3 day Energy Management Course

Example of CUSUM Analysis using Multi variable Regression

A Boiler uses waste to generate process steam. Its Production and operation data for
2008 & 2009 is given below.Establish Multiple regression model for year 2008 &
calculate energy saved using CUSUM analsysis
A) Base Year (2008)
Production Data
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

Amount of waste
[ton]
15,222
14,546
14,062
11,952
8,482
12,816
14,374
13,541
12,038
9,821
15,235
14,895

Steam production
[ton]
45,507
46,249
42,978
38,976
28,899
47,877
53,646
51,711
41,061
30,683
46,674
47,110

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

Heating Value Waste

[MJ/kg]
10.0
10.5
10.3
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.3
12.5
11.5
10.7
10.2
10.4

Boiler Exit T
[C]
230.0
235.0
240.0
245.0
250.0
220.0
225.0
230.0
240.0
250.0
220.0
225.0

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

Amount of waste
[ton]
15,743
13,749
13,243
11,520
7,916
12,586
12,588
12,455
12,996
8,779
13,392
14,895

Heating Value Waste

[MJ/kg]
10.0
10.3
10.7
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
12.5
11.5
11.0
10.7
10.3

Operational Data

B) Year 2009
Operational Data

6008 - Module 2
Example Rate Schedule

- 1 / 17 -

Boiler Exit T
[C]
230.0
235.0
240.0
245.0
250.0
220.0
225.0
230.0
240.0
250.0
220.0
225.0

05/04/2016

Actual Data
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

6008 - Module 2
Example Rate Schedule

Steam production
[ton]
47,422
42,278
42,083
37,982
26,856
46,151
47,208
46,273
43,410
27,770
42,462
45,191

- 2 / 17 -

05/04/2016

Linear Regression Model

Steam Produced

60,000

50,000

f(x) = 2.9683050076x + 4616.3078980097

R = 0.7252657404

40,000

Column F

30,000

20,000

10,000

0
8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000
13,000
Amount of coal

14,000

15,000

16,000

Production Data
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

Amount of waste
[ton]
15,222
14,546
14,062
11,952
8,482
12,816
14,374
13,541
12,038
9,821
15,235
14,895

Steam production
[ton]
45,507
46,249
42,978
38,976
28,899
47,877
53,646
51,711
41,061
30,683
46,674
47,110

A1
A2
A3
Heating Value Waste
[MJ/kg]
10.0
10.5
10.3
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.3
12.5
11.5
10.7
10.2
10.4

Boiler Exit T
[C]
230.0
235.0
240.0
245.0
250.0
220.0
225.0
230.0
240.0
250.0
220.0
225.0

Calculated steam production

[ton]
15932.24
15272.4
14802.2
12709
9254.6
13500
15073.68
14255.8
12781.4
10592.2
15915.6
15590.68

1
2
3
Difference squared
874680177.826058
959569576.40363
793886202.490096
689968238.145404
385898413.550577
1181810975.21416
1487859740.95285
1402888587.35236
799720825.054219
403625948.989076
946078089.833166
993464143.601973
10919450919.4136

Production Data
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

Amount of waste
[ton]
15,222
14,546
14,062
11,952
8,482
12,816
14,374
13,541
12,038
9,821
15,235
14,895

Steam production
[ton]
45,507
46,249
42,978
38,976
28,899
47,877
53,646
51,711
41,061
30,683
46,674
47,110

A1
A2
A3
Heating Value Waste
[MJ/kg]
10.0
10.5
10.3
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.3
12.5
11.5
10.7
10.2
10.4

Boiler Exit T
[C]
230.0
235.0
240.0
245.0
250.0
220.0
225.0
230.0
240.0
250.0
220.0
225.0

Multiple Regression
45912.7441592001
45192.5714969906
42291.2922883591
38338.7064502683
29806.1452236275
48484.0130337209
53233.1569718013
50909.2044835705
41289.8757635862
30446.9187665446
48265.1848263967
47319.3366074327

2.7955701665
3878.8175300369
-154.0446571832
Difference squared
164439.754408619
1116717.52542244
471823.346960119
406457.301751125
823098.927021708
367885.072233679
170823.507921785
642802.847678267
52505.1896378632
55566.489783925
2531925.05993388
43844.3306639268
6847889.35341733

Comparison
60000

Steam

50000

40000

Actual
Multivariable

30000

Linear

20000

10000

0
1

7
Month

10

11

12

Production Data
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

Amount of waste
[ton]
15,222
14,546
14,062
11,952
8,482
12,816
14,374
13,541
12,038
9,821
15,235
14,895

Steam production
[ton]
45,507
46,249
42,978
38,976
28,899
47,877
53,646
51,711
41,061
30,683
46,674
47,110

A1
A2
A3
Heating Value Waste
[MJ/kg]
10.0
10.5
10.3
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.3
12.5
11.5
10.7
10.2
10.4

Boiler Exit T
[C]
230.0
235.0
240.0
245.0
250.0
220.0
225.0
230.0
240.0
250.0
220.0
225.0

Multiple Regression
45912.7441592001
45192.5714969906
42291.2922883591
38338.7064502683
29806.1452236275
48484.0130337209
53233.1569718013
50909.2044835705
41289.8757635862
30446.9187665446
48265.1848263967
47319.3366074327

