Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
09 June 2016
BRS Research
2012
11,754
6.5%
3,804
32.4%
2,913
24.8%
2,261
18.84
13.7%
34.45
11.00
5.4%
10.7 x
5.9 x
62.0%
2013
11,197
-4.7%
4,120
36.8%
3,174
28.3%
2,531
21.10
11.9%
40.33
15.00
5.6%
12.7 x
6.6 x
56.4%
2014
11,520
2.9%
4,603
40.0%
3,566
31.0%
2,742
22.85
8.3%
43.33
20.00
5.0%
17.5 x
9.2 x
54.6%
2015
11,564
0.4%
5,196
44.9%
4,143
35.8%
3,092
25.77
12.8%
39.06
23.00
6.7%
13.4 x
8.8 x
62.5%
2016E
12,060
4.3%
5,691
47.2%
4,737
39.3%
3,595
29.96
16.3%
45.02
24.00
7.2%
11.1 x
7.4 x
71.3%
2017E
13,206
9.5%
6,520
49.4%
5,440
41.2%
4,098
34.15
14.0%
55.17
24.00
7.2%
9.7 x
6.0 x
68.2%
2018E
14,833
12.3%
7,815
52.7%
6,613
44.6%
5,036
41.96
22.9%
72.14
25.00
7.5%
7.9 x
4.6 x
65.9%
Trading Snapshot
Market cap (LKR mn)
271
120
49.00%
415.00/300.00
-5.3%
-3.2%
7.2%
Beta
0.46
Valuation Summary
CMP (LKR)
332.90
314.56
DPS (LKR)
24.00
338.56
Valuation method
DCF valuation
Total return %
1.7%
Rating
Hold
LLUB (LKR)
ASPI
LLUB
8000
500
450
7000
400
6000
350
300
5000
250
4000
200
Apr-14
39,948
Nov-14
May-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
%
DPS
32.00
Payout ratio
28.00
100%
24.00
120%
80%
20.00
60%
16.00
40%
12.00
8.00
20%
2012
2013
2014
Page 1
09 June 2016
-5%
3%
0%
2012
2013
2014
2015
4%
14,833
10%
Revenue breakdown
Local sales
Export sales
8%
FY 2015
8%
FY 2014
92%
92%
EPS (LKR)
45.00
EPS
40.00
DPS
DPS (LKR)
28.00
24.00
35.00
20.00
30.00
16.00
25.00
12.00
20.00
8.00
15.00
10.00
4.00
2012
2013
2014
2015
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
18.84
13.7%
10.7 x
18.88
9.9x
10.7 x
34.45
5.9 x
1.6x
11.00
5.4%
2,846,205
2,846,427
12.25
16.5 x
202.00
120,000
24,240,000
21,722,756
1.8 x
7.3 x
21.10
11.9%
12.7 x
21.10
13.0X
12.7 x
40.33
6.6 x
1.8x
15.00
5.6%
1,587,596
1,587,680
(0.27)
nm
267.80
120,000
32,136,000
29,650,826
2.6 x
9.2 x
22.85
8.3%
17.5 x
22.89
22.1x
17.5 x
43.33
9.2 x
2.7x
20.00
5.0%
1,740,841
1,741,166
(9.96)
nm
399.60
120,000
47,952,000
46,661,470
4.1 x
12.9 x
25.77
12.8%
13.4 x
25.77
20.2x
13.4 x
39.06
8.8 x
2.8x
23.00
6.7%
3,088,287
3,088,315
8.74
39.4 x
344.00
120,000
41,280,000
38,940,951
3.4 x
9.1 x
29.96
16.3%
11.1 x
na
na
na
45.02
7.4 x
na
24.00
7.2%
3,755,529
3,755,868
1.29
nm
332.90
120,000
39,948,000
37,453,570
3.1 x
7.7 x
34.15
14.0%
9.7 x
na
na
na
55.17
6.0 x
na
24.00
7.2%
4,018,632
4,019,064
9.48
35.1 x
332.90
120,000
39,948,000
36,315,371
2.7 x
6.5 x
41.96
22.9%
7.9 x
na
na
na
72.14
4.6 x
na
25.00
7.5%
4,883,773
4,884,205
15.69
21.2 x
332.90
120,000
39,948,000
34,432,030
2.3 x
5.1 x
11,754,046
3,804,084
2,956,746
(43,836)
2,912,910
34,638
(309)
4,563
(845,630)
2,261,263
2,261,263
11,197,152
4,120,303
3,220,484
(46,234)
3,174,250
279,044
(117)
421
(921,697)
2,531,480
2,531,480
11,519,891
4,602,816
3,613,771
(48,009)
3,565,762
91,810
(451)
4,839
(952,800)
2,741,995
2,741,995
11,563,854
5,195,832
4,286,300
(143,068)
4,143,232
175,350
(38)
(1,226,709)
3,091,835
3,091,835
12,060,002
5,691,454
4,872,897
(135,608)
4,737,289
