TO:

David Bossie, President

Citizens United Political Victory Fund

FROM:

Kellyanne Conway, President & Founder

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend

DATE:

June 20, 2016

RE:
Survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters in NY-22
Claudia Tenney enters the final week of her Republican primary campaign with a
38% to 26% edge over the closest competitor Steve Wells in the race to fill retiring
U.S. Congressman Richard Hannas seat in New Yorks Twenty-Second
Congressional District. Another candidate George Phillips stands a distant third
place with 11%, while a considerable 24% of likely GOP Primary voters say they are still
undecided about their vote with one week remaining before the election.

Tenney, a current New York State Assemblywoman, holds a double-digit edge

over Wells among men: 43% to 24%, with 8% opting for Phillips and 23%
undecided. She also leads Wells among women, albeit by a narrower 32% to
27% spread (with Phillips collecting 14% and 25% still up-for-grabs).

Republican primary voters of all ideological stripes tend to support Tenney on the
ballot. The race tightens among somewhat conservative voters (33% Tenney to
28% Wells), while Tenney is boosted to a commanding 43% to 25% lead over
Wells among very conservative voters.
Head-to-Head Ballot by Ideology

38%
26%
11%

OVERALL

43%

38%
24%

26%

25%

33%
28%

25%

25%

13%

8%

SELF-ID MODERATE SELF-ID SOMEWHAT

CONSERVATIVE
TOTAL VOTE TENNEY (NET)

TOTAL VOTE WELLS (NET)

TOTAL VOTE PHILLIPS (NET)

UND./DK (VOL.)

13%

19%

SELF-ID VERY
CONSERVATIVE

In contrast with these data, a recent Liberty Opinion Research IVR survey
showed a neck-and-neck contest between Tenney and Wells. However,
whereas our poll used a dual-frame methodology comprised of 30% cell phone
interviews, Libertys survey dialed only landline households using automated
phone calls. According to government statistics, 31.1% of New York adults are
wireless-only while a separate 18.1% are classified as wireless-mostly.

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund
Dual-Frame (30% Cell) Survey among GOP Primary LVs in NY-22 Executive Summary
June 2016

NAME IDENTIFICATION AND FAVORABILITY

As the Republican primary candidates make their closing arguments to voters, Tenney
holds a critical edge over her opponents in name identification. She maintains a 37%
favorable image within the District, outpacing Wells (25% favorable) and Phillips (18%
favorable). Meanwhile, just 11% of the District have never heard of Tenney, compared
to 29% who are completely unaware of Wells and 52% who volunteer this response in
reaction to Phillips.

+10
FAV.
+10
FAV.
+9 FAV.

TOTAL
FAV. (NET)

TOTAL
UNFAV.
(NET)

37%

27%

18%

8%

25%

16%

Claudia
Tenney
George
Phillips
Steve Wells

HEARD
OF/NO
OPINION
(VOL.)

NEVER
HEARD OF
(VOL.)

22%

11%

21%

52%

28%

29%

ISSUE PRIORITIES
NY-22 Republicans rank dollars and sense issues as the most important criteria when
deciding whom to support in the primary: 35% identify economic issues, like taxes and
government spending, trailed by 28% selecting national security issues, like ISIS and
the Middle East.
Meanwhile, social issues, like healthcare and education (10%) and moral issues, like
abortion and marriage (8%) are slightly less critical topics for Republican primary
voters. A separate 18% volunteer that each of these four categories are equally
important to their Republican Primary vote.
METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
On behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund, the polling company, inc./WomanTrend conducted a dual-frame telephone
survey of 400 likely Republican primary voters in New Yorks Twenty-Second Congressional District at a Computer-Assisted
Telephone Interviewing (CATI) facility by telephone and with live callers. The survey had a dual-frame sampling design using 70%
landlines and 30% cell phones.
Respondents were selected randomly from registered voter lists. Two independent non-overlapping sample frames were drawn,
one for landlines and one for cell phones.
Sampling controls were used to ensure that a proportional and representative number of likely voters were interviewed from such
demographic groups as age, gender, race and ethnicity, and geographic region.
The overall margin sampling of error for this study is 4.9% at a 95% confidence interval, meaning that in 19 of 20 cases, the data
obtained would not differ by more than 4.9 percentage points in either direction were the entire likely GOP Primary electorate in NY22 surveyed. Margins of error for subgroups are higher.

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund
Dual-Frame (30% Cell) Survey among GOP Primary LVs in NY-22 Executive Summary
June 2016