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Estimar la funcin de Costos de Mantencin y Reparacin, de un equipo tipo, de la flota formada por
los equipos # 11 al #18, a partir de los antecedentes recopilados para los perodos 1 al 10 que se
presenta a continuacin:
Gasto Anual Mantencin y Reparacin [US$nominales]
Perodo
N Equipo
#11
#12
#13
#14
#15
#16
#17
#18
628.0
1,173.0
96.0
3,569.0
--------
20,590.0
35,582.2
16,170.0
100,362.1
38,391.6
32,431.0
37,344.5
60,139.0
54,615.0
--------57,634.1
26,166.7
39,123.9
48,204.4
93,364.0
--------118,588.3
--------60,562.0
50,913.0
46,359.4
53,251.3
73,802.0
--------51,063.3
7
--------52,573.9
48,141.3
72,040.3
40,263.8
62,242.0
---------
8
---------58,608.2
46,851.6
65,630.7
100,026.9
91,114.0
---------
9
--------67,770.7
49,348.4
122,938.0
52,971.1
61,137.0
10
32,243.8
112,000.0
45,720.0
-----------------
---------
--------1,236
1,106
903
859
2,610
--------963
--------1,047
917
1,270
658
2,679
---------
--------1,150
751
878
1,412
2,250
---------
---------
---------
---------
652
1,053
2,704
2,299
953
1,075
981
1,358
3,165
--------1,273
712
978
999
3,071
--------2,073
9
--------1,164
764
1,490
784
2,254
10
506
819
1,677
EJERCICIO N3 DESARROLLO
Enunciado
Estimar la funcin de Costos de Mantencin y Reparacin, de un equipo tipo, de la flota formada por los equipos # 11 al #18, a partir de
los antecedentes recopilados para los perodos 1 al 10, que se presenta a continuacin:
#11
#12
#13
#14
#15
#16
#17
#18
628
1,173
96
3,569
20,590
35,582
32,431
37,345
60,139
16,170
100,362
38,392
54,615
10
--------
--------
--------
--------
--------
26,167
39,124
48,204
60,562
50,913
46,359
53,251
52,574
48,141
72,040
40,264
58,608
46,852
65,631
100,027
67,771
49,348
122,938
52,971
93,364
73,802
62,242
91,114
61,137
--------
--------
--------
--------
--------
57,634
118,588
51,063
32,244
112,000
45,720
4
--------
652
1,053
2,704
2,299
---------------
#18
953
10
--------
--------
--------
--------
--------
--------
1,075
981
1,358
3,165
712
978
999
3,071
1,236
1,106
903
859
2,610
1,047
917
1,270
658
2,679
1,150
751
878
1,412
2,250
1,164
764
1,490
784
2,254
819
1,677
--------
--------
--------
--------
--------
1,273
2,073
963
9
131.900
222.570
418.000
1.027
1.138
10
135.400
242.480
400.000
1.000
1.000
10
506
1. Correccin Monetaria
Factores de Correccin Monetaria
Perodo
IPM
IPC
TC
Fact. IPM
Fact. IPC-TC
1
115.400
59.730
183.000
1.173
1.857
% M. Nacional
2
111.000
70.100
204.000
1.220
1.764
49.60%
4
121.400
95.930
247.000
1.115
1.561
115.900
85.130
238.000
1.168
1.695
5
125.800
116.470
290.000
1.076
1.509
% M. Extranjera
6
132.100
148.300
342.000
1.025
1.398
7
129.100
175.970
372.000
1.049
1.282
8
131.000
198.310
384.000
1.034
1.174
50.40%
Fact. Correccin
Donde
FACT IPC-TC(per X)=
Gasto Anual Mantencin y Reparacin Corregido [US$ a moneda del perodo 10]
Perodo
N Equipo
#11
#12
#13
#14
#15
#16
#17
#18
10
#11
#12
#13
#14
1,075
981
712
978
1,236
1,106
903
1,047
917
1,270
1,150
751
878
1,164
764
1,490
506
652
#15
#16
#17
1,053
2,704
2,299
1,358
3,165
999
3,071
859
2,610
658
2,679
1,412
2,250
784
2,254
819
1,677
#18
953
1,273
2,073
963