197,538
(471)
(1,347,205)
3,595,430
3,595,430
13,206,090
6,519,980
5,579,374
(139,504)
5,439,870
213,568
(600)
(1,554,530)
4,098,308
4,098,308
14,833,080
7,814,707
6,752,927
(139,672)
6,613,255
333,047
(600)
(1,910,068)
5,035,634
5,035,629
2,517,244
2,132,118
986,882
215,813
5,947,508
897,497
1,813,195
4,134,313
4,134,313
(2,517,244)
4,134,313
2,485,174
1,928,704
1,252,068
1,296,651
7,052,472
1,059,802
2,212,451
4,840,021
4,840,021
(2,485,174)
4,840,021
1,290,530
1,746,241
1,130,140
2,243,616
6,476,801
652,962
1,277,590
5,199,210
5,199,210
(1,290,530)
5,199,210
2,339,049
1,308,619
1,111,409
2,195,827
7,045,005
627,179
2,357,975
4,687,029
4,687,029
(2,339,049)
4,687,029
2,494,430
1,472,910
1,227,425
2,150,569
7,431,253
859,198
2,028,794
5,402,459
5,402,459
(2,494,430)
5,402,459
3,632,629
1,654,373
1,516,508
2,143,125
9,056,928
1,130,488
2,436,161
6,620,767
6,620,767
(3,632,629)
6,620,767
5,515,970
1,935,616
1,703,342
2,151,785
11,446,077
1,269,764
2,789,676
8,656,401
8,656,401
(5,515,970)
8,656,401
2,913,609
494,835
(67,627)
2,845,982
(63,064)
(1,380,000)
1,470,545
2,715,618
72,850
(1,128,106)
1,587,512
(1,127,685)
(1,620,000)
(32,067)
2,735,614
(120,785)
(995,097)
1,740,517
(990,258)
(2,940,000)
(1,194,644)
3,183,705
394,146
(95,446)
3,088,260
(95,188)
(2,040,000)
1,048,518
3,845,628
(49,841)
(90,439)
3,755,190
(90,248)
(3,600,000)
155,381
4,150,261
(223,627)
(132,061)
4,018,200
(132,061)
(2,880,000)
1,138,200
5,031,671
(357,874)
(148,331)
4,883,341
(148,331)
(3,000,000)
1,883,341
6.5%
7.4%
32.4%
25.2%
24.8%
19.2%
79.9%
62.0%
58.4%
0.0%
-60.9%
0.0%
nm
-4.7%
9.0%
36.8%
28.8%
28.3%
22.6%
70.7%
56.4%
71.1%
0.0%
-51.3%
0.0%
nm
2.9%
12.3%
40.0%
31.4%
31.0%
23.8%
71.0%
54.6%
87.5%
0.0%
-24.8%
0.0%
nm
0.4%
16.2%
44.9%
37.1%
35.8%
26.7%
83.8%
62.5%
89.3%
0.0%
-49.9%
0.0%
nm
4.3%
14.3%
47.2%
40.4%
39.3%
29.8%
93.9%
71.3%
80.1%
0.0%
-46.2%
0.0%
nm
9.5%
14.8%
49.4%
42.2%
41.2%
31.0%
90.5%
68.2%
70.3%
0.0%
-54.9%
0.0%
nm
12.3%
21.6%
52.7%
45.5%
44.6%
33.9%
86.6%
65.9%
59.6%
0.0%
-63.7%
0.0%
nm
Page 2
Source: LLUB Annual Reports and BRS Research
Q1 FY 16 Performance
Q1 FY 16
Q1 FY 15
Q4 FY 15
Revenue
3,120
2,812
2,958
YoY growth %
11.0%
-5.9%
7.8%
QoQ growth%
5.5%
2.5%
-1.3%
Cost of sales
(1,600)
(1,616)
(1,612)
Gross Profit
1,520
1,196
1,346
48.7%
42.5%
45.5%
986
743
713
8.22
6.19
5.94
YoY growth %
32.7%
-2.7%
28.5%
QoQ growth%
38.2%
33.8%
-14.5%
47.27
49.52
39.03
ROCE %
76.5%
61.7%
83.9%
ROE %
57.4%
47.1%
62.5%
EV/Sales (x)
2.9
4.0
3.4
EV/EBITDA (x)
7.4
12.3
9.1
Qty (KL)
70,000
Market share
60
60,000
50
50,000
40
40,000
30
30,000
20
20,000
10
10,000
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
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Page 3
FY 2016E
Tax rate
NP (LKR 'mn)
Forward PER(x)
Total return
(LKR)
Upside on TR
17.5%
3,959
10.1
364.10
9.4%
28%
3,595
11.1
338.56
1.7%
Valuations assumptions
Based on a free cash flow valuation we have arrived at a target price of LKR 314.56 . Our valuations are based
on the following assumptions:
WACC 12.2%
Terminal growth rate - 3%
Risk free rate 11.96% (previous - 9.95%)
www.bartleetreligare.com
10.0%
11.0%
11.96%
12.0%
13.0%
2%
339.39
318.36
300.78
300.09
284.06
3%
359.47
334.85
314.56
313.78
295.54
4%
385.11
355.49
331.56
330.64
309.48
Page 4
Financial Analysis
Income statement - Chevron Lubricants Lanka PLC
Year Ending 31st December
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
Net turnover
11,754,046
11,197,152
11,519,891
11,563,854
12,060,002
13,206,090
14,833,080
YoY growth %
6.5%
-4.7%
2.9%
0.4%
4.3%
9.5%
12.3%
Cost of Sales
(7,949,962)
(7,076,850)
(6,917,075)
(6,368,022)
(6,368,548)
(6,686,110)
(7,018,373)
YoY growth %
5.1%
-11.0%
-2.3%
-7.9%
0.0%
5.0%
5.0%
3,804,084
4,120,303
4,602,816
5,195,832
5,691,454
6,519,980
7,814,707
Gross Profit
YoY growth %
Gross profit margin
Other operating Income
9.5%
8.3%
11.7%
12.9%
9.5%
14.6%
19.9%
32.4%
36.8%
40.0%
44.9%
47.2%
49.4%
52.7%
12,294
7,061
13,140
10,900
7,103
8,000
8,800
(898,904)
(952,694)
(1,045,356)
(1,063,501)
(961,268)
(1,088,110)
(1,210,251)
15.2%
6.0%
9.7%
1.7%
-9.6%
13.2%
11.2%
(43,836)
(46,234)
(48,009)
(143,068)
(135,608)
(139,504)
(139,672)
2,917,473
3,174,670
3,570,601
4,143,232
4,737,289
5,439,870
6,613,255
4,563
421
4,839
2,912,910
3,174,250
3,565,762
4,143,232
4,737,289
5,439,870
6,613,255
YoY growth %
7.4%
9.0%
12.3%
16.2%
14.3%
14.8%
21.6%
EBIT margin
24.8%
28.3%
31.0%
35.8%
39.3%
41.2%
44.6%
2,956,746
3,220,484
3,613,771
4,286,300
4,872,897
5,579,374
6,752,927
YoY growth %
7.1%
8.9%
12.2%
18.6%
13.7%
14.5%
21.0%
EBITDA margin
25.2%
28.8%
31.4%
37.1%
40.4%
42.2%
45.5%
193,983
278,927
129,033
175,312
205,345
212,968
332,447
3,106,893
3,453,177
3,694,795
4,318,544
4,942,634
5,652,838
6,945,702
12.8%
11.1%
7.0%
16.9%
14.5%
14.4%
22.9%
(845,630)
(921,697)
(952,800)
(1,226,709)
(1,347,205)
(1,554,530)
(1,910,068)
2,261,263
2,531,480
2,741,995
3,091,835
3,595,430
4,098,308
5,035,634
YoY growth %
13.7%
11.9%
8.3%
12.8%
16.3%
14.0%
22.9%
18.88
21.10
22.89
25.77
29.96
34.15
41.96
18.84
21.10
22.85
25.77
29.96
34.15
41.96
Note 1: Based on earnings as reported (unadjusted for non-recurring) share data adjusted for splits and super gains tax
Note 2: EPS adjusted for share split, consolidations and non recurring information
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Page 5
Financial Analysis
Income statement - Chevron Lubricants Lanka PLC
Year Ending 31st December
2015
Q1 16
Q2 16E
Q3 16E
Q4 16E
2016E
2017E
2018E
Net turnover
11,563,854
3,120,035
2,854,901
3,016,504
3,068,563
12,060,002
13,206,090
14,833,080
YoY growth %
0.4%
11.0%
2.1%
0.6%
3.7%
4.3%
9.5%
12.3%
Cost of Sales
(6,368,022)
(1,600,212)
(1,473,102)
(1,652,526)
(1,642,708)
(6,368,548)
(6,686,110)
(7,018,373)
YoY growth %
-7.9%
-1.0%
-3.0%
1.9%
1.9%
0.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5,195,832
1,519,823
1,381,799
1,363,977
1,425,855
5,691,454
6,519,980
7,814,707
YoY growth %
12.9%
27.1%
8.1%
-0.9%
5.9%
9.5%
14.6%
19.9%
44.9%
48.7%
48.4%
45.2%
46.5%
47.2%
49.4%
52.7%
10,900
1,103
2,000
2,000
2,000
7,103
8,000
8,800
(1,063,501)
(221,924)
(237,092)
(249,185)
(253,067)
(961,268)
(1,088,110)
(1,210,251)
1.7%
11.7%
-9.0%
-13.7%
-19.8%
-9.6%
13.2%
11.2%
(143,068)
(37,256)
(32,821)
(32,781)
(32,750)
(135,608)
(139,504)
(139,672)
4,143,232
1,299,002
1,146,706
1,116,793
1,174,788
4,737,289
5,439,870
6,613,255
Gross Profit
4,143,232
1,299,002
1,146,706
1,116,793
1,174,788
4,737,289
5,439,870
6,613,255
16.2%
30.1%
12.1%
2.4%
13.9%
14.3%
14.8%
21.6%
35.8%
41.6%
40.2%
37.0%
38.3%
39.3%
41.2%
44.6%
4,286,300
1,336,258
1,179,527
1,149,574
1,207,538
4,872,897
5,579,374
6,752,927
YoY growth %
18.6%
29.3%
11.5%
2.1%
13.0%
13.7%
14.5%
21.0%
EBITDA margin
37.1%
42.8%
41.3%
38.1%
39.4%
40.4%
42.2%
45.5%
175,312
44,310
53,286
54,504
53,245
205,345
212,968
332,447
4,318,544
1,343,312
1,199,992
1,171,297
1,228,033
4,942,634
5,652,838
6,945,702
16.9%
30.7%
12.7%
2.9%
12.9%
14.5%
14.4%
22.9%
(1,226,709)
(357,391)
(329,998)
(322,107)
(337,709)
(1,347,205)
(1,554,530)
(1,910,068)
3,091,835
985,921
869,994
849,190
890,324
3,595,430
4,098,308
5,035,634
YoY growth %
12.8%
32.7%
9.1%
1.7%
24.8%
16.3%
14.0%
22.9%
25.77
8.22
7.25
7.08
7.42
29.96
34.15
41.96
25.77
8.22
7.25
7.08
7.42
29.96
34.15
41.96
Note 1: Based on earnings as reported (unadjusted for non-recurring) share data adjusted for splits and super gains tax
Note 2: EPS adjusted for share split, consolidations and non recurring information
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Page 6
Financial Analysis
Statement of Financial Position - Chevron Lubricants Lanka PLC
As at 31st December
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
215,813
1,296,651
2,243,616
2,195,827
2,150,569
2,143,125
2,151,785
94,109
81,152
66,274
90,101
85,920
110,292
139,364
1,341
8,723
311,263
1,386,526
2,309,890
2,285,928
2,236,488
2,253,417
2,291,149
2,132,118
1,928,704
1,746,241
1,308,619
1,472,910
1,654,373
1,935,616
986,882
1,252,068
1,130,140
1,111,409
1,227,425
1,516,508
1,703,342
2,517,244
2,485,174
1,290,530
2,339,049
2,494,430
3,632,629
5,515,970
5,636,245
5,665,946
4,166,911
4,759,077
5,194,765
6,803,511
9,154,928
5,947,508
7,052,472
6,476,801
7,045,005
7,431,253
9,056,928
11,446,077
Current Assets
Inventories
Receivables and Prepayments
Cash and Cash Equivalents
Total Assets
Equity and Reserves
Stated Capital
600,000
600,000
600,000
600,000
600,000
600,000
600,000
Retained Earnings
3,534,313
4,240,021
4,599,210
4,087,029
4,802,459
6,020,767
8,056,401
Shareholders funds
4,134,313
4,840,021
5,199,210
4,687,029
5,402,459
6,620,767
8,656,401
87,328
-
122,060
-
119,902
101,596
125,557
173,641
135,299
189,634
147,619
189,634
158,983
189,634
87,328
122,060
221,498
299,198
324,933
337,253
348,617
897,497
1,059,802
652,962
627,179
859,198
1,130,488
1,269,764
Current Tax
468,370
490,590
403,131
711,599
844,664
968,420
1,171,295
Dividends payable
360,000
540,000
Current Liabilities
Bank Borrowings
1,725,867
2,090,392
1,056,093
720,000
-
2,058,777
1,703,861
2,098,908
2,441,060
Total Liabilities
1,813,195
2,212,451
1,277,590
2,357,975
2,028,794
2,436,161
2,789,676
5,947,508
7,052,472
6,476,801
7,045,004
7,431,253
9,056,927
11,446,077
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Financial Analysis
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
2,917,473
3,174,670
3,570,601
4,143,230
4,737,289
5,439,870
6,613,255
43,836
46,234
48,009
143,068
135,608
139,504
139,672
1,090
1,034
123
167
(4,563)
(420)
(4,839)
(258)
11,102
(2,506)
(5,379)
(102)
-
(280)
159,654
43,356
37,674
15,241
8,278
16,600
19,813
22,477
18,532
23,470
24,000
24,000
3,165,745
3,325,328
3,700,630
4,338,115
4,910,277
5,603,374
6,776,927
494,835
72,850
(120,785)
394,146
(49,841)
(223,627)
(357,874)
3,660,580
3,398,178
3,579,845
4,732,262
4,860,437
5,379,747
6,419,053
333,047
235,690
97,834
154,569
197,538
213,568
Interest paid
(309)
(117)
(451)
(38)
(471)
(600)
(600)
(701)
(9,662)
(7,473)
(8,228)
(13,728)
(11,680)
(12,636)
(745,961)
(908,471)
(934,141)
(1,694,859)
(1,198,147)
(1,430,775)
(1,707,192)
Tax paid
Super gains tax paid
Net Cash from Operating Activities
2,913,609
2,715,618
2,735,614
3,183,705
3,845,628
4,150,261
5,031,671
(67,627)
(1,128,106)
(995,097)
(95,446)
(90,439)
(132,061)
(148,331)
4,563
421
4,839
258
191
Investing Activities
Purchase of property, plant & equipment
Proceeds from disposal of PPE
Short term investments uplifted & maturity
(63,064)
(95,188)
(90,248)
(1,127,685)
(990,258)
(132,061)
(148,331)
Financing Activities
Short term loans obtained / (settled) to related parties
Dividends paid
(1,380,000)
(1,620,000)
(2,940,000)
(2,040,000)
(3,600,000)
(2,880,000)
(3,000,000)
(1,380,000)
(1,620,000)
(2,940,000)
(2,040,000)
(3,600,000)
(2,880,000)
(3,000,000)
1,470,545
(32,067)
(1,194,644)
1,048,518
155,381
1,138,200
1,883,341
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No of shares
61,200,000
51.00
2 HSBC INTL NOM LTD-SSBT WASATCH FRONTIER EMERGING SMALL COUNTRIES FUND
6,133,248
5.11
2,954,168
2.46
2,221,717
1.85
1,880,000
1.57
1,829,851
1.52
7 HSBC INTL NOM LTD-BP2S LUXEMBOURG-ABERDEEN GLOBAL FRONTIER MARKETS EQUITY FUND
1,812,968
1.51
1,788,676
1.49
1,592,496
1.33
10 HSBC Internaonal Nominees Ltd-BPSS Lux Aberdeen Global Asian Small companies fund
1,445,487
1.20
1,400,000
1.17
1,400,000
1.17
13 Nothern Trust Global Services London S/A VERDIPAPIRONDET ODIN EMERGING MARKETS
1,322,097
1.10
14 HSBC INTL NOMINEES LTD-BP2S LONDON- ABERDEEN ASIA SMALLER COMPANIES INVESTMENT TRUST
1,296,360
1.08
1,068,603
0.89
1,007,958
0.84
1,001,814
0.83
1,000,000
0.83
950,060
0.79
20 HSBC INTL NOMINEES LTD-SSBT-FRANK RUSSEL TRUST COMPANY COMINGLED BENEFIT FUNDS TRUST GNA-6QH3
904,539
0.75
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Recommendation
Expected absolute returns (%) over 12 months
Buy
More than 10%
Hold
Between 10% and 0
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Less than 0%
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