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[DAILY PETROSPECTIVE] May 25, 2010
Early Evening Market Review for Tuesday
The oil complex dropped on Tuesday, as traders returned to their recent
pattern of following equities and currencies. On Monday, they had ignored
a stronger US dollar and a weaker euro, two factors that would have
knocked quotes lower on most days this month and on the vast majority of
trading days since March, 2009. Early Tuesday morning, the euro had
dropped steeply and Asian stock markets had started moving lower again.
The weakness in thos markets triggered sell‐stops in crude under $69.57
and then beneath Friday’s low of $69.00. Heating oil futures touched off
sell‐stops under 188.40 and 187.45. Gasoline triggered stops under 194.85.
By the time trading started in New York, prices were already under the gun.
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CAMERON HANOVER
[DAILY PETROSPECTIVE] May 25, 2010
The catalyst, as it has been repeatedly this month, came from concerns over the euro‐zone deby crisis. This
was augmented by a technical failure to build on gains (and to continue higher) in equities on Asian exchanges.
The one‐two punch was enough to press oil prices lower, and once sell‐stops had been touched, the buying we
had seen on Monday evaporated. It has been tentative and timid even on Monday. And the fresh offensive by
the bears turned into an irresistible pincers movement that sent the bulls fleeing in disorder.
The renewed fears were actually kicked off by news that the spanish government had been ‘fdorced’ to
step in to save a small regional savings institution. That, in turn, reanimated the bearish arguments and it also
implied that the sovereign debt crisis might be leeching into businesses in Europe.
Without help from a stronger equities environment and with so many investors abandoning the carry trade
and riskier assets lkike oil, the market alsdo turned its attention to fundamentals, which have been bearish
through the entire period of asset appreciation over the last 15 months or so.
Crude Oil Daily Technical Chart
*Note: Full report to be released Wednesday morning*
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