Perodo
N Equipo
#11
#12
10
#13
#14
#15
#16
#17
#18
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Cos to Unitario
Hormetro
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Ho r metro
Equipo #12
Costo
Unitario
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,236
0
0
0.00
2,283
3,433
0.00
0.00
4,597
0.00
60
C os to [US$/Hro rmetro ]
Hormetro
Cos to Unitario
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Ho r metro
Equipo #13
Costo
Unitario
0
0
0
1,075
0
0
0.00
1,787
2,893
0.00
0.00
3,810
4,561
5,325
5,831
80
70
C os to [US$/Hormetro ]
Hormetro
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
60
Co s to Unitario
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Hormetro
Equipo #14
Costo
Unitario
0
0
0.0
0.0
2,611
0.0
3,514
4,784
0.0
0.0
5,662
0.0
7,152
0.0
100
0
652
1,633
90
80
Costo Unit ario
Cos to [US$/Hormetro]
Hormetro
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Ho r metro
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6,339
7,123
0.00
0.00
7,942
0.00
160
0
1,053
2,411
3,410
4,269
4,927
140
Hormetro
120
100
80
Cos to Unitario
60
40
20
0
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Ho r metro
Equipo #16
Costo
Unitario
0
0
2,704
5,869
8,940
11,550
14,229
16,479
18,733
20,410
0
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
50
45
C os to [US$/Hormetro]
Hormetro
40
35
Co sto Unitario
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Ho r metro
Equipo #17
Costo
Unitario
0
0
0
0
2,299
0.00
70
60
Hormetro
50
40
Cos to Unitario
30
20
10
0
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Ho r metro
Equipo #18
0
0
0.00
2,226
4,299
5,262
0.00
0.00
0.00
80
70
Hormetro
60
50
Cos to Unitario
40
30
20
10
0
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Hormetro
4. Validacin Informacin
4,000
5,000
6,000
Perodo
N Equipo
#12
#13
1
0.00
2
0.00
0.00
0.00
#14
#15
#17
0.00
0.00
0.00
#18
3
0.00
4
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6
0.00
7
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
9
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
10
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
#12
#13
#14
#15
652
1,053
1,075
981
1,358
712
978
999
1,236
1,106
903
859
#17
#18
2,299
953
1,273
2,073
963
8
1,047
917
1,270
658
9
1,150
751
878
1,412
10
1,164
764
1,490
784
506
Hormetro [horas]
Perodo
N Equipo
#12
10
#13
#14
#15
#17
#18
0
0
0
0
0
Costo Eq. 14
Costo Eq. 15
Costo Eq. 17
Costo Eq. 18
[US$/hr]
[US$/hr]
[US$/hr]
[US$/hr]
[US$/hr]
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
0
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
0
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
0
0
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
0
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
0
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
0
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
0
0
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
0
0.00
0.00
80
Costo Eq. 13
Costo Eq. 14
70
Costo Eq. 15
Costo Eq. 17
60
Costo Eq. 18
50
40
30
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Ho rmetro
Horas Acumuladas
[hr]
Costos Flota
[US$/hr]
