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While we now have this knowledge of student GPA differences between majors, our
analysis to this point has only been considering GPA relative to other majors.
However, we dont have an idea of what really constitutes a good GPA relative to
all Kelley students. We investigate this matter in the following simulation of an
employer and the probabilities of that employer hiring a random Kelley student
based on the jobs GPA cutoff.
Simulation Model
As we mentioned before, we generated a simulation in order to discover the
possibility that an employer would hire a random student in Kelley based on their
own GPA cutoff. As seen in Appendix C, the distribution of the independent variable
appears relatively normal. The independent variable is the average GPA of all
students in a specific class, and because the selection of students varies among
different classes, different classes have varying difficulties, and we have data
spanning 4051 classes, we assume that the GPA can therefore represent the GPA of
an individual Kelley student. The scatter plot of the student GPAs returns observably
a normal distribution with a mean of 3.40 and a standard distribution of 0.20. The
numbers range between 2.34 and 3.92.
The simulation randomly pulls out a GPA from the student GPA distribution. If the
students GPA is higher than the employee cutoff GPA, it returns a 1, which means
the company will hire the student, and if the student scores lower, it returns 0,
which means the student will not be hired. We simulated 1000 trials that ranged
from 3.0 to 4.0 cutoffs, and discovered the probabilities of being hired as shown in
Appendix D. About 97.70% of Kelley students will have GPAs above 3.0, which
means that if the employee cutoff GPA is 3.0 almost all students will get hired, and
as the GPA cutoff level gets higher, fewer students are able to fit into the range.
The dependent variable we simulated here is the dummy variable of getting hired or
not. If the cutoff GPA is 3.3, the chance of getting hired will be 69.60%; if cutoff GPA
is 3.7, the chance of getting hired will only be 6.60%. On average, it is hard to get a
GPA higher than 3.7. Therefore, it is important to optimize the choice of classes and
professors in order to maximize the chance of getting a higher GPA during time in
Kelley and getting hired.
Optimization Model
In accomplishing our goal of finding the optimal path for Kelley students by
determining which instructors will maximize their expected GPA, we use Solver for
our optimization model. Based on our final regression model, our optimization
model is applied to each of the independent variables in our final regression that
represent different majors. Those variables are real estate, finance, accounting,
BEPP, entrepreneurship, and information systems. The optimization model for each
variable can be seen in each of their respective worksheet within the file
Appendix A
Optimal Path for an Accounting Major at the Kelley School of Business
Prerequisite Courses:
Subject and
Course
BUS-A 100
BUS-A 201
BUS-A 202
BUS-C 104
BUS-C 204
BUS-D 270
BUS-D 271
BUS-G 202
BUS-J 375
BUS-K 201
BUS-K 303
BUS-L 201
BUS-L 375
BUS-T 175
BUS-T 275
INSTRUCTOR NAME
Winston,Vivian
Kim,Yoon Hoo
Gosalia,Pranay
Dutton,Emily R
Watson,Carol A
Harrison,David Aron
Garcia,P. Roberto
Kreft,Steven Francis
Chin,M.K.
Thompson,Alaina
Paige
Valencic,Taryn Renee
Engber,Michael David
Fort,Timothy L
Sklar,Pamela S.
Irvin,Sally J.
AVG SECT
AVG STDNT CUM
GPA
GPA
2.9824
3.171509091
3.008
3.362
3.098333333
3.4395
3.85
3.635
3.905666667
3.34
3.374142857
3.420571429
3.771
3.5135
3.110764706
3.421
3.668333333
3.397666667
3.209
3.79825
3.204
3.7815
3.809333333
3.997
3.297
3.46475
3.247
3.491625
3.217333333
3.4585
Major Courses:
Subject and
Course
BUS-A 311
BUS-A 312
BUS-A 325
BUS-A 329
BUS-A 337
BUS-A 424
BUS-C 301
INSTRUCTOR NAME
Tiller,Mikel G.
Quay,James Bothwell
Pomeroy,Don
Hite,Peggy A.
Hsieh,Christine J
Kane,Shannon
Elizabeth
Brimm,David Robert
3.3615
3.4505
Appendix B
Kitchen Sink Regression Results:
Variable
Intercept
AVG SECT GPA
Real Estate
Finance
Accounting
Entrepreneurshi
p
BEPP
Management
Information
Systems
Operations
Supply Chain
Marketing
Sales
Coefficient
s
2.26
0.34
0.02
0.08
0.11
-0.12
Standard
Error
0.06
0.02
0.05
0.05
0.03
0.03
t Stat
P-value
39.14
20.92
0.49
1.71
3.94
-3.92
0.00
0.00
0.62
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.05
-0.06
-0.11
0.03
0.03
0.04
1.56
-2.05
-3.05
0.12
0.04
0.00
0.10
-0.07
-0.08
0.01
0.07
0.07
0.04
0.05
1.44
-0.99
-1.92
0.14
0.15
0.32
0.05
0.89
Coefficient
s
0.28
Standard
Error
0.56
t Stat
0.51
P-value
0.61
0.94
-0.23
-0.22
-0.34
-0.18
0.18
0.17
0.06
0.06
0.04
0.05
0.04
5.70
-3.65
-3.42
-7.64
-3.67
4.94
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.05
1.82
0.07
Major
Pre-Requisites
Real Estate
Finance
Accounting
BEPP
Entrepreneurship
Information
Systems
Regression
Prediction
3.2052001
3.289991996
3.206465718
3.325461952
3.638684342
3.564868826
Appendix C
Simulation Model
Appendix D
Simulation Model
PROBABILITY OF HIRING
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Hiring
Probability Distribution Based on GPA: