60 18

Number of contaminated buns that are not consumed

Required probability

27
0.675
40

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19. TJC 2012/Prelim/II/6

lC

= 45 18 = 27

(i)

3 1 4 2 1
2 4 4 1
92 23
P( X ) 1

6 6 6 6 6
6 6 6 6 216 54

(ii)

Now P( X | Y )

at

P( X Y ) P( X )
[M1 for realising X Y = X]

P(Y )
P(Y )

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b 3, a 0 or 2, c 1

Since Event Y = "b greater than both a and c" = or b 7, a 0 or 2, c 1 or 6

or b 16, a 0, 2 or 9, c 1 or 6

3 5 4 2 5
1
P(Y ) 1 11 [M1 for one correct, M2 for all correct
6 6 6 6 6
6

156 13

216 18

Fo

23
23
P( X | Y ) 54
[A1]
13 39
18

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P(score 3)

13
3
4 4 13
p 1 p
27
6
6 6 27

nt
p

2
3

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20. DHS 2012/Prelim/II/11

11
1
P Abbey is first and Betty is sixth in the queue =
8 7 56

na

(ai)

(ii)

Required probability

ul
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6!
1
=
8! 56
1 6 5 4 3 1 1
Or =
8 7 6 5 4 3 56
Or

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at

=P(Abbey is first) + P(Betty is second) P(Abbey is first and Betty second)

1 7 1 1 1
7! 7! 6!
= + or
+
8 8 7 8 7
8! 8! 8!
13
=
56
Alternatively,
Required probability
= P(Abbey is first but Betty is not second) + P(Abbey is not first but Betty is second)
+ P(Abbey is first and Betty second)
6 6! 6 6! 6! 13

8!
8!
8! 56

2 gold coins;
1 gold coin and 1 silver coin; and
2 silver coins is selected, respectively.

(bi) Let A, B & C be the events a drawer containing:

Fo

Let G & S be the events: a gold coin is selected; and a silver coin is selected,
respectively.
1
P( A) P( B ) P(C )
3
1 1 1 1
1 1
and P( S ) 1 P(G ) 1
P(G )
3 3 2 2
2 2

nt

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P(Drawer containing 2 gold coins is selected given that the coin selected is gold)
=P( A | G )
P( A G )

P(G )
1
2
3
1
3
2
P(a gold coin is selected, followed by a silver coin)

er

(ii)

=P( A G ).P( S |{ A G}) P( B G ).P( S |{B G})

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at

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lC

na

1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2

3 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 1 3 2
1 1 1 2

3 2 6 3
5

18