f(x) = N aN ln(x)
R = NaN
0
100
90
80
70
60
Costos Flota
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Hormetro
Horas Acumuladas
[hr]
0
0
0
0
0
Costos Flota
[US$/hr]
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
0
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
0
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
f(x) = NaN x^
ln(x)
6 + NaN x^ 5 + NaN x^4 + NaN x^3 + NaN x^2 + NaN x + N aN
R = N
0 aN
90.00
80.00
Co s to [US$ /Hormetro ]
70.00
60.00
50.00
Costos Flota
Polynomial (Costos Flota )
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Ho r metro
Horas Acumuladas
[hr]
0
0
0
Costos Flota
[US$/hr]
0.00
0.00
0.00
7,000
8,000
0
0
0.00
0.00
0
0
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
0
0
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
0
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
0
0.00
0.00
f(x) = NaN x^
ln(x)
6 + NaN x^5 + NaN x^4 + NaN x^3 + NaN x^2 + NaNx + N aN
R = Na
0 N
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
Costos Flota
Polynomial (Costos Flota )
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Ho r me tro
7. Conclusiones
6,000
7,000
8,000
EJERCICIO N3 RESOLUCION
Enunciado
Estimar la funcin de Costos de Mantencin y Reparacin, de un equipo tipo, de la flota formada por los equipos # 11 al #18, a partir de
los antecedentes recopilados para los perodos 1 al 10, que se presenta a continuacin:
#11
#12
#13
#14
#15
#16
#17
#18
628
1,173
96
3,569
20,590
35,582
32,431
37,345
60,139
16,170
100,362
38,392
54,615
10
--------
--------
--------
--------
--------
26,167
39,124
48,204
60,562
50,913
46,359
53,251
52,574
48,141
72,040
40,264
58,608
46,852
65,631
100,027
67,771
49,348
122,938
52,971
93,364
73,802
62,242
91,114
61,137
--------
--------
--------
--------
--------
57,634
118,588
51,063
32,244
112,000
45,720
--------
652
1,053
2,704
2,299
---------------
#18
953
10
--------
--------
--------
--------
--------
--------
1,075
981
1,358
3,165
712
978
999
3,071
1,236
1,106
903
859
2,610
1,047
917
1,270
658
2,679
1,150
751
878
1,412
2,250
1,164
764
1,490
784
2,254
819
1,677
--------
--------
--------
--------
--------
1,273
2,073
963
131.000
198.310
384.000
1.034
1.174
9
131.900
222.570
418.000
1.027
1.138
10
135.400
242.480
400.000
1.000
1.000
1.103
1.082
506
1. Correccin Monetaria
Factores de Correccin Monetaria
Perodo
IPM
IPC
TC
Fact. IPM
Fact. IPC-TC
1
115.400
59.730
183.000
1.173
1.857
% M. Nacional
2
111.000
70.100
204.000
1.220
1.764
4
121.400
95.930
247.000
1.115
1.561
115.900
85.130
238.000
1.168
1.695
49.60%
Fact. Correccin
5
125.800
116.470
290.000
1.076
1.509
% M. Extranjera
1.513
1.490
6
132.100
148.300
342.000
1.025
1.398
7
129.100
175.970
372.000
1.049
1.282
1.210
1.164
50.40%
1.429
1.336
1.291
1.000
Donde
FACT IPC-TC(per X)=
Gasto Anual Mantencin y Reparacin Corregido [US$ a moneda del perodo 10]
Perodo
N Equipo
#11
#12
#13
#14
#15
#16
#17
#18
1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
935.6
1,747.5
0.0
137.2
0.0
0.0
29,431.3
50,861.3
23,113.4
143,457.8
54,877.0
4,769.2
0.0
43,337.5
49,903.4
80,363.7
72,982.0
77,016.4
0.0
33,784.3
50,513.5
62,237.5
120,543.7
