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Ghalla Bhansali Stock Brokers Pvt. Ltd.
20th July, 2009
A major boost to FMCG sector in Budget
o Rural focus, employment generation and infrastructure spending will
improve rural income. Rural India accounts for more than 40%
consumption for major FMCG categories. FMCG companies are
witnessing a 40%growth in rural sales as against 25% in urban areas.
Further, on account of low penetration these companies are banking on
rural areas for volume growth. Hence, continued focus on rural
development would benefit the sector.
o Process for the smooth introduction of the Goods and Services Tax
(GST) will come in effect from 1st April, 2010.
o 4 % duty maintained on paper and paperboards, biscuits, sharbats,
cakes and pastries.
o Investment linked tax incentives to be provided to the businesses of
setting up and operating ʹcold chainʹ warehousing facilities for storing
agricultural produce.
o Fringe benefit tax (FBT) abolished. Surcharge of 10% on personal
income‐tax also removed. The FMCG sector will benefit with the
removal of the fringe benefit tax as it adds to the costs unnecessarily.
Swot Analysis – FMCG Sector
Opportunities:
o Untapped rural market.
o Rising income levels, i.e. increase in purchasing power of consumers.
o Large domestic market‐ a population of over one billion.
o Export potential.
o High consumer goods spending.
Threats:
o Removal of import restrictions resulting in replacing of domestic
brands.
o Slowdown in rural demand due to low monsoon.
o Tax and regulatory structure.
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Ghalla Bhansali Stock Brokers Pvt. Ltd.
20th July, 2009
Growth Prospect
o Large Market
India has a population of more than 1.150 Billions which is just behind China.
According to the estimates, by 2030 India population will be around 1.450
Billion and will surpass China to become the World largest in terms of
population. FMCG Industry which is directly related to the population is
expected to maintain a robust growth rate.
o Spending Pattern
An increase is spending pattern has been witnessed in Indian FMCG market.
There is an upward trend in urban as well as rural market and also an increase
in spending in organ‐ized retail sector. An increase in disposable income, of
household mainly because of in‐crease in nuclear family where both the
husband and wife are earning, has leads to growth rate in FMCG goods.
o Changing Profile and Mind Set of Consumer
People are becoming conscious about health and hygienic. There is a change
in the mind set of the Consumer and now looking at “Money for Value” rather
than “Value for Money”. We have seen willingness in consumers to move to
evolved products/ brands, because of changing lifestyles, rising disposable
income etc. Consumers are switching from economy to premium product
even we have witnessed a sharp increase in the sales of packaged water and
water purifier. Findings according to a recent survey by A. C. Nielsen shows
about 71 per cent of Indian take notice of packaged goodsʹ labels containing
nutritional information compared to two years ago which was only 59 per
cent.
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Ghalla Bhansali Stock Brokers Pvt. Ltd.
20th July, 2009
India’s per capita consumption is the lowest in the world across categories
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Ghalla Bhansali Stock Brokers Pvt. Ltd.
20th July, 2009
India’s per capita consumption is the lowest in the world across categories
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Ghalla Bhansali Stock Brokers Pvt. Ltd.
20th July, 2009
Company Prospects
Hindustan Unilever Limited
o Unilever is lowering its expenditure on packaging across its portfolio of
food brands as part of a wider cost‐cutting drive. HUL has pared down
the colour palette used for print‐ing across many products. The system
has been used to reduce printed packaging costs for Unileverʹs
products. It is also eco‐friendly because it reduces waste in the printing
process. HUL is taking different steps to reduce the cost and increase
the margin.
o Net profit of HUL rose a mere 4% to Rs 394.99 crore on net sales
increasing a modest 5% to Rs 4035.37 crore in the quarter ended March
2009 over the quarter ended March 2008. HUL managed to improve
margin by 120 bps to 14.8%, which boosted its profit before tax before
extraordinary items (EO) 22% to Rs 573.12 crore. But there was EO
expense of Rs 107.09 crore as against income of Rs 2.52 crore in the
corresponding previous quarter, resulting in a net profit growth of a
mere 4%.
Procter & Gamble Hygiene & Health Care Limited (P&G)
o The Company has 21 product categories out of which only 8 product
have presence in India. The company is planning to launch the rest 13
product in India. The company expects to see a growth in other
categories.
o The company has an aggressive plan to set up 20 new factories across
the World out of which 19 is expected to come in emerging markets and
most of them would be seen in Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC)
nations.
o Procter & Gambleʹs net profit grew 27 per cent for the third quarter
ended March 31, 2009, to Rs 34.8 crore, from Rs 27.37 in the
corresponding quarter of the last financial year. Revenue grew 20 per
cent to Rs 177.8 crore from Rs 148.23 crore. The company attributed the
growth to the performance of its healthcare and feminine hygiene
businesses. Feminine hygiene business posted 25 per cent growth in
sales to Rs 108.2 crore, compared with Rs 86.9 crore in the same period
a year ago. Healthcare sales at Rs 69.6 crore grew 13 per cent from Rs
61.4 crore.
o Whisper which is one of the company’s power brands has recorded 50
per cent market share in urban India.
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Ghalla Bhansali Stock Brokers Pvt. Ltd.
20th July, 2009
Godrej Consumer Products Limited (Godrej)
o Net profit of GCPL rose 51% to Rs 56.10 crore and net sales 29% to Rs
275.50 crore in the quarter ended March 2009. Despite fall in margin by
180 bps to 19.85%, the company benefited from rise in operating profit
by 18% rise and other income 50% to Rs 4.31 crore, and net interest
income of Rs 8.12 crore as against net expense of Rs 2.16 crore in the
corresponding previous quarter. GCPL’s domestic sales of soap
increased 46% to Rs 182.1 crore and hair colorant sales 20% to Rs 69.3
crore. Toiletries sales were Rs 14.6 crore and liquid detergents sales Rs
5.5 crore.
ITC Ltd.
o Net profit of ITC rose 10% to Rs 808.99 crore despite net sales falling 3%
to Rs 3927.41 crore in the quarter ended March 2009. Lower exports of
agri commodities consequent to adverse market conditions affected
turnover. But the company’s OPM inclined 454 bps to 33.1% due to
savings in input costs, leading to operating profit rising 13% to Rs
1298.31 crore. But after interest cost spiking 407% to Rs 13.68 crore and
provision for depreciation rising 19%, net profit rose to Rs 808.99 crore
in the quarter ended March 2009.
Dabur India Limited (Dabur)
o Dabur India, one of the oldest FMCG companies, is rapidly emerging as
a leading consumer goods manufacturer. Its growth story is pinned by
a robust business model, diversified product portfolio and execution
abilities.
o The company recently acquired 72% in Fem Care Pharma, a leading
player in the womenʹs skincare product market. This acquisition is
expected to be completed by June 2009. Traditionally a company with a
dominant presence in North India, making inroads into the southern
markets has been one of its recent initiatives. The southern region now
contributes 8‐10 % to total revenues. The company expects it to increase
this to 12% this fiscal.
o The companyʹs net sales have grown at a compounded annual growth
rate (CAGR) of 16% over the past five years to Rs 2805.4 crore in FY09.
During this period, net profits have grown at a CAGR of 30% to Rs
391.2 crore. Against this, the companyʹs dividend payouts have grown
at a lower CAGR of 27% during the corresponding period. The
company, on an average, pays out around half of its net profits as
dividend.
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Ghalla Bhansali Stock Brokers Pvt. Ltd.
20th July, 2009
Mahesh Babaria
maheshb@ghallabhansali.com
Mittal Dharod
mittald@ghallabhansali.com
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