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Amy Freeman
Unit Overview
Unit title:
Whats the Chance?
Content maths area:
Probability
Grade/year level:
Grade: 6
AusVELS Level: 6
Learning Focus (ideas extrapolated from AusVELS):
Content Strand: Statistics and Probability
Substrand: Chance
Proficiency strands: Understanding, Reasoning
Rationale:
In everyday life, probability is a concept that will be encountered by children on a daily
basis. Learning probability provides a meaningful situation for students to be problem
solvers, critical thinkers, improve their communication skills, work on their number
sense, utilise computation methods and draw links to numerous other areas of
mathematics (Reys, Lindquist, Lambdin, Smith, Rogers, Falle, Frid, & Bennett, 2012).
Jones (1979) argues that without the teaching of chance, there is the prospect that
children may respond to everyday situations that necessitate a chance understanding
with predetermined ideas, instinctive judgements and little knowledge that chance
events are even occurring.
Assumed prior knowledge of students:
chance language eg. probable, impossible, certain
probabilities range between 0 and 1
independent and dependent events
probabilities in fraction form
calculation of decimals and percentages
Grouping strategies to support learning:
Throughout these lessons, students will be both working in pairs as well as working
individually, however they will be in mixed abilities rather than grouping based on same
ability levels. In a study conducted by Linchevski and Kutscher (1998), it was found that
weaker students in mixed ability groupings saw significant gains in their achievements
over those in same ability grouping, and the higher students in each setting remained at
a constant level of achievement, concluding that it is possible for students of all ability
levels to learn mathematics effectively in a mixed ability class. The challenge is to
enhance the possibilities for each student to learn while avoiding disadvantaging any
particular group or student. Sullivan (1997) argues that utilising open tasks can allow
rich learning experiences for all students, regardless of ability grouping, which will occur
throughout this unit planner.
Overview of assessment:
Teachers should ensure the purpose of assessment relates to the information required,
assess the entire scope of learning goals using multiple strategies, involve students in
the process, use assessment strategies inclusive to all, make unbiased judgements,
provide feedback to students an d reflect on the information collected to plan future
learning (Australian Association of Mathematics Teachers Inc., 2008). These priorities
are reflected throughout the unit planner.
The assessment strategy used for the first three lessons will be teacher observation,
guided by criteria. This allows for clear identification of what it being looked out for,
providing guidelines of the standards to meet.
Peer assessment is used in Lesson 4 because as a learning tool, peer assessment can
provide students with skills to form judgements about what constitutes high quality work
and can also provide students a more accurate understanding of individual performance
in group work (Van Zundert, Sluijsmans & Van Merrinboer, 2010). As the teacher may
will be roving and not one-on-one while the game is played, peer assessment allows the
teacher some insight into the occurrences also.
Self assessment is used in the last lesson, which is an open task guided by an
advertisement which outlines the expectations. This makes clear right away the
standards that need to be met. Pupils should be involved in becoming critical evaluators
of their own work and acknowledge responsibility for their learning so peer assessment
allows this to happen. Primary children in Year 6 are capable of reflecting on their work,
using initiative and being held accountable for their learning (Towler & Broadfoot, 1992).
References:
Aspinwall, L., & Shaw, K. L. (2000). Enriching Students' Mathematical Intuitions with
Probability Games and Tree Diagrams. Mathematics Teaching in the Middle
School, 6(4), 214-20.
Aspinwall, L., & Tarr, J. E. (2002). The number of trials does matter. Mathematics
Teaching in the Middle School, 8(2), 106.
Australian Association of Mathematics Teachers Inc. (2008). Position paper on the
practice of assessing mathematics learning, pp. 1-9.
Australian Curriculum Assessment and Reporting Authority. (2015). AusVELS.
Retrieved from http://ausvels.vcaa.vic.edu.au/
Barnes, M. (1998). Dealing with Misconceptions about Probability. The Australian
Mathematics Teacher. 54 (1), 17-20.
Carpenter, T., Corbitt, M., Kepner, H., Lindquist, M., & Reys, R. (1981). What are the
chances of your students knowing probability?. The Mathematics Teacher, 342344.
Jones, G. (1979). A case for probability. The Arithmetic Teacher, 26(6), 37-57.
Linchevski, L., & Kutscher, B. (1998). Tell me with whom you're learning, and I'll tell you
how much you've learned: Mixed-ability versus same-ability grouping in
mathematics. Journal for Research in Mathematics Education, 533-554.