73,279.3
61,604.1
56,094.3
64,433.5
89,299.6
61,207.7
56,047.1
83,870.9
46,876.0
72,463.5
64,653.3
51,684.0
72,400.2
110,344.1
100,511.9
153,111.3
61,786.0
0.0
0.0
10
0.0
0.0
32,243.8
0.0
112,000.0
45,720.0
0.0
0.0
73,332.0
53,398.0
133,026.3
57,317.9
66,153.9
0.0
0.0
10
#11
#12
#13
#14
1,075
981
712
978
1,236
1,106
903
1,047
917
1,270
1,150
751
878
1,164
764
1,490
506
652
#15
#16
#17
1,053
2,704
2,299
1,358
3,165
999
3,071
859
2,610
658
2,679
1,412
2,250
784
2,254
819
1,677
#18
953
1,273
2,073
963
Perodo
N Equipo
#11
#12
#13
#14
#15
#16
#17
45.14
48.30
8.55
62.40
#18
57.58
10
59.29
58.46
56.22
63.00
40.31
50.87
59.18
23.06
47.45
51.65
62.30
39.25
55.70
62.12
75.01
34.21
61.12
66.04
71.24
27.05
68.82
82.46
78.15
44.67
69.89
89.28
73.11
29.35
60.50
73.86
64.16
63.72
136.75
27.26
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Cos to Unitario
Hormetro
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Hor metro
Equipo #12
Costo
Unitario
0
0
0
0
0
1,236
0
0
59.29
2,283
3,433
58.46
56.22
4,597
63.00
70
60
Co s to Unitario
Co s to [US$/Hro r metro]
Hormetro
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Hormetro
Equipo #13
Costo
Unitario
0
0
0
1,075
0
0
40.31
1,787
2,893
47.45
55.70
3,810
4,561
5,325
5,831
80
70
Co s to [US$ /Hormetro ]
Hormetro
61.12
68.82
69.89
63.72
60
Co sto Unitario
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Ho r metro
Equipo #14
Costo
Unitario
0
0
45.1
50.9
2,611
51.6
3,514
4,784
62.1
66.0
5,662
82.5
7,152
89.3
100
0
652
1,633
90
80
C ost o Uni ta rio
Cos to [US$/Hormetro]
Hormetro
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Ho r metro
0
48.30
59.18
62.30
75.01
71.24
6,339
7,123
78.15
73.11
7,942
136.75
160
C os to [US$/Hormetro]
Hormetro
140
120
100
80
Cos to Unitario
60
40
20
0
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Ho r metro
Equipo #16
Costo
Unitario
0
0
2,704
5,869
8,940
11,550
14,229
16,479
18,733
20,410
0
0
8.55
23.06
39.25
34.21
27.05
44.67
29.35
27.26
50
45
40
Hormetro
Co sto Unitario
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Ho r metro
Equipo #17
Costo
Unitario
Hormetro
2,299
62.40
70
0
0
60
50
Co sto Unitario
40
30
20
10
0
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Hormetro
Equipo #18
0
0
57.58
2,226
4,299
5,262
60.50
73.86
64.16
80
70
Hormetro
60
50
Co sto Unitario
40
30
20
10
0
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Hormetro
4. Validacin Informacin
4,000
5,000
6,000
Perodo
N Equipo
#12
#13
1
0.00
2
0.00
0.00
0.00
#14
#15
#17
0.00
0.00
0.00
#18
3
0.00
4
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
45.14
48.30
62.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
5
0.00
6
0.00
0.00
40.31
0.00
47.45
50.87
59.18
51.65
62.30
0.00
0.00
57.58
60.50
59.29
55.70
62.12
75.01
0.00
73.86
7
0.00
58.46
61.12
66.04
71.24
0.00
64.16
8
0.00
9
0.00
63.00
69.89
56.22
68.82
82.46
78.15
10
0.00
0.00
63.72
89.28
73.11
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
#12
#13
#14
#15
652
1,053
1,075
981
1,358
712
978
999
1,236
1,106
903
859
#17
#18
2,299
953
1,273
2,073
963
8
1,047
917
1,270
658
9
1,150
751
878
1,412
10
1,164
764
1,490
784
506
