CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP

METHODOLOGY
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 4,998 Canadians by Chimera IVR from April 26-27, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell
phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 1.39%, 19 times out of 20. Conservative Leadership Race margin of error: +/- 2.4%, 19
times out of 20. Total Conservative respondents: 1,676.

A2

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected

by copyright. The information and/or data may only
be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper
credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

AMBROSE WOULD SHAKE UP CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP RACE

April 29, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds the Liberal party would be the
runaway winner if an election were held today. Meanwhile, Rona Ambrose would shake up the Conservative
Party leadership race if she were allowed to enter. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of
+/- 1.39%, 19 times out of 20.
It appears that the honeymoon with Justin Trudeau continues, said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet
Research. The Liberals now enjoy the support of 49% of Canadians with the Conservatives holding fairly
steady at 30%, up 3%. The NDP and Thomas Mulcair keep testing new bottoms and remain at 14%. The Bloc
and Greens remain steady with 3% and 4% respectively. If an election were held today these numbers would
translate into a mega-majority for the Liberals.
We took a look at the emerging Conservative leadership race asking decided and leaning Conservative
Party Voters about their impressions of key Conservative Party personalities. With Conservatives beginning
to discuss the possibility of allowing their interim leader to run in the leadership we tested Rona Ambrose
among the current potential eld of candidates. Were she to enter, she would enter the race with a
signicant lead (26%). Her potential candidacy appears to negatively aect Lisa Raitt, and Kelly Leitch
whom see their support greatly diminished with her inclusion in the eld.
Possible contenders Peter McKay and Kevin O'Leary continue to have signicant support, coming in 2nd
and 3rd to Ambrose. Tony Clement and Maxime Bernier round out the top ve.
Approvals for Rona Ambrose among Conservative supporters are impressive, by far the highest among all
the contenders and possible contenders.
The Conservative leadership will not be decided by Conservative voters, it will be decided by members
who pay a fee. These results do act as a barometer for support but experienced candidates with established
networks of supporters can outperform public support signicantly. These numbers are instructive in that
they show the potential for all candidates at a particular moment and time among Conservative Party
voters, nished Maggi.
Note: Questions about the Conservative Party leadership race were only posed to decided and leaning
Conservative Party voters (refer to script page, A14).
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Ottawa: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

CPC NDP LPC BQ GPC

UD

Not Sure 10%

Green 4%

2%
BQ

NDP 13%

Conservative 27%

Liberal 45%

If a Federal Election were held today, which party

would you support?

A4

If a Federal Election were held today, which party

would you support?

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

Liberal

48%

44%

46%

39%

45%

45%

Conservative

22%

26%

29%

31%

28%

25%

NDP

15%

11%

10%

12%

12%

13%

BQ

3%

3%

2%

2%

2%

3%

Green

5%

5%

3%

2%

4%

4%

Undecided

8%

11%

9%

13%

9%

11%

Sample

594

1,264

1,506

1,634

2,435

2,563

Nat.

BC

AB

Prairies

ON

QC

ATL

Liberal

45%

39%

31%

44%

53%

41%

47%

Conservative

27%

25%

46%

31%

25%

19%

27%

NDP

13%

14%

8%

9%

11%

17%

10%

BQ

2%

0%

0%

0%

0%

10%

0%

Green

4%

11%

2%

2%

3%

2%

5%

Undecided

10%

12%

13%

14%

8%

10%

11%

4,998

875

856

674

1,188

896

509

Sample

CPC NDP LPC BQ GPC

Green 4%

BQ

3%

NDP 14%

Conservative 30%

Liberal 49%

A5

Decided and Leaning

A6

Decided and Leaning

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

Liberal

52%

47%

50%

46%

48%

50%

Conservative

23%

31%

31%

36%

32%

28%

NDP

16%

14%

12%

13%

13%

14%

BQ

3%

3%

2%

3%

2%

3%

Green

5%

5%

4%

3%

5%

4%

Sample

577

1,152

1,463

1,528

2,347

2,373

Nat.

BC

AB

Prairies

ON

QC

ATL

Liberal

49%

44%

35%

49%

56%

47%

52%

Conservative

30%

27%

52%

36%

29%

20%

30%

NDP

14%

18%

11%

11%

11%

19%

12%

BQ

3%

0%

0%

0%

0%

11%

0%

Green

4%

12%

3%

4%

4%

2%

6%

4,720

830

831

645

1,059

847

508

Sample

A7

Favourability Ratings

Ambrose 68%

11%

Bernier 18%

13%

Chong 19%

30%

44%
19%

Kenney 35%

12%

Leitch 12%

12%

26%

22%

42%

34%
15%

O'Leary 48%

25%

31%

MacKay 53%

18%

Raitt 14%

5% 27%

10

20

Approve

9%

39%

34%

Clement 30%

12%

22%

10%

19%

15%

54%
30

40

Disapprove

50

60

Not Sure

70

80

Not Familiar

90

100

1%

Undecided 10%

Someone Else 3%

Lisa Raitt

Kevin OLeary 20%

Peter MacKay 16%

Kellie Leitch 2%

Jason Kenney 6%

Tony Clement 7%

Michael Chong 3%

Maxime Bernier 6%

Rona Ambrose 26%

A8

Conservative Leadership with Ambrose as

Candidate [Conservative Decided/Leaning Only]

