NOTES OF SECOND MEETING BETWEEN ANDREW GILLIGAN AND DAVID

KELLY OF 11 APRIL 2002

"Other mems"

Didn't come clean m `95

We had a period of apparent co-op between 8/95 - 2/96

Saddam thought a data dump wd satisfy the UN

Has abandoned El-Haktm - destroyed

We suspect other plants : they have eqpt (albeit in small quantities)

UNA/CD 4

Tareq : Missile plant

There is efficient info coming out since '98 to make us concerned :

People we were interested in were maintained as teams .
Military/Industrial commission remains the apple of SH's eye.

Programme continues - quite ambitious -

Actual wpns small plus crude. Have (or could CD have) something within 6 mno .

Main capabil wd be phsycological - no hugely destructive attack poss.

See all int - tell them what it means!

No smoking guns - nothing you wouldn't know .

A bit of agent they haven't admitted -have imported small quantities ofplague vaccine .

A few Russian scuds unaccounted for-2 of 819, poss more

Plus-minus 50 indigenous

Rather uneventful - not much in it - so delayed

Kelly role to advise on all CBW claims in dossier.

Thread equals capabil plus intention. Intention lacking - too much to lose w/terrorists etc.

BW prog-absolutely no evidence ofFGN involvement.

ALIBEK has claimed there was, but Kelly does not believe. '

None of the BW facs looked @ by L1vTSCOM were hit in DF

Missile facs were hit & one chemical plant @ Faluja

~yCQ ~3
Desert Fox did not affect their BW prog at all.

Cannot trust them of course - 10/15 yrs ago there was a lot of info
with the concealment and deception op much less info.
but CND [Concealment and Deception] does scale down programme. Can't conceal huge
prog.
We only have 80 serious documents on BW (200 total)- most ex UNSCOM .

But US is less + less convinced that Sadddam is contained

Sanctions not stopping things getting in
Many attempts to procure - esp m nuclear area
But factsjust aren't there, even if intent remains

Missiles - John Harlow, ex BAE

US keen on acting
But little hard HEMINT - v.diff target to crack
I see all int plus not much to see - not much to say

Inspectors return? Iraq may say yes I think so long as partic site/timelines. Blix says 12 mo
needed w-full co-op .

Tentative links - acquisitions/mtermadzaries ;Pakistan.

but Russian has got fed up w/Iraq - snubbed.

They have (or cd have within 6 mo) sometlung capable of putting a small cloud - but no
more .