Hormetro [horas]
Perodo
N Equipo
#12
#13
#14
#15
#17
0
0
0
#18
0
0
0
652
1,053
2,299
953
10
1,236
2,283
3,433
4,597
1,075
1,633
2,411
1,787
2,611
3,410
2,893
3,514
4,269
3,810
4,784
4,927
4,561
5,662
6,339
5,325
7,152
7,123
2,226
4,299
5,262
5,831
1,236
2,283
3,433
4,597
1,075
Costo Eq. 14
Costo Eq. 15
Costo Eq. 17
Costo Eq. 18
[US$/hr]
[US$/hr]
[US$/hr]
[US$/hr]
[US$/hr]
56.22
63.00
40.31
1,787
2,893
3,810
47.45
55.70
61.12
4,561
5,325
5,831
652
68.82
69.89
63.72
45.14
1,633
2,611
3,514
4,784
50.87
51.65
62.12
66.04
5,662
7,152
1,053
82.46
89.28
48.30
2,411
3,410
4,269
59.18
62.30
75.01
4,927
6,339
7,123
71.24
78.15
73.11
2,299
953
2,226
4,299
62.40
57.58
60.50
73.86
5,262
64.16
80
Costo Eq. 13
Costo Eq. 14
70
Costo Eq. 15
Costo Eq. 17
60
Costo Eq. 18
50
40
30
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Ho rmetro
Horas Acumuladas
[hr]
652
953
Costos Flota
[US$/hr]
45.14
57.58
1,053
1,075
1,236
48.30
40.31
59.29
1,633
1,787
2,226
50.87
47.45
60.50
2,283
2,299
2,411
2,611
58.46
62.40
59.18
51.65
2,893
3,410
3,433
55.70
62.30
56.22
3,514
3,810
4,269
62.12
61.12
75.01
4,299
4,561
4,597
73.86
68.82
63.00
4,784
4,927
5,262
5,325
5,662
5,831
6,339
66.04
71.24
64.16
69.89
82.46
63.72
78.15
7,123
7,152
73.11
89.28
90.00
80.00
f(x)
= - 7.69362279879458E-021x^6 + 2.20464027370446E -016x^ 5 - 2.40532189803318E -012x^ 4 + 1.26798710098721E-008x^ 3 - 3.36062415516258E-005x^ 2 + 0.0465702717x + 26.5930811726
R = 0.7276988473
f(x) = 13.9076365187 ln(x) - 48.8215665132
70.00
R = 0.6636863169
60.00
Costos Flota
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Hormetro
Horas Acumuladas
Costos Flota
[hr]
803
1,003
[US$/hr]
51.36
52.94
1,064
1,156
1,435
44.31
49.80
55.08
1,710
49.16
2,007
2,255
2,291
2,355
2,511
2,752
53.97
59.48
60.43
60.79
55.41
53.67
3,152
3,422
3,474
3,662
4,040
4,284
4,430
4,579
4,691
4,856
5,095
5,294
5,494
5,747
6,085
6,731
7,138
59.00
59.26
59.17
61.62
68.06
74.43
71.34
65.91
64.52
68.64
67.70
67.03
76.18
73.09
70.94
75.63
81.19
90.00
Co s to [US$ /Hormetro ]
80.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Ho r metro
Horas Acumuladas
[hr]
886
1,027
1,121
Costos Flota
[US$/hr]
50.34
48.73
49.30
7,000
8,000
1,315
1,552
50.16
52.54
1,882
2,099
2,269
52.94
55.47
60.45
2,331
2,440
2,638
2,971
3,245
3,452
60.01
57.74
55.51
56.55
58.07
60.21
3,586
3,864
4,126
4,376
59.82
66.08
70.00
72.56
4,486
4,647
4,769
68.56
65.95
66.76
4,991
5,171
5,416
5,606
5,944
6,431
67.15
68.43
72.17
72.03
74.78
71.66
6,871
0
80.18
0.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
Costos Flota
Polynomial (Costos Flota)
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Ho r me tro
7. Conclusiones
Al comparar los coeficientes de correlacin calculados en cada regresin, realizada para cada caso de
suavizacin de datos (tablas de Costos aplicando promedios mviles), se obtiene que el mejor modelo
obtenido es:
y = 3E-20x 6 - 7E-16x 5 + 6E-12x 4 - 2E-08x3 + 5E-05x 2 - 0,0401x + 60,814
que presenta un coeficiente de correlacin (R 2) de 0,9237 y que adems se estima que refleja mejor la
realidad de los costos de Mantencin y Reparacin del tipo de equipo en cuestin.