ROSTOW : THE CRITIQUE

THE ATTACK WAS BROAD, INTENSE [AND] PUBLICISED (SUPPLE)

IT SURVIVES AS A STRAW MAN FOR TEACHERS OF ECONMICS AND
ECONOMIC HISTORY (SUPPLE).
1)

TH BROAD CRITIQUE
a)

FALSE UNIFORMITY IN STAGES PROGRESSION

b)

HOW ESSNTIAL WERE THE IDENTIFIED PRECONDITIONS?

a) + b) NEXT LECTURE
c)

HOW DOES A COUNTRY MOVE FROM ONE STAGE TO

ANOTHER?

d)

THE TAKE OFF:

i)

WHAT DOES INDUSTRIALISATION TAKING HOLD

MEAN?

ii)

HOW FAR MUST INDUSTRIALISATION PROCEED BEFORE

IT TAKES HOLD?

iii)

WHAT IS A DECISIVE BREAK-THROUGH FOR THE

FORCES OF MODERNISATION?

iv)

WHAT IS A SUBSTANTIAL MANUFACTURING SECTOR?

v)

WHAT IS A HIGH RATE OF GROWTH?

vi)

WHAT IS MEANT BY STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN THE

ECONOMY?

IS IT:
a)

A % CHANGE IN OUTPUT DISTRIBUTION AMONG VARIOUS

INDSTRIES?

b)

A % CHANGE IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF INPUTS (LABOUR, CAPITAL)?

c)

A MEANS OF DIFFERENTIATING BETWEEN TEMPORARY OR

PERMANENT CHANGES?

ROSTOW DOEES NOT ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS

E)

THE NATION STATE AND THE REGION AS THE VEHICLE FOR

INDUSTRIALISATION:-

THE POLLARD PERSPECTIVE ON C19 EUROPE.

FOCUSSING ON CROSSBORDER MOVEMENTS OF CAPITAL/LABOUR + TRANSPORT + TRADE. (N.E.
FRANCE, S. BELGIUM, N.W. GERMANY
2.

THE SPECIFIC CRITIQUE

a)

THE BRITISH CASE WITH RFERENCE TO TAKE-OFF

i)

10% NET INVESTMENT NOT ACHIEVED UNTIL POST-1830

REASONS :NEW STATISTICAL/EMPIRICAL WORK

POINTING TO
a)
MODEST GROWTH ACROSS THE TAKE-OFF STAGE NB CRAFTS
b)

LIMITED CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS

CLASSIC FACTORY SYSTEM ONLY DEVELOPS AFTER 1830

c)

WAS COTTON THE ONLY LEADING SECTOR IN VIEW OF THE CASE

FOR IRON:

6)

OUTPUT ROSE 4X. 1780-1800

LINKAGES IRON ORE, LIMESTONE, COAL (BACKWARD)
STEAM POWER. ENGINEERING LOWERED INPUT COSTS FOR
CONSUMING INDUSTRIES (FORWARD)
THE AMERICAN CASE WITH REFERENCE TO TAKE-OFF

ROBERT FOLGEL : THE DESTROYER

TAKE-OFF, 1843-60
PROPELLED BY RAILROADS VIA BACKWARD AND FORWARD LINKAGES
BACKWARD = CONSTAUCTION PHASE
FORWARD = COMMERCIAL AND FINANCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE

FOGELS CASE FOCUSSES ON BACKWARD LINKAGES WITH SECONDARY

GROWTH SECTORS i.e. SUPPLYING INDUSTRIES
1)

IRON :

IRON OUTPUTS 3X, 1840-60

RAILROAD SHARE OF TOTAL OUTPUT = 17%. (10% 1840-50)

2)

COAL
DIRECT DEMAND BY RAILROADS WAS NEGLIGIBLE : EARLY US
LOCOS WERE FUELLED BY WOOD!

3)

LUMBER
1840-1860, RAILROADS DEMANDED LESS THAN HALF OF ONE
PERCENT OF LUMBER PRODUCTION.

4)

TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT
IN 1859 THE DOLLAR VALUE OF THE OUTPUT OF VEHICLES DRAWN
BY ANIMALS WAS STILL ALMOST TWICE AS GREAT AS THE OUTPUT
OF EQUIPMENT FOR THE CELEBRATED IRON HORSE.

5)

NAIL IN THE COFFIN

NAILS RATHER THAN RAILS!!

CONCLUSION
ROSTOWS THESIS IS CONTEPTUALLY FLAWED AND WHEN PUT TO THE
TEST HIS FACTS ARE WRONG.
BUT ON THE POSITIVE SIDE
1)

ROSTOWS THEORY TRIGGERED OFF AN ENORMOUS RESEARCH

EFFORT

2)

HIS TERMINOLOGY BECAME EMBEDED IN THE LITERATURE

3)

HE ADVANCED KNOWLEDGE AND UNDERSTANDING

NEXT LECTURE
ROSTOW

vs.

GERSCHENKRON