Christian Raver

English 102
Padgett-TR 8:30-9:45
March 24, 2016
Annotated Bibliography
Inquiry Topic: Why are presidential candidates that do not fall in line with their respective party
establishment (e.g. Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders) becoming the most popular and even
presumptive nominees (Trump)?
Proposed Thesis: The preferences of the American voter have shifted from the previously
understood norms and the American political landscape is facing a potentially tremendous
change and even a possible realignment.
Cain, Sean A. "Polls and Elections: Leviathan's Reach? the Impact of Political Consultants on
the Outcomes of the 2012 Republican Presidential Primaries and Caucuses." Presidential
Studies Quarterly 45.1 (2015): 132-56. ProQuest. Web. 29 Feb. 2016.
This piece from Sean Cain, a published Ph.D. professor who focuses research on
American government and campaigns, examines the nature of consultants in the modern
presidential election, and makes an emphasis on the changing and more fractured nature
of consultancy. Cain argues that a new trend took hold of the primary process in 2012
where consultants fractured interest lead them to backing a variety of different
candidates which included advising them to run, creating the crowded field that was the
2012 Republican Primary race. Cain then creates an empirical model in which the
number of consultancy firms that any given candidate hires is related to their ranking in
primary polls, using primarily data from the FEC to do so. It is possible that the same
type of trend has both occurred and not occurred here in 2016. At the end of his piece,
Cain warns, Unless the [Republican] party imposes discipline on its contracted
consultants, their own financial and reputational incentives to seek presidential clients
risk extending the travails of future primary processes, which some could argue is
exactly what has happened in the 2016 campaign (Cain 153).

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Collingwood, Loren, Matt A. Barreto, and Todd Donovan. "Early Primaries, Viability and
Changing Preferences for Presidential Candidates." Presidential Studies Quarterly 42.2
(2012): 231-55. ProQuest. Web. 29 Feb. 2016.
The journal article by Loren Collingwood, a Ph.D. in political science specializing in
campaign methods and race and ethnic politics, looks at the relationship between early
primaries and their potential effect on the perception of candidates late in a given race.
The piece also considers if those primaries are the thing that determines the political
trajectory and viability of a candidate in the minds of the typical voter. The article uses a
panel study to determine voter preferences at two points during an election (2008) to
assess the voter opinion of a candidates at different point in the primary process and
identify a trend in changes of popularity. Looking at how quickly Barack Obama
surpassed Hillary Clinton to eventually become the Democratic nominee, Collingwood
comes to the conclusion that, An important consideration is how voters perceive
candidate viability (Collingwood 249). The same principal undoubtedly rings true in this
years primary process, with a vast number of polls from various agencies reflecting
voters putting importance of the electability of a candidate when weighing their options
at the polls.
Shepard, Steven. "5 Numbers That Explain Why Trump Won South Carolina." Politico.com.
Politico LLC, 20 Feb. 2016. Web. 29 Feb. 2016.
Steven Shepards article from Politico examines five specific exit polling questions asked
to voters leaving the South Carolina voters that may indicate why they voted the way the
did. The questions generally deal with determining the demographics of the voters in the
primary and identifying their voting preferences. The questions asked provided lead to a
5 groups of voters that the Shepard identifies as important in the current trajectory of the
election, including 52% of South Carolina Republican voters who felt betrayed by

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Republican politician (Shepard). An overwhelming number like that may slightly
explain the popularity of Donald Trump in the current electorate. Steven Shepard is the
chief polling analyst for Politico as well as an editor for the news agency. Politico itself is
indeed a commercial source and has spent the last nine years covering only political news
and publishing political opinions. The poll referenced in the article was conducted during
the South Carolina Republican primary by Edison Research, a respected polling agency,
and questioned over 2,000 voters during their exit from the state primary.
Stewart, Patrick A. "Polls and Elections: Do the Presidential Primary Debates Matter? Measuring
Candidate Speaking Time and Audience Response during the 2012
Primaries." Presidential Studies Quarterly 45.2 (2015): 361-81. ProQuest. Web. 29 Feb.
2016.
As of the last few national elections, crowded presidential fields are often narrowed by
primary debates in the early primary states. How an audience, both watching live and
watching at home, reacts to a certain candidate throughout the night can very well have
an effect on the trajectory that the candidate has going into the primary that the debate is
meant to preface. Stewarts piece on the question of whether or not debates matter
considers primarily the 2012 presidential primary debates for the Republican Party.
Stewart puts specific emphasis on the extent and tone of media coverage of a candidates
debate performance following the debate and how either positive or negative coverage
may cause heavy swings in the popularity of the candidate in any given primary state.
Stewart also provides state-by-state data from 2012 early primary states before and after
debates. The concepts developed and articulated by Stewart can easily be applied to the
2016 election on both sides of the aisle. One can look to see the tone and extent of media
coverage of the political outsiders like Sanders and Trump to see where it has helped and

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hurt them and others in their respective fields although, Stewarts concepts do tend to
favor working with a more crowded field like that of the Republicans.
Tankersley, Jim. "These Two Issues Explain Why Trump Is Dominating His Republican Rivals."
The Washington Post. 27 Jan. 2016. Web. 4 Feb. 2016.
Written by pundit Jim Tankersley for The Washington Post, this article serves as a
possible theory as to the popularity of Donald Trump with middle class republicans (a
majority of the republican electorate), and backs up the theory up with polling data based
around the question of whether or not the general public is concerned with the potential
of a decrease in their quality of living. The data indicates that a majority of voters
strongly concerned with a drop in the quality of living overwhelmingly support Donald
Trump. This is not the only reason that Trump is polling as consistently well as he is, but
it may be one of them. Also in the poll is a point of data that may be more enlightening as
to Trumps popularity now, as well as the popularity of candidates like Ben Carson earlier
in the race. Tankersley notes that, Trump also draws a majority of Republicans who say
they want a political outsider to be the next president, compared to 18 percent of those
who want someone with experience working in the system (Tankersley). Jim Tankersley
is a well-respected and known political pundit and analyst. But more importantly, the
Washington Post and ABC News conducted the poll featured in the article, two news
agencies with well-established polling resources and techniques.
Walsh, Joan. "The GOPs Base Problem." Nation 23 Nov. 2015: 3+. Political Science Complete.
Web. 11 Feb. 2016.
In an editorial, The GOPs Base Problem, political observer Joan Walsh notes that the
fading of the establishment strength is the result of too many cooks in the kitchen, at least
for the Republicans. Walsh makes an argument that everything that the GOP did to

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correct the failings of the 2012 campaign (specifically keeping polarizing figures from
commanding the attention of a campaign) were essentially obliterated as soon as the
partys candidates stopped getting their way in the early debates. This prompted them to
take control of the debates away from the Republican National Committee and in the
hands of the collective campaigns, meaning the candidates such as Donald Trump could
do and say whatever pleased him on a national debate stage. Walsh theorizes that this has
allowed Trump to gather almost the entire Republican base (aging, white, middle-class
voters who are angry with the system), while the rest of the field is trying to reach a much
more diverse block of voters to ensure the health and viability of the party. As she notes,
The trouble isnt the debates, or the candidates; its the partys rage-addicted voters.
Republicans need some new ones, but given their policies and their determination to
kowtow to their base, thats going to be a long time coming (Walsh). However, it is
possible that trying to secure votes for the future is losing the establishment candidates
votes in the present. Joan Walsh is the national affairs correspondent for The Nation, as
well as a political commentator for MSNBC. She has had years of experience on
covering and forming opinions on political races and national stories. In her writing and
commentary, there is a left-leaning (liberal) bias that is noticeable. However, if you want
to find some of the harshest criticism of one side of American politics, one of the best
things you can do is listen to what the other side is saying about them and understand
why they are saying it.