March Madness: Finding the Cinderella

March Madness season is historically one of the most-watched sporting events in the
world. Every year, millions of people submit their brackets in hopes of getting their predictions
correct. However, in NCAA history, no one has ever predicted a perfect bracket. Often the top
seeds fall unexpectedly, and you find yourself trying to figure out where your bracket went
wrong. Finding the correct upsets in the tournament is one of the hardest things to do. In 2014, I
did really well with my tournament bracket; I was in the top 50 in the world up until the Elite 8.

According to a study done by DePaul University, the chances of getting a perfect bracket
is one in 9.2 quintillion if you were to guess randomly. However, if you knew something about
basketball, like a one-seed has never lost in the first round, and often 5-seeds lose to 12-seeds,
then you would have a one in 128 billion chance. The biggest upset in basketball history,
according to the Elo and upset probability, was 2-seed Missouri vs.15-seed Norfolk State in
2012. The probability was 1.6% chance that Norfolk State would win. This years crazy upset
ranks third of all time, with 2-seed Michigan State falling to 15-seed Middle Tennessee. This
years Cinderella story was Syracuse, a 10-seed making it to the Final Four. Syracuse had a
1.3% chance of getting to the Final Four and 0.1% chance of winning it all.

A formula that I have come up with for calling an upset is points per game (PPG) plus
rebounds per game (RPG) plus assists per game (APG) times free throw percentage (FTP)
divided by opponent points per game (OPG) plus turnovers forced per game (TFG).
Mathematically, the formula looks like this:
PPG + RPG + APG x FTP/OPG + TFG

For example, in the game where 11-seed Gonzaga played 6-seed Seton Hall, the
formula for Gonzaga was 12.01 and Seton Hall was 11.1. Another matchup was 10-seed
Syracuse vs. 7-seed Dayton. Syracuses number was 14.76 and Dayton was 13.87. In fact,
Syracuses number was higher than everyone they faced except for UNC, which is the only
team that beat them.

When youre considering which upset to call or which team will progress in the tourney,
its essential to look at their personnel. For example, look at Notre Dame. Their best player,
Demetrius Jackson, supported by Zach Auguste and Steve Vasturia, can carry their team on
their backs when they are playing really well. Another example would be Syracuse. Michael
Gbinije, Trevor Cooney, and Malachi Richardson lead their team and played well the entire
tournament.

To find the Cinderella, you have to look at every teams seed, even if you think a team
should be seeded higher or lower than it is. An example of this problem was Syracuse this year;
many people said that Syracuse should not have even been in the tournament, yet they came in
as a 10-seed. They had an easy road to the Elite 8 and made it to the Final Four. A good
example of a Cinderella is Gonzaga. They were an 11-seed; many thought they deserved to be
seeded higher. They upset 6-seed Seton Hall and then blew out 3-seed Utah, but eventually
they fell to Syracuse in the Sweet 16.

A Syracuse player on the left and a Gonzaga player on the right.

You should also look at strength of schedule and the actual statistics for each team, like
their points per game. I value the statistics a lot. For example, I picked 13-seed Hawaii to upset
4-seed California because I saw that they could really put points on the board whenever they
needed to, which automatically gives them a good chance. They won 77-66. I also hung my hat
on Indiana. They ranked 10th in the country in points per game, with 82.6. They made it to the
Sweet 16 by beating 4-seed Kentucky and 12-seed Chattanooga, averaging 86 points per game
in the tournament.

Indiana players walking onto the court in the tournament.

Some winning teams are mixed examples, with both strength of schedule and field goal
percentage. An example of a mixed team is 6-seed Notre Dame; I picked Notre Dame for the
Elite 8, and they made it. I picked them because I knew that they had a tough schedule in the
ACC, they had beaten some very good teams, and they were ranked 34th in field goal
percentage (the percentage of shots that you make for all the shots you take). They also put up
over 2000 shots for the year, so their field goal percentage proved they made good shots and
gave themselves a chance for offensive rebounds. Statistics can show a lot about a teams
identity.

Notre Dame in a huddle in the tournament.

You may also pick an upset just based on the higher seed not being very good. For
example, I picked 6-seed Arizona to lose to 11-seed Wichita State because I thought Arizona
wasnt a good team and couldnt be trusted. I also picked 12-seed Yale to upset 5-seed Baylor
because Baylor wasnt that great, and historically, they always lose early in the tournament. In
both these cases, the teams I that I picked are not great teams, but I believed they would beat
their opponents based off that the higher seed wasnt a strong team.

Every year, people across the country try to find the Cinderella team, and they are
unsuccessful. Year after year, teams like Florida Gulf Coast and Syracuse go far in the
tournament without any prediction. Some people may discredit my methods, but Ive analyzed
the Cinderella factor and developed a formula to solve the question. While another person might
use different methods for predicting brackets, my method at least shows several important
factors to consider. Upsets in the tournament make it more fun to watch. Calling the upsets is
even more satisfying. Using my formula and the factors listed, you should be able to do better
on your brackets next year.