VALORES DE CAUDAL MEDIO MENSUAL (MODELIZACIN

SITIO DE PRESA
AOS
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

ENE

FEB

MAR

ABR

MAY

JUN

153.7
229.6
146.6
83.4
51.0
116.3
49.0
28.6
158.6
73.5
14.7
21.8
33.0
16.4
11.5
29.6
43.3
58.0
30.0
41.0
46.5
58.4
87.7
36.4
51.2
58.4
76.8
73.5
16.1
16.5
16.3

134.7
192.6
150.3
59.7
79.9
126.4
65.7
16.8
102.0
74.1
20.3
64.8
29.6
0.4
17.8
65.2
27.8
75.3
69.6
27.3
64.8
90.1
83.2
33.5
66.1
61.7
73.1
22.9
15.6
16.6
15.8

152.0
243.2
135.0
111.2
72.1
149.9
105.3
84.1
91.4
84.3
43.7
86.3
63.6
41.7
81.7
71.3
22.9
96.8
79.9
50.8
64.3
72.0
81.3
99.1
103.6
106.6
70.2
56.7
16.0
16.7
16.5

191.4
233.6
131.3
99.9
88.7
109.9
70.0
87.1
92.7
96.5
72.4
89.2
63.0
65.9
85.8
78.5
44.9
64.6
111.2
77.9
73.9
93.1
80.3
91.5
86.5
108.6
78.8
80.6
15.8
16.7
16.3

225.0
199.9
131.5
82.6
104.0
128.1
56.1
88.6
87.6
103.8
84.0
63.6
85.1
48.8
66.7
45.7
70.1
96.3
85.4
56.7
62.0
94.7
80.0
69.4
87.3
75.8
62.7
124.3
15.7
16.4
16.1

255.5
162.6
146.1
105.3
102.4
132.6
96.1
78.1
101.9
143.3
140.4
85.9
91.3
33.5
88.9
55.0
44.8
64.6
105.7
39.0
68.6
67.9
97.7
81.5
88.3
54.7
53.0
89.6
15.6
15.7
15.5

62.2

62.7

82.9

87.0

84.3

87.8

dQ=

16.27

Cv=

0.24

Cs=

0.72

10

2.4
2.45

1.82
1.84

1.33
1.34

2.41

1.82

1.33

CURVA DE DURACIN GENERAL

dQ=[()^/
()]^,

Cs=3+3

PROBABILIDAD EN PORCENTAGES
Cs
0.01
0.1
1
0.7
5.28
4.1
2.82
0.8
5.5
4.24
2.89
Interpolaci

0.72

5.33

4.13

2.84

Qi=

155.53

136.03

114.94

108.04

98.49

90.48

CURVA DE DURACION GENERAL

175
150
125
100
Qi (m3/s)

75
50
25
0
0

10

20

CURVA DE VARIACIN ESTACIONAL

m

P (%)
1

1.61

4.84

8.06

11.29

14.52

17.74

20.97

24.19

27.42

10

30.65

11

33.87

12

37.10

13

40.32

14

43.55

15

46.77

16

50.00

17

53.23

18

56.45

19

59.68

20

62.90

21

66.13

22

69.35

23

72.58

24

75.81

25

79.03

AOS
1970
1974
1971
1972
1993
1983
1995
1991
1987
1985
1997
1977
1986
1989
1981
1984
1975
1973
1990
1994
1982
1979
1988
1980
1999

ENE
229.6
158.6
153.7
146.6
116.3
87.7
83.4
76.8
73.5
73.5
58.4
58.4
58.0
51.2
51.0
49.0
46.5
43.3
41.0
36.4
33.0
30.0
29.6
28.6
21.8

FEB
192.6
150.3
134.7
126.4
102.0
90.1
83.2
79.9
75.3
74.1
73.1
69.6
66.1
65.7
65.2
64.8
64.8
61.7
59.7
33.5
29.6
27.8
27.3
22.9
20.3

MAR
243.2
152.0
149.9
135.0
111.2
106.6
105.3
103.6
99.1
96.8
91.4
86.3
84.3
84.1
81.7
81.3
79.9
72.1
72.0
71.3
70.2
64.3
63.6
56.7
50.8

ABR
233.6
191.4
131.3
111.2
109.9
108.6
99.9
96.5
93.1
92.7
91.5
89.2
88.7
87.1
86.5
85.8
80.6
80.3
78.8
78.5
77.9
73.9
72.4
70.0
65.9

MAY
225.0
199.9
131.5
128.1
124.3
104.0
103.8
96.3
94.7
88.6
87.6
87.3
85.4
85.1
84.0
82.6
80.0
75.8
70.1
69.4
66.7
63.6
62.7
62.0
56.7

30

26

82.26

27

85.48

28

88.71

29

91.94

30

95.16

31

98.39

Tabla 2:
Prob %

2000
1998
1996
1978
1976
1992

16.5
16.4
16.3
16.1
14.7
11.5

17.8
16.8
16.6
15.8
15.6
0.4

43.7
41.7
22.9
16.7
16.5
16.0

64.6
63.0
44.9
16.7
16.3
15.8

Tabla de Caudales para las diferentes Probabilidades

ENE
FEB
MAR
ABR
MAY
JUN
5
10
20
30
50
70
80
90
95

158.36
149.44
84.69
73.50
49.00
29.92
20.20
16.22
14.77

149.520
129.72
85.27
74.34
64.80
27.70
19.55
16.28
15.61

151.895
140.96
105.69
97.26
81.30
64.16
48.67
20.40
16.51

188.395
119.24
102.51
92.78
85.80
73.60
65.51
33.62
16.27

196.480
129.46
103.86
89.82
82.60
63.42
56.52
33.98
16.07

56.1
48.8
45.7
16.4
16.1
15.7

JUL

161.775
144.42
113.77
102.00
88.30
62.68
50.54
26.36
15.60

160.430
142.00
99.17
88.96
78.90
57.44
45.41
27.48
15.16

Figura: Cur vas de variacin Estacional(Probabilidades)

250.00

200.00

150.00
Q (m3/s)
100.00

50.00

0.00
0

Meses

10

L (MODELIZACIN HIDROLGICA)
PRESA
JUL

AGO

SEP

OCT

NOV

DIC

Promedio

(Qi-Qm)^2

257.1
160.5
159.1
130.6
87.2
98.9
81.5
99.8
123.0
97.0
81.0
66.3
93.2
38.7
83.1
45.5
45.2
55.2
87.9
35.6
87.8
62.4
58.0
70.8
72.0
46.5
58.7
78.9
14.9
15.2
15.3

250.9
156.6
168.7
119.0
124.3
87.8
85.6
86.5
107.7
115.6
97.6
77.3
73.1
38.1
52.3
28.9
43.9
31.8
54.7
32.9
68.4
45.0
63.9
25.3
48.0
38.5
60.1
61.6
14.8
15.5
15.1

248.7
149.0
138.9
135.8
105.9
88.2
78.6
82.8
75.9
75.3
58.3
49.8
66.7
39.0
35.4
9.1
35.9
43.5
33.8
43.9
40.9
30.8
46.7
11.9
16.6
29.5
54.5
49.5
15.8
15.6
15.7

206.0
131.1
130.0
109.0
80.8
84.4
74.2
45.2
33.5
76.7
36.3
44.6
45.5
24.8
54.7
17.0
32.4
58.6
31.4
25.8
27.8
49.2
62.6
23.5
18.1
59.1
39.4
31.5
16.0
16.6
17.6

192.8
102.6
85.1
72.9
79.5
46.8
36.4
46.2
9.6
40.7
22.4
16.1
22.2
31.8
50.3
12.6
39.3
47.7
9.1
23.2
25.3
43.0
24.2
65.6
10.9
19.6
12.4
31.8
17.0
15.8
16.4

181.2
94.0
83.0
38.0
111.8
40.3
2.5
50.1
6.1
20.7
17.0
45.8
22.7
72.2
40.6
55.5
49.5
57.7
20.7
49.0
30.6
60.7
2.5
72.2
30.6
61.1
14.5
50.3
15.7
16.3
16.0

62.2
62.7
82.9
87.0
84.3
87.8
80.9
73.9
62.0
54.9
40.9
46.1

43.89
37.18
199.11
330.80
240.98
360.17
145.65
25.58
46.21
191.80
775.76
515.47

80.9

73.9

62.0

54.9

40.9

46.1

68.8

2912.59

25

50

75

80

90

95

99

99.9

0.59
0.58

-0.12
-0.13

-0.72
-0.73

-0.85
-0.86

-1.18
-1.17

-1.42
-1.38

-1.81
-1.74

-2.14
-2.02

0.59

-0.12

-0.722

-0.85

-1.18

-1.41

-1.79

-2.11

78.36

20

30

66.81

40

50

57.04

60

54.93

70

49.63

80

90

45.84

39.60

100

P (%)

JUN
255.5
162.6
146.1
143.3
140.4
132.6
105.7
105.3
102.4
101.9
97.7
96.1
91.3
89.6
88.9
88.3
85.9
81.5
78.1
68.6
67.9
64.6
55.0
54.7
53.0

JUL
257.1
160.5
159.1
130.6
123.0
99.8
98.9
97.0
93.2
87.9
87.8
87.2
83.1
81.5
81.0
78.9
72.0
70.8
66.3
62.4
58.7
58.0
55.2
46.5
45.5

AGO
250.9
168.7
156.6
124.3
119.0
115.6
107.7
97.6
87.8
86.5
85.6
77.3
73.1
68.4
63.9
61.6
60.1
54.7
52.3
48.0
45.0
43.9
38.5
38.1
32.9

SEP
248.7
149.0
138.9
135.8
105.9
88.2
82.8
78.6
75.9
75.3
66.7
58.3
54.5
49.8
49.5
46.7
43.9
43.5
40.9
39.0
35.9
35.4
33.8
30.8
29.5

OCT
206.0
131.1
130.0
109.0
84.4
80.8
76.7
74.2
62.6
59.1
58.6
54.7
49.2
45.5
45.2
44.6
39.4
36.3
33.5
32.4
31.5
31.4
27.8
25.8
24.8

NOV
192.8
102.6
85.1
79.5
72.9
65.6
50.3
47.7
46.8
46.2
43.0
40.7
39.3
36.4
31.8
31.8
25.3
24.2
23.2
22.4
22.2
19.6
17.0
16.4
16.1

DIC
181.2
111.8
94.0
83.0
72.2
72.2
61.1
60.7
57.7
55.5
50.3
50.1
49.5
49.0
45.8
40.6
40.3
38.0
30.6
30.6
22.7
20.7
20.7
17.0
16.3

34.42

44.8
39.0
33.5
15.7
15.6
15.5

AGO

45.2
38.7
35.6
15.3
15.2
14.9

SEP

168.095
137.22
110.07
86.76
61.60
42.82
32.57
21.38
15.12

31.8
28.9
25.3
15.5
15.1
14.8

OCT
148.495
137.04
84.42
75.42
46.70
35.08
25.63
15.66
12.09

131.045
117.40
77.93
59.80
44.60
30.68
24.41
17.36
16.62

5%
10%
20%
30%
50%
70%
80%
90%
95%
8

10

11

12

16.6
15.8
15.7
15.6
11.9
9.1

NOV
101.725
81.74
54.89
46.32
31.80
19.08
16.01
11.80
9.67

23.5
18.1
17.6
17.0
16.6
16.0

DIC
110.910
87.40
64.43
55.94
40.60
20.70
16.21
11.14
2.68

15.8
12.6
12.4
10.9
9.6
9.1

16.0
15.7
14.5
6.1
2.5
2.5