A9

Conservative Leadership with Ambrose as

Candidate [Conservative Decided/Leaning Only]

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

Rona Ambrose

28%

26%

28%

21%

22%

31%

Maxime Bernier

7%

6%

4%

7%

6%

6%

Michael Chong

1%

4%

3%

3%

2%

4%

Tony Clement

5%

7%

7%

9%

6%

8%

Jason Kenney

5%

4%

6%

9%

7%

5%

Kellie Leitch

1%

3%

2%

3%

1%

3%

Peter MacKay

14%

16%

16%

17%

19%

12%

Kevin OLeary

22%

19%

21%

18%

23%

17%

Lisa Raitt

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

Someone Else

4%

3%

3%

2%

4%

2%

Undecided

11%

11%

9%

10%

9%

11%

A10

Conservative Leadership with Ambrose as

Candidate [Conservative Decided/Leaning Only]

Nat.

BC

AB

Prairies

ON

QC

ATL

Rona Ambrose

26%

25%

26%

40%

23%

26%

25%

Maxime Bernier

6%

3%

4%

3%

6%

14%

3%

Michael Chong

3%

3%

2%

2%

5%

1%

2%

Tony Clement

7%

7%

4%

7%

10%

4%

5%

Jason Kenney

6%

6%

7%

4%

6%

6%

6%

Kellie Leitch

2%

1%

1%

3%

3%

2%

2%

Peter MacKay

16%

18%

13%

17%

15%

16%

25%

Kevin OLeary

20%

22%

19%

18%

22%

18%

17%

Lisa Raitt

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

Someone Else

3%

2%

3%

3%

2%

4%

4%

Undecided

10%

11%

19%

4%

7%

9%

8%

Undecided 16%

Someone Else 4%

Lisa Raitt 4%

Kevin OLeary 22%

Peter MacKay 23%

Kellie Leitch 3%

Jason Kenney 7%

Tony Clement 8%

Michael Chong 5%

Maxime Bernier 8%

A11

Conservative Leadership without Ambrose as

Candidate [Conservative Decided/Leaning Only]

A12

Conservative Leadership without Ambrose as

Candidate [Conservative Decided/Leaning Only]

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

Maxime Bernier

11%

7%

5%

10%

9%

7%

Michael Chong

3%

6%

6%

5%

5%

5%

Tony Clement

7%

8%

7%

10%

7%

9%

Jason Kenney

5%

5%

8%

10%

8%

6%

Kellie Leitch

1%

3%

3%

4%

3%

3%

Peter MacKay

18%

24%

27%

22%

25%

20%

Kevin OLeary

21%

22%

24%

20%

22%

22%

Lisa Raitt

3%

4%

4%

5%

3%

5%

Someone Else

5%

4%

4%

4%

4%

4%

Undecided

25%

18%

13%

9%

14%

18%

A13

Conservative Leadership without Ambrose as

Candidate [Conservative Decided/Leaning Only]

Nat.

BC

AB

Prairies

ON

QC

ATL

Maxime Bernier

8%

4%

4%

3%

9%

18%

4%

Michael Chong

5%

3%

3%

3%

10%

1%

2%

Tony Clement

8%

8%

5%

7%

13%

4%

5%

Jason Kenney

7%

7%

10%

5%

6%

7%

7%

Kellie Leitch

3%

3%

2%

4%

4%

2%

2%

Peter MacKay

23%

26%

21%

33%

19%

22%

35%

Kevin OLeary

22%

24%

22%

20%

24%

18%

20%

Lisa Raitt

4%

4%

2%

13%

4%

2%

4%

Someone Else

4%

4%

6%

4%

2%

5%

6%

Undecided

16%

16%

26%

9%

10%

21%

14%

A14

SCRIPT

If a Federal Election were held today, which party would you support?
Conservative Party led by Rona Ambrose
NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Bloc Qubcois led by Rheal Fortin
Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
[Following question was asked with and without Rona Ambrose as option to Conservative Party
Supporters (Decided or Leaning) Only]
The Conservative Party will be holding a leadership race to choose a new leader. Of the following
candidates, whom would you vote for if you could to be the next Conservative Leader?
Rona Ambrose
Maxime Bernier
Michael Chong
Tony Clement
Jason Kenney
Kellie Leitch
Peter MacKay
Kevin OLeary
Lisa Raitt
Someone Else
Undecided
[The following questions were asked to Conservative Party Supporters (Decided or Leaning) Only]
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Rona Ambrose?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Maxime Bernier?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Michael Chong?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Tony Clement?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Jason Kenney?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Kellie Leitch?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Peter MacKay?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Kevin OLeary?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Lisa Raitt?
Favourable
Unfavourable
Not Sure
Not Familiar with [Name]

CALGARY GREENWAY

WHITBY

Most Accurate Pollster of the Calgary

Greenway by election.

Most Accurate Pollster of the

Whitby by election.

SASKATCHEWAN

MANITOBA

Most Active Pollster of Saskatchewans

general election, top results within MoE.

Most Active Pollster of Manitobas general

election, top results within MoE.

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

CONNECT WITH US:

WEBSITE
mainstreetresearch.ca

TWITTER
@MainStResearch

FACEBOOK
fb.com/mainstresearch

2016 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved