the polling company, inc.

/ WomanTrend
On behalf of
Citizens United Political Victory Fund
TOPLINE DATA
Dual-Frame (30% Cell) Survey of
400 Likely Primary Voters in New Yorks Twenty-Second Congressional District (NY-22)
Field Dates: June 17-18, 2016
Margin of Error: 4.9%
1. Are you currently registered to vote here in New York as a (ROTATE) Republican,
Democrat, Independent/Unaffiliated or are you not registered to vote at all here in New
York?
100%

YES, REPUBLICAN (CONTINUED)

2. On June 28, there will be primary elections in New York for offices such as U.S. Senate
and U.S. House. At this time, do you plan to... (READ AND ROTATE RESPONSE
CATEGORIES)
68%
33%

DEFINITELY VOTE (CONTINUED)

PROBABLY VOTE (CONTINUED)

3. Into which of the following categories does your age fall?

2%
7%
12%
22%
29%
28%

18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund
Dual-Frame Survey among NY22 Likely Primary Voters Topline data
June 2016

4. Would you describe your racial or ethnic background as (READ LIST)?

93%
2%
1%
1%
*
*
*
3%

WHITE/CAUCASIAN
NATIVE AMERICAN
BLACK/AFRICAN-AMERICAN
ASIAN
HISPANIC/LATINO
OTHER ___________ (VOLUNTEERED)
DO NOT KNOW (VOLUNTEERED)
REFUSED (VOLUNTEERED)

5. Region (RECORDED BY COUNTY FROM SAMPLE)

27%
10%
3%
11%
8%
30%
10%
3%

BROOM
CHENANGO
CORTLAND
HERKIMER
MADISON
ONEIDA
OSWEGO
TIOGA

6. Gender
52%
48%

MALE
FEMALE

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund
Dual-Frame Survey among NY22 Likely Primary Voters Topline data
June 2016

INTRODUCTION
7. Which of the following groups of issues are most important to your vote in the New York
Republican Primary?(ROTATED TOP-TO-BOTTOM AND BOTTOM-TO-TOP)
35%
28%
10%
8%

ECONOMIC ISSUES, LIKE TAXES AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING

NATIONAL SECURITY ISSUES, LIKE ISIS AND THE MIDDLE EAST
SOCIAL ISSUES, LIKE HEALTHCARE AND EDUCATION
MORAL ISSUES, LIKE ABORTION AND MARRIAGE

18%

ALL OF THE ABOVE/EQUALLY IMPORTANT (VOL.)

1%
1%
*

NONE OF THE ABOVE (VOL.)

DO NOT KNOW/CANNOT JUDGE (VOL.)
REFUSED (VOL.)

NAME RECOGNITION AND FAVORABILITY RATINGS

Switching topics slightly for a moment, I am going to read you the names of a few people. After I
read each name, first please tell me if you have heard of that person, and then tell me if you
have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you have no opinion of a person, or
have never heard of a particular person, just tell me and well move on. (RANDOMIZE IN
SECTION)
(ASK FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE): And do you have a STRONGLY (favorable/unfavorable)
opinion of that person, or just a SOMEWHAT (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person?
8. Claudia Tenney (TEN-ee)
37%
21%
16%

TOTAL FAVORABLE (NET)

STRONGLY FAVORABLE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE

27%
13%
14%

TOTAL UNFAVORABLE (NET)

SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE
STRONGLY UNFAVORABLE

22%

HEARD OF, NO OPINION

11%

NEVER HEARD OF

2%
*

DO NOT KNOW (VOL.)

REFUSED (VOL.)

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund
Dual-Frame Survey among NY22 Likely Primary Voters Topline data
June 2016

9. George Phillips
18%
6%
12%
8%
5%
3%

TOTAL FAVORABLE (NET)

STRONGLY FAVORABLE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
TOTAL UNFAVORABLE (NET)
SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE
STRONGLY UNFAVORABLE

21%

HEARD OF, NO OPINION

52%
2%
-

NEVER HEARD OF
DO NOT KNOW (VOL.)
REFUSED (VOL.)

10. Steve Wells

25%
8%
17%

TOTAL FAVORABLE (NET)

STRONGLY FAVORABLE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE

16%
7%
9%

TOTAL UNFAVORABLE (NET)

SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE
STRONGLY UNFAVORABLE

28%

HEARD OF, NO OPINION

29%

NEVER HEARD OF

3%
-

DO NOT KNOW (VOL.)

REFUSED (VOL.)

JOB APPROVAL
11. Do you (ROTATE) approve or disapprove of the job that Richard Hanna is doing
representing New Yorks 22nd Congressional District in Congress? (PROBE: And would
that be STRONGLY or SOMEWHAT approve/disapprove?)
62%
28%
34%

TOTAL APPROVE (NET)

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE

25%
12%
13%

TOTAL DISAPPROVE (NET)

SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE

13%
1%

DO NOT KNOW/CANNOT JUDGE (VOL.)

REFUSED (VOL.)

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund
Dual-Frame Survey among NY22 Likely Primary Voters Topline data
June 2016

PRIMARY BALLOT TESTS

12. If the Republican primary election for U.S. Congress were today, would you vote for
(ROTATE ORDER OF NAMES) Claudia Tenney (Ten-ee), George Phillips, or Steve
Wells? (PROBE THOSE WHO SAY A CANDIDATE: And would that be DEFINITELY or
PROBABLY [INSERT CANDIDATE NAME]?) (PROBE THOSE WHO SAY
UNDECIDED OR DO NOT KNOW: Toward which candidate do you lean?)
38%
23%
12%
3%

TOTAL CLAUDIA TENNEY (NET)

DEFINITELY CLAUDIA TENNEY
PROBABLY CLAUDIA TENNEY
LEAN CLAUDIA TENNEY

26%
11%
13%
2%

TOTAL STEVE WELLS (NET)

DEFINITELY STEVE WELLS
PROBABLY STEVE WELLS
LEAN STEVE WELLS

11%
5%
4%
2%

TOTAL GEORGE PHILLIPS (NET)

DEFINITELY GEORGE PHILLIPS
PROBABLY GEORGE PHILLIPS
LEAN GEORGE PHILLIPS

24%

HARD UNDECIDED/DO NOT KNOW (VOL.)

1%
1%

SOMEONE ELSE, PLEASE SPECIFY: ____________ (RECORD

VERBATIM) (VOL.)
REFUSED (VOL.)

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund
Dual-Frame Survey among NY22 Likely Primary Voters Topline data
June 2016

ADDITIONAL DEMOGRAPHICS
Finally, a few confidential statistical questions for classification purposes only...
13. Which of the following best describes you: (READ AND ROTATE) (CODE ENGAGED
OR LIVING TOGETHER AS SINGLE):
70%
9%
9%
9%
2%
1%

MARRIED
SINGLE, NEVER MARRIED
DIVORCED
WIDOWED
SEPARATED
REFUSED (VOL.)

14. Regarding your familys annual incomePlease tell me which of the following categories
best describes your familys annual income. I dont need a specific amount; a broad
range will be fine.
10%
6%
9%
9%
9%
6%
5%
13%
20%

BELOW $25,000
$25,000 TO $29,999
$30,000 TO $39,999
$40,000 TO $49,999
$50,000 TO $59,999
$60,000 TO $69,999
$70,000 TO $74,999
$75,000 TO $99,999
$100,000 AND ABOVE

14%

REFUSED (VOL.)

15. Are you.? (READ CATEGORIES)

36%
36%
1%
*

CATHOLIC
PROTESTANT (ASKED NEXT Q.)
JEWISH
LDS/Latter Day Saints

5%
14%
5%
4%

AGNOSTIC/ATHEIST
OTHER (PLEASE SPECIFY) (RECORDED VERBATIM (VOL.)
NONE/UNAFFILIATED (VOL.)
REFUSED (VOL.)

16. (ASKED ONLY OF THOSE WHO SAID PROTESTANT IN PREVIOUS Q.) (n=144)
And would you consider yourself born-again or Evangelical?
59%
35%
6%

YES
NO
DO NOT KNOW/REFUSED (VOL.)

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund
Dual-Frame Survey among NY22 Likely Primary Voters Topline data
June 2016

17. Thinking for a moment about your social, economic, and political views...Do you consider
yourself to be (ROTATED) conservative, moderate, or liberal?
[IF CONSERVATIVE/LIBERAL, ASKED] And would you consider yourself to be VERY
(conservative/liberal) or just SOMEWHAT (conservative/liberal)?)
64%
38%
26%

TOTAL CONSERVATIVE (NET)

VERY CONSERVATIVE
SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE

27%

MODERATE

6%
5%
2%

TOTAL LIBERAL (NET)

SOMEWHAT LIBERAL
VERY LIBERAL

1%

LIBERTARIAN

3%

DO NOT KNOW/REFUSED (VOL.)

18. In politics today, and regardless of how you are registered, do you consider yourself to be
a (ROTATED) Republican, Independent, or Democrat?
(IF REPUBLICAN ASKED, and are you a strong Republican, Tea Party Republican, noso-strong Republican, or Independent-leaning Republican? IF DEMOCRAT, ASKED:
Are you a strong Democrat, Independent-leaning Democrat, not-so-strong Democrat,
strong Democrat, or progressive Democrat)?
(IF INDEPENDENT, ASKED Which way you lean, or usually vote, the Democratic or
Republican Party?)
80%
12%
35%
10%
23%

TOTAL REPUBLICAN (NET)

TEA PARTY REPUBLICAN
STRONG REPUBLICAN
NOT-SO-STRONG REPUBLICAN
INDEPENDENT LEANING REPUBLICAN

9%

INDEPENDENT

5%
4%
*
1%
1%

TOTAL DEMOCRAT (NET)

INDEPENDENT LEANING DEMOCRAT
NOT-SO-STRONG DEMOCRAT
STRONG DEMOCRAT
PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRAT

3%
2%
1%

OTHER (VOL.)
DO NOT KNOW (VOL.)
REFUSED (VOL.)

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund
Dual-Frame Survey among NY22 Likely Primary Voters Topline data
June 2016