New Zealand Ministry of Education. (2010). Greedy Pig. Retrieved from
http://www.nzmaths.co.nz/resource/greedy-pig-0
New Zealand Ministry of Education. (2010). Card Sharp. Retrieved from
http://nzmaths.co.nz/resource/card-sharp
Peard, R. (1996). Problems with probability. In P. C. Clarkson (Ed.), Technology in
mathematics education (Proceedings of the 19th annual conference of the
Mathematics Education Research Group of Australasia, vol 1, pp.437-444).
Melbourne: MERGA.
Random.org. (2015). Playing card shuffler. Retrieved from
https://www.random.org/playing-cards/
Reys, R. E., Lindquist, L. M., Lambdin, D. V., Smith, N. L., Rogers, A., Falle, J., Frid, S.,
& Bennett, S. (2012). Helping children learn mathematics (1st Australian ed.).
Milton, Australia: John Wiley & Sons.
Sullivan, P. (1997). Mixed ability mathematics teaching: characteristics of suitable tasks.
Learning Matters, 2(3), 20-23.
Towler, L., & Broadfoot, P. (1992). Selfassessment in the primary school. Educational
Review, 44(2), 137-151.
Van Zundert, M., Sluijsmans, D., & Van Merrinboer, J. (2010). Effective peer
assessment processes: Research findings and future directions. Learning and
Instruction, 20(4), 270-279.
Year Level: 6
Key AusVELS Focus / Standard
Content strand(s):
Number and Algebra
Sub-strand(s):
Term:
Week: 5
Date: 3/11/15
Statistics and Probability
Level descriptions:
Describe probabilities using fractions, decimals and percentages
Conduct chance experiments with both small and large numbers of trials using appropriate digital technologies
Compare observed frequencies across experiments with expected frequencies
Proficiency strand(s):
Understanding
Fluency
Problem Solving
Reasoning
Understanding: Make connections between probability values expressed as fractions, decimals and percentages.
Reasoning: Test conjectures of theoretical probability with experimental outcomes.
Interactive Whiteboard
Marbles
Dice
Key vocabulary
probability: the likelihood of an event happening
likely
unlikely
possible
probable
certain
impossible
equal: the same in quantity, size, degree or value
dependant events: two events are dependent if the
outcome or occurrence of the first affects the
outcome or occurrence of the second so that the
probability is changed
independent events: independent events are not
affected by previous events
trial: particular performance of a random
experiment
experiment: total of all trials of performance of an
event
sample space: the set of possible outcomes of an
experiment
event
Possible misconceptions
assumed fairness (Aspinwall & Shaw, 2000).
equi-probability bias (Peard, 1996).
intuitive probability (Aspinwall & Shaw, 2000).
sample size (Aspinwall & Tarr, 2002).
awareness misconception (Barnes, 2008).
dependant and independent events (Carpenter
Corbitt, Kepner, Lindquist, & Reys, 1981).
Learning
strategies/ skills
Analysing
Checking
Classifying
Co-operating
Considering options
Designing
Elaborating
MATHEMATICAL
F OCUS
(what you want the children
to come to understand as a
result of this lesson short,
succinct statement)
Session 1
The likelihood
of outcomes of
Estimating
Explaining
Generalising
Hypothesising
Inferring
Interpreting
Justifying
TUNING IN
(WHOLE CLASS FOCUS)
(a short, sharp task relating to the
focus of the lesson; sets the scene/
context for what students do in the
independent aspect. e.g., It may be a
problem posed, spider diagram, an
open-ended question, game, or
reading a story)
Listening
Locating information
Making choices
Note taking
Observing
Ordering events
Organising
INVESTIGATIONS
SESSION
(INDEPENDENT LEARNING)
(extended opportunity for students to
work in pairs, small groups or
individually. Time for teacher to probe
childrens thinking or work with a small
group for part of the time and to also
conduct roving conferences)
Performing
Persuading
Planning
Predicting
Presenting
Providing feedback
Questioning
Reading
Recognising bias
Reflecting
Reporting
Responding
Restating
Revising
Seeing patterns
Selecting information
Self-assessing
Sharing ideas
Summarising
Synthesising
ADAPTATIONS
- Enabling prompt
(to allow those experiencing difficulty to
engage in active experiences related to
the initial goal task)
- Extending prompt
(questions that extend students
thinking on the initial task)
Enabling prompt
Students struggling to
come up with probability
words, fractions, decimals
Testing
Viewing
Visually representing
Working independently
Working to a timetable
ASSESSMENT
STRATEGIES
(should relate to objective. Includes
what the teacher will listen for,
observe, note or analyse; what
evidence of learning will be collected
and what criteria will be used to
analyse the evidence)
events can be
expressed in
words as well
as fractions,
decimals and
percentages.
Probability
values range
between 0 and
1 and
impossible to
certain
Session 2
Experiments
have expected
frequencies.
Invite students to go
beyond words and
brainstorm fractions,
decimals and percentages.
Probing questions:
What other things
come to mind when we
talk about probability?
Ive noticed that were
using a lot of words
that are coming to
mind. Are there other
ways we can express
probability of events?
Somebody said 50-50
chance, how else do
you think we could say
this? Could we write it
as a percentage? A
decimal?
Students struggling to
place their words on the
probability line Allow
students to place their
words in order on their own
individual line as a first
starting point. Teacher
assistance required in
helping guide them from
transferring their individual
line to class line.
Extending prompt
Instruct students to create
their squares with linked
words, fractions, decimals
and percentages rather
than the option of any eg.
possibly, 25%, 0.25,
Enabling prompt
Provide students
with a separate
bag with more
simple probability
out of 10 with 4 red
marbles, 2 blue
marbles, 3 green
marbles and 1
Session 3
Observed
frequencies
can differ from
expected
frequencies of
an experiment.
yellow marble.
Probing questions:
Was this end result a
mutual agreement?
Did anybody
disagree?
Did anybody have a
different answer but
their thinking was
changed when
discussing with the
group?
Why do you say that
there is a 1/3 chance
of pulling out a red
marble?
Which colour was
most/least likely to be
pulled out of the bag?
Were any of the
colours equally likely to
be pulled out?
Why/why not?
Why do we refer to
this as expected
frequencies?
Extending prompt
Ask students to
record the
probability in
multiple ways. eg.
fraction/decimal/
percentage
Enabling prompt
Provide students with
only half the cards (all
red/black only) so that
the probability is
working with smaller
values and removes
extra attributes.
Probing questions:
I notice you have
written that the
probability is 26/52. Is
there another way you
Probing questions:
I am noticing that a lot
Extending prompt
Get students thinking
about what would
happen if the cards
were not placed back
in the deck and were
instead removed.
Would the probability
Probing questions:
What would your
probability be out of?
How many cards are
there in a deck of
cards?
How many red/black
cards are there?
How many of each
suit are there?
Session 4
Observed
frequencies
can differ from
expected
frequencies of
an experiment.
Probing questions:
Does the expected
probability of rolling a 1
Probing questions:
Did you use a strategy
that you thought was
Enabling prompt
Students use a 6 sided
dice to narrow down
the options and
simplify the probability.
Extending prompt Students use a 20
sided dice to increase
the options and
increase as the
number of rolls
increases? Why/why
not?
Do you have a
strategy that you are
using to ensure you
win the game? Can
you explain your
thinking to me?
I notice that each time
after 5 turns, you are
stopping your turns.
What is your thinking
behind this?
probability.
Probing questions:
What is the expected
probability of rolling a
1?
What is the expected
probability of rolling a
number larger than 1?
Would you do
anything differently in
the next round?
Session 5
Observed
frequencies
can differ from
expected
frequencies of
an experiment
Allow students to go on a
gallery walk and read
about some of their
classmates chance
experiment creations.
Instruct students to be
paying particular attention
to the expected and
observed outcomes section
of each experiment.
Gather students to the floor
for a class discussion. Use
probing questions to guide
Enabling prompt
Provide students
with a specific type
of experiment to
conduct, however,
still allowing the
choice within that
experiment eg.
give them deck of
cards as a starting
point
Probing questions:
What are the
requirements for your
chance experiment?
What does it mean by
measureable? Can I
choose to do a chance
experiment about the
likelihood of Richmond
winning the grand
final? Is that
measureable to me
right now?
What does it mean by
trials?
Can you remind me
what the terms
expected and
observed outcomes
mean?
discussion as a whole.
Probing questions:
Were there any
experiments you saw
that really stood out to
you? Why?
Were the expected
outcomes different or
the same as the
observed outcomes
from what you saw?
What did you have to
take into consideration
when creating your
chance experiment?
Extending prompt
Extend the
minimum number
of trials to 50
How will this affect
your results? Will
they become more
representative?
Appendix 1
Session 1 Assessment Criteria (Checklist)
Criteria
Achievement Level
Notes
Appendix 2
Session 2 Assessment Criteria (Checklist)
Criteria
Achievement Level
Notes
Appendix 3
Session 3 Assessment Criteria (Checklist)
Criteria
Achievement Level
Notes
Appendix 4
Session 4 Peer Assessment
My partner
Appendix 5
Session 5 Tuning In Activity
Appendix 6
Session 5 Self Assessment
I am able to
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