2.7955701665
3878.8175300369
-154.0446571832
Difference squared
164439.754408619
1116717.52542244
471823.346960119
406457.301751125
823098.927021708
367885.072233679
170823.507921785
642802.847678267
52505.1896378632
55566.489783925
2531925.05993388
43844.3306639268
6847889.35341733

Actual

Multi

Linear

45,507
46,249
42,978
38,976
28,899
47,877
53,646
51,711
41,061
30,683
46,674
47,110

45912.7441592
45192.571497
42291.2922884
38338.7064503
29806.1452236
48484.0130337
53233.1569718
50909.2044836
41289.8757636
30446.9187665
48265.1848264
47319.3366074

45690.17
43866.55
42558.42
36866.08
27501.9
39197.41
43401.58
41153.14
37099.21
31115.46
45725.14
44806.85

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0
1

-2,000

-4,000

10

11

12

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.871157
R Square 0.758914
Adjusted R 0.732127
Standard E 4087.548
Observatio
11
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
1 4.7E+008 4.7E+008
9 1.5E+008 16708046
10 6.2E+008

F
Significance F
28.3311 0.000479

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept
2241.898 7804.274 0.287265 0.780414 -15412.6 19896.39 -15412.6 19896.39
15222.24 3.182833 0.597974 5.322696 0.000479 1.830122 4.535544 1.830122 4.535544

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
Predicted 45507.23244
Residuals
Standard Residuals
1 48540.66 -2291.337 -0.590888
2 46997.62 -4019.433 -1.036527
3 40283.12 -1306.869 -0.337014
4 29237.41 -338.5152 -0.087296
5 43033.08 4844.395 1.249267
6 47992.19 5654.274 1.458118
7
45340 6370.954 1.642935
8 40558.11 502.6235 0.129616
9 33499.86 -2817.218 -0.726501
10 50732.99 -4059.01 -1.046733
11 49649.81 -2539.864 -0.654978

PROBABILITY OUTPUT
Percentile
4.545455
13.63636
22.72727
31.81818
40.90909
50
59.09091
68.18182
77.27273
86.36364
95.45455

45507.23
28898.9
30682.64
38976.25
41060.74
42978.19
46249.32
46673.98
47109.95
47877.48
51710.95
53646.46

15222.24 Residual Plot

5000
0
8,000
-5000

4 5 5 0 7 .2 3 2 4 4

Residuals

10000

10,000

12,000
14,000
15222.24

16,000

Normal Probability Plot

100000
50000
0

20

40
60
80
100
Sample Percentile

120

Production Data
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

Amount of waste
[ton]
15,222
14,546
14,062
11,952
8,482
12,816
14,374
13,541
12,038
9,821
15,235
14,895

Steam production
[ton]
45,507
46,249
42,978
38,976
28,899
47,877
53,646
51,711
41,061
30,683
46,674
47,110

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

Amount of waste
[ton]
15,743
13,749
13,243
11,520
7,916
12,586
12,588
12,455
12,996
8,779
13,392
14,895

Heating Value Waste

[MJ/kg]
10.0
10.3
10.7
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
12.5
11.5
11.0
10.7
10.3

Operational Data

A1
A2
A3
Heating Value Waste
[MJ/kg]
10.0
10.5
10.3
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.3
12.5
11.5
10.7
10.2
10.4

Boiler Exit T
[C]
230.0
235.0
240.0
245.0
250.0
220.0
225.0
230.0
240.0
250.0
220.0
225.0

Boiler Exit T
[C]
230.0
235.0
240.0
245.0
250.0
220.0
225.0
230.0
240.0
250.0
220.0
225.0

Multiple Regression
45912.7441592001
45192.5714969906
42291.2922883591
38338.7064502683
29806.1452236275
48484.0130337209
53233.1569718013
50909.2044835705
41289.8757635862
30446.9187665446
48265.1848263967
47319.3366074327

Steam production
[ton]
47,422
42,278
42,083
37,982
26,856
46,151
47,208
46,273
43,410
27,770
42,462
45,191

Multi Regression
47368.6771019016
42187.9558086541
41554.9246761287
37131.02013835
28225.4180286945
47839.9136673645
49017.1503885466
47872.5443459361
43966.913755005
28698.6981401527
45051.7986605639
46931.454854429

2.7955701665
3878.8175300369
-154.0446571832
Difference squared
164439.754408619
1116717.52542244
471823.346960119
406457.301751125
823098.927021708
367885.072233679
170823.507921785
642802.847678267
52505.1896378632
55566.489783925
2531925.05993388
43844.3306639268
6847889.35341733

Actual

Multi

45,507
46,249
42,978
38,976
28,899
47,877
53,646
51,711
41,061
30,683
46,674
47,110

Linear

637831802.035117
4331543513.70798
1830116669.2696
1576573707.24377
3192650547.08638
1426959067.21889
662593217.069418
2493314953.93211
203658049.985256
215532274.656505
9820875307.21131
170064158.371974

Difference between
Multi & Actual
-54
-90
-528
-851
1,370
1,689
1,809
1,599
557
928
2,590
1,741

0
-54
-143
-672
-1,522
-153
1,536
3,345
4,944
5,501
6,429
9,019
10,760

45690.17
43866.55
42558.42
36866.08
27501.9
39197.41
43401.58
41153.14
37099.21
31115.46
45725.